I have steadfastly refused to publish an American Research Group poll until they included all of the major candidates in their polling. Well, that time has arrived. These results are truly amazing…

American Research Group, 600 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Goers, Dec 19th-23, 2006:

Rudy Giuliani 29%

John McCain 24%

Newt Gingrich 19%

Chuck Hagel 7%

Mitt Romney 7%

Sam Brownback 1%

Mike Huckabee 1%

George Pataki -

Duncan Hunter -

Tommy Thompson -

Jim Gilmore -

Undecided 12%

Yes, you read that correctly. Rudy Giuliani is up by 5 pts. on John McCain and Mitt Romney is tied with Chuck Hagel (of course, the margin of error is 4 pts.)

American Research Group, 600 Likely Nevada Republican Caucus Goers, Dec. 19th-23, 2006:

Rudy Giuliani 31%

John McCain 25%

Newt Gingrich 22%

Mitt Romney 4%

Sam Brownback -

Jim Gilmore -

Chuck Hagel -

Mike Huckabee -

Duncan Hunter -

George Pataki -

Tommy Thompson -

Undecided 18%

American Research Group, 600 Likely New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters (79% GOP-21% Independent), Dec 19th-23, 2006:

John McCain 29%

Rudy Giuliani 25%

Newt Gingrich 14%

Mitt Romney 9%

Chuck Hagel 2%

George Pataki 2%

Jim Gilmore 1%

Mike Huckabee 1%

Sam Brownback -

Duncan Hunter -

Tommy Thompson -

Undecided 17%

And now for the big one…

American Research Group, 600 Likely South Carolina Republican Primary Voters, Dec.19th-23, 2006:

John McCain 35%

Rudy Giuliani 28%

Newt Gingrich 15%

Mitt Romney 5%

Mike Huckabee 1%

Jim Gilmore -

Chuck Hagel -

Duncan Hunter-

George Pataki -

Tommy Thompson -

Undecided 16%

The margin of error for all of these polls is 4%. So basically we have Rudy ahead of McCain above the margin of error in Iowa and Nevada. Within the margin of error with McCain in New Hampshire, and down by 7% in SC. This is the 3rd poll of likely Iowa Republican Caucus goers that shows Rudy leading in Iowa.