GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Rudy, McCain, and?Romney now considered frontrunners for GOP nod, sayeth CBS.
Finally catching up with what many of us here at R4′08 have been saying for months, the MSM is acknowledging?the winnowing of the GOP 2008 field down to three?men, even more than a year before the first votes are cast by caucus-goers in Iowa.
CBS News names Rudy, Romney, and McCain as the pool out of which the prospective nominee will be chosen, largely due to the?perception that only these three candidates, for different reasons, possess the ability to raise the 80 to 100 million dollars it will take to run a successful campaign in ‘08.? CBS refers to the trio as the “top tier” of the GOP field, while deeming everyone else, “long-shots.”
And, of course, the caveats:
“Yet, all three also have positions that raise alarms with the GOP’s vitally important conservative base:
_ Long viewed skeptically by conservatives for his renegade streak, McCain has further agitated them with his position on immigration and his involvement in avoiding a Senate showdown over Bush’s judicial nominees.
_ Romney insists that he opposes abortion and is a defender of traditional marriage. Yet, he voiced more liberal views when he ran as a moderate in his 2002 gubernatorial race and in a failed 1994 Senate bid. He’s drawn fire from leading conservatives for such inconsistencies.
_ Giuliani is a social moderate who supports gun control, same-sex civil unions and abortion rights, stands that run counter to the positions of the GOP’s right flank.
Those apparent deficiencies _ in the eyes of conservatives _ may leave a spot in the field for someone with less-shaky right-wing credentials, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who the party’s base reveres. He says he’ll wait until fall to decide whether to seek the nomination.”
For the record, I don’t think Republicans will be screaming for a Newt candidacy in fall ‘07, if only because the man is still seen as such a lost cause as far as electability is concerned.? Note that I highly respect Newt and think that if he had been at the helm of the GOP for the past six years instead of its current leadership, we’d have closer to 250 seats in the House in January instead of just over 200.? But I just don’t think Republicans will go with someone who’s main downside seems to be electability given the likelihood that a Democratic win in the presidential race in ‘08 means a unified Democratic government.? It seems to me that the GOP field really is down to three?individuals, whether conservatives like it or not.?
December 30th, 2006 at 9:59 pm
Woohoo, comments are working again!
It seems to me that the GOP field really is down to three individuals
Yup. What’s even more surprising is that the Dems seem to be down to 3 as well in Hillary, Obama and Edwards. Among the 6 candidates, we have such a huge variety of people. The first woman, black, Vietnam vet/POW, Mormon, Italian and a trial lawyer (heh). There’s something for everyone.
December 31st, 2006 at 9:01 am
True movement conservatives have no representation at this time. McCain, Giuliani and Romney do not appeal to me in the least. Forced to choose of the 3, I would choose Rudy over the other 2.
My true choice is Duncan Hunter, because I believe he comes closest to what I represent, (other then his voting no on the Jeff Flake anti-ear mark amendments). I do not believe Newt is going to run and I would support Tom Tancredo over Hunter, but he isn’t going to run either.
December 31st, 2006 at 1:44 pm
I have been a movement conservative for a long time. I like Rudy.
December 31st, 2006 at 1:55 pm
Michael,
Interesting. You seem to be searching for a candidate that is the most ideologically pure, no matter their electability. I’m curious though as to why you picked Hunter over say, Sam Brownback.
December 31st, 2006 at 2:52 pm
“True movement conservatives have no representation at this time.”
I’ve often wondered what would’ve happened if, say, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty or SC Gov. Mark Sanford had declared early on that they were going for the gold. I think that movement cons may have found in them what they thought they had found in GWB back in the late ’90s. But as of now, it’s just too late. I mean, Tommy Thompson is pretty close to what movement cons are looking for on paper, but it’s hard to take him seriously given his lack of organization, money, no proven ability to raise the cash needed to compete, and no superstar status that allows him to play catch-up.
December 31st, 2006 at 4:27 pm
LJ,
Brownback is Pro-Amnesty and will vote yes on the McKennedy bill.
December 31st, 2006 at 4:56 pm
Michael,
Ah, yes. That’s true. But personally, Duncan Hunter is way too protectionist and big government for me. He voted for NCLB, Sarbanes-Oakley, the Medicare Part D bill, the Highway Bill and the 527 bill (even though he opposed McCain-Feingold initially). He also voted against NAFTA and CAFTA and all of Flake’s anti-earmark bills.
December 31st, 2006 at 5:54 pm
LJ,
It is true what you say about Hunter, (I have previously mentioned his voting no on the Jeff Flake amendments.)
But I not support a Pro-Amnesty candidate and it appears that Brownback & McCain will be voting yes on the bill and in statements, Rudy G. seems to be Pro-Amnesty as well.
December 31st, 2006 at 6:21 pm
Michael,
Obviously, as a McCain guy, I don’t agree but I can respect that position. We all have issues that we won’t compromise on. But I wonder, given that President Bush himself is one of the biggest backers of immigration reform, do you still support him?
December 31st, 2006 at 7:29 pm
Interestingly, just as the MSM is starting to acknowledge the “Big Three” I’m thinking of it being chopped down to the “Big Two”. Romney was absolutely hammered this month on what he said in the past, and it is doubtful that his pounding by the media will come to an end soon.
January 1st, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Most folks have short memories or don’t do their homework.
When Sam Brownback first ran for the United States House of Representatives he did so as a moderate, with the strong backing of pro-choice elements within his state and congressional district. If he gains traction as a presidential candidate this will be pursued, though for now the frenzy on the 2008 GOP presidential side regarding conversion versus flip flopping is limited to Governor Romney because he is perceived as a higher profile candidate.
January 1st, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Grant, I would be interested in hearing how and why a movement conservative supports Mayor Giuliani. Thanks.
January 1st, 2007 at 2:47 pm
The media has done a pre-emptive strike on Romney. He hasn’t announced anything yet but they are pounding him hard. Some are hoping to nip his candidacy in the bud but I think the Romney campaign will survive. He’s taken the blows because he’s still governor and not a presidential candidate. Once he starts to actual campaign full-time he will find a way to combat these inconsistencies. It’s better to be the first candidate to be pounded by the media than the last.
January 1st, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Fredo,
In response to LJ, I’m not fond of his support of Part D but let’s face it–a lot of GOP Reps toed the line for W when he still had a lot of chips to play.
That argument only works so far though. It’s a bad law, it was the first new entitlement since LBJ’s Great Society and it vastly expanded the federal deficit. How is any of that conservative? McCain, on the other hand, voted against Part D as well as the Highway bill and supports Jeff Flake’s anti-earmark amendments.
I had to wonder if Mitt was smiling about these letters getting released now. So long as he is able to keep his team intact over the next couple of months, this will have long since blown over when the actual votes start getting cast.
But that’s the thing, it won’t “blow over.” It will forever become of the national narrative on Mitt Romney’s candidacy. It’s already included in every article I’ve seen regarding Romney over the past month and whenever TV pundits talk about him, it’s almost obligatory to bring it up. Mitt is still incredibly unknown nationally and first impressions are key. In order for him to have any chance at winning the nomination if he goes against McCain and Giuliani, he’ll have to have locked up virtually all of the social conservative primary voters. If this costs him even 10-20% of that support, he’s dead in the water.
January 2nd, 2007 at 12:15 pm
“What’s even more surprising is that the Dems seem to be down to 3 as well in Hillary, Obama and Edwards.”
Not only are the Reps and Dems down to three major candidates, there is an interesting similarity between the choices. Each party has a media/ insider appointed frontrunner (Hillary/ McCain) and a “rock star” candidate (Obama/ Giuliani). And both parties have a pretty boy candidate who won a single statewide election in a state controlled by the other party by running two the center, but now campaign as the authentic voice of the party activists (Edwards/ Romney).