That’s what we Rudy supporters are doing, says?Tony Fabrizio.?
According to Fabrizio, anyone encouraging Rudy to run for the Republican nomination, and not make an independent bid for the White House, is basically gutting the Mayor’s chances of being president, while enhancing the odds of a President McCain.? Fabrizio believes that in a race involving McCain and Giuliani, it is McCain who will come across as the acceptable, consensus choice to “social and moral conservatives,” not Rudy.
Needless to say, I disagree.? Pretty much all of the empirical evidence that we’ve seen thus far shows 1) Rudy beating McCain in a two-man race among Republican primary voters and 2) Rudy doing better among those primary voters who self-identify as Republicans, while McCain does better with independents.? Rudy, then, seems to be the candidate in the GOP’s center of gravity, not McCain.? It is Rudy who will have McCain to his left, and presumably Romney and others to his right, and who will attract the silent majority of regular Republicans and conservatives who just sort of vote on all issues pretty much equally and who sense that Rudy’s “one of us.”?
But even taking the gut-check factor out of it, on which issues is McCain actually to the right of Rudy?? I can think of very few.? Rudy is a solid fiscal conservative, committed to low taxes, balanced budgets, and the introduction of market forces into government.? Rudy is in favor of an aggressive GWOT.? And Rudy has expressed his support for conservative judges, and has stated that he would appoint jurists like Roberts, Alito, and Scalia.? I can only assume Fabrizio thinks that because McCain can put the label “pro-life” next to his name, that somehow moves the Arizona senator eons to the right of the Mayor, despite the practical impact of a Giuliani Administration on the issue of abortion being basically the same as any other mainstream Republican president due to his likely judicial picks.? I think voters are much more sophisticated than this.? But then again, I’ve never managed a presidential campaign, and Fabrizio has (he was the chief pollster for Dole ‘96).
Finally, I do want to touch on Fabrizio’s call for Rudy to go indie.? I think this is a horrible idea that totally misunderstands the Rudy temperment.? If Rudy is anything, he’s a team player.? A leader.? A quarterback, not a maverick or a loner.? I’d say McCain fits the mold of a third-party candidate far better than Rudy does, as does Joe Lieberman on the other side of the aisle.? If Rudy does get the opportunity to take the Oath of Office, I have no doubt he will go down in history as a great president.? But make no mistake about it;?he’ll be a Republican.
December 7th, 2006 at 11:51 pm
This is a really weird article and I say this as the biggest (only?) McCain supporter on this site. It does seem that the author constructed the article based on assumptions that are just not true. Obviously, I disagree that McCain fits the third party type, I think McCain is a loyal Republican. I think the idea Rudy should run as a Reform party candidate might possibly be the dumbest thing I’ve heard regarding 08 politics in quite some time. Not the least being that a third party candidate, be it McCain or Giuliani, would have no realistic chance of winning the election and would only serve as being a spoiler and siphoning votes from the Republicans. This guy, Tony Fabrizio, is ridiculous and the fact that he was Dole’s chief pollster explains a lot about the Dole campaign that year.
December 7th, 2006 at 11:56 pm
You’re basing your opinion of very early polls where people Republicans have not been fully aquainted with Giuliani’s positions. Most of the people that support him have one thing in their head and that is his leadership during 9/11. To think that Giuliani will get the Republican nomination is beyond me. Granted, stranger things have happened, I just don’t see that happening. Of course, if it does, he has a very good chance at winning.
December 8th, 2006 at 12:39 am
Agree with LJ (Fabrizio only makes himself look bad rather than making a cogent argument) and Rick (that the Giuliani numbers are probably filled with a lot of water).
I still maintain that the only prudent thing to do is give respect to Giuliani, Gingrich, McCain, and Romney as a top-tier based on name recognition, organization, and ability to raise funds. But they all have significant vulnerabilities and I don’t think it makes sense to claim a leader untilo we have some primaries and caucuses under our belts.
Arguing that one of these four definitely leads or is definitely out seems foolish to me.
December 8th, 2006 at 1:24 am
Rick,
Charlie Cook’s on polls illustrate how wrong you are. Even when he specifically stated every past liberal position that Rudy held, his support did not drop significantly among self-identified conservative Republicans.
December 8th, 2006 at 8:13 am
“Agree with . . . Rick (that the Giuliani numbers are probably filled with a lot of water).”
Question: Do the people who write for and edit this site even bother to read their own site before they mindlessly opine — as was clearly done some months ago as to George Allen?
Answer: Apparently not! In a posting on this very site only yesterday, discussing the latest FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll released the same day, Mr. Eisenhower informed us that:
“The poll also asks about perceptions of Rudy Giuliani’s ideology. Even more than Hillary, a whopping 47% of Americans say Rudy is in just the right place politically. Only 9% of Americans say he’s too liberal, and if anything, 15% say he’s too conservative. Funny enough, amongst Republicans, with 81% of GOPers knowing enough about Rudy’s positions to have a definitive opinion on him, a total 65% say he’s in the right place. Only 11% of Republicans say he’s too liberal, which is about the same number of Democrats who say Hillary is too conservative (10%). According to the numbers, if a pundit says Rudy is too liberal for the GOP, then they must also say Hillary is too conservative for the Democrats, which few MSM analysts would buy.”
Deroy Murdock of National Review On Line has opined that: “The oddest thing about the conventional wisdom may be its almost bulletproof imperviousness to the facts.” Apparently the same can be said for at least some of the editors of this site
December 8th, 2006 at 9:52 am
Luther,
I don’t think you can find one person who writes for or edits this who has agreed with Fabrizio.
We might not agree with him, but we will still print what he had to say (if only to rip it).
December 8th, 2006 at 10:26 am
Kavon:
Please forgive me if I was unclear. I humbly apologise! My response was not at all directed toward the decision to publish and comment upon the Fabrizio piece. I agree absolutely that such is the correct approach. Moreover, if you will refer to my response to “Another Republican Washington, D.C. Insider Rips A 2008 Giuliani Candidacy”, you will see that I wholeheartedly endorse your own approach!
Rather my response was directed solely to the comment of another of your editors to the effect that: “Agree with . . . Rick (that the Giuliani numbers are probably filled with a lot of water).” Indeed, the specific focus of my comment was the incongruous juxtaposition of this opinion with the quote I reporduced from Gen. Eisenhower the day before about the push-polling done on Rudy by Fox News/Opinion dynamics. It was intended to deflate those who continue to hold the “he’s too liberal for the Republican Party” opinion in the face of the facts-on-the-ground. Hence, I repeated the comment from Deroy Murdock about the “conventional wisdom”. Again, I apologise for being unclear.
I believe I have finally come to the inescapable conclusion that one of the principal ways in which Rudy is like Ronald Reagan is that the Liberal Media and the “conventional wisdom” will doggedly insist upon underestimating him until he has won both the White House and the Global War on Terror, and perhaps even after that.
My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!
December 8th, 2006 at 11:19 am
Here is the thing. Rudy does not need to win a early since he has Conn, NY, FL, NJ, Penn, RI, VT, Maryland, and Delware where he should be all favor in don’t take place to later on. (There is some debate about FL if Jeb backs Romney and Penn where they all a lot of conservates, but I think it is possible that Rick Santorum endorses his fellow Italian given the agreement on terror and Islam Extremes.
McCain and Romney is going to try to knock the other out by scoring early wins in place like Iowa (where Rudy should bypass), NH, Mich, NV (I know the dems are move NV up but is the same for the Republicans), ARK (If Huckabee drops out), VA, Wash, and ND. All Rudy really needs to do is place in the top threes (That is way bypassing Iowa because Brownback is likely to place thrid) and a hand full of seconds to carry on. If one sweeps then the other will likely be out before the first Supertuseday in March (Where CA, Ohio, NY, Conn, Mass, VT, GA, and some more come a board) In a Rudy vs. McCain or Rudy vs. Romney matchup