An interesting new quote from Mark McKinnon, John McCain’s own top media dog who was Bush’s in 2004, about who the actual frontrunner of the 2008 presidential race currently is: “The polls speak for themselves,” says McKinnon.? “And the polls say that Rudy Giuliani is currently the frontrunner.”? While McKinnon is probably trying to keep McCain and his supporters on their toes so they don’t get?too complacent with all the belly-scratching the mainstream media is giving them, it is interesting to hear a major political expert go against the grain, even if it means downplaying the power of his own boss.? While the polls do seem to indicate that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner amongst the actual voters (with Rudy leading the GOP pack in every recent poll except for?one), the Giuliani camp must take a cue from the McCain camp in not getting too comfortable with their advantage, keeping in mind that Rudy’s lead in the polls is at this point tenuous.? There does, however, seem to be a slow but noticeable move, even amongst the media and beltway pundits, toward acknowledging that Rudy is indeed a, if not the, frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
November 30th, 2006 at 4:06 pm
No way does McKinnon really believe Giuliani is the frontrunner. He is lowering expectations for his guy and raising them for an opponent.
McCain leads big in New Hampshire and if you polled likely Republican caucus and primary voters in early states, who are the ones most likely to participate in those events, in early states who are made aware of Mayor Giuliani’s positions on social issues then I am confident there would be a different frontrunner in those places that will matter most.
November 30th, 2006 at 4:18 pm
Republius, I agree with you that I think McKinnon is merely trying to lower the bar for his guy and raise it for the other guy, but it’s interesting that he points to the polls, because the polls really don’t lie, and Rudy is clearly a serious contender/frontrunner, looking at the numbers. I just find it interesting that McKinnon acknowledges Rudy’s power among the actual voters.
November 30th, 2006 at 4:22 pm
There can be no doubt that Rudy is the current front-runner. He leads in every single poll except one. Now will he be the one who actually wins? That is a different question.
In every sport I am aware of, the person with the biggest lead early in the game is not necessarily the person who wins, or is the most likely to win. So it is no knock on anyone else to say that at this moment in time, Rudy is ahead. Can he maintain his lead for 18 months is the important question.
November 30th, 2006 at 5:02 pm
Republius,
So what’s going to happen next year when tidbits like this one (see below) from Romney’s past start coming out? Are you telling me that this will have no effect on Mitt, but similar concerns will take down the most popular politician in the United States in Rudy Giuliani?
Or how about when McCain uses footage of Romney from the 1994 senatorial debate in which he states that he hopes that abortion remains “Safe and legal” in TV commercials in South Carolina?
Please don’t interpret me as anti-Mitt. I an certainly not anti-Mitt. Like I’ve said before, from this crop of candidates he would be my #2 choice. I just find it unbelievable that people think that the weapons used against Rudy won’t have an effect on Mitt as well.
November 30th, 2006 at 6:11 pm
Tradesports: Romney pulls ahead of Rudy. Rudy shares have dropped below 15! As a fan of the former Mayor, I am disapointed but clearly it is hard to say that Rudy is the frontrunner if the prediction markets overwhelmingly point to McCain…
November 30th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
ElCapitan,
Are you the same “ElCapitan” that posts frequently on Redstate? Glad to have you here! I enjoy reading your comments on Redstate.
That being said, I have never understood why people put so much stock in Tradesports, but then again I really do not know very much about gambling. Can you fill me in as to why we should put stock into what happening on Tradesports?
November 30th, 2006 at 6:53 pm
That hot pink is fierce! Simply fabulous.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:16 pm
Kavow W. –Yes it is the same ElCap from RS; I haven’t been posting too much lately though because I’m very busy in the fall. Tradesports works by putting together buyers and sellers of contracts on certain future events: sports, politics, even “overt airstrikes on Iran” before a certain time period. Tradesports has been very accurate in elections close to election day (they predicted Webb, McCaskill, Tester, & Corker victories in the nations closest Senate races) because knowlegable people put money where their mouth is on these subjects. That said, anything can happen in election season, and George Allen 6 months before the election was trading at around 90 (people who thought he was a sure victory wanted to lock in a 10% profit, and some people were willing to take a major long shot that Allen would lose.) After “macaca,” however, Allen’s shares fell to the 60-70 range and in the final few weeks of polling Allen was trading between 40-55, when most polls and the RCP average showed Allen down. To traders out there I think that Rudy is a great bargain at 15 while leading almost all national polls. HRC, btw, is trading at 56.1 to get the dem nomination, meaning the aggregate “market” believes she has a 56% chance of getting the nomination.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:32 pm
Thanks for the explanation El Capitan. Please stop by here often.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:41 pm
Kavon, thanks for the awesome flier! Very amusing indeed.
As to the substance of this post, of course McKinnon isn’t saying anything particularly revolutionary, by making Rudy the front runner it allows McCain to go on the offense.
Rudy’s poll numbers, unlike Mitt, have nowhere to go but down. He is the un-politician and has stayed about the fray. Even if the social issues aren’t a deal breaker, his general past and his specific policy positions will hurt him. Seen in that light, it’s a testament to McCain that he’s neck and neck with Giuliani even though McCain’s views are well known to everyone.
November 30th, 2006 at 7:53 pm
Wow, Kavon, where did you have that flier tucked away? Very fierce indeed. Would this flier happen to be the one that there was a big stink about several months ago, where they put Romney’s name on it without his permission?
If a pink pride weekend and 14 year old (and no longer applicable) pro-choice statements are all that Romney has to face in the primaries, McCain would be very smart to not instigate things with negative ads. There’s a mountain of worse stuff out there that McCain would have to face.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:11 pm
Murphy,
The only reason I put that up here is to illustrate what awaits Mitt. Please don’t confuse that with my endorsement of it. People seem to be in complete denial that the same people who are gunning for Rudy are gunning for Mitt too. This is what awaits both of them.
I am on record stating that past liberal social positions are of little importance to me because all GOP presidential candidates move to the right during the nomination process. In fact, it was the topic of one of the first indepth essays I ever wrote for this site. You can read it here.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:16 pm
I would seem to think that a flyer and 14-year old news reel would be less threatening than footage of Rudy dressed in drag smooching Donald Trump and dressed up as some sort of Lion/tribal figure (both of which I find great, btw…there’s no sarcasm here).
And you spell it “flyer”, folks.
November 30th, 2006 at 8:21 pm
Kavon,
I wasn’t reading into your motives at all. As a Giuliani supporter, I really doubted that you would have a problem with a pink weekend flyer (thank you methepeople). But I’d truly be surprised to see McCain or Giuliani turn a critical public eye to Romney’s record, considering he is skeleton-free by comparison. Independent swift-boating style groups, that’s another thing.
That said, I do remember something about a pride march using Romney’s name on their flyers, and him coming down very hard on them for it…nearly disbanding their commission, I recall.