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I’ve long held the belief that Rudy Giuliani’s future in the presidential horse race was not nearly as certain as my esteemed colleagues at R4′08 have predicted. Naturally, this is has been somewhat controversial around here. Yet, all the, admittedly anecdotal, evidence I’ve seen regarding the shape Rudy’s campaign has shown to me that unlike John McCain and Mitt Romney, Giuliani still has yet to completely make up his mind regarding whether he is truly serious about running for President of the United States. Today, Rudy’s advisers admitted just that to the Political Insider:
Those close to Rudy Giuliani say that while the former New York mayor is going full speed ahead on his presidential exploratory committee, it could be quite a while before Giuliani decides whether he will run — and that he is not certain about it. Giuliani advisers feel that their man’s high popularity means he can lay the groundwork for a campaign while postponing actual entry into the race, and still be in contention. The disclosure of the nascent campaign’s playbook indicates that Giuliani is all too aware of his potential liabilities — from his personal life and from his political stances — and some feel the later he jumps in, the longer he’ll be able to ride his post-9/11 popularity.
Most Giuliani critics will rush to point out that his social stances (pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control, etc.) are anathema to the conservative Republican primary voters and they’d be right. But that analysis is too simplistic. Rudy’s social stances will not prove fatal to his campaign, just as McCain’s support for Campaign Finance Reform, Immigration Reform, initial opposition to Bush’s tax cuts will not doom his campaign. Instead, Rudy’s hesitancy to fully commit to running is very telling. I’ve been saying since this summer that the longer Rudy waits to get serious, it’ll be much more likely that he will be unable to compete in the “invisible primary” that is already well under way.
It is certainly true that Rudy has undertaken several important steps in the organizational battle against McCain and Romney. He has locked up key operatives that would serve as the backbone of his campaign, he’s secured talented people to head up his communications department (although one wonders what good are communications when you have no one on the ground to get the word out?), but he’s done little else. Given the leak of Rudy’s lost (or stolen, depending on who you want to believe) 2008 plans, it raises some interesting and somewhat bizarre facts. Team Giuliani admits that they are way behind McCain and Romney in terms of financial and institutional support and plan to rectify that with a massive fund raising spree over the course of 2007 with the hope of reaching $100 million by the end of the year (just in time for Iowa), and a massive blitz to get $25 million by March. The only problem with that is most of the big name donors that Rudy had hoped to snag have already been scooped up by McCain and Romney. The Hotline released details of Romney’s financial operation and said that:
Several Republican donors said Romney hopes to raise at least $30 million by the end of June.
Since Rudy hopes to raise $25 million by March, that means that he, in essence, is trying to raise twice the amount of Romney in half the time. Perhaps he can pull it off, but considering Romney has a much more extensive fund raising outfit it seems doubtful.
Even if Rudy does somehow manage to raise the necessary money, he’d have to have a very sophisticated ground operation in place to compete with the McCain and Romney juggernauts. As I wrote in my post the other day, given the frontloading of the primaries, his operation would have to be ready at a moment’s notice. His advisers think that the longer he waits to fully declare his candidacy, the longer he can retain his luster of 9/11. They are, of course, correct. But Rudy’s astronomical poll numbers are actually very superficial. Unlike the other candidates with total national name recognition, Hillary Clinton and McCain, Rudy has not been nationally vetted and will be subject to intense smear campaigns by his rivals and potential Democratic opponents. The first day that Rudy announces will be the best of his campaign because his numbers cannot get any higher than they are now, they have no where to go but down. In contrast, everyone knows McCain’s strengths and weaknesses and that’s reflected in every poll on him (stronger with moderate GOP than with the more conservative voters). Conversely, Romney’s numbers (if he avoids being permanently labeled a flip-flopper before he even gets out of the box, anyway) will go up once more conservatives get to know him. No wonder Giuliani is so hesitant.
UPDATE: Soren Dayton, of the excellent EyeOn08 blog, adds some other obstacles for Rudy Giuliani (and his newly trademarked name). When the NY Daily News article about Rudy mentioned that one of his main concerns were the clients that his private sector firm represents, I was quite intrigued. In a follow up article, it seems that Rudy’s clients represent some, shall we say, unsavory interests:
In the five years that Giuliani has worked in the private sector, his clients have run the gamut, from gambling interests like the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, which may further trouble Christian conservative voters, to large power-generators like the Atlanta-based Southern Co., which environmentalists regard as among the worst polluters in the nation.
He has lent his name to every corner of the energy industry – representing nuclear, oil and natural gas concerns – and worked with the pharmaceutical industry to keep cheap prescription drugs from flowing into the U.S. from Canada.
And that’s just what is publicly known.
That doesn’t bode well for America’s Mayor.
January 7th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Good article on 2008.
http://www.iowansforromney.com
January 7th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
If nothing else, I think 2008 will be a lot less interesting if Rudy chooses not to get involved.
January 7th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
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January 7th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
You guys are nuts. You don’t get DuHaime as campaign chief and get Bill Simon to raise big bucks if you aren’t in. Katie Levinson doesn’t do this as a hobby. More news to follow this upcoming week.
January 7th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
What’s so interesting about Rudy?
January 7th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
What is most interesting about Rudy is that he is the most likely Republican to win the general election.
January 7th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Since when?
January 7th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
The National Thoroughbred Racing Association? Oh no! Does this mean Rudy supports (gasp!) games of chance?
January 7th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
What’s so interesting is that he cut taxes, stood up to the ACLU, made NY City governorable, dealt with a terrorist attack, prosecuted the mob, went after the “artists” who defiled the crucifix at the Brooklyn museum, and is the strongest defender of Israel in the field. Other than that he can win NJ and maybe NY and Conn. He’s also not 70 years old and hasn’t twisted himself in a pretzel on social issues.
January 7th, 2007 at 10:52 pm
Don’t forget Pennsylvania.
January 7th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Don’t forget that he’s a R.I.N.O like Bloomberg. I may be unimpressed by Mitt’s record on the social issues, but Rudy is just appaling on them.
January 7th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
But Dave and Ravens that is only if you care about winning. If you are on a quest to find some replica of Ronald Reagan, however fraudulent, or you think McCain can get through an election cycle without blowing a gasket(come on guys, don’t you know in your hearts he’ll have a snarling “stop lying about my record” Bob Dole immitation moment?)then keep passing around the Rudy gossip, pretend Hillary is just going to evaporate and pray Huckabee is going to emerge from nowhere to rescue the party. I’ll be waiting back in the real world.
January 7th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
Virginian,
You don’t get DuHaime as campaign chief and get Bill Simon to raise big bucks if you aren’t in. Katie Levinson doesn’t do this as a hobby. More news to follow this upcoming week.
Well, Rudy’s own advisers (presumably Dickerson and maybe even DuHaime himself) say he is not nearly as 100% as many of the other candidates are. For the record, since I guess my post wasn’t clear enough, I think Rudy is “running” but whether that means he stays in the race for the whole thing or withdrawals before the primaries is still an open question.
Ravens Fan,
He’s also not 70 years old and hasn’t twisted himself in a pretzel on social issues.
Well, he’ll be 64 in 2008, but that’s neither here nor there. But he faces a myriad of issues that could derail his candidacy before it even begins. The fact that Rudy has shown real hesitancy toward fully committing himself to running and is now delaying a verdict for several months must be disconcerting for Rudy fans.
January 7th, 2007 at 11:42 pm
LJ, I think you have written a great and important article that deserves wide circulation and ought to be heeded here and throughout the conservative and Republican world.
I agree that it is Rudy’s private personal and business life and some acquaintances in government that are the cause for the hesitation, and not his socially liberal policies, which are largely rendered moot at the federal level esp given his position on judges.
I suspect he will decide to run and can overcome the baggage, but it may well turn out that Hugh Hewitt is right when he says Mitt’s Mormon baggage is the lightest any major candidate carries!
January 8th, 2007 at 1:21 am
LJ, on a purely technical and trivial point, I think Ravens Fan was talking about McCain’s age (72 on election day), not Romney’s (61 on election day).
Ravens Fan, what is Rudy’s appeal to you on fiscal issues, given that he lowered taxes and balanced the NYC budget only through bond gimicks?
In 1995 the city owed $26.6 billion. When Mayor Rudy Giuliani left office, debt was $43 billion. Borrowing rose at about 5 percent a year in the last five Giuliani years. The Big Apple spends about 20 cents of every dollar just to cover interest on its loans. Am I missing something? Why is Rudy touted as good on fiscal policy? Anybody?
January 8th, 2007 at 2:22 am
LJ,
Supposing Rudy decides not to vote, who do you see his supporters lining up behind, if anyone?
January 8th, 2007 at 2:24 am
Correction on last question
LJ,
Supposing Rudy decides not to run, who do you see his supporters lining up behind, if anyone?
January 8th, 2007 at 5:08 am
I am with Virginian in finding it implausible that Mayor Giuliani would add to his campaign and finance teams the operatives and financial backers he has without being committed to run. You don’t tie those kind of people up at this juncture without convincing them you are in it to win it. So, with all due respect, I think this is wishful thinking on the part of those backing other GOP candidates.
I also disagree with the Hugh Hewitt fomulation that Governor Romney has the least amount of baggage among GOP presidential candidates. In one sense, Governor Romney has the most baggage because his credibility on fundamental and crucial issues – from abortion to gay rights to taxes – are being questioned to the point that he leads both sides of the aisle in the race to succeed Senator John Kerry as the candidate most likely to be thwarted by the flip flopper label. Hewitt is clearly a Romney backer, though he won’t admit it and claims neutrality.
What is sad is the lack of objectivity in reporting all of this. Too many are pursuing an agenda rather for their own horse in the race rather than parsing reality and the facts. We need to and ought to be able to do better.
January 8th, 2007 at 7:35 am
I agree Murphy. While I respect Giuliani deeply as an eliminater of waste, and a man with sincere dedication to various conservative economic ideas (school vouchers, welfare to work), I find the overall economic situation in New York during his tenure to be vaguely appalling. Even with significantly increasing state aid to NYC, Giuliani was forced to borrrow significantly to cover spending. While, much of this spending related to crime, it still gives me cause for worry. I don’t want tax cuts at the expense of deficits.
January 8th, 2007 at 10:15 am
And also don’t forget that this so-called “Republican” is also a staunch supporter of gays and lesbians and unlimited abortions of which New York City has one of the highest rates in the country.
January 8th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Peter,
What do you mean by “staunch supporter of gays and lesbians”?
If you mean the he supports the notion that whatever adults do in the privacy of their own home is nobody’s damn business, then yes I guess Rudy fits that bill (along with probably 90% of the American public).
Rudy is not, and never has been, for gay marriage. He has supported civil unions in the past which would put him smack dab in the middle of where most Republicans/Americans stand (including our current President I believe) on the issue.
January 8th, 2007 at 11:49 am
What is more Peter, unless you think the Mexico City accord is a big deal( it cuts off international aid for family planning outfits that fund abortion) all a President does in this regard is appoint judges. Look at Reagan-didn’t even appoint a strict constructionist judge. Rudy has taken the Alito/Roberts pledge. Good enough for most Republicans I think.
January 8th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
But Virginian, appointing judges is only one (very important) thing the president does w/r/t abortion. How about a few others?
1. Passage or veto of abortion related bills (Child Custody Protection Act, Partial Birth Abortion Ban, Born Alive Infants Protection Act, Unborn Victims of Violence Act, etc)
2. International aid for abortions (Mexico City accord which you mentioned)
3. Domestic funding for family planning programs which promote abortion
4. Federal funds to the U.N. Population Fund)
5. Influence on the public debate through the bully pulpit
To have a pro-abortion president on these issues is certainly NOT good enough for pro-life Republicans. There are candidates who can do much better than Giuliani on social issues.
January 8th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Virginian, you may also want to brush up on your SCOTUS history. The beloved Gipper nominated Bork (who was unfortunately rejected), appointed Rehnquist as Chief Justice, and appointed Scalia.
January 8th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
I find myself agreeing with LJ. I have no doubts that Rudy could be a formible opponent. I am not so much concerned about his stands on the social issues. The fact that he respects the opinions of those who disagree with him and has promised to nominate constructionist judges goes a long way in my mind of removing worries in that area. He is also a proven executive.
Yes, I would prefer someone more solid on social issues, but that is not what concerns me the most about Giuliani. I am concerned about his vigor or lack of it.
Running for the Presidency is not for the faint hearted. It is physically, intellectually, and emotionally draining. It has worn down many a candidate. And once you get through the campaign, there is the Presidency itself. It is just as challanging, if not more so than the campaign. You might get away with a day or two off during the campaign. You can forget about those once you are President. You are on the job 24/7. The best you can hope for is a working vacation.
Ronald Reagan was able to delegate a great deal. That helped eased the burden quite a bit. But few men with the egos necessary to become President are good delegaters. Romney is certainly one. Is Giuliani? I am aware of that guy he recommended to Bush for Homeland Security, but had to withdraw when it was discovered he had a shady past. What were the rest of his appointees like?
Does Giuliani have the energy, the vigor for the long haul? There is no question that he once did. Ten years ago, he likely would have leaped at the chance. But now? Perhaps his hesitantcy is saying something.
What is his health like? Is he up to a hard-fought run?
Giuliani is no fool. He is fully aware of the toll a full campaign will take on him. Perhaps that is why he is not committing sooner. If Romney and McCain destroy each other, Giuliani can run a relatively easy campaign. If it looks like he will have to fight it out with either or both of them, he may decide he isn’t up to it and bow out.
January 8th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
Rudy spells trouble for the GOP in that he will bring back the Culture of Corruption charge. Given that the Duke Cunningham Scandal is about to get a whole lot worse, this will be a disaster to have Giuliani as a candidate.
Rudy’s covering up for mobster Giddeon Chern, the fiasco of being business partners with Kerik, who is now under Federal investigation and has already pled guilty to what amounts to bribery, plus the clean-up fiasco at the Florida Anthrax building has not yet been covered by the blogs and the librul media.
But they definitely will be. Rudy mentioned his biz dealings as an insurmountable problem if played up, which was news to me. You can bet the media is already investigating .
January 8th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Gamecock,
Thanks, I appreciate that. The goal of the post was simply to highlight all the difficulties that lay before Rudy in his quest for the nomination that don’t normally get discussed as often as McCain’s or Romney’s do.
murphy,
LJ, on a purely technical and trivial point, I think Ravens Fan was talking about McCain’s age (72 on election day), not Romney’s (61 on election day).
Yeah, I should’ve been clearer in my reply. I was referring to Giuliani (not McCain) who will be 64 on election day.
TR,
Supposing Rudy decides not to run, who do you see his supporters lining up behind, if anyone?
Interestingly enough, if you look at the Republicans who support McCain, Rudy and Romney, respectively, you’ll find that Rudy and Romney supporters overlap quite a bit. Right now, the anti-McCain vote is split between the two of them. But if Rudy drops out, the anti-McCain voters will be much more likely to unify around Romney, which could prove disastrous for McCain’s chances at capturing the nomination.
Republius,
I am with Virginian in finding it implausible that Mayor Giuliani would add to his campaign and finance teams the operatives and financial backers he has without being committed to run. You don’t tie those kind of people up at this juncture without convincing them you are in it to win it.
As I have explained previously, I think Rudy is “running”, but I’m not sold on whether he can realistically overcome his organizational disadvantages and potential conflicts of interest with his clientèle. You seem to be missing the fact that his own advisers said “it could be quite a while before Giuliani decides whether he will run — and that he is not certain about it” So I wrote the post trying to explain why he’s so much more hesitant than McCain and Romney whose own problems are also serious.
So, with all due respect, I think this is wishful thinking on the part of those backing other GOP candidates.
I’m very sorry you feel that way. Yes, everyone knows I have my preferred candidate, but I pride myself on being an objective analyst of the facts, wherever they may lead. To claim that I wrote this post simply to pimp McCain and drag down Rudy is ridiculous. Especially since I’m of the opinion that if Rudy withdrawals from the race, it’s much more likely that McCain will not win the nomination.
marK,
I find myself agreeing with LJ.
Uh…has Hell frozen over?
Perhaps that is why he is not committing sooner. If Romney and McCain destroy each other, Giuliani can run a relatively easy campaign. If it looks like he will have to fight it out with either or both of them, he may decide he isn’t up to it and bow out.
What’s clear from Rudy’s advisers and his own actions is that he thinks that his poll numbers will largely remain intact. But then again, we get back to his staffing problems. Sure, he’s secured Anne Dickerson, Mike DuHaime, Barry Wynn, etc. but he has not organization on the ground and he’s lacking financial backing he thought he would get. The other problem for him is Mitt Romney. Because Romney needs to increase national standing, those additional voters have to come from somewhere. There isn’t much overlap between McCain and Romney, so while Romney can attack him, McCain won’t really respond unless it’s particularly egregious. But there is a significant overlap between Romney and Rudy and any drop in Rudy’s numbers could well benefit Romney. Rudy just doesn’t seem to have the fire in his stomach for the Presidency like McCain and Romney do. Can he really go the distance?
January 8th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
LJ, it seems I’ve tipped my hand by assuming that any ambiguous quote must be about either McCain or Romney.
January 8th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
LJ,
The same question can be asked about McCain and Romney, can they go the distance?
I am quite confident that Romney can. The guy is hitting the ground with both feet running. It hasn’t even been a week since he left office and already he is holding a major fund-raiser in Boston today. I am reminded of Napoleon’s comment, “I may lose a battle, but I will not lose a minute.” It was only when he started to slow down that he started to lose.
What about McCain? You’re the McCainiac. What is his health like?
January 8th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I Like Mike says Gideon Chern is the issue of the campaign. I Like Mike needs to get out in the fresh air more. That kind of talk won’t promote Huckabee.
January 9th, 2007 at 12:20 am
marK,
What about McCain? You’re the McCainiac. What is his health like?
Everything I’ve read and heard him say is that his health is excellent. He just climbed the Grand Canyon his past summer and during the campaign made 343 campaign stops in 5 months. His mother is 94 years old and just spent the summer driving across Europe. He also hasn’t had any recurrences of his bout with skin cancer in 2000, he gets checked up about every 3 months. So it seems his health is pretty good considering everything he’s been through over the past several decades.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:10 am
I said Gideon Chern WILL be the issue in the campaign that will sink Rudy, no one outside of NYC knows who Chern is… YET.
January 9th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
‘I Like Mike‘,
I think Grant was trying to point out that mindlessly tearing down Huckabee’s opponents won’t help him here. What persuades people (at least the ones that normally vote Republican) are well thought out arguments, not just sphagetti-at-the-wall-hoping-something-sticks blasts either pro-Huckabee or anti-opponent.
You will find that you will get far more traction here if you assume that your opponent’s supporters have a brain and can think for themselves.
LJ,
It sounds like 2008 is coming down to:
(a) The vigorous ones (McCain and Romney)
(b) The famous ones (Giuliani and McCain)
(c) The executive ones (Giuliani and Romney)
Take your pick. I personally prefer vigorous executives. You seem to cotton to famous vigorous people. A good share of the base likes famous executives.
Since Americans generally prefer executives for Presidents, and since Republicans seem select the famous (nod to Kavon), it would appear that you and I are both out of luck.