GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
John McCain keeps losing!? What’s going on here?? This time, a new CNN Poll has been released showing John McCain losing to Al Gore of all candidates.? Barack Obama has also cut 5% of the gap between McCain and himself since the November CNN Poll, with McCain now leading Obama by 4 points.? Rudy Giuliani, on the other hand, leads Obama by 7 points and ties Gore.? Mitt Romney still loses by wide margins to basically any Democrat, but polls including Romney won’t mean much for another few months yet.
Here’s the results:
CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Dec. 15-17, 2006. N=1,019 adults nationwide. MoE ? 3.
? ? ? ? ? ? .
“If [see below] were the Democratic Party’s candidate and [see below] were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?” If unsure: “As of today, do you lean more toward: [see below], the Democrat, or [see below], the Republican?” ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? John
McCain (R)Barack
Obama (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06 47 43 4 6 ? ? 11/3-5/06 49 40 5 6 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? Rudy
Giuliani (R)Barack
Obama (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06 49 42 4 5 ? ? 11/3-5/06 50 41 4 5 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? Mitt
Romney (R)Barack
Obama (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06
35 51 7 7 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? John
McCain (R)Al
Gore (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06
46 47 4 3 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? Rudy
Giuliani (R)Al
Gore (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06
46 46 5 3 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
? ? Mitt
Romney (R)Al
Gore (D)Neither/
Other (vol.)Unsure ? ? ? % % % % ? ? 12/15-17/06
37 53 6 3
As has been repeated in nearly a dozen posts these past couple?of months, John McCain, for all his “organization” and staff and money, may, and probably will, find himself in between a rock and a hard place now that he is a Senator of the minority party that will need every single vote it can get, especially from its “heir apparent” presidential candidate.? This means no more Maverick McCain, and that means no more lovefest from moderate voters and the mainstream media.? And the stinging memory of McCain’s insensitivity and downright disloyalty to conservatives in the past decade still lingers strongly.? The only reason McCain has been given as much ear as?he has been given is because voters think he can at least win.? But, if he can no longer even claim that, as seems to be the case, then what reason will grassroots conservatives have left to vote for John McCain?? McCain straddled the fence for far too long and has flipped too many flops since he started seriously campaigning for President, angering too many conservatives, and now he may well reap what he has sown.
For now, the only other realistic alternative to John McCain is Rudy Giuliani, who usually does a few notches better in the polls and, despite Rudy’s centrism, is still vastly more popular amongst the grassroots GOP voters than McCain.? If Mitt Romney shows good electoral appeal once his name recognition picks up, then he may well be a second major alternative, but for now, McCain’s losses are Rudy’s gains.
December 20th, 2006 at 4:56 pm
In McCain’s defense, it should be noted that Democratic candidates are probably getting a bump in support due to the mid-term elections, which the Democratic party clearly won, so the results aren’t particularly helpful as an indication of how well McCain would do vs. Hillary or Gore (both of whom he was beating handily based on the Survey USA polls that were conducted before the midterms).
However, these polls ARE an indication of which Republican candidate would be the strongest nominee for the general election. And on that count Rudy does seem to be the best bet.
December 20th, 2006 at 5:59 pm
Gallup Poll shows McCain now tied with Edwards in favorable/unfavorable:
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=25951&pg=2
December 20th, 2006 at 6:18 pm
Interesting. In Gallup poll, Edwards and Obama both have higher favorables, amongst Republicans, than do Romney and Brownback!
The CNN polls seem to me to basically say that McCain and Rudy and Gore (and Hillary) are all pretty een.
December 20th, 2006 at 6:19 pm
even, that is…
December 20th, 2006 at 6:51 pm
I’ll admit that seeing a poll showing McCain losing to Al Gore does produce a chuckle or two, but it is just way to early to get excited about such things. A poll taken in 2006 about an election in 2008 before the first campaign ad has been run? Sorry, I can’t take it seriously.
It would be a different matter if this was December 2007 instead of December 2006. Since it is not, relax and enjoy the ride. It’s going to be a long one.
December 20th, 2006 at 6:56 pm
Woodrow,
This is ridiculous. “McCain’s losses are Rudy’s gains.” Are you serious? McCain is a mere 1 point below Rudy (who has a 46-46 score vs. Gore). Please. I’m all for Rudy chest thumping, god knows I do my fair share for McCain, but let’s be realistic here. It’s pretty disingenuous to claim that Rudy’s electoral viability is somehow vastly better than McCain since Rudy ties Gore and loses to Hillary in the polls as well.
Frankly, given how unpopular McCain’s Iraq position is with the electorate, it’s a testament to him that he is still 1 point away from Rudy.
December 20th, 2006 at 8:40 pm
I heartily agree with LJ since I’m a McCain supporter as well. Considering how fickle the public is, none of this is any surprise assuming it is accurate.
And what happens if in a year we find out that McCain’s Iraq position is correct? What if thousands more troops are sent and the situation is noticably better? What happens to his poll numbers now? I think Senator McCain deserves real credit for his stance. Unlike the Bush “I simply refuse to admit I’m wrong” McCain is agreeing that change is necessary but taking a very courageous position. It’s been famously said that “it is the soldier who truly appreciates peace” and McCain was, after all, a soldier. If he’s sticking to his guns about this I think he should be taken very seriously - and when he is proven right, which I believe he will be, the American people will see just how desperately we need John McCain in the White House.
December 20th, 2006 at 10:03 pm
These are registered voter polls which are not gounded in reality and favor the democrats particularily in the current enviroment. Also, Rudy fares no better as the 1% difference between his totals and McCain’s are within the margin of error. This blog is spinning one way and one way only.
December 21st, 2006 at 7:09 am
McCain has spent 6 years stabbing Bush in the back. We who are conservative and Republican don’t support him now. People who I know who have dealt with McCain say he is a real prick. If Rudy and McCain are pretty equal in the polls, I will support the one I like rather than the one I don’t.
December 21st, 2006 at 1:44 pm
Thanks for putting up the Polling site, it included the Marist poll which asked:
Who do you want to run in 2008?
Guess what………..from the polls of Nov. 27 to Dec 3 this year, Condi got 45% who said they
want her to run. 50% No. This is the largest support she has recieved in months. She was at 41% in September
and 39% in early February.
The Marist group is at least fair in asking the people who they want rather than shoving a bunch
of names in their faces. The Marist group seems to understand that Condi is gathering support
for doing her job and standing up for our nation.
No one is going to be able to complain that Condi has an unfair advantage by being a Cabinet member
if she does decide to step into the 2008 race. Look at all the headlines Newt is getting just for
saying that IF there is no clear frontrunner by Labor Day in 2007 that he will enter the race.
Can you image the worldwide headlines Condi would get if she said the same statement?
Wolf Blitzer also said on CNN, Dec 20, [this is for the Condi supporters, she is the highest
ranked member of the Bush Cabinet with a job approval rating of 57%. He added that her negative
of 35% might be based on the low numbers of Bush)
I have one question which no one seems to be able to answer. When Frist, Allen, and Santorum dropped
, who did those people go to? Rudy or McCain or was it to another conservative?
Does Jim Gilmore think he is going to get those votes?
The people who supported Frist, Allen, and Santorum might be disappointed, but I doubt they are
going to Rudy or McCain.
I also think the Condi votes are also a way to say those voters do not support Rudy or McCain either
and yet they are not quite so right-wing as the others.
Bill Schneider said on CNN that there are 12 Republicans running or as possible contenders for 2008
he also said there are 24 politicans on the GOP, DEM, and Independents side.
So it going to be a long process to weed out the weaker candidates in the next year.
It is the national polls and state polls which matter in addition to money. It is the organized
efforts of people.
On that basis, Condi is still a contender. Thanks to the Marist people for making my day.
December 22nd, 2006 at 7:18 am
Polls show Rudy leading McCain among Republicans, McCain leading Rudy among Democrats. So I would guess conservatives would be more likely to go to Rudy. As for Condi, she says she won’t run and although Bush is getting a bad rap on the war, Condi would be tied to the war, too. That’s why I think Alberto Gonzalez for VP with Rudy rather than Condi.