Florida is considering moving their primary date to become one of the earliest in the nation, as well as moving up their Presidential Straw Poll:

Tired of playing second fiddle to the likes of Iowa and New Hampshire in picking presidential nominees, Florida Republicans are positioning the Sunshine state to play a potentially huge role in the 2008 presidential race.

Not only are state legislative leaders working on moving Florida’s primary to be one of the earliest in the country, but the state GOP is planning a straw vote convention for October 2007.

If the plan moves forward, next year the state would be crawling with Republican presidential contenders wooing 3,500 party activists in hopes of getting a big, early shot of momentum from America’s biggest battleground stateThe state GOP already has blocked hundreds of rooms in Orlando for the non-binding “Presidency IV” gathering Oct. 17-20, hired a consultant to organize it and briefed potential presidential candidates about an event that could cost the campaigns hundreds of thousands of dollars to organize for a strong showingThe results are officially meaningless, but they play a big role in the crucial expectations game - who does surprisingly well or unexpectedly poorly - and campaigns work feverishly to win over delegates.

But frontrunners don’t necessarily relish such events because they have the most to lose.

So Republicans are closely watching how Governor-elect Charlie Crist handles the “Presidency IV” idea. While Crist has not endorsed anyone, he is widely seen as an ally of Sen. John McCain, the presumed GOP frontrunner for 2008 and the only presidential prospect who endorsed Crist during his gubernatorial primary.

This move would have to be seen as benefiting Rudy the most, who at last count was leading McCain by over 20 points in the state.

This is one of the coolest ideas yet:

ABCPac Presidential Challenge

Because of you, ABCPac was able to raise almost $300,000 for Republican House and Senate candidates in the 2006 Election. In less than three months, ABCPac established itself as a one-stop resource for individuals to donate to Republican candidates for federal office. Now ABCPac is proud to introduce White House 2008 - Your Choice…Your Voice!

ABCPac is now soliciting contributions on behalf of candidates for President as well as prospective candidates for President. As candidates enter the race, ABCPac will forward contributions collected within 10 days after they create a candidate committee.

If, by April 1, 2008, any prospective candidate listed here has not become a candidate, ABCPac will divide the funds collected and distribute them to the national Committees to support Republican candidates

I wish I would have thought of this one!

An interesting new quote from Mark McKinnon, John McCain’s own top media dog who was Bush’s in 2004, about who the actual frontrunner of the 2008 presidential race currently is: “The polls speak for themselves,” says McKinnon.? “And the polls say that Rudy Giuliani is currently the frontrunner.”? While McKinnon is probably trying to keep McCain and his supporters on their toes so they don’t get?too complacent with all the belly-scratching the mainstream media is giving them, it is interesting to hear a major political expert go against the grain, even if it means downplaying the power of his own boss.? While the polls do seem to indicate that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner amongst the actual voters (with Rudy leading the GOP pack in every recent poll except for?one), the Giuliani camp must take a cue from the McCain camp in not getting too comfortable with their advantage, keeping in mind that Rudy’s lead in the polls is at this point tenuous.? There does, however, seem to be a slow but noticeable move, even amongst the media and beltway pundits, toward acknowledging that Rudy is indeed a, if not the, frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

NRO’s Contributing Editor backs up his claim with some very compelling evidence:

The oddest thing about the conventional wisdom may be its almost bulletproof imperviousness to the facts. An excellent example of this phenomenon is Arizona Senator John McCain’s oft-trumpeted status as frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination. Conversely, the cognoscenti titter at former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani as terminally liberal.

A new Quinnipiac University survey is just the latest in an almost unanimous array of polls that shows Giuliani, not McCain, heading the GOP’s 2008 parade.

The November 27 #quot;Feeling Thermometer#quot; from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute asked 1,623 registered voters to rate the warmth of national leaders from 0 -100. #quot;The higher the number, the warmer or more favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the number, the colder or less favorable.#quot; Among 20 top American leaders, Rudy Giuliani is rated No. 1 with a #quot;temperature#quot; of 64.2. McCain is third at 57.7. Giuliani’s standing among the 490 self-identified Republicans Quinnipiac surveyed is even more compelling. Republicans give Giuliani a very comfortable temperature of 71.7. That puts him just behind Rice (72.3) and Bush (72.1), neither of whom is expected to be on the ballot in 2008. Among those who might run, Giuliani is well ahead of McCain (62.2), Gingrich (58.9), and Romney (52.8). (Error margin for this subset: +/- 4.4 percent). Most fascinating is Giuliani’s performance among self-professed #quot;White evangelicals/Born-again Christians.#quot; Here again, among 439 of the study’s most socially conservative respondents, Giuliani is at the top of the heap. He scores 66.3, ahead of Rice (64.4), Bush (58.1), McCain (57.1), Gingrich (47.8), and Romney (46.4).

In other recent surveys, Giuliani also leads the way. Pollster Scott Rasmussen found Giuliani with 24 percent to 18 for Rice and 17 for McCain in a November 4 - 7 national survey of 1,050 Republicans and 203-GOP-leaning independents. With Rice excluded and her votes reallocated, #quot;Giuliani would top McCain 32 percent to 22 percent,” Rasmussen told me.

In Strategic Vision’s selected state-by-state surveys released November 6, Giuliani outpaced McCain by nine points in Georgia, 19 in Florida and Washington State, 22 in New Jersey, and 23 points in Pennsylvania. Romney rose no higher than third in these states. McCain only can point to Michigan as a state where he tops Giuliani ‘ specifically 33 percent to 25. The conventional wisdom further argues that Giuliani benefits from his high name ID in the wake of his universally covered and highly appreciated leadership on September 11. But Giuliani is not outshining a state senator here or a second-term House member there. McCain is widely known from coast to coast, as are Gingrich, Bush, and Rice. Giuliani easily outpolls the former speaker of the House of Representatives and the man who was runner-up for the 2000 GOP presidential nomination. Giuliani tops the current secretary of State and the president of the United States in general #quot;warmth#quot; and comes within 0.6 and 0.4 #quot;degrees#quot; of them in popularity among Republicans.

As for his alleged liberalism, Giuliani, to be sure, will face resistance from Republican primary voters who differ with him on abortion, gay marriage, and gun ownership. While Giuliani’s views on these issues eventually may gravitate to the right, he will address his potential critics with an enormous reservoir of goodwill, as Quinnipiac’s numbers show. Some have speculated that Giuliani’s numbers will fall once GOP voters across America learn that he favors civil unions, is pro-choice, and has called for greater gun regulations. Perhaps.

But his numbers could hold or even rise once Republicans outside Gotham learn that, as mayor, he cut the local tax burden by 19 percent, jettisoned racial and gender preferences for contracting (during his first month as mayor, no less), hunted deadbeat dads and made them pay their child support, implemented charter schools, promoted #quot;vouchers#quot; (always embracing that word), and hosed down seedy, crime-infested areas such as Times Square. It now is safe, literally, for Mary Poppins ‘ a new Disney musical that opened on 42nd Street, where pornographic films unspooled prior to Giuliani’s tenure.

Can you say, #quot;family values?#quot;

What we can today is that Giuliani currently outruns his rivals for the GOP nomination, even if most of the press corps’ eyes are too welded shut to notice. With the polls showing him ahead and the conventional wisdom dismissing his prospects, Rudolph W. Giuliani has achieved the impossible: He’s a front-running underdog.

My biggest complaint regarding 2008 analysis is the near constant meme of “Once GOP voters find out about Rudy’s past, his support will nosedive.” Charlie Cook is one of the biggest proponents of this theory, despite the fact that his own polling directly contradicts this conclusion (Cook conducted a poll where he specifically laid out all Rudy’s past social views and then asked his Republican supporters if they still supported him for president. The answer was a resounding yes.-See here).

It is also curious that these pundits never consider that opinions on Mitt Romney will change once his support of Abortion and Gay Rights pre-2002 are publicized by evangelical groups that have only just started on this project.

Stating that Rudy will lose support among the Republican rank-in-file once his past social views are known is an opinion, not a fact. What I would like to start seeing from these pundits is some empirical evidence to back up their claims. Mr. Murdock has laid his cards on the table, it’s time for the critics to show theirs.

Gamecock’s Analysis of Top Three 2008 Contenders’ Post-2006 Positioning as viewed from his Carolinas’ Roost (and Atlanta branch office)…with apologies to one of my favorites, Newt…

With apologies for my light R4′08 postings during my post Election Day 2006 period of mourning and substantive issue therapy, I offer a few observations on the present positioning of the contenders for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination in light of the GOP’s loss of majorities in both houses of Congress.

McCain appears to be positioning himself to be the “I told You so Hawk” in case the Democrats force the U.S. to retreat from Iraq, rather than trying to help America win the war. We would expect no more from the MSM’s favorite armchair CINC critic of every word, act and omission of the actual CINK leading our troops in harm’s way. McCain says everything and nothing. He distinguishes himself by saying we must win more often that anyone save the President, but then he tells us we won’t and can’t unless we fight it his way. He isn’t that much less of an emboldener of the enemy than many of the Bushlied Dems, especially given his advocacy for a terrorist bill of rights, including ACLU legal representation. I still haven’t actually met a Republican in SC , NC or GA that prefers McCain over any major contender, and given his liberal votes on taxes, free speech, terrorist’s rights, gang of 14, head up hardball’s butt, socialist view of inheritance rights, amnesty for the Nation of Mexico, and his mealy mouth attempts to oppose gay marriage while trying to fool liberals into thinking he doesn’t, I refuse to believe he can win the nomination. McCain’s condescending questioning (more troops, more troops, more troops) of our military leaders in Iraq, rather than thoughtful discussions intended to enlighten, convinces me that McCain cares more about McCain than whether we win this war, and when compared with other nominees on a stage rather than with Democrats on MSM shows, the contrast is not flattering for McCain.

Rudy Giuliani remains largely an unexplored candidate with respect to large swaths of policy issues, as well as possible skeletons in the closet, but he probably was a net-gainer from the 2006 GOP losses, given his outsider status. The thing that characterizes Rudy’s speeches and comments are that they seek primarily to support the President and the country, and not Rudy. For this, as well as his competence under fire on and after 9/11, including his refusal of the Saudi Prince’s anti-Israeli money, I respect him as a patriot. The mayor has a lot ahead in terms of past policy positions, statements and behavior that he must answer for before he can realistically have a chance to be the GOP nominee, but competence, guts and proper public conduct during war are not among them.

Mitt Romney has completed a sterling 2006 pre-pre-campaign from his wooing of South Carolina Republicans specifically and Evangelicals sceptical of his Mormon faith generally; to his championing of traditional marriage against a hyper-activist Massachusetts Supreme Court and Legislature to his health insurance as auto coverage via the tax code plan that operates outside government programs. Romney is better positioned to claim the Reagan mantle than any of the other major contenders, except for possibly Newt Gingrich, who has had nothing but kind words for Mitt, especially of late. Romney also has a sterling character, long marriage and post-Kennedy closet search revealing no skeletons. The MSM is curiously running every suspected polygamy case as major breaking news, but I predict that Romney will satisfy Evangelical (Republican) concerns about his faith by, while refusing to discuss theology, bonding with Evangelicals and Christians generally by recounting his personal faith in Christ. He also has a very compelling conversion story on abortion and embryonic stem cells in which he was shocked into reality when a scientist made the statement that he need not worry about the embryos since “they kill them within weeks.”

One of the main advantages that Romney and Giuliani have over McCain, is that they will not be required to cast votes in the bastion of watered-down stand-for-nothingness, U.S. Senate. McCain risks further alienating the GOP base WHEN, not if, he compromises with the new Democrat majority, especially in the amnesty for illegals even though the Fence is not being built as we speak bill. Moreover, Romney has an even greater advantage over McCain and Giuliani with fresh battles against Leftists in his deep blue state.

More on Gingrich as well as promising newcomers Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter and GC suggested Dark Horse, Tim Pawlenty, later this week.

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A civil/criminal trial lawyer for two decades in federal and state courts throughout the South and presently Vice-President of a multi-state real estate investment firm headquartered in Charlotte, N.C., Gamecock was a SC Democrat party activist, official and delegate for 20 years, until his June 2001 conservative epiphany that led him to leave the Jack Asses of the World’s Oldest political party to embrace the Elephants’ never forget Party of Lincoln and Ronaldus Magnus. You can read Gamecock’s outstanding personal blog at Townhall.com.

“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

…hurry up and make his “JFK Speech“:

Mitt Romney has said that if his Mormon faith becomes an issue in his race for the presidency, he will address it at length in a speech. Does he have space on his calendar tomorrow?

The press is writing about about his religion. Pollsters are asking about it, and GOP voters inevitably bring it up in any discussion of the 2008 candidates. Will his faith affect how he governs? Will it hurt his chances at winning the nomination?

…it’s time to clear a few things up. It’s not that Romney should come clean about his clean laundry’he should please stay quiet about that’but now is the time to improve on his current approach, which has largely been to make fun of misconceptions about Mormonism (”Take my wives, please” kinds of jokes.) If he doesn’t define what his religion means to him, others will do it for him’focusing on the most loopy aspects. Constant questions and endless press coverage will get in the way of his larger task of pitching himself as the only “true conservative” in the GOP race.

Romney has also got to move fast to stop the conventional wisdom from calcifying that a Mormon can’t get elected in the GOP. Romney’s faith is of particular concern to evangelical voters who make up the GOP’s key voting bloc’some of whom believe Romney belongs to a cult. Conservative columnist Robert Novak has said it will be the issue that keeps Romney from winning the nomination. A recent Rasmussen poll finds that 43 percent of respondents say they will never vote for a Mormon, and 51 percent of evangelicals say that.

Address the Mormon issue, and move on: That’s what the Romney camp hopes will happen when he gives his public speech. But talking about these issues in public will be tricky. First, it’s one thing to answer questions about Christ. It’s another to proclaim your faith in him at length and in public, if you consider your faith a largely private matter.

Romney and his advisers compare the speech he will give to John Kennedy’s appearance before the Houston Ministerial Association in which he addressed concerns about his Catholicism by talking about “an America where the separation of church and state is absolute.” Romney can’t say exactly that, since many of the supporters he’s courting think the doctrine of separation of church and state is not enshrined in the Constitution and has been used by liberals to take religion out of public life. Plus, he’s not asking that his faith not be an issue. He wants it to be an issue. He’s running on it, but he wants to be the one to draw the line marking where his faith ends.

Romney’s aides say he won’t be able to give the speech until he formally announces that he’s running for president. That won’t happen until early next year, because, among other things, the governor wants to spend Christmas with his family one last time before the insanity of a full campaign begins.

I am unconvinced that this speech is necessary. In fact, I would be worried about the perception of this speech as pandering.

Gov. Romney may be better served in this area by commenting as little on his faith as possible (”Taking the High Road” if you will) and waiting for his opponents or their supporters to attack him on religious grounds. That would allow Romney to inflict massive damage by proxy (a role that Hugh Hewitt, Laura Ingraham, and Michael Medved would be all too happy to assume).

Trying to replicate JFK’s speech is simply too blunt and clumsy a tool for this issue. Mitt would be better off letting his enemies destroy themselves.

Hugh Hewitt said on his nationally broadcast radio show yesterday that he believes the 2008 Republican presidential primary will come down to three candidates - Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain, and Governor Mitt Romney. I think Mr. Hewitt is one candidate short - Newt Gingrich will, in my opinion, be a serious GOP presidential candidate in 2008 who ranks up there will the above three in contesting for the nomination if based only on his name recognition, passion for debating public policy, and?force of personality?aside from any lack of early organizational?and fundraising prowess.

The departure of Senator Bill Frist from the Republican presidential contest may be a harbinger. Senator Frist had the ability - given his contacts, support, and fundraising network - to make some serious headway in 2008. But you have to wonder if the apparent coalescing of talent, funds, media scrutiny, and momentum behind the Big Four added to his list of reasons not to run (which would have included an arguably disappointing stint as Senate Majority Leader).

Could it be that the next potentially serious 2008 GOPer to drop out of the race will be Governor George Pataki, who has already lost staff in Iowa and?manifests only a fraction of the advantage other early organized candidates seem to be generating for their efforts?

Yes, there will be other Republican candidates in the 2008 race. But I see no reason to believe those other than Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will have the staying power to seriously compete for the nomination. And as the Big Four continue to devour most of the political oxygen in the GOP presidential holding room, it is likely that we will see other heretofore likely entrants bow out of the picture as only those interested in making a statement and conducting a longshot candidacy dare to challenge the?top of the 2008 Republican batting order.

The 2008 presidential campaign of Governor Mitt Romney is running full speed ahead. One report today in the Boston Globe reveals that Governor Romney will run his campaign out of a water-front builiding in Boston. Another report from the Washington Post indicates that the Governor Romney presidential campaign has just hired three national heavyweight talents to head up?their economic policy team. Finally, an article in The Clarion-Ledger reports on Governor Romney mining for support among evangelicals this past Tuesday in the Mississippi Bible Belt.

If there is a more well developed presidential campaign than Governor Romney’s at this juncture in the 2008 cycle, anywhere in the country, in any political party, then it has escaped my attention. If nothing else, Governor Romney’s managerial and planning skills are well in evidence with the impressive 2008 operation he is putting together and deploying.

Just as outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist today nixes any plans to run for the White House, former Virginia Governor and RNC Chair Jim Gilmore says he is now looking seriously at an ‘08 bid. ABC News reports:

Along with considering a White House run, Gilmore said he could run for the Senate in 2008 if Sen. John Warner (R-VA), the silver-haired ex-husband of Elizabeth Taylor, decides to retire. Gilmore said that he might also seek a return to the governor’s office in 2009 when Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is barred from seeking a consecutive term.

From Chris Cillizza:

Senate majority leader Bill Frist will not run for president in 2008, according to sources close to the politician.

Frist will put out a statement at 1 p.m. ET today confirming his decision, according to the source. His decision was first reported in Hotline’s On Call Blog . He will not immediately endorse any of the other candidates pursuing the race, the source said.

Frist’s departure frees up a number of money men who had signed on with him as well as key campaign talent, people like Alex Vogel, a longtime Frist adviser and former general counsel at the NRSC. Watch to see where these folks jump in the coming weeks for a sign of Frist’s endorsement intentions.

Update: Here is Sen. Frist’s statment, which according to AP will be his only comment on the decision:

“In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008.”

Thanks to R4′08 reader JayCee for the tip!

I know this has been a long time in coming, but I believe it was important to wait for the results of the midterm before making any drastic changes.

And drastic changes there are. No more George Allen-who once occupied the #3 position in these rankings. There have also been two additions in Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson.

So without further ado, here are the Race 4 2008 Power Rankings version 3.0:

1. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain (tie)

Rudy leads nearly every scientific and non-scientific poll of Republican voters when asked about 2008. Rudy also tops every poll of Republican voters when asked whether potential 2008 candidates are acceptable to them as a presidential nominee; and that support does not drop significantly even when they informed of his liberal social views. State-by-state polling shows Rudy to be ahead in the polls in every state except for NH, MI, and SC. The announcement of his exploratory committee cements his position here for the time being.

John McCain has the organization, the fame, the money, the allies, and the favors owed to him by fellow Republicans to keep him as a major force in the 2008 race. Since the midterm, the Arizona Maverick has seen his polling numbers increase to within the margin or error with Rudy. He is solidly ahead in the three early primary states of NH, MI, and SC (I was assured in private correspondence this week by a well known journalist that McCain is indeed solidly ahead in SC right now per internal candidate polling). However, it remains to be seen that when push comes to shove, GOP primary voters will indeed pull the lever for a candidate many of them simply don’t trust to lead their party or their country.

3 . Mitt Romney

I fully expect that the race will narrow into a 1A, 1B, and 1C race between Rudy, McCain, and Romney eventually. We are not there yet however.

As McCain has solidified his support among current Republican officeholders, Mitt seems to have run the field with the Republican Punditocracy (Hugh Hewitt, Michael Medved, Laura Ingraham) and the inside-the-beltway analysts.

We have yet to see that impact of that support in his polling numbers. However, it is still far too early to really hold that against him.

So many pundits have speculated on what will happen to Rudy’s numbers when the Republican rank-in-file find out about his past social views. However, hardly anyone acknowledges that Mitt will be the subject of targeted “swiftboatesque” campaigns to bring attention to his alleged changes of opinion on abortion and gay rights (groups in Michigan are already at work as we speak) as well. It remains to be seen how these efforts will effect Mitt’s nascent popularity.

Bottom line is that Romney is as well organized a candidate on either side of the aisle as you will find and has nowhere to go but up.

4. Newt Gingrich

Newt has recently announced that he is indeed interested in seeking the Republican nomination. However, his unorthodox plan of creating his own draft campaign based upon the principles of his book “Winning the Future” and waiting until Sept. 2007 to make a final decision has to make you wonder if he is in it for himself, or to play kingmaker. Of course, the Romney alliance rumors have been in full effect since this announcement. One has to wonder if keeping the nomination from John McCain is the primary goal.

5. Tommy Thompson

I’m sure this is the change that will cause the most controversy.

Thompson enters the Power Rankings at #5, which upon reflection is based more on projection than the current state of affairs. I do believe that Thompson is a sleeper candidate in the GOP field (which perhaps reflects more on the relative weakness of the GOP candidates as a whole more than anything.)

Thompson is perhaps the most popular politician in Wisconsin history (he could probably be elected Emperor there), having won an unheard of 4 terms. In 2000, Gov. Thompson left office to join the Bush Cabinet at HHS.

Tommy Thompson is a conservative without being an ideologue. He is very much in the mold of the Republican “Competent Executive” prototype in which Gov. Romney and Mayor Giuliani belong to in this field as well.

Republicans primary voters will like Thompson the more they find out about him. He is acceptable on the social issues (he holds the Frist position of being Pro-Life excepting stem cells), and is well known for his conservative triumphs in Welfare Reform (which became the model for the nation) and School Vouchers.

Thompson has been quite successful in the private sector and must be convinced that he will have the financial backing to make a serious run.

6. Mike Huckabee

Why did Gov. Huckabee fall from 4th to 6th? Mostly due to the fact that he has been in the headlines not for his organizational progress, but for “Gimmegate” (whether it’s fair or not).

It is still not too late for Gov. Huckabee, but the fact remains that Tommy Thompson is on the ground in Iowa looking to make hires while he is not.

7. & 8. Bill Frist and Sam Brownback

These two could be slipped into either spot. Frist has a solid organization with VOLPAC, however Brownback probably has more “‘mo’” due to his recent announcement. Both may be gunning for the Veep slot.

9. George Pataki

Gov. Pataki has had a horrible week with the mass defections from his staff (Caucus Cooler has been all over this story).

Pataki was always a long shot. These recent events have likely just sped up the inevitable. By all accounts, Gov. Pataki is a first-rate human being. Perhaps his future lies in the cabinet of the next Republican President.

10. & 11. Tom Tancredo & Duncan Hunter

James Garfield was the last Congressman to be elected to the White House in 1880. So any presidential run from that chamber faces very long odds.

Tancredo made statements a few weeks ago that indicated that’s he out of the running, before seemingly reversing course this week. His knack for the kooky quote will keep him in the headlines regardless.

Duncan Hunter’s announcement has seemed to generate very little enthusiasm (to no one’s surprise). He is another candidate who may be gunning for a cabinet position.

12. Chuck Hagel

I have a better chance of winning the Republican nomination than Sen. Hagel

Well, that’s it for this update. Fire away in the comments!

*Note: This is a reprint of a post that I recently wrote for Giuliani Blog. I am printing it here due to a couple of commentors who had inquired about Mayor Giuliani’s accomplishments. This is part one of a continuing series.-KWN
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Many New Yorkers (and most of the city’s ruling liberal elite) had given up on reducing crime by the time of Rudy Giuliani was inaugurated Mayor of New York City.

At that time, New York City was averaging five murders a day (1800-2200 murders a year between 1989 and 1993) and 10,000 felonies a week. Property crimes had essentially been decriminalized, with car owners displaying flags of surrender such as #quot;radio already stolen#quot; to prevent further break-ins. Roving #quot;wolf packs#quot; of street toughs instilled fear in law abiding citizens on the city’s streets.

Those who could leave the city did so (further weakening the city’s already crumbling taxpayer base). Of the residents fleeing New York City, 49% stated that they or someone they resided with had been a victim of violent crime within three years of their departure. By 1990, over one million New Yorkers had fled the city.

Mayor David Dinkins, not surprisingly, placed the blame for New York’s crime problem at society’s feet, echoing the liberal axiom that crime is best fought by increased government spending on social programs, or #quot;fighting crime at its roots#quot;. The answer certainly was not more police officers, as many liberal activists noted in reaction to budget cuts. Prominent among the first areas in which they suggested cuts, (in reaction to the $2.3 billion budget deficit in 1994) was the city’s incoming police academy class.

One poll respondent best summarized the feelings of New Yorkers regarding fighting crime in the city, lamenting, #quot;It’s a bigger job than anyone can handle.#quot;

(more…)

Two key advisors on George Pataki’s Iowa staff are leaving the outgoing-Governor’s team, citing their differences with Pataki on the abortion issue.??Loras Schulte and Ed Failor Jr. said they were stepping down as advisors to 21st Century Freedom PAC.? Consequentially, this could be either great news or horrible news for Rudy Giuliani, because it means one of two things for Rudy: 1). It’s going to be severely difficult for pro-choice presidential Republican candidates to keep pro-life supporters, or 2). Because Rudy hasn’t been having this same kind of fall-out as Pataki by this point, then it won’t be an issue for him.

No, not the Senators themselves–the campaign finance reform legislation that those two Senators co-authored.? I happen to agree with Newt and commend him for calling McCain out on this during a speech to first amendment rights supporters here in New Hampshire.

Quinnipiac University released today a survey that asked about people’s feelings toward many leading presidential candidates and other politicians.? Quinnipiac’s famous poll, called the “feeling thermometer,” gauges how warm or cold registered voters feel toward?certain figures.? Here’s what this month’s poll has to say:

?
	?MEAN RATING	Unsure/ Refused %
Evan Bayh	43.3	76
Joe Biden	47.0	52
Hillary Clinton	49.0	1
John Edwards	49.9	20
Bill Frist	41.5	53
Newt Gingrich	42.0	15
Rudy Giuliani	64.2	9
Al Gore	44.9	3
John Kerry	39.6	5
John McCain	57.7	12
Barack Obama	58.8	41
Condoleezza Rice	56.1	7
Bill Richardson	47.7	65
Mitt Romney	45.9	65

Clearly, the person in the best position according to this poll is Rudy Giuliani.? Giuliani is, not only the sole candidate to break into the 60’s, but he doesn’t just break 60, he clocks in at 64.2, almost half-way to 70.? No question about it–no other candidate creates as many warm feelings as Giuliani.? Barack Obama comes in at a distant second with 58.8, and McCain is close behind at 57.7.? Granted, people might have warm feelings about Oprah, but that doesn’t mean they’d support her for President.? However, it is inarguable that Rudy’s reservoir of good will that he’s built up ever since 9/11 gives him an enormous leg-up in this race.? Perhaps this poll will help the media begin to see that McCain’s position as frontrunner isn’t as solid as assumed–that, perhaps, McCain isn’t in fact the only frontrunner for the GOP nomination.? At this point, I don’t see anything less than a dead even tie between Rudy and McCain on the Republican side.

Not surprisingly low?are Bill?Frist, one of the most frustrating and incompetent Senate Majority Leaders Republicans have had in a long time,?and John Kerry, who has plummeted since his “botched joke” earlier this fall.? I doubt we’ll be seeing much more from him.? Kerry made the same exact mistakes as George Allen: he A). said something incredibly stupid that there was really no way to explain way, B). tried to explain it away, and C). didn’t just make a sincere apology directly to those he insulted right away, but drew it out until it became a big deal and then gave a weasly, half-assed apology.? Let this be a lesson to all future presidential candidates–learn from Kerry and Allen’s mistakes.? 2008 will be the toughest race in years, and neither party wants to nominate someone they think is immature and untrustworthy enough to throw away an entire campaign with an ill-timed?slip of the tongue.

Surprisingly low, however, are Evan Bayh, the very popular moderate-Democrat?Governor-turned-Senator from Indiana whom we would expect to have a lot of crossover appeal, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House who is increasingly being touted as one of the top-tier major Republican presidential candidates.? I could see Bayh’s numbers rising?dramatically as he becomes better known to those unsure independents who might break for him later on.? The only reason Gingrich is?seen as such a contender, in my opinion, is the flaws in all the other candidates.? For some, it’s becoming clear that all the lower-tier candidates have serious problems, and as many of them pick themselves off by their own stupidity, Newt (someone who, so far, has avoided saying anything really damning) seems to just float around, letting the political corpses of his failing colleagues buoy him up higher and higher.? He hasn’t really done or accomplished anything significant or been in any sort of real executive role in close to a decade now.? He’s just playing it safe enough that he’s becoming many voters’ alternative to the centrist-Giuliani/moderate-McCain on one side and the conservative political underdogs/newbies on the other side.? I have to also give credit where credit is due–Gingrich is a great speaker and organizer, and he’s able to convey thoughts and solutions in a way that few politicians have ever been able to.? However, there is a persistently negative aura that surrounds him amongst the general populace, and while Gingrich has all the personal life muck of Giuliani, he doesn’t have the redemption that Giuliani has achieved as a result of 9/11 (or the executive experience, for that matter).? Somehow, I just have a feeling that Gingrich is being overrated and overestimated as a presidential contender.

Also suprisingly, for all of Mitt Romney’s active campaigning and work in trying to raise his national profile (which is earning him considerably more votes in the nomination polls), and for all of Bill Richardson’s political stagnation and stasis in the past year and a half, Richardson and Romney have about the same exact level of national name recognition according to this survey.? Even worse, despite having the same exact level of name recognition, Romney clocks in even colder than Richardson.? With all Romney’s charisma and qualifications and political organization and hype, he can’t seem to grab a greater foothold amongst the general populace than Bill Richardson, arguably the most boring and unaccomplished contender in the whole Democratic column.? What gives?

In fact, since this same poll was taken last May, Romney has only caught the eye of 3% more respondents (in May, 68% of respondents didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion, compared to 65% this November).? On top of that, his “warmth” rating has actually been steadily decreasing over the past year, going from a 47.5 in May, to a 46.8 in August, to his current 45.9.? Romney is also the only Republican candidate other than Bill?Frist?to be decreasing–every other candidate is picking up speed.? Perhaps it’s Romney’s shifting of gears as ‘08 looms and he pushes further to the right, likely alienating many of the centrist supporters he had as Governor of Massachusetts.

Obama’s wooing of evangelicals runs into fierce resistance.

Heh.

As neither an Obamaniac! nor an evangelical, I have no say in that fight.

But that doesn’t mean it can’t bring a smile to my face.

And it does.

Speaker Newt Gingrich spoke at the annual Nackey S. Loeb First Amendment Awards Honors Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire last night and made himself available to the media before the event to answer a wide array of questions.?The?Manchester (NH) Union Leader and the Associated Press were there to report on the press conference and speech.

Speaker Gingrich is clearly running for president in 2008, even though he claims for now that he will not make a formal decision on the race until September of 2007. But?I have a hard time believing that?someone this passionate about public policy and the future of our country is really going to be able to refrain from entering the fray in time to participate in the first Republican presidential candidates’ debate in South Carolina on May 17, 2007. We’ll see.

Jay Carney’s appearance on Hardball with Chris Matthews last night serves as a perfect example of why members of one party should never, ever bet the farm on predictions regarding the other party’s presidential nomination.? When asked about the ‘08 horserace, Carney had this?to say about the Republican side:

CARNEY:?…I don??t think Giuliani is nearly as viable as his poll numbers suggest.? I think Tony and I argued about this in the past, but I think Giuliani is unpalatable to such a large segment of the Republican Party that he would not qualify in my book as a top tier contender right now.

MATTHEWS:? What about Romney?? (inaudible).

CARNEY:? I think he is.? I think Romney is a top tier contender, because I think the…

MATTHEWS:? Will he appeal to the Republican gut??

CARNEY:? I think he seems like a more legitimate conservative to a lot of conservative Republicans than McCain does, and certainly Giuliani does.? And I think Sam Brownback is certainly a possible candidate.?

My emphasis on all counts.? To be fair, Carney isn’t wrong about everything.? Romney is certainly a top tier contender — one of the Big 3 with Rudy and McCain — and as Carney pointed out, many conservatives have doubts about McCain’s conservative creds.? But Carney is exactly wrong in his dismissal of Rudy as something other than a top tier candidate, an assertion that goes against every shred of empirical evidence, as well as his implication that Brownback, a dark horse niche candidate at best, is somehow more likely to win the nod than Rudy or McCain.?

Carney’s predictions demonstrate his lack of understanding regarding the GOP electorate.? Unlike the Democrats (and I have no idea if Carney is one, but given his position within the MSM, it’s at least more likely as a matter of probability that Carney is a Democrat rather than a Republican), in GOP fights for the nomination, the inmates do not run the asylum.??In presidential races, Democrats often allow?a small band of ideologues in the hinterlands of the party to hijack the primary process and use it to nominate an unelectable candidate who will then go on to lose to make a point.? This, of course, was the sort of dynamic that gave the Dems nominees like George McGovern, who lost 49 states in 1972, and almost gave them Howard Dean during the last presidential election.

Now ask yourself this: when was the last time that Republicans nominated a candidate on the fringe?? And given the GOP’s history of nominating heirs apparent, which candidate is statistically more likely to win the nod: a national hero who’s been leading in all the polls for the past two years, or a dark horse senator who appeals to a very specific segment?of Republicans and who’s polling in the low single-digits?

Thankfully, Tony Blankley, a good conservative who does understand how Republican primaries work, corrected Mr. Carney:

BLANKLEY:? There??s something about the Republicans having lost the Congress that changes a little bit both dynamics, I think, particularly the Republican dynamic.? The Republicans are going to want to win now, even more ferociously than before…(Rudy) is a national hero, and in a dangerous world and a man who might be able to win.

Indeed.

Update: Thanks to Jay Carney for stopping by and clarifying his position on these issues.? Please visit the comments section to read Jay’s commentary.

Republican voters ought to and need to know how each and every 2008 presidential hopeful stands on the current appropriations battle that John Fund of the Wall Street Journal reports on today. This?should be the first issue of the 2008 presidential campaign on the Republican side, and the media can make it happen by asking each GOP candidate for president to go on the record as to which course of action they favor.

There are two choices: 1) Pass the appropriations bills in the lame duck session of Congress, thereby allowing nearly 10,000 earmark spending provisions to become law or 2) Pass continuing resolutions for the remaining appropriations bills in the lame duck session of Congress that fund programs at last year’s spending levels, thereby causing the aforementioned earmarks to expire at the end of the calendar year and forcing the new, 110th Congress that is controlled by Democrats to mark up and pass their own versions of each appropriations bill next year before the continuing resolutions expire.

Implicit in the second option is the reality that not nearly as many earmarks would make it through brand new appropriations bills in the 110th Congress given the scrutiny voters and spending hawks on both sides of the aisle are giving federal spending largesse. Appropriators and big government types on the Republican side such as Congressman Jerry Lewis and Senator Ted Stevens favor the first option, while those congressional members urging spending restraint and reform such as GOP Senators Tom Coburn and Jim DeMint favor the second option.

But where does?each 2008?Republican presidential candidate stand on this issue? The media should find out. Voters on the GOP side need to know which presidential candidates favor reform in the?manner of reduced spending for smaller, more efficient, less intrusive government and which favor the?status quo in the manner?of?current levels of?spending and earmarks for inevitably big government that may nevertheless be deemed compassionate (because it takes care of people as a first resort) conservatism (because it incorporates tax cuts at the same time).

As I perused the political blogosphere this evening, I found myself wondering just when SurveyUSA would release another one of those nifty 50-state polls detailing the approval ratings of all of our nation’s governors.? Upon researching this issue, I discovered that SUSA had in fact released their latest?gubernatorial polls just hours ago.? DaveG: prophet?? Discuss amongst yourselves.

Anyway, one of the most interesting numbers in the SUSA collection is the approval rating of Mississippi’s Republican governor, Haley Barbour.? During a year in which Republicans took a licking in all regions of the country, and at every level of government, Gov. Barbour remains afloat at?a hearty 59%.

This only serves to reinforce my belief that Barbour would be an ideal running mate for whichever of the Big 3 (Rudy, Romney, McCain) ends up garnering the GOP presidential nomination.? All will need to shore up the south, which makes Barbour, along with other popular southern governors such as Jeb Bush and Mark Sanford, that much more attractive.? But unlike Jeb, Barbour wouldn’t threaten to drag down the ticket with the Bush fatigue attached to his surname.? Further, Barbour’s CV is impressive; he brings to the job more gravitas than the young, green Mark Sanford, which is important in this post-9/11 world.? Finally, Barbour’s record is that of a politician who would likely be highly amenable to getting back to a conservatism that looks more like that of the Reagan years and less like that of the Bush years.

The political grapevine has suggested in recent months that Barbour may in fact endorse McCain, which would unfortunately pretty much take him off the table as a veep choice for Rudy or Romney.? At present though, Barbour needs to be at the top of every ‘08 contender’s vice presidential shortlist.

From The Daily Telegraph:

Some of the biggest Republican donors to George W Bush’s presidential campaigns are backing Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, for the White House as the candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton in 2008.

Over a private lunch of sea bass and hamburgers at New York’s 21 Club recently, Mr Giuliani addressed nearly three dozen of the men who helped propel Mr Bush to the presidency. They included “Pioneers”, who donated more than $100,000 to Bush campaigns, and “Rangers” who gave at least $200,000.

There are two important points expressed by the people at the meeting. The first of which pertains to Sen. McCain:

Patrick Oxford, a major Bush contributor from Houston who attended the lunch, said that despite having courted the top Bush donors for years, Senator John McCain, seen as the Republican front runner for 2008, had not persuaded all of them.

“Every Republican leader and fundraiser has had the chance to contribute to or join the McCain team. If he’s not seen to be the inevitable choice by now, perhaps that signals something,” Mr Oxford said.

“The great success of President Bush in 2000 was that he created an aura of inevitability relatively early. I suspect that’s been the McCain effort as well and the polling numbers don’t reflect that he’s done that.”

Secondly, regarding Rudy’s social positions:

Mr. Giuliani is seen as a hero of the September 11th attacks for his dignified and patriotic performance as New York mayor, as well as being known as a foreign policy hawk. He has therefore been able to tackle head-on the concerns that his liberal stances on abortion, gun control and gay marriage make him unacceptable to ordinary Republicans.

“Closer analysis will find that his positions on those three particular issues are not hands-down odious to the Republican rank and file,” said Mr Oxford.

This is really the most important thing that we can take away from this article. Hizzoner made a point to address the concerns of these financial heavy hitters in order to convince them that his past social views can be addressed in a way that will be acceptable to the people who vote in the primaries. From what we know, Rudy was successful in making his case due to who has signed on to his exploratory committee.

The Iowa Republican Party will conduct its straw poll for presidential candidates on August 11, 2007 at the Hilton Coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa according to Thomas Beaumont of the Des Moines Register.

Congressman Duncan Hunter talks to Stephen Dinan in today’s edition of the Washington Times about the niche he hopes to fill as a Republican running for president in 2008.

Mike Allen of Time Magazine writes about the issue of Mormon faith for GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney in this week’s issue. Related articles in the issue tackle the Romney health care plan passed in Massachusetts and look back on the issue of JFK running for president in 1960 as a Catholic.

From my perspective, it appears that Governor Romney would be advised to give a JFK-type of speech putting his Mormon faith in context in order to try and move beyond the issue. If he doesn’t, his “high-minded” but general answers to questions about his faith are?likely to simply spawn more specific questions that will crowd out any other messages he is trying to communicate. And if those questions aren’t answered directly, the story becomes why the candidate is ducking the issue.

As to the timing of such a speech, the reality is that Hugh Hewitt’s book on Romney and his Mormon faith?is due out in March of 2007 and will inevitably bring this topic front and center. So it doesn’t seem to make much sense to give such a speech prior to publication of the Hewitt book.

As a bit of additional Romney campaign news, Lee Bandy of?The State reports that?the Governor has hired in-state political consultant Warren Tompkins to advise him on the crucial South Carolina primary. Tompkins is generally credited with the hard-hitting Bush primary campaign in 2000 against Senator John McCain. When you add Tompkins in with national consultant?Alex Castellanos, who is already on board the Romney campaign, it is a certain bet that the Governor will be running a very aggressive media operation.

Quinnipiac released their latest “Thermometer Reading” poll which measures American’s “warm feelings” regarding prominent?politicians. Again, Rudy comes out on top by a large margin:

Americans have the warmest feelings about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, according to a poll released Monday that scores the popularity of national leaders.

The Quinnipiac University’s “thermometer reading,” taken the week after the Nov. 7 election, asked voters to rate their feelings for 20 leaders on a scale of 0 to 100.

Giuliani, a Republican weighing a presidential bid in 2008, scored the highest at 64.2. Obama and McCain, who are also considering a 2008 campaign, finished next at 58.8 and 57.7.

Hillary came in 9th place out of 20, while John Kerry finished dead last.

Also worth noting is that Obama remains unknown to 40% of those polled, providing further evidence that Obamamania is being largely driven by Democrats and the MSM.

I should probably preface this post with a disclaimer.? I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Democratic Party.? The party of FDR just isn’t part of my political DNA, nor has it ever been.? I actually first became interested in politics in 1992, and before I was a Republican, I was a Perotista.? That year, if my memory serves me well, Bush 41 seemed about as clueless and politically tone deaf as the Beltway Republican establishment did this year.? And Bill Clinton struck me as too slick by half, generally unwilling to make the big structural changes needed in our government.? Perot, though, struck me as a genuine reformer — an immoderate centrist, a pragmatist, a technocrat, and the candidate most willing to transform the federal leviathan into something that did a few things, did them well, and otherwise left Americans alone to live their lives.

Perot of course turned out to be a demagogue, but my interest in politics did anything but subside.? As I began to learn about American politics, I realized that the things that I liked about Perot ‘92 were actually derived from the age-old principles of American conservatism and the Republican Party, from Lincoln to TR to Goldwater to?Reagan.? When Newt came along in 1994 with a Contract that took ownership over those principles once again, I became a Republican, and lots of other Americans apparently followed suit.

That was a longwinded way of explaining that, while I’ve been lots of other things, I’ve never been a Democrat.? As such, the way the Dems select their presidential nominee has always been a mystery to me, and any predictions I make with regard to that issue should be taken against that backdrop.

But that personal narrative of mine also serves another purpose, which is to suggest that that the folly of Republicans in 1996 may be repeated by the Dems in 2008.??In 1996,?the GOP, packed to the brim with a new type of voter after 1994, selected a paleo-Republican as its presidential nominee.? Now, don’t get me wrong.? I like Bob Dole.? To call Bob Dole competent would be an egregious understatement that at one time or another would likely have warranted a duel.? Bob Dole ran the Senate far more effectively than any of his successors thus far, and on some alternative timeline, he would’ve made a good president.? But in 1996,?with?a?new generation of Republicans and conservatives making?their way into the party, the GOP was just nuts to nominate someone who represented the party’s past like Bob Dole.? The new Republicans were looking for a presidential version of Newt.? Instead, they got a pol who pre-dated Reagan and Reaganism.? Again, a poor move, but probably a predictable one given the GOP’s tendency to nominate frontrunners and heirs apparent, as well as the tendency of political parties to get lazy following a victory.

And that’s why I can’t help but see a parallel in Hillary’s meteoric rise in all of the polls of Democrats regarding 2008.? The ink is barely dry on this past election and