I’m not sure how it can be seen as anything other than great news for Giuliani.? A few points.

First, of course it’s a name recognition poll.? But name recognition doesn’t go both ways.? Everyone’s heard of McCain and Giuliani.? Everyone’s had the opportunity to come to a relatively fully-informed verdict on each of them.? As such, the votes they got in Iowa are likely the votes they’re gonna get.? Both likely have near-perfect name-recognition, and with that, 30 percent of likely Iowa caucus attendees have selected Giuliani as their first choice among the multi-candidate field, while about 18 percent have selected McCain.? That leaves about half of Iowa voters with a first choice of someone other than Rudy or McCain, but since most voters don’t refresh “Race42008″ several times per hour the way most of us do, about 60 percent of the half of Iowans who prefer someone other than Rudy or McCain are undecided as to exactly which candidate will earn their vote.? That’s about 30 percent of the total number of voters, and even?if that entire bloc decided to embrace a single candidate, Rudy would still come?in second?at worst in culturally conservative Iowa.? So while only being the first choice of a third of Republicans may not seem like much at first glance, it means everything in a multi-candidate field, and Iowa is exactly that.

Secondly, Kathryn Jean Lopez over on National Review’s The Corner?today is freaking out about the results, likely due to her not-so-secret support for Romney.? Her argument seems to be that once Iowans discover Rudy’s super secret positions on abortion, etc., it’ll be over for the Mayor.

I’ve never really gotten the logic in this argument, as it’s always seemed to me that if there’s anything the average voter knows about Rudy, it’s that he’s a pro-choice Republican with a New York personal life.? That and his reputation for 9/11 and toughness seem to be what he’s universally known for.? Think about it this way: how many columns or articles have you read on Giuliani over the past five — no, fifteen — years that didn’t make reference to his positions on key social issues?? Conversely, how often has the MSM reported the fact that Rudy cut taxes in New York, or that he reformed welfare, or that he eliminated government waste?? If anything, learning more about Giuliani’s record will further endear Republicans to him, not the other way around.

Third, with Allen either on the way to defeat this fall or a razor-thin victory that will preclude any presidential hopes, and with Newt non-committal about running, absent some dark horse entry into the race next year, Romney is probably best positioned to take most of those undecideds in Iowa as the only socially conservative candidate with the money and organization to compete with Rudy and McCain there.? So if Iowa gives her three tickets to Romney, Rudy, and McCain, how will Granite Staters react?? Romney and Rudy will clearly have the momentum going out of Iowa, but Rudy is a more natural fit?for libertine New Hampshire, and it’s a state that Romney can’t afford to lose.? As one of our commenters noted the other day, it would be useful to obtain the history of Massachusetts politicians and the impact of New Hampshire on their chances, and that sounds like a good project for a post in the very near future.

To sum it all up, I think Rudy’s voters in Iowa are likely going to stick with the Mayor, as they’ve probably heard all of the Mayor’s negatives ad nauseum but haven’t yet been exposed to many of his positives.? I think 30 percent is more than enough to get a ticket out of Iowa, and based on Giuliani’s low expectations going into that race, coming in second or third in Iowa will be a far bigger win for Rudy than for anyone else.? I think this post-Iowa momentum almost guarantees a Rudy win in New Hampshire, which will both depress Romney’s chances due to his neighboring status as well as hurt McCain’s chances because of his high expectations in the Granite State.? At that point, if Rudy’s to be stopped, it will have to be in South Carolina, and I’m not sure who will still be around to take a stand at that point.? The problem for red-staters is that all of their potential champions are either sitting this one out (Sanford, Pawlenty, Barbour,?Jeb, etc.) OR aren’t registering with the grassroots (Huckabee) OR are deemed unelectable for one or more reasons (Newt, Allen, Frist, Brownback, Tancredo).? The result may be a choice that many hardcore conservatives would prefer not to make: Rudy, Romney, or McCain.