While this issue is certain to remain fluid for awhile, it may be interesting to note where things are headed in terms of the early presidential electoral calendar in 2008, though this is not intended to be a comprehensive, 50-state picture but rather an initial and brief look at key early dates as a benchmark that we can update and expand over time. But the fact remains that the likely calendar compression is such that both parties probably will have their nominees selected by March 4, 2008 at the rate dates are being selected for caucuses and primaries.

The more compressed the calendar becomes, the higher the premium on such aspects as fundraising, organization, name recognition, poll standing, and momentum for candidates. And interestingly, as of now, such electoral vote-rich states as Pennsylvania, Illinois, and California figure to be non-factors in the 2008 presidential nomination process based on their primary dates.

A few caveats. There always exists the legal tension between the major parties’ desire and perceived right to set the presidential caucus and primary calendar and that of the individual states for the same. Heretofore we have seen compromises worked out. But this tension is building to the point where litigation is becoming more and more likely. In addition, the two major parties can conceivably conduct caucuses or primaries on different dates for the same states, though that does not happen a lot.

And, finally, be reminded that the first presidential primay debate has been set for Republican candidates on May 15, 2007 at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina, sponsored by the South Carolina Republican Party.

With this in mind, the first 2008 foray into this area would be the new rule passed by the Democratic National Committee (that need not necessarily be followed by Republican Party in these states) this past August establishing the following schedule for their party:

January 14, 2008 - Iowa Caucuses

January 19, 2008 - Nevada Caucuses

January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire Primary

January 29, 2008 - South Carolina Primary

February 5, 2008 - Other Caucuses and Primaries May Begin to Follow Those Above

Other moves that have been made and are being contemplated for early 2008 include (in approximate chronological order):

South Carolina - The DNC has established their South Carolina primary date as January 29, 2008. The Republican Party of South Carolina, which pays for the statewide presidential primary, is committed to conducting the first GOP primary in the south in 2008 (and likes the idea of a Saturday primary to minimize costs), which would mean no later than February 2, 2008.

Alabama - Based on state statute the Alabama presidential primary will be held on February 5, 2008 for all parties.

Arkansas - Based on state statute the Arkansas presidential primary will be held on February 5, 2008 for all parties.

Delaware - Based on state statute the Delaware presidential primary will be held on February 5, 2008 for all parties.

Missouri - Based on state statute the Missouri presidential primary will be held on February 5, 2008 for all parties.

Oklahoma - Based on state statute the Oklahoma presidential primary will be held on February 5, 2008 for all parties.

North Dakota - Held their Democrat caucuses the first Tuesday in February in 2004, which would be February 5, 2008 this next presidential cycle.

New Jersey - Legislation is pending to move the New Jersey presidential primary to February 5, 2008 for all parties. Governor Corzine has said he is open to the idea.

Florida - The likely next Speaker of the House, Marco Rubio, was reportedly going to propose legislation to move the Florida presidential primary up to a position that was initially supposed to be seven days after the New Hampshire primary. But that would violate the new DNC rules. So this legislation instead may create movement for a Florida primary as early as February 5, 2008 for all parties.

Michigan - Michigan GOP state party chair Saul Anuzis had wanted to create an agreement with his DNC state counterpart to ask the state legislature to move this primary to the same date as South Carolina. But that would violate the new DNC rules. So this push may instead result in movement for a Michigan primary as early as February 5, 2008 for all parties. There is also talk of Michigan changing from an open to a closed primary.

North Carolina - Legislation is pending that would change North Carolina from a caucus to a primary state for purposes of presidential elector selection and establish a February 5, 2008 date for that primary for all parties.

Wild West Regional Primary - A Western States Presidential Primary Symposium was held yesterday in Salt Lake City in which a unified, early February 2008 primary date for the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada (on the Republican side), New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming was discussed.

Washington - Conducted their Democrat caucuses in the 2004 cycle in such a way that would correspond to February 9 in 2008.

Maine - Conducted their Democrat caucuses in the 2004 cycle in such a way that it would correspond to February 10 in 2008.

Louisiana - The state Republican Party has voted to ask the state legislature to move their presidential primary to the second Saturday in February (the 9th in 2008), unless that is Mardi Gras in which case it will be moved to the third Saturday in February (the 16th in 2008).

Tennessee - Based on state statute the Tennessee presidential primary is expected to be held on February 12, 2008 for all parties.

Virginia - Based on state statute the Virginia presidential primary is expected to be held on February 12, 2008 for all parties.

Wisconsin - Based on state statute the Wisconsin presidential primary is expected to be on February 19, 2008 for all parties.

Connecticut - Based on state statute the Connecticut presidential primary is expected be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Georgia - Based on state statute the Georgia presidential primary will be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Maryland - Based on state statute the Maryland presidential primary is expected be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Massachusetts - Based on state statute the Massachusetts presidential primary is expected be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Minnesota - Based on state statute the Minnesota precinct caucuses will be held on March 4, 2008, though both the Democrat and Republican state parties have encouraged the state legislature to move the caucuses to February 19, 2008 to coincide with the Wisconsin presidential primary and create a mini northern Super Tuesday.

Mississippi - Based on state statute the Mississippi presidential primary is expected to be held on March 4, 2008.

New York - Based on state statute the New York presidential primary will be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Ohio - Based on state statute the Ohio presidential primary is expected be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Rhode Island - Based on state statute the Rhode Island presidential primary will be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Texas - Based on state statute the Texas presidential primary is expected to be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Vermont - Based on state statute the Vermont presidential primary is expected be held on March 4, 2008 for all parties.

Pennsylvania - A gubernatorial task force has recommended changing state law to move their presidential primary to the first Tuesday in March for 2008 and 2012, which would correspond to March 4 in 2008. But as yet there has been no significant action on the recommendation by the Pennsylvania legislature.