GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
In what is the first dirty trick in the oncoming war for the Republican nomination, a goon of one of Rudy Giuliani’s chief “rivals” (hmm…) seems to have “acquired” the huge 140 page binder filled with confidential information, which was conveniently “left behind” at Rudy’s Manhattan fundraiser last month.
The plan does, apparently, address some of the issues that are thought to possibly be a detriment to Giuliani’s bid, and outlines an aggressive fundraising and organization building plan for Rudy that will catch up to McCain organization-wise and will raise $100 million in 2007 at 250 different gatherings, with $25 million being raised in the next three months alone at 50 events.? Rudy will utilize a fundraising technique similar to the Republicans’ 2004 technique, calling $1 million donors “Team Captains,” $200k donors “MVPs,” $100k donors “All Stars,” and $50k donors “Sluggers.”
At least one of Rudy’s major fundraising offices will be located in California, a state rich with talent, funds, and, obviously, electoral votes.
Regardless, I can hardly assume the shocking new revelations of Rudy’s top secret game plan aren’t much more than what we have been discussing in the blogosphere for months now, but there is question over how much ado will be made of this.? Perhaps Rudy was right when, as NYC Mayor, he kept a tight inner circle and didn’t let such information fall out of sight.
January 2nd, 2007 at 10:48 am
Sounds like the McCain campign. Of course McCain memo has that thing about talking with Kerry about being his veep.
January 2nd, 2007 at 11:53 am
This is typical of a man who put the Emergency Command Center for NYC in the World Trade Tower, sitting right over huge tanks of diesel fuel. A man who boasts he cuts taxes while he was actually BORROWING $30 BILLION. Rudy Giuliani is simply NOT COMPETENT. In fact, many times in his past he was pretty much not all there.
And Giuliani is running because of NATIONAL SECURITY — and he can’s even keep secure his own campaign plan? That’s the problem with this story — it undermines his main strength, the security issue. He goes from Hero to Bumbler on security and immediately brings up his Command Center/WTC decision among many other blunders.
PLUS his concerns are outlined for the liberal press to jump all over!! THis is a disaster!
HUCKABEE in 08!!
January 2nd, 2007 at 12:00 pm
The press will now investigate and replay for everyone the 5 main Giuliani
January 2nd, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Scandals, and in the Kerik Scandal Rudy will be involved as he knew Bernie was palling around with mobsters and he did NOTHING!
January 2nd, 2007 at 1:22 pm
The document was not leaked as much as it was misplaced by folks who should have been able to control it. Of course once anyone with sympathies for a 2008 opponent got their hands on it the document was going to be shared with the media.
Obviously such a strategic document should have been strictly controlled and accounted for. Taking copies of it out on the road, where it is subject to lost luggage in airline terminals and scrutiny by hotel housekeeping personnel was not a good idea unless absolutely necessary.
One of the biggest problems with this incident for the Giuliani campaign is that it reflects their staff is not anywhere close to being ready for prime time.
January 2nd, 2007 at 1:28 pm
This incident means that the Security Issue is now kind of a joke for Rudy, while his mentioning of the Kerik problem and others will mean the media will have a field day!
January 2nd, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Two thoughts:
First, what was revealed by these deep, dark secret files? It sounds like pretty tame stuff that any political observer could have been able to predict. If it detailed dirty tricks it might be something, but it doesn’t appear to do so.
Second, Kavon brings up an interesting point. A President has to run a country, not just one city. Can Rudy’s executive ability scale up?
A President must be able to delegate major responsibilities. That implies two things. One, he has to be able to let go. Two, he must be able to find and recruit good talent.
A national campaign will be a good way to find out if a candidate can do this. By its very nature, there will be key operatives working beyond the immediate control of the candidate. He will have people acting in his name from Alaska to Florida, from Maine to Hawaii. Does Rudy have the ability to run a tight ship when whole chunks of it are operating out-of-sight? Does he have the ability of finding and recruiting talent that he can safely delegate major responsibility to, or is he a prima donna that must have his personal finger in every pie?
The next few months will be telling. If there are too many of these sorts of unforced errors, there will be legitimate cause for concern.
January 2nd, 2007 at 4:38 pm
I agree with Republius. The leak brings up two points.
1. This is a huge rookie move by the Giuliani team. If you are going to take such an important document out of the campaign headquarters, for God’s sake, don’t leave it in a hotel!
2. The plan itself outlines just how far behind Giuliani is in the organization game. Anne Dickerson writes that Rudy should try to lock up several high-level fund raisers that, it turns out, have already been scooped up by McCain and Romney. It seems doubtful that he could manage to raise $100 million in one year ($25 million in 3 months) if his main donors are either gone or non-committal. After his disappointing donor gala last month where he only managed to raise $800K, the goal seems even more far fetched.
This could potentially be disastrous for Rudy’s nascent campaign. If he is serious, he needs to lock up big name financial support immediately. Word has it that McCain will release another donor list by the end of the month. The talent in the country is finite and Rudy could fast find himself shut out if he doesn’t do something.
January 2nd, 2007 at 4:49 pm
the bottom line is taht regardless of this thing, RUdy always was an extremely long shot for the WH, let alone to get nominated/
Without going into just how a pro choice, pro gay rights, pro gun control, pro immigration reform candidate has any chance of winning a GOP primary(he has none), he faces near insurmountable odds in a general election as well.
among others:
1. No mayor has ever been elected President. In the last 50 years the President has always been either the VP or a Governor(See W, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, HW, Truman, Nixon, FDR, etc…). Only JFK won from the Senate and only Eisenhower won without elective experience. If Rudy ran in 2004 his 9/11 stuff might have worked, by 2008 most people will have forgotten about it. Again, not a positive trend.
2. No one with an ethnic name has ever been elected President. Just try and find a President with a vowel at the end of their name, you can’t. This also spells doom for Obama, who has a bunch of other negatives. Of course, if Rudy ran against Obama, one of them would have to win. But neither of them will be the nominee so it doesn’t matter. I don’t Ike as having an ethnic name since it has no vowel at the end and there is no one in US politics today comparable to Eisenhower, so it’s not really worth discussing.
3. There has only been 1 Catholic President, again not a good sign, and Rudy does not have the establishment creds of Jack, not to mention his father’s money and “connections” that helped him beat Nixon.
4. Out of elective office for 8 years by 2008. Again, no one has ever won the Presidency after having more time off thasn Rudy. Look at W, Clinton, Carter, HW Bush, Reagan Truman, FDR, all served within less time Rudy. Only Nixon had the 8 years off thing, and I don’t think he’s a good example to use for anything. Even if you count Nixon, one guy in 50+ years is not a god trend for Rudy.
5. No Italian has ever been President. Again, if he runs against a Hillary or Obama, they’d cancel each other out as far as firsts, but it’s still a bad trend.
6. No Northerner, let alone a Northeasterner has on the WH since JFK in 1960, and he’s the only one since FDR. Look at recent Presidents, they’re either from the South or from California. The odds of a New Yorker winning are very low. Hillary should pay attention to this. Again, a negative trend for Rudy.
7. His health status. Don’t thing that won’t be brought up, especially against a healthier younger guy like and Edwards or Obama.
In all, Rudy has no shot to win the GOP nomination, let alone the WH. No one has yet made a convincing case for him doing so given the makeup of the GOP electorate, it just won’t happen. Try an imagine a pro life, anti gay rights, NRA loving, anti immmigrant candidate winning the Dem nomination and you’ll get an idea of how likely Rudy is to win the GOP nom.
Rudy has a good thing going with his business, his new gal, his hero status after 9/11. He doesn’t need to spend a year getting torn to shreds in the GOP promary than another year getting torn to shreds by the media and the dems. It’s not worth it. I suspect he’ll realize this sooner rather than later.
He has loads of money coming in, and he has a cute younger woman in Judy to share it with. The WH simply isn’t worth him wasting his time on an idle quest. Maybe a VP slot depending on the nominee.
The fact is that barring any huge shock, John McCain will be the GOP guy in 2008 and he has been since 2001.
January 2nd, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Ike had no executive experience??? Ah…he was the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, Supreme Commander of NATO after the war, and President of Columbia University for gosh sakes!
January 2nd, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Kavon,
Jim said, “elective experience”, not “executive experience”.
Be that as it may, I still like Rudy’s chances over McCain’s. McCain has spent the last eight years insulting, demeaning, and just plain alienating large portions of the base. There is an old maxim, “Be careful of the enemies you make going up the ladder, because you will meet the same people coming down.” Napoleon said, “Any man who makes enemies unnecessarily is a fool”.
People have long memories. And if they don’t, his opponents will be there to remind them. Giuliani, while more socially liberal than most of the base, has not been rubbing their noses in it. Giuliani may not agree with them, but he at least treats their opinion with respect. McCain prefers to blast anyone who doesn’t see eye-to-eye with him.
January 2nd, 2007 at 5:57 pm
Here is another angle on this story. Maybe the “grand, super-secret plan” got left behind because it is so blatantly obvious. It seems pretty standard, strategic stuff. You can read the exact same list here and on dozens of other blogs, and in countless opinion columns. Change the name on the title, and it could easily become “The Huckabee plan”, or “The Hillary plan”, or “The Edwards plan”.
The Giuliani group is probably laughing themselves silly.
January 2nd, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Oops! Sorry Jim! I misread your statement on Ike.
January 2nd, 2007 at 7:08 pm
Kavon, no problem
Also, like I said, Ike is really an exception in Presidential politics along with Grant, Jackson and Washington.
If you’re a General who wins a generation defining war, you don’t need elective experience. Eisenhower won WW2 and received the surrender of Jodl for Germany in Reims. If Osama signs a document of capitulation Rudy’s presence, then I’d rethink it.
Like I said, he just has too many things to overcome. If it was just one, ok, but all of them?
Again, someone explain to me how a pro choice, pro gay rights, pro immigration, pro gun control, northeasterner wins the nomination while maintaining a straight face. It just can’t be done. Just imagine a pro life, anti gay, anti immigrant, pro NRA, southerner winning the dem nomination. That’s Rudy, but for the GOP.
The GOP nominee will be decided by the upcoming surge in Iraq. If the surge is seen as a success by the time the primaries roll around, McCain will win in a landslide and go on to win the WH in 2008. If the surge fails, McCain is done and it doesn’t matter who gets the nomination because the dems will win the WH. It’s really that simple.
January 2nd, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Of course, certain things could change the equation. For example, if McCain develops health problems between now and 2008, or has some meltdown that ends his candidacy. If you read the news, McCain is the chosen one by the GOP establihsment and by much of the Bush administration for that matter. Given that, I don’t really see how Rudy does it.
If the surge works and Iraq turns around then McCain is unbeatable as he is really the only advocate for a surge and outflanks Rudy on that issue alone. Combined with his war service, he locks up the natl security issue.
If the surge fails and Iraq is a mess, why would Rudy even want to be President? Whoever inherits it will like be a 1 termer like Ford or Carter in the aftermath of Vietnam.
In any event, a failure in Iraq means the GOP has no chance in 2008 no matter who they pick so I suspect Rudy would get out and concentrate on his money and Judy rather than getting blown out by Hillary or Obama.
January 2nd, 2007 at 10:26 pm
marK, i thought the same thing as you after investigating this story. Basically, anyone who reads posts on this site knows about Rudy’s weaknesses. This is hardly top-secret material. Frankly, I was heartened that his camp was taking the obsticals seriosuly. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing its existence and too often politicians just assume everything will turn up roses for them.
January 2nd, 2007 at 10:27 pm
marK. . .you said just what I was thinking. I’m not so sure this grand plan was accidentally left behind. There is nothing in there we didn’t already know - his ex wife, his campaign financial issues, all his liabilities are already known. We’ve been discussing them right here for months. In these days of Karl Rove and James Carville, isn’t it possible this was a smart way to get the bad stuff out of the way early? And, isn’t it better - and convenient - to get it all out at once rather than the Romney method of letting things get out piecemeal and having to react to each thing individually? Rudy can’t stand up at a press conference or campaign stop and say “my fellow Americans, here’s all the bad things about me.” But place the info in the hands of the “enemy” (especially the Daily News!!!) and you get it all out in the open for the media to debate, nearly two years before the election. My opinion: this was either a brilliant strategic move on Rudy’s part, or the best political blunder in the history of presidential campaigns.
January 2nd, 2007 at 10:30 pm
One more benefit: have the media cast aspersions on the other campaigns by questioning whether this was a “dirty trick” by a rival. Again. . .brilliant.
January 3rd, 2007 at 6:56 am
Jim is right we should never give an Italian, catholic from the Northeast a chance to be president. Do you know how discriminatory that sounds?
January 3rd, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Jake and John R are delusional. THis was a disaster for Rudy.
The US is being introduced to him as a Prez Candidate by seeing video of Kerik, Hanover, and Nathan INSTEAD of Rudy being the phony Hero of 9-11 at a 9-11 Press COnference!
It’s a complete and total disaster image/first impression-wise IMHO.
On top of that, there is ONE THING in the list of potential problems that stands out to me as something new, in that his Security Business is listed as a potential “insurmountable” problem.
This is new. proving this was no deliberate leak.
Why someone on this very blog could Google it and find out all kinds of insurmountable problems associated with it!
Uh — excuse me, I have to go!