Less than a week after an “multifaith coalition” of local religious leaders announced their plan to call on Sean Cardinal O’Malley, Archbishop of the Boston Catholic Archdiocese, and the other three Catholic bishops of Massachusetts to stop campaigning for a repeal of court-instituted homosexual marriage, Cardinal O’Malley appeared with Governor Mitt Romney and showed precisely no sign of backing down. The following is from Romney’s press release - dated June 28, 2006:

Appearing today with a broad array of religious, civic and political leaders, Governor Mitt Romney urged the Legislature and its leaders to bring the Amendment to a “fair vote” during the Constitutional Convention on July 12.

Standing today with Governor Romney in support of the Protection of Marriage Amendment, which would allow the voters of the Commonwealth to determine the definition of marriage in Massachusetts, were Cardinal Sean O’Malley, Archdiocese of Boston; Bishop George Coleman, Diocese of Fall River; Bishop Robert McManus, Diocese of Worcester; Dr. Roberto Miranda, Chairman, VoteOnMarriage.org; Kris Mineau, President, Massachusetts Family Institute; and a bi-partisan group of state legislators.

Having briefly met Cardinal O’Malley earlier this week during a completely unrelated event, I have to say I believe him to be a sincere, honorable and holy man - we are blessed to have him here in the Boston area. I am happy and pleased to see him standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Romney on this issue and I’m sure the gross mischaracterization of his and his fellow bishops’ position on the subject of homosexual marriage by this group had to be painful for him to hear.

In case you were wondering, the Globe article describes the “multifaith coalition” as follows:

The board of the Religious Coalition for the Freedom to Marry includes clergy from several liberal Christian and Jewish denominations and other faiths, including paganism.

We are, indeed, known by the company we keep.

Ryan Sager laments the development of what may be the next dominant swing group in the American electorate — the “WalMart voter” — and opines that such a development will be bad for the GOP and for small-government conservatism. Loosely defined, WalMart voters are working-class Middle Americans who like the military, dislike abortion, are ambivalent about taxes, and prefer a government that maintains social programs like education and Social Security. Sager fears that, with both parties trying to woo this government-friendly voting bloc, the incentive to trim government becomes non-existent. The solution, says Sager, is for the GOP to abandon the WalMart types and form a new governing coalition by replacing them with, we can infer, upscale urbanites who would presumably be far more amenable to a small government agenda.

As a twentysomething technocrat myself living in a major urban area, I have no qualms with reaching out to the cubicle-dwellers who are now an instrumental part of the modern post-industrial economy. What I do have a problem with is the notion that the GOP should reject the voting bloc that Sager has defined as the WalMart voters. To find out why, read on. (more…)

So far, the 2008 GOP field has only one person that can truly be considered a “So-Con” (Social Conservative) candidate - Sam Brownback.

It appears that part of Mitt Romney’s 2008 strategy is to increase that total to at least two.

Governor Romney appeared on The 700 Club Monday, a prime spot to woo those Evangelical voters he will need to capture the Republican nomination. Not suprisingly, it appears things went well:

In an in-depth interview on the show, which is targeted at fundamentalist and some evangelical Christians, Romney solemnly recalled being falsely pronounced dead at age 21 by French police after the car he was driving was struck head-on by a drunken driver. Romney, who was on a Mormon mission, had four fellow missionaries in the car, one of whom was killed.

“Turning around that near-death experience is a theme that has followed him through much of his life. Just when it appears all is lost, he’s able to find an answer,” Christian Broadcasting Network host David Brody said of Romney in the segment, which aired yesterday on the “700 Club” and ABC’s Family Channel.

Brody told the Herald the network targeted Romney for its first profile of possible 2008 presidential candidates in part because of the Mormon issue.

“People said, ??Well, gee, can a Mormon win here in a state that’s, what, 50 to 55 percent Catholic?” Romney said, referring to Massachusetts. “Well, the answer is yes.”

He added, “Could an actor who’d been divorced win as president? Yes. Ronald Reagan was able to do that.”

Romney has also vocally endorsed Massachusettes upcoming Constitutional Convention, which will attempt to ammend the State Constitution to prohibit Gay Marriage.

Just two weeks before lawmakers resume a Constitutional Convention to vote on a proposed ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage, Gov. Mitt Romney will stand with the supporters of the measure to call on the Legislature to back it.

Romney will join petition backers in a State House press event today to urge the Legislature to pass the Protection of Marriage Amendment when the Constitutional Convention reconvenes July 12, authorizing a 2008 ballot question asking voters to define marriage as between one man and one woman.

“Gov. Mitt Romney has supported this amendment from the moment of its origination,” said Kris Mineau, president of the Massachusetts Family Institute and spokesman for amendment sponsor VoteOnMarriage.org.

These are further examples of why Romney is such a serious threat to the perceived frontrunners of McCain, Giuliani, and Allen. Governor Romney knows he main weakness is Evangelical voters in the GOP primaries being afraid to pull the lever for a Mormon candidate. By putting himself on the frontline of the Culture War, he gains insider status with these very voters.

Three days after Zogby released their Virginia Senate poll showing George Allen leading Jim Webb by only 5 points - 49% to 44%, Survey USA has released their latest poll showing Allen leading Webb by a whopping 56% to 37%.

This is a prime example of why Zogby’s internet polls will not be reported in and of themselves on this site. No other poll has this race within double digits. The fact remains- internet polling is just not yet a reliable predictor or indicator of public opinion.

Hat tip: Hotline

…Nothing tops having your blog mentioned by name in The Hotline, as Race 4 2008’s own Rudyblogger had happen with his own personal site, Guilianiblog on Sunday.

BTW RB, that was a very cheap shot they took mentioning the McCain ads since you have no control over what ads Google places on your site.

However, there is no such thing as bad publicity…

From David Sanders of the Arkansas News Bureau:

One writer who posts on Red State.com, a conservative blog, dubbed Mike Huckabee “one of the most underrated of all aspirants to the 2008 GOP nomination.” The blogger went on to say that Huckabee’s “center-right” approach helps him fit the “mold of one who wins Presidential elections in the United States.”

That diarest would be none other than Yours Truly….

The original Red State diary can be found here.

Most of the internet is opinion, while I usually try to tie my articles to news of the day or other articles of interest. For this, my first post here, if you will indulge me, I am going to rely entirely upon my own opinion.

I strongly believe in the great Ronald Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment, “Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.” While I have no problem pointing out policy differences I might have with various candidates, it is my firm belief that those differences need to be articulated in civil terms. Invectives and personal attacks, such a mainstay of this entire medium, must be avoided. In a medium where nothing is ever lost??where comments made years before can be brought forth in evidence, the utmost care must be taken to provide our adversaries as little ammunition as possible.

An attack is an attack is an attack!

There is nothing sadder, to my way of thinking, than the acrimonious primary contest in which candidates from our party beat each other up, arming their opponent in the general election with statements made by other Republicans. Who can ever forget the “Voodoo Economics” comment made by candidate George H W Bush during the 1980 campaign against candidate Ronald Reagan. The left still pummels us today with that phrase, when ever supply-side economics is mentioned.

In a similar light, invectives aimed at candidates with whom we have policy differences, expressed on the internet, will come back at us from the left, our own words used against us. Why should we arm our opponents? Let the left find its own attacks, we need not arm them by offering our own.

Strong passionate and partisan support for our own candidate is a part of politics. A positive agenda, articulating our candidate’s strengths and positions, and civilly pointing out how those positions differ between candidates, is also an important part of the body politic.

Mud-slinging, invectives and personal attack, unfortunately are also a part of the body politic, a part of which we dare not indulge when discussing our own.

We all hope to field candidates with strong visions for the future. It is important though, not to saddle those candidates with a past of our own making, filled with mud slung indiscriminately by our own partisans.

A preview of things to come?

Click for full size.

This is from a Weekly Standard article on the McCain vs. Romney showdown in Michigan, a piece that nearly meets First Responder criteria for ignoring the central fact of the ‘08 race: Rudy’s frontrunner status.

Crowning the page is an enticing ad for Giuliani’s Solutions America web site (on NRO, the ad is said to have generated the shocking idea that Rudy might run in ‘08). Below and to the right you’ll see an ad for McCain and his months-old book. We can speculate all day long of course, but I doubt this is a coincidence.

In recent months browsing the Weekly Standard online or NRO, I have yet to come across an ad for Straight Talk America. But Rudy starts making presidential noises with an online ad buy on several conservative websites, and all of a sudden, McCain ads start popping up.

There’s no way of knowing for sure who’s ad was up first, but we’ve seen this kind of thing before. When Jim Nussle’s campaign for governor send out a glowing email on Rudy’s trip to Iowa, Straight Talk America countered within a week with a McCain fundraising email to the same list.

So, this begs the question. If McCain’s people aren’t worried about Rudy and bluster that Rudy “wouldn’t get out of the gate,” why are they seemingly so intent on copying his every move with this new form of Presidential cyber-stalking?

The people advising McCain aren’t dumb. They understand the serious threat Giuliani poses, and realize that Rudy’s entry into the race could well be a campaign-ender for them.

From the Des Moines Register:

At least a half-dozen possible presidential campaign staffs have begun taking shape in Iowa, more than a year and a half before Iowans launch the 2008 nominating season and despite no formal announcements by any of the many White House prospects.

Although would-be candidates began tagging Iowa soil within months of the 2004 election, their political action committees have hired advisers and operatives in the lead-off caucus state, the clearest sign of how competitive the 2008 nominating campaigns are expected to be.

“It’s interesting how truly early this has started,” said David Kochel, an Iowa strategist helping Republican Mitt Romney, Massachusetts’ governor and a possible candidate for president. “There’s a good context for everyone to be here. It benefits the party to have interest in these potential candidates, and it’s meaningful and helpful to races in Iowa.”

Romney and fellow Republican Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and George Pataki of New York have at least three staff members each working to organize their activities in Iowa. Republican John McCain’s committee also has at least one staffer in Iowa, giving new evidence to the notion that the Arizona senator has rethought his 2000 campaign strategy of bypassing Iowa.

Thanks to BSR of the excellent Mike Huckabee President 2008 blog for the tip. Please head over to BSR’s awesome site and take a look around.From the Krusty Konservative:

Karl Rove has penned a column for the latest issue of TIME illustrating the virtues of a leader like Teddy Roosevelt. This isn’t surprising. Rove, after all, is a political history buff who believes that GWB is the contemporary political equivalent of William McKinley, the Republican president who preceded TR. Consistent with this reading of history — one with which I agree — the next logical step in institutional GOP dominance is a leader who can bring the country together and end the red/blue divide, much as TR was able to pull in the wavering western states that had never quite been able to decide between McKinley and his two-time opponent, William Jennings Bryan. TR’s 1904 election saw the collapse of the Democratic Party for the next two and a half decades as the west joined the north and the east to form a solid Republican majority, leaving only the south to the Democrats. A modern TR would presumably complete the GOP transformation of Middle America, producing the 3-4 percent swing in the American electorate necessary for the GOP to win back Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon, giving Republicans a total of 37 states and 355 electoral votes on election day 2008.

But the desire for a new TR is about more than numbers. Otherwise, any candidate with the right demographic appeal could win over the specific voting blocs necessary for the aforementioned victory. No, TR-craze isn’t only about electoral strategy; it’s also about the periodic national need for a president who embodies all the qualities Rove speaks of: leadership, character, big ideas, and the ability to inspire a nation.

Not everyone agrees with Mr. Rove’s assessment though. To find out why, read on. (more…)

Now that’s something you don’t see everyday… Courtesy of The Iowa Caucus Report 2008:

The Iowa Republican Convention was held over June 16 & 17 in Des Moines, Iowa. Four prospective ‘08 candidates Gov. Romney, Sen. Allen, Gov. Pataki, and Sen. Brownback made an appearance. Romney received a warm response from a standing room only crowd of about 400 people on Saturday morning. There was a table in the vendors section promoting a “Draft McCain ‘08″ movement, that appeared to be drawing little response from the delegates.

From the Weekly Standard:

WHEN POLITICAL HANDICAPPERS START LAYING ODDS on a presidential election, the conversation inevitably turns to Iowa and New Hampshire. Their status as the first caucus and primary states remains critical, but as media scrutiny has amplified their importance, both have morphed into a kind of Heisenberg fishbowl. Otherwise humble locals, constantly harassed by marauding network TV crews to name their candidate, sometimes retort, “I don’t know. I haven’t met him yet.”

It’s no surprise political prognosticators are starting to look elsewhere for early clues about the race in 2008. Michigan’s status as an important early primary state has been overlooked–until now. The Democratic National Committee is currently considering moving its Michigan primary to occur in between Iowa and New Hampshire.

And Republicans have taken notice of the battleground state as well. As Michigan State Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis told the Detroit Free Press in February, “We’re much more representative of the country than either Iowa or New Hampshire. Anyone emerging out of Michigan as a winner will have a clearer picture of how viable a candidate they are.” Adds Michigan political consultant Craig Ruff, “It’s the first state with a significant industrial base to vote, so a lot of the candidates view us as kind of a bellwether.”

In fact, as Republican insiders and political consultants break out the laminated maps and dry erase markers, it’s becoming clear that the entire Republican nomination strategy may come to hinge on the battle in Michigan.

Although this is a must read 2008 article, it has one critical flaw: it assumes Rudy Giuliani is not running; and all of Rudy’s actions in the past two-months point to him running in 2008.

One other small quibble I have with this article is the assumption that a GOP candidate can lose the South Carolina Primary and still be in the running. No modern Republican candidate has ever lost the Palmetto State and gone on to win the GOP nomination; and I would not bet otherwise in 2008.

If I were John Weaver, or Mark McKinnon, or Terry Nelson, I would have the Senator focus on this type of issue (and avoid immigration, the environment, etc…) until around the middle of 2008:

McCain Denounces Republicans’ Spending

Republicans intent on safeguarding power in Washington have drifted from the values of the Reagan presidency and ushered in an era of reckless spending and government growth that threatens to drive them from office, U.S. Sen. John McCain said in prepared remarks Friday.

“Why has our party, the party of small government, lately adopted the practices of our opponents who believe the bigger the government the better? I’m afraid it’s because at times we value our incumbency more than our principles,” the Arizona Republican said in a speech to be delivered at the Regan Presidential Library.

We came to office to reduce the size of government. Lately, we have increased the size of government in order to stay in office,” McCain said. “Soon, if we don’t remember what we were elected to do, we will lose both our principles and our office and we will leave as part of our legacy a mountain of debt and bankrupt entitlement programs that our children’s grandchildren will be suffering from.”

Every now and then, a 2008 poll slips through the collective cracks of political junkies everywhere. Thankfully, nothing gets past the good folks at Wikipedia, not even this obscure poll by the American Polling Research Institute that contains some very tasty nuggets with regard to 2008. Unfortunately, I can’t find the actual poll anywhere else on the Web, so I’m unable to dissect the internals. What we do know is this: Rudy, Condi, and McCain would all defeat Hillary Rodham in the general election.

The matchups are as follows:

Condi: 53%; Hillary: 47%

Rudy: 49%; Hillary 40%

McCain: 46%; Hillary: 42%

Newt: 40%; Hillary: 45%

Romney: 39%; Hillary: 48%

Condi also beats Edwards by 5 points. A couple of observations about this poll are below the fold.

(more…)

Harris Interactive/CNN Poll June, 2006:

Giuliani More Popular Than Democrats in U.S.

Many adults in the United States could support Republican Rudy Giuliani in a presidential election, according to a poll by Harris Interactive released by CNN. 64 per cent of respondents would definitely vote for, or consider voting for, the former New York City mayor in the 2008 ballot.

Republican Arizona senator John McCain also garnered a high level of backing, with 60 per cent. Conversely, 63 per cent of respondents say they would definitely not vote for current Florida governor Jeb Bush.

Three prospective Democratic nominees rank significantly lower in the public’s view. 48 per cent of respondents would not vote for former vice-president Al Gore in a presidential election, and 47 per cent of respondents feel the same way about both New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Massachusetts senator John Kerry

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was back in the Upstate of South Carolina this week for a primary election runoff rally and was very impressive in his determination to make national security an issue with which he and the GOP can pound the Democrats in the post-Bush era. Romney told stories from his recent visit to Iraq and Afghanistan and was generally optimistic about the war and the leadership of President George W. Bush. He left no doubt that he would continue an aggressive war against islamofacism and would not revert back to the Clinton-era law enforcement approach to terrorism.

Mitt was also impressive on the issues of family values, vouchers for school choice and his general optimistic can do approach that is somewhat reminiscent of The Gipper.

He is winning over a following in the Greenville-Spartanburg area despite questions concerning whether evangelicals would support a Mormon candidate.

The Upstate of South Carolina, nestled in the Piedmont foothills of the Appalachian mountains is often called the “buckle” of Bible Belt mainly due to the obsession of the Drive-by Media with the location of Bob Jones University in Greenville and its previous policy against inter-racial dating on campus, as well as its theological positions concerning the Roman Catholic church.

The Upstate can fairly be called the “buckle” but not due to that small school. Rather, the region is dominated by Southern Baptists, other evangelicals, and conservative wings of mainline protestant denominations many of whom also have held critical views of the Catholic Church on theological doctrine.

Such views have softened over the years as more catholics moved into the state and fellow Christians have emphasized their common ground, and especially their compatible views on moral issues and family values, especially with regard to abortion.

But the Protestant-Catholic theological divide was near its apex in 1960, when that fact did not prevent John F. Kennedy from winning the state and several other Southern states. This also despite JFK’s famous telephone call to Coretta Scott King while her husband languished in a Birmingham, Alabama jail.

That history, coupled with the pre-eminence of moral values issues within the GOP and the identification of Mormons as often living virtuous lives that, as one baptist preacher noted, “are more Baptist that most Baptists in the pews!”

I do know some evangelicals that balk at voting for a non-Christian for president mainly due to a fear of the influence the office of the President could have on people’s spiritual choices. But I don’t know many that openly say that.

I don’t fear the “cult” label since that term is mainly associated with extreme behavior rather than the more technical definitions related to religious doctrine and since everyone will be able to clearly see that Romney is a regular guy.

The main thing that Romney and any other GOP nominee would have in the general election is an opponent from a democrat party that does not share their values.

Within the GOP, I think Romney can overcome the Mormon issue with his record of accomplishment and competence, shared values, strong conservative record in the liberal lion’s den of the People’s Republic of Massachusetts and creative ideas on education, health care and the economy.

more later…

That is a 10 point improvement over Rasmussen’s previous February Poll:

“In the wake of his June 13 primary win over Harris Miller, former Navy secretary James Webb (D) has added eleven percentage points to his support in a match-up with incumbent Senator George Allen (R).

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of the Virginia race for U.S. Senate shows Allen leading Webb 51% to 41%.

In our previous poll, the incumbent led 50% to 30%. In early February,
soon after announcing his candidacy, Webb had lagged by only twelve percentage points, but Allen soon widened the gap.

Webb-who actually endorsed Allen in 2000-is a former Republican who left the GOP because of the war in Iraq. He appealed to so-called Reagan Democrats to handily win the nomination. A victory by Miller would have given voters a more standard Democratic alternative.”

Allen does maintain an excellent favorability rating of 62%, meaning that he should hold this seat barring any unforeseen developments.

Allen probably needs to beat Webb by a larger margin than he actually will for his 2008 prospects not to suffer somewhat. Anything less than a solid 5 percent victory in November will likely cause Race 4 2008 drop him in our Power Rankings.

However, like I have mentioned in a previous post; if Allen beats Webb by a 8-10 percent margin, the sky is the limit for both himself and superstar-in-waiting Dick Wadhams.

From Dr. Larry M. Bartels, “Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice“:

“By 1980 I was ready to begin (working on this book) again, and I remember being delighted as well as provoked when three different friends-all reasonably sophisticated liberal Democrats-began to talk enthusiatically about George (H.W.) Bush in the weeks following his dramatic emergence in the 1980 Iowa Republican Caucuses”

By 1992 however, these very liberals, and perhaps many of their brethren, may have been decrying the forty-first President’s “fascist New World Order”.

By 2008, Rudy Giuliani will have been in the private sector for over seven-years. It will be nearly two-years for Mitt Romney. These are eternities in American electoral politics.

Keep this in mind the next time that someone declares that a Northeastern Republican with liberal social views will never win the GOP nomination for President.

The discussion below got me thinking: just which of these supposed Democratic behemoths would be easier for Republicans to defeat in the ‘08 general? So, fellow Republicans, who would you rather face in two years: Madame Hillary or Prince Al?

Just for the record, I’d have to put myself in the Hillary camp. Now, I can appreciate the similarities between Gore and other multiple-time presidential losers like William Jennings Bryan, Tom Dewey, Adlai Stevenson, etc. But there’s a part of me that suspects — and this is based more on a gut feeling than anything — that Hillary would have a hard time winning a lot of the middle-aged, middle-class and working-class men in the upper midwest that went for Gore and Kerry in the last two elections. And given how few votes Republicans need to pick up in states like Michigan and Minnesota to turn them red, and how many electoral votes those states have, I suspect we’d be getting the better deal with a Hillary nomination.

Put more simply, I think Gore starts where he left off in 2000, with about 20 states that he could win against a generic Republican; I think Hillary starts off with far fewer states than that. But I could be wrong.

(I am one of those rarest of creatures. I actually believe Giuliani is running, that he is THE frontrunner, and my other blog is aptly titled Giuliani Blog. My analysis is not without its biases — whose is? Yet I believe that regardless of which candidate we support, 2008 will be a banner year for the blogosphere. I see the media get it wrong on 2008 everyday, and not just at my guy’s expense. I’m proud to be joining this fine group of analysts who have a better understanding of how Republican politics works than the MSM ever will. Thanks to Kavon and the team for extending this great opportunity. My first post follows.)

When even Chris Cillizza jumps about the “Rudy’s running” bandwagon, you know he’s made some headway. But the Hotline remains skeptical. Here’s what they have to say about their pick of the Rudy/Newt in a combo #4 slot:

As the No. 1 and No. 3 in most primary surveys, we feel the need to include them as a combination candidate. If either runs, he is automatically top five material, so why ignore it? Until Giuliani hosts an event featuring fewer than 200 people in an early primary state, we’ll keep our powder dry. He’s testing “center of the party, center of the country”-type themes. But he has yet to convince us that, come November, Republicans will hunger for him — which can go a long way in papering over problems with his ideology.

The Hotline’s position is this: The Republican base, fresh from a whipping in the midterms, will say thanks but no thanks to Rudy, and then turn to McCain in desperation. In their McCain analysis, Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder write:

The current conundrum is that he’s not with the party’s activist base on immigration. . So we don’t expect him to make substantial headway with those folks until after the midterms, when Republicans may well be hungry for a winner.

If this isn’t evidence that these two are in the tank for McCain, I don’t know what is. Virtually every major poll that has studied the question shows Republican primary voters hungrier for Rudy than McCain. More importantly (because this is more of a leading indicator of “smart money” support), Giuliani seems to be building up a clear electability advantage over McCain, whose ratings with Democrats and independents have been plummeting. Rudy gives conservative activists a safe and guilt-free alternative to the hated John McCain.

Plus, has the Hotline thought of this: Screwing your base in an off-year is one thing, but the defeat of the immigration bill virtually assures the subject will come up again next year. How does McCain survive leading a floor debate on immigration in the midst of his Iowa Caucus campaign?

I’m surprised that so little hay (yes, hay) has been made of possibly the only scientific poll of the 2008 Democratic field to date showing Hillary Clinton actually losing. A poll of likely Iowa caucus goers shows 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards ahead of Clinton by a slim margin. This result surprises me to some extent, and I will stick to my working theory that the race for the Democratic nomination will involve three significant candidates: Hillary as the establishment candidate, someone like Feingold as the Kossite candidate, and a Warner or a Bayh as the electable red-state candidate. I’m not sure there’s room for Edwards in a race like that, as the former North Carolina senator really has no natural constituency. Does he run to Hillary’s right? To her left? Does anyone really care?

I also think a Gore run has the potential to blow up the field and create a Hillary/Gore clash of the titans.

Thoughts?

Strategic Vision MI, June 16-18 2006

For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)

John McCain 39%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Mitt Romney 15%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Allen 3%
Bill Frist 3%
George Pataki 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

McCain jumps to 48% and Romney to 19% if Giuliani is excluded.

Strategic Vision NJ, June 16-18 2006

For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)

Rudy Giuliani 45%
John McCain 32%
Mitt Romney 4%
Newt Gingrich 3%
George Pataki 2%
Bill Frist 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Allen 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 9%

McCain leads at 43% to Newt Gingrich’s 7% if Giuliani is excluded.

The Hill has an interesting article regarding the snapping up of 2008 related domain names.

With little more than two years until the 2008 presidential election, cybersquatters are prepped for the next presidential race. Many of the political domain names have been bought as investments with the intention of being sold to the potential presidential campaigns. Other buyers acquired the Web addresses to post endorsements or bash the presidential hopefuls. Either way, the cyberbrigade has hit almost all the presidential hopefuls.

Tom Vilsack, Democratic governor of Iowa, does not own tomvilsack.com. The owner, Eli, who did not want his full name to be published, has had the site for eight years but has not had any offers and would only sell the site to Vilsack, if the governor is interested. He is planning on making money off of Google advertisements ‘ which could generate $300 to $1,000 a month if it were a popular site, he said.

On second thought… Maybe I’ll just keep my $.99.

For my first post, I would like to set the stage for our ongoing discussion of the coming presidential election with some little known but highly important political history. In order to do so, I will refer to a very timely column by James Traub in the New York Times regarding the long-held belief by Karl Rove that GWB is a contemporary President McKinley. Understanding the Bush/McKinley parallel will illuminate the reader’s understanding of what is likely to happen in the coming presidential election, and in the years ahead.

Please be sure to read on. (more…)

Greetings, Race 4 2008! I bring you on this day news from the People’s Republic of Massachusetts - that our current Governor, he of the perfect hair and teeth, and erstwhile candidate for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination has decided he’s had enough of illegal aliens (I’m still allowed to call them that, right?) running amok in the Commonwealth:

Governor Mitt Romney is seeking an agreement with federal authorities that would allow Massachusetts state troopers to arrest undocumented immigrants for being in the country illegally.

Oh, please do read on…

(more…)

From the Kansas City Infozine:

You know commencement season has morphed into election season when Massachusettes Gov. Mitt Romney (R) flies to Coe College in Iowa.

Perhaps no one has racked up the frequent flyer miles in 2006 like John McCain. His grueling travel schedule should be enough to quell any concerns raised about his age.

It’s easier to list the states that he has not traveled to than those he has already visited. He could practically claim residence in the critical primary state of South Carolina.

Let’s take a look at a week on the Straight Talk Express:

Wednesday, June 21st: Reception honoring Congressman Tom Davis in Virginia

Friday, June 21st: Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Forum in California

Monday, June 26th: Michigan State Republican Party Fundraiser in Rochester, MI

Thursday, June 29th: South Carolina State GOP 2006 Victory Party in Columbia, SC

Like him or despise him, it’s hard to deny that McCain’s strategy for victory in 2008 is clearly the best formulated of any ‘08 candidate. Namely, hire the best and brightest from Bush/Cheney ‘04 (McKinnon and Nelson), win the backing of the Bush money men (Loeffler), and campaign in ‘06 for the officeholders that will owe you in ‘08.

However, the most diffiicult challenge still lays ahead: winning over the GOP primary voters who he has infuriated for the past 8 years.

His strategy appears to be to aggressively engage Allen:

Democratic nominee James Webb on Monday challenged Sen. George Allen to a series of debates to address the war in Iraq, U.S. national security policies, illegal immigration and the disparity between wealthy and poor Americans.

“Virginia’s voters are sophisticated and knowledgeable and they expect and deserve a discussion about issues,” Webb’s campaign manager, Jessica Vanden Berg, wrote in a letter to Allen’s campaign manager, Dick Wadhams. “We should not insult them or underestimate them by avoiding the tough questions.”

Webb has said the Iraq war is one of many Bush administration missteps that have left voters disgruntled, and he thinks so-called “Reagan Democrats” — moderate, middle-class and largely rural whites — will return to the Democratic Party this fall.

A Vietman war hero and former Reagan Navy secretary, Webb broke with the Republicans over the Iraq war and is a key player in Democrats’ fall strategy to win the six seats necessary to take over the Senate.

Allen, a former governor, is seeking his second term and looking at a White House bid in 2008.

Webb’s campaign proposed that the candidates appear in five debates, one each in July, August, September, October and November.

It will be interesting to see if this race turns out to be as close as the pundits seem to think it will. This will also be a great test of up and coming Republican player Dick Wadhams. If Allen wins comfortably in November, the sky is the limit for both of them.

Allen, Brownback, Pataki, and Romney appeared this weekend at Iowa’s state Republican convention:

Four Republicans considering running for president in 2008 courted activists Saturday and predicted GOP success in the November elections despite the party’s sagging support in polls.

“The theme is we are right on the issues, not just for Iowa but for the country,” said New York Gov. George Pataki. “I understand what the experts are saying, but if we stick to Republican principles, we will succeed.”

Also at the Iowa Republican convention, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback said: “The Democrats want this election to be a referendum election. But the best thing we can do for the Iowa Republican Party is show that this is not a referendum. It’s a choice.”

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Virginia Sen. George Allen joined them at the convention attended by nearly 2,000 people. Aides to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee were there, too.

The event is the traditional kickoff of the fall campaign.

“It’s never been this early,” said Iowa’s Republican chairman, Ray Hoffman. “I think it’s a positive for our state.” He said the attention from presidential candidates will bring money and organizational expertise to local candidates.

This will likely be the last appearence for George Allen in Iowa as he gears up to face Jim Webb for his Senate seat this November.