GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
The latest presidential survey conducted by WNBC/Marist shows Rudy Giuliani with?a very slight lead over John McCain for the 2008 Republican nomination.? Condoleezza Rice, who is still included in Marist’s poll, has been shown by other pollsters to split Rudy’s support, so we can assume, since Condi is very likely not to go back on her promise to forgoe a White House run, that much of her support will go to Giuliani, meaning Rudy’s lead over McCain is probably a bit higher than what is currently displayed:
WNBC/Marist Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2006. N=967 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Republicans and Republican leaners. MoE ? 5.
? ? ? ? ? .
? “If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?”
? ? ? ? ? .
? ? ? 11/27 -
12/3/069/18-20/06 2/13-15/06 10/12-13 &
17/052/14-16/05 ? ? % % % % % ? Rudy Giuliani 24 23 22 21 25 ? John McCain 23 15 22 19 21 ? Condoleezza Rice 15 20 22 21 14 ? Newt Gingrich 8 7 5 5 5 ? Mitt Romney 4 4 4 - 1 ? Bill Frist 3 4 2 2 3 ? Chuck Hagel 2 - 1 1 - ? Tommy Thompson 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a ? Mike Huckabee 1 - n/a n/a n/a ? Tom Tancredo 1 1 1 1 n/a ? George Pataki 1 2 2 2 1 ? Sam Brownback - 1 - 2 n/a ? Duncan Hunter - n/a n/a n/a n/a ? Unsure 17 21 17 17 20 ? George Allen n/a 2 2 4 - ? Jeb Bush n/a n/a n/a 5 7 ? Rick Santorum n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 ? Bill Owens n/a n/a n/a n/a 2
WNBC/Marist’s results have always been a little bit quirky, but it might just be chalked up to how early and uncertain the race is at this point.? For instance, candidates’ support seems to fluctuate violently in Marist’s polls, while the changes appear to be a bit more gradual in other polling organizations’ surveys (i.e. McCain’s support?bounces from 22% to 15% back up to 23% within a matter of a few months).? Also, candidates that seem to have little to no chance at winning the nomination seem to do quite well in Marist’s polls (i.e. Hagel has a better chance at winning the nomination than Thompson or Huckabee?? Pataki has more support than Brownback?? Don’t think so…)
WNBC/Marist’s adamant refusal to drop Condi Rice from the lineup as other polling organization’s have done likely further skews the numbers, though they had no problem dropping other candidates, like George Allen and Rick Santorum from the list as they disappeared from the radar, and as they will probably do with Bill Frist in their next poll.
And while Rudy Giuliani’s lead is rather slim in some polls, he always seems to retain it, whether the results are within the Margin of Error or not.? There are only a handful of exceptions to this: of the 20 presidential surveys conducted by a major reputable polling company so far in the year 2006, only 5 show John McCain in first place.? Of those 5 polls, 2 of the polls have McCain evenly tied with Rudy for first place, and all are within the MoE.? Despite the mainstream media talk, I don’t think there’s any other option but to assume that Rudy is truly the frontrunner here, albeit a slight one.
December 8th, 2006 at 4:20 pm
Woodrow,
Surprised you didn’t mention that Romney’s support has not moved at all in the past 10 months. That has to be extremely disconcerting for him.
December 8th, 2006 at 4:41 pm
LJ,
I don’t think this poll means much in terms of Romney’s support. Marist is known as sort of the “maverick” of the polling industry and their results are regularly a bit quirky. Virtually every other survey shows Romney’s support steadily increasing over the past couple of years:
FOX News Poll:
*6/05 = 2%
*3/06 = 4%
*8/06 = 5%
*12/06 = 8%
CNN Poll:
*12/05 = 2%
*2/06 = 3%
*8/06 = 6%
*10/06 = 7%
*11/06 = 9%
Pew Poll:
*8/06 = 4%
*11/06 = 7%
Gallup Poll:
*8/05 = 4%
*6/06 = 6%
If anything, Mitt Romney has at least retained his support in Marist’s polls, and that counts for something.
December 8th, 2006 at 4:50 pm
Woodrow,
Thanks for the clarification. My question is then, why are the Marist results so skewed? Tucker Carlson was just trumpeting the fact that Hillary was polling 20 points ahead of Edwards, Gore and Obama and that she was “fast becoming unbeatable.” None of the other polls I’ve seen put her that far ahead.
December 8th, 2006 at 5:12 pm
LJ,
You know, I’m not sure why Marist’s polls are so wacky. Their sample size seems to be large enough and they survey registered voters. According to their website, the polls are conducted by a bunch of undergrad students, so maybe it’s not as professional necessarily because the polltaking for Marist is more of an educational learning experience than a competitive business like other polling organizations are. Maybe their demographic target ratios are varying too much from survey to survey, or, heck, it might just be bad luck.
It could also be caused, as I hinted at in my post, by their stubborn inclusion of Condi Rice in the poll, who, as a non-candidate/draft-candidate and a very odd entity in the polling, could cause severe fluctuations. If the Draft Condi movement’s support is really up one month and really down the next, that might explain it.
December 8th, 2006 at 6:37 pm
They should alteast do a poll with Condi out of the race.
December 8th, 2006 at 9:44 pm
LJ, who cares how one’s poll numbers are doing before they have announced and started campaigning?
As to becoming unbeatable, raising funds can help there a lot more than early poll numbers. Where Hillary can freeze the field on the Democrat side is to raise the kind of money George W. Bush did in 2000 in comparison to the opposition, which she has a great chance to be able to do.
December 8th, 2006 at 9:58 pm
Republius,
I think poll numbers are important to gauge support for candidates with universal name recognition (McCain, Giuliani, Hillary, Gore). Polls for unknowns are almost worthless however.
The problem with Hillary raising money in order to freeze the field is that Obama is openly starting to contest her for donors. Did you see the NYT article a few days ago saying how Obama was in NYC, a few blocks from her office, trying to line up potential financial support for a run. According to the Hotline, he’s been calling other donors and have told them not to commit to any candidate until he decides whether to jump in or not. I think Obama would have a good chance to match the Hillary juggernaut in terms of money and if that happens, it’s a whole new ballgame.
December 9th, 2006 at 9:48 am
[...] WNBC/Marist has offered some more details to their earlier presidential poll released the other day. In it, they survey Republicans on Rudy Giuliani, concerning his seeming ideological rift with the staunch conservative party goers. The question posed by this poll’s results is: Is there in fact such a major rift at all…? [...]
December 11th, 2006 at 1:33 pm
Condi never made a promise that she will not run in 2008. She only said, I am not running.
She never said that if nominated, that she would not accept.
Time again for a lesson on organizing for a candidate draft. You see, there are people right now
in Iowa building up support for Condi. Same for N Hampshire. And if the polling people did not
see these actions coming from real people, it would be pooh-poohed.
Marist might have be awe struck by the high support for Condi to run back in Feb. 2005. The fact is
that many Republicans and conservatives see Condi as a leader for our nation. She is likeable and
acceptable to many voters.
The people who support her have a right to express that support and it shows in the polls.
The polls are also a key reason why Senator Frist dropped out. He never got above 5% in any national
poll in the past 2 years. Same for Chuck Hagel. He is not dynamic enough nor does he have a
Republican message except for being against our President. Lesson ONE, no one is going to win
any Republican nomination by undermining our president or trying to be Anti-Bush. Leave that to
the Democrats. Our president has 2 years left in office, so let’s try to help him, not rip the rug
out from under his feet and climbing over his body to grab the 2008 banner.