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R4′08er Republius, as well as reader/R4′08 commenter LJ and Eye on ‘08 blogger Soren Dayton, two of McCain’s biggest boosters in the blogosphere, reply to my organization argument. Dayton writes:
Now, GiulianiBlog has responded quite strongly to this whole line of argumentation. He argues, in essence, that all you need is issues, bio, and personality and organization doesn’t matter.
I think that’s a little strong. Operatives matter. Building a turnout operation matters. And having people vouch for you matters. That’s very clear.
That’s not quite the argument. You need an organization to get you past the finish line, but it’s one (albeit very important) element of the larger package. What’s unclear is how much organization matters in 2006, when only a small fraction of the staffers and fundraisers have committed, and none of these guys has really gotten a chance to prove their viability on the fundraising circuit and on the campaign trail. At this point in the 1996 or 2000 cycles, you could probably write stories about how much Phil Gramm, Lamar Alexander, and Steve Forbes were lapping the field in trips to Iowa and organizational commitments.
Organization is a force multiplier. But for it to work, there needs to be a force to multiply. If you have an army of good salespeople hawking a crappy product, people will see through it 100% of the time.
McCain’s brand affinity among the ony voters who matter — those who vote in Republican primaries — is close to zero. Rudy Giuliani’s is off the charts. McCain has furiously been trying to close the gap by building an organization — but the foundation is not sound. Note well the timing of the Dave Roederer announcement, in the works for months, which came after a terrible week for McCain and is designed as a warning to the grassroots that they’re about to get rolled. And don’t doubt for one second they’re more worried about Rudy than Mitt Romney.
The notion being propagated by both the McCain and Romney camps that Rudy isn’t a real threat, that he won’t run, etc. is B.S. spin designed to wave Rudy out of the race. They’ve all seem the numbers. They know that Rudy extends his lead and McCain becomes a non-factor when you drill down to motivated primary voters. Weaver & Co. know that their only hope is the Hillary fear factor, but that becomes a non-issue if Rudy runs. So their strategy is not to attack Rudy directly, since that probably wouldn’t work, but to pooh-pooh his chances to a willing media, to demoralize his inner circle, to make it seem like a wasted effort, to seem like they’re gobbling up 100% of political talent — without actually doing so. In truth, both McCain and Romney know that life becomes a lot easier for them without Rudy in the race.
It’s time someone called B.S. on all this. The anti-Rudy storyline isn’t analysis. It’s a strategy.
September 23rd, 2006 at 1:04 pm
RB,
There is no question that Rudy being in the race complicates things for all his opponents. In my mind, the one who gets hurt the most is Romney, because he is primarily running as a competent executive. McCain and the rest of the current biggies simply don’t hold a candle to Romney and Giuliani in this area.
There currently are only two others with any real national name recoginition who might lay claim to it, but they seem to be sitting this one out. Jeb Bush has been a successful Florida Governor by all accounts, but he knows the country will be leary of another Bush at the moment. More would be made of his name than his actual qualifications for the job. Condi Rice has all the appearances of being a good executive, though the jury is still out on that one. And she is making even fewer 2008 preparation moves than Rudy.
I, personally, would love for Giuliani to run. The more highly qualified candidates we can field, the better for the party and the country. But my desire to see him in the race is not blinding me to the fact that he is simply not laying much of a foundation for a 2008 run.
It is still somewhat early, I will grant you. Yes, he has made one or two visits to key states, and he has dropped a hint or two here and there. But while he has been busy chatting up the cheerleaders and enjoying the attention of the crowd, Romney and McCain are racing ahead and are well on their way to the first turn. Sooner or later he is going to have to actually start doing something about it, and it had better be more sooner than later.
Watching Rudy with his huge poll numbers and his lack of preparation towards 2008 reminds me of a scene in The Princess Bride. Fezzik, played by Andre the Giant, was squaring off with Lesley for a bare hands fight to the death. Fezzik says, “It’s not my fault I’m the biggest and the strongest. I don’t even exercise.”
He lost.
September 23rd, 2006 at 3:46 pm
Make that ‘Wesley’, not ‘Lesley’. My excuse is that I watched The Great Race last night, and its hero is named “The Great Lesley”. My bad.
September 23rd, 2006 at 7:17 pm
Good points. Giuliani can win this thing, there is no doubt.
I’m really impressed with this site. The fact that people have a pragmatic and realistic view of
these primaries is great. It is going to come down to four men; McCain, Giuliani, Romney and Gingrich.
I think he’ll start preparing his structure in April-May of next year. Once he starts to make his intentions half-clear, he is going to get a groundswell of public support, a plethora of volunteers and various (talented) specialists on board. What he is doing now, the whole political outsider/bypassing negative publicity, is quite ingenious.
Giuliani would be the dream candidate to work for, and I heard recently that the chief fundraiser for George W’s campaign in 2004 has joined his PAC.
He is spending a great deal of time watching how the electorate is acting and acuminating IOU’s for 2008.
September 25th, 2006 at 4:41 pm
I agree with Rudyblogger that it is not too late for Mayor Giuliania, plus other candidates like Newt Gingrich, to put successful 2008 organizations together.
What I had a hard time with is the Rudyblogger contention that the deep organizations of John McCain and Mitt Roney are somehow signs of weakness. Come on, that is an agenda driven comment of the same kind he is accusing the two McCain backers of making.