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So says a front page story in The State this morning:
U.S. Sen. John McCain has locked up nearly every major Republican donor in South Carolina to lead his 2008 finance committee, including some of the top names of President Bush’s 2000 campaign.
With just a year to go before S.C. Republicans cast their ballots for the party’s presidential nominee, McCain has built a formidable team. It includes Bob Royall, Bush’s finance chairman from his 2000 Palmetto State campaign, as well as top Bush fundraisers Florence surgeon Eddie Floyd, Midlands venture capitalist Larry Wilson and Bill Stern, chairman of the State Ports Authority and finance chairman of Gov. Mark Sanford’s recent re-election campaign.
The Hotline explains why this is so important and the effect it will have on McCain’s other rivals in the GOP:
McCain’s advisers want to create an aura of inevitability around their candidate. That is, with every reckoned-with force in the party behind a McCain tidal wave, how could he NOT with [sic] the nomination? Creating that impression is especially important for a frontrunner as potentially vulnerable as McCain certainly is.
The gilded ranks of the party are comfortable enough with him, to which the State article testifies. But it’s the second tier of Republican Party elites in the states — the field operatives who served George W. Bush in ‘00, county party chairs, local ideological activists — the folks who have invested, at one point in time, in hating John McCain — who still need convincing.
A basic principle of psychology is at work: if you’re a Republican skeptical of McCain and nearly every Republican you admire jumps into his juggernaut, you’ll either surrender your doubts or, at the very least, be wary of publicly endorsing another candidate.
You won’t get a McCain aide to say this, but Team McCain wants Republicans who haven’t endorsed McCain to fear the consequences of endorsing someone else. If McCain is the nominee, his political team — John Weaver, Mike Dennehy, Richard Quinn — will essentially run the Republican Party and be in a position to punish or freeze out apostates. In at least three states including South Carolina, McCain’s political operation has injected itself in state chairman’s races.
Right now, McCain’s in a very impressive position in South Carolina. For the past year or so, I’ve remained somewhat skeptical regarding all the positive news about him coming out of the state. Several polls (both private and public) have showed McCain leading in SC by at least 5 points for a while. That always struck me as bizarre considering the level of bad blood on both sides for what happened in 2000 (the same thing goes for Iowa, where McCain skipped in 2000 because he opposes ethanol subsidies, yet he’s either first or a very close second there too). It seems though that it’s water under the bridge as McCain has assembled such an imposing list of financial and institutional support.
The way the Republican primary schedule is shaping up, the nominee will be decided for all intents and purposes by February 5th, 2008 (a mere 13 months from today). That’s why having such a broad based national organization set up early is the key to be competitive. McCain has that ability and to a lesser extent, so does Romney. Given the frontloading of the primaries, I’m not sure how Giuliani can really compete. Realistically, he’d have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire to be able to stay in the game and not see his support dry up. With the revelation that his fund raising operation leaves a lot to be desired, I still think there’s a chance (20-30%) that Rudy ends up dropping out before the primaries even start.
January 5th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
How do I post a new entry? I’m guessing you have to be one of the special leaders of this site. I just wanted to post the information on Romney’s recent pick-ups over the past 2 days.
January 5th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
RayB,
Email the info to me at kavon_w_nikrad@yahoo.com and I will take a look at at.
-Kavon, Founder/Editor Race 4 2008.
January 5th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
Great news for Team McCain and his supporters. This is the perfect example of how coming in 2nd the last time prepares a candidate for running the next time around. McCain started early, locked up the majority of the Bush/Cheney “A” Team, and is working hard towards created a sense of inevitability.
January 5th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
I don’t know if I agree that McCain would be ruined over the surge. What if we try the surge and in six months it’s still a mess? A hell of a lot of Republicans already don’t want to increase troops but couldn’t McCain later come back and say, “I wanted to do everything we could to have the best outcome in Iraq but it’s just not working” and then say that the Iraqis aren’t stepping up to the plate and that the Sunnis and Shiites aren’t getting along.?
I don’t think that there is anyone on the GOP side that can get to his right on this issue for the nomination. And McCain can also plausibly argue that he didn’t agree with the execution of the war otherwise by the President. I don’t necessarily think this would sink him even though it could. One year from now we won’t be debating whther or not to have a “surge” and we’ll know soon enough whether it will have worked. Just my two cents.
January 5th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
I wonder why Boise State bothered to show up to the Fiesta Bowl for their game against Oklahoma last Tuesday. Oklahoma had it sewn up.
January 6th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
McCain’s support for the surge is a huge gamble, but if it does succeed in turning Iraq around, McCain will probably wind up getting more credit than the current administration and would go a long way in persuading Republicans currently on the fence or leaning towards another candidate to back him.
January 7th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
[...] Even if Rudy does somehow manage to raise the necessary money, he’d have to have a very sophisticated ground operation in place to compete with the McCain and Romney juggernauts. As I wrote in my post the other day, given the frontloading of the primaries, his operation would have to be ready at a moment’s notice. His advisers think that the longer he waits to fully declare his candidacy, the longer he can retain his luster of 9/11. They are, of course, correct. But Rudy’s astronomical poll numbers are actually very superficial. Unlike the other candidates with total national name recognition, Hillary Clinton and McCain, Rudy has not been nationally vetted and will be subject to intense smear campaigns by his rivals and potential Democratic opponents. The first day that Rudy announces will be the best of his campaign because his numbers cannot get any higher than they are now, they have no where to go but down. In contrast, everyone knows McCain’s strengths and weaknesses and that’s reflected in every poll on him (stronger with moderate GOP than with the more conservative voters). Conversely, Romney’s numbers (if he avoids being permanently labeled a flip-flopper before he even gets out of the box, anyway) will go up once more conservatives get to know him. No wonder Giuliani is so hesitant. by LJ @ 6:45 pm. Filed under Rudy Giuliani [Trackback URL] [link] Trackback URL for this post: http://race42008.com/2007/01/07/rudys-candidacy-is-not-assured/trackback/ [...]
January 7th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
[...] I’ve seen two posts now suggesting that Rudy Giuliani may consider dropping out. Political Insider says that the Mayor just hasn’t made up his mind yet. And in an article on McCain locking up SC donors, LJ of Race42008 says of Rudy: The way the Republican primary schedule is shaping up, the nominee will be decided for all intents and purposes by February 5th, 2008 (a mere 13 months from today). That’s why having such a broad based national organization set up early is the key to be competitive. McCain has that ability and to a lesser extent, so does Romney. Given the frontloading of the primaries, I’m not sure how Giuliani can really compete. Realistically, he’d have to win either Iowa or New Hampshire to be able to stay in the game and not see his support dry up. With the revelation that his fund raising operation leaves a lot to be desired, I still think there’s a chance (20-30%) that Rudy ends up dropping out before the primaries even start. [...]