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He’s everywhere these days. I figured since there has been so much ink spilled writing about him since the New Year that I would link to the major articles:
That should keep everyone busy for a few hours!
I would be remiss not to mention the extraordinarily impressive showing by Mitt Romney last night. $6.5 million! I agree with EyeOn08, that total should be a big warning to Rudy to stay out of the race (after Rudy only managed to raise a disappointing $800,000 in NYC). It’ll be interesting to see how both McCain and Rudy respond to this.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:13 pm
That’s not what Eyeon08 said. What he said was:
Romney overcoming one frontrunner? A longshot… Romney overcoming two frontrunners? I’ll believe that when I see it. That’s why it would be in Mitt’s best interest for Rudy to drop out. Because (for the 5,994,939,399 time!), Rudy’s support in polls is from self-identified CONSERVATIVES. This is born out in poll after poll after poll. The Right Wing of the Republican Party is Rudy’s base. Don’t believe it? Take it up with Cook/RT Strategies, Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, etc…
If Rudy drops out, Mitt will likely pick up the vast majority of his support. Not John McCain.
Also, the idea that John McCain or Rudy Giuliani are quaking in their boots because of Mitt’s 6.5 million yesterday is laughable. Like Hotline joked today, McCain’s already probably already got that many times over. And Rudy? Yeah… I’m really sure that the former Mayor of the financial capital of the world with more more rich friends than perhaps anyone in America who has spent the last 2 years making 3-5 speeches a week for $175,000 a pop as his side gig is really worried over $6.5 million.
The Romney event yesterday was a carefully choreographed, orchestrated event, that was specifically planned to generate exactly this response. They very likely knew in advance approx how much they would raise. They probably knew 3-4 weeks ago that their network of volunteers had raised this kind of cash. So they set the bar low at $1 million and proceed to smash it.
Comparing this to Rudy’s purposely intimate little fundraiser at a NYC hotel is really a stretch as well.
It is a free country people, and you are free to believe whatever you want. But if you buy that Romney’s spontaneously just opened up the phones and Shazam! the 6.5 million poured in, well I’ve got some Minnesota oceanfront property to sell you for a bargain basement price!
January 9th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
I think you’re positive thoughts about Rudy’s financial connections are misplaced Kavon. There is perhaps no better conceivable place to make moneyed connections then at the head of a huge venture capital firm. The idea that a man who has spent the vast majority of life in the public sector (Rudy) has more financial connections then one of the most successful businessmen in the world (worth over, by some estimates, half a billion dollars) really strains credibility. Romney is “Mr. Money” and “Mr. Business”. I’ll grant that perhaps McCain has a better financial operation then Romney at this juncture, but Giuliani is going to be hardpressed to match e. Now there’s no question Giuliani has been a prolific money-maker since 9/11, but an ability to bank large sums for speeches does not indicate an ability to create a substantial, sustainted, multi-tiered network of fundraising for a presidential campaign in the age of campaign finance reform. Even some of Rudy’s very good friends like Bill Weld are backing Romney.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
I just don’t understand a statement like “warning to keep out of the race.” What appalling arrogance. Romeny is currently holding at 4& of the electorate, has no foreign policy experience, has significant credibility issues and has offended Christian conservatives especially in his own state. The man who is currently leading in most national polls, who is the most well liked politician in contention in 2008 and the beloved Mayor of America is supposed to get out of the race because of one satged fundraiser. Sir, you (LJ) are a fool. As for the site, perhaps they need to reconsider your tenure here.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
Well Matt… You have on two separate threads stated that both McCain and Rudy have no chance against Romney in the money race. I find that premise deeply, deeply flawed and believe that it has more to do with your personal wishes than reality.
I mean no personal offense, but I have a sneaking suspicion that your knowledge of Rudy Giuliani begins and ends with the fact that he was Mayor of NYC.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Virginian,
Come on… Let’s play nice here.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Hmm, Virginian’s got all the guns blazing today.
1. 4% of the electorate — Numbers go up, numbers go down. I find it appalling that some people put so much faith in a general public that is paying no attention to 2008.
2. no foreign policy experience — This will matter far less than the ability to articulate foreign policy, not to mention the other issues in the race. Wait and see.
3. significant credibility issues — You seem to be ignoring the bulk of Romney’s record in favor of some Boston Globe sound bites.
4. offended Christian conservatives — Did I miss a memo on this one?
January 9th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
I think Virginian is over the top but the idea that someone as popular as Giuliani should be warned to get out is pretty silly and immature. It’s not a street pick up game. On #4 Murphy I think a slew of pro-lifers came out in Mass for Brownback today.
January 9th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
If someone cannot make a point without slinging insults, then it is not likely they had much of a point to begin with.
January 9th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
If I counted right, there were seven. And I don’t recall that avalanche of support being offended by Romney.
Good for Brownback though. With this new network of support (not to mention recruiting Miss America 2001 to his exploratory committee), Brownback’s well on his way to several very crisp ten dollar bills.
January 9th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
The list from Mass. represents people who head organizations with hundreds if not thousands of members. If that gets repeated in Iowa where Brownback is stronger it creates some discomfort for Romney. Also I think Murphy in this election people are going to want actual experience and not just someone who can give a foreign policy speech. Iraq is the big example that you can’t rely on experts because experts don’t all agree and sometimes give lousy advice. It may not be enought to say we have to fight the Islamic extremists. Also Romeny has been very shy on whether he supports the surge. He is going to either need to embrace Bush’s plan which is dangerous or come up with something very detailed of his own.
January 9th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
Great research, LJ! Those are some prime articles on McCain.
I do disagree with your take on the Romney v. Giuliani fundraising thing, though. First of all, Giuliani’s $800k actually quite impressed me. I believe in a post two days out from the fundraiser, I predicted he’d bring in somewhere between several dozen thousand to several hundred thousand dollars, expecting a number like $500,000 to come out of it. $800k was pretty darn good, I thought. Almost a million in one night. Like Kavon said, with Rudy the best is yet to come. Just hold on.
Also, Rudy’s Manhattan fundraiser was nothing like Romney’s. Rudy’s was just a cocktail reception with some close supporters, whereas Romney had the works: Rows of tables full of computers and fundraisers and telephones, yadda yadda–more like one of those PBS telethons. Two totally different types of fundraisers. I’m not trying to downplay Romney’s fundraising abilities, which are extraordinarily impressive and which prove that Romney belongs in the Top 3, but Rudy has only stuck a toe in the water so far. Let’s just wait on him before making such judgments.
January 9th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Polar Express,
By that reasoning, we may just want to narrow down the list of candidates to McCain and Condi, and be done with it? Foreign policy experience alone will not cut it, the race is going to be more complex than that.
Perhaps Romney has been shy on his view of “the surge” because the details of Bush’s plan have not even been released yet. Romney provided plenty of specific input on the report from the Iraq Study Group recently…after the report was released. I hope you would prefer someone who is thoughtful and deliberate, rather than someone who rushes to judgement on a plan without knowing the details.
January 9th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
I think any Senator or Congressman including Brownback, Newt and obviously McCain has foreign policy experience. On the Democratic side Richardson was UN ambassador. Romney also lacks any military experience(even Hucakbee was in the reserves) having gotten out of Vietnam so I think the argument is going to be that now is no time for rookies.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Huckabee was not in the reserves but he did stay in a Holiday Express last night.
Anyway, this is Romney’s plan, not to win by being the best candidate but by scaring everyone else out of the race.
He knows that if he shares the stage with a guy like Huckabee, he will not be the best one
up there. He has a lot of his own money and can hire up everybody. This money raising stunt was nothing more than that. He says he only hoped to raise 1 million, but if that was all he would have raised I think he would have been sorely disappointed. Trying to intimidate everyone out of the race is not going to work and I think that once the debates begin it will not be Mitt’s day anymore. I think it will be Huckabee in the end. Mitt just can’t buy values.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:41 pm
Kavon, I have never claimed that McCain and Rudy have no chance against Romney in the money game. I’ve simply disputed your deeply flawed assumption that a man that has literally spent his entire life building financial connections is somehow less financially connected then a man who has spent of his life in th public sector. I have no question that McCain and Rudy have fundraising prowess. Indeed, I suspect that McCain’s quite possibly eclipses Romney’s at this juncture (though I find literally no evidence to suggest that Giuliani is yet near either). But I took issue with your statement in the other thread that suggested that Rudy was somehow not concerned by the puny 6.5 million Romney raised in a single day (a record by the way, by a significant margin, since the creation of McCain/Feingold. That’s pure spin. As to how much I know about Rudy, I’ve read every single article you’ve posted on him during the last month and a half. And I’ve done a fair amount of research on my own. I like the guy, and would be happy to vote for him in the general election. But Mitt Romney was chosen to head the Winter Olympics in no small part because he’s one of the most financially well connected individuals in the country (Moneybags Mitt). Rudy and McCain are absolutely worried about yesterday’s events.
January 9th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
Another thing about Romney’s fundraiser. . .I congratulate him on his taking in $6.5 mil. However, I’ve run telethons, smaller campaigns and the like, and while they were not on the same scale as his, I do know that no one gets that many chairs, phones, and media into a room without knowing ahead of time what’s coming in. That $6.5 mil was not a suprise to his campaign. If it was, he should fire his entire communications staff for taking that kind of chance with the political media right there watching. Having said that, I’d be a bit jealous right now if I was one of the other candidates.
January 9th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
“Rudy and McCain are absolutely worried about yesterday’s events.”
And we know this because? I think it is closer to say the others are absolutely worried McCain can get on tv with millions of football fans watching and they can’t.
January 9th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Guiliani could raise many millions of dollars if he wanted to do the work necessary to make it happen. But I question whether he has the fire in his belly to raise the money and do the other tough work necessary to run hard and win the nomination and then the presidency. We know that McCain and Romney have the fire in the belly and the financial connections to raise enough money. I just don’t sense that Rudy has that burning desire. After years of turmoil and dissatisfaction in his personal life, Rudy finally seems to have a wonderful thing going. Why would he strain it by really running for President?
A prediction: by the end of January, Rudy will announce that he has decided not to run.
January 9th, 2007 at 11:31 pm
I’m a bit surprised at some of these responses, but let me answer as many as I can.
Kavon,
Because (for the 5,994,939,399 time!), Rudy’s support in polls is from self-identified CONSERVATIVES. This is born out in poll after poll after poll. The Right Wing of the Republican Party is Rudy’s base. Don’t believe it? Take it up with Cook/RT Strategies, Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, etc…If Rudy drops out, Mitt will likely pick up the vast majority of his support. Not John McCain.
I’m really confused. Perhaps you misunderstood what my post was implying, but I completely agree with you. In fact, I said basically the same thing you said yesterday in my replies to TR and Republius. I said: “Interestingly enough, if you look at the Republicans who support McCain, Rudy and Romney, respectively, you’ll find that Rudy and Romney supporters overlap quite a bit. Right now, the anti-McCain vote is split between the two of them. But if Rudy drops out, the anti-McCain voters will be much more likely to unify around Romney, which could prove disastrous for McCain’s chances at capturing the nomination.”
As everyone knows, I want McCain to get the nomination. Because of that, I want Rudy to stay in the race. I was pointing out that Rudy is actually Romney’s toughest competition; Romney needs to get through him in order to get to McCain.
Virginian,
Sir, you (LJ) are a fool. As for the site, perhaps they need to reconsider your tenure here.
Perhaps “warning” was too strong of a word to use, but isn’t this a bit much? If you have a problem with my writing, then show me where I was wrong and make your case. Launching into these sorts of attacks on me only serve to diminish your overall argument. I think you do ourself an extreme disservice.
Woodrow,
Also, Rudy’s Manhattan fundraiser was nothing like Romney’s. Rudy’s was just a cocktail reception with some close supporters, whereas Romney had the works
This is very good point. Comparing these two events are like comparing apples and oranges. The point that I tried (and failed) to make was that for Romney to get anywhere near the nomination, he needs to keep Rudy out of the race.
Mark,
A prediction: by the end of January, Rudy will announce that he has decided not to run.
It won’t nearly be that soon. More and more, I’m coming to the fact that Rudy’s trying the wait and see what happens with McCain and Romney. He has no reason to drop out now, even if he does have cold feet. It’s certainly possibly that if the Iraq surge fails, McCain’s numbers might fall and it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Romney fails to gain significant traction with voters despite his financial and organizational setup. In which case, Rudy could come up the middle and get the nomination. There’s still a whole year left before the primaries and anything can happen (and probably will!).
January 10th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Once again I find myself agreeing with LJ concerning Giuliani. No way is he dropping out in less than a month. If he can get the nomination easily, he will run. If not, he won’t. There is almost a full year before it comes to “fish or cut bait” time.
Another thing to think about. If he continues to drag out his entrance, his early supporters will start to get tired of playing footsie with him for it seems like forever and move on.
January 10th, 2007 at 10:34 am
I was at the reception for Huckabee’s book launch in Manhattan last night and i was much impressed. His book is quite interesting, and if I may so, a very good read!
January 10th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
#16 jake,
While there is good reason for cynicism, the story out of Boston is that they had $500,000 sewed up before hand, and were actually expecting around $2 million. That is why they published a goal of $1 million so they could brag that they doubled their expectation. That they more than tripled their internal goal took everyone by surprise.
If they were really expecting 6 million, and they wanted to be cynical about it, then it would have been more impressive to have had one telethon of a million, another with two million, and a final one of three million — the ol’ “bandwagon gathering momentum” scenario.
I wouldn’t be surprised if in the morning after they are asking, “Now what?” They may have gone further than they wanted to. They have now set a pretty high bar on expectations that they have to live up to from now on.
Have they picked all their low-hanging fruit? We shall see.
January 10th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Peter,
I think that you will begin to see much more of Huckabee in the coming days. I hope to see more him in the coming years. He is a man who can lead and has a message of hope for America. He is not the wealthy kid who grew up in the suburbs but a man who knows that hardworking people can succeed if provided tools like education and skills. I look forward to seeing him as the party’s nominee and think that he can and will win the White House in ‘08 if we are smart enough to give him the chance. None of the other candidates can do it if you ask me and none of them would be what the country needs right now.
January 10th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Polar Express #10 – here is a link to Romney’s view on the “surge.”
http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Iraq_Statement_1_10_07
I still find it humorous it is called a surge because that is simply not the case. It’s nothing more than sending troops sooner and making others stay longer so there are an extra 20,000 in Iraq at a particular moment. Simply put – more of our heroes away for longer periods from their families. But, this site is not about the Iraq war.
Peter #21 and James Boulder #23:
I listened to Huckabee on the Imus in the Morning show this morning and I must say that I was very impressed. I have already chosen my candidate and have made generation donations but I think Huckabee would be a tremendous asset to the 08 Republican ticket. I know that some on here want to see him at the top of the ticket and if that is what plays out I would gladly vote for him in the general election.
My only concern as I read through so many of these comments is the spite and vinegar so evident in so many people’s remarks. Why do we have to be so negative towards the candidate we have not chosen? I have a candidate and I support him but I am going to vote for whoever has the (R) next to their name come Nov ‘08. I wish we could maintain a positive, issues based campaign so our nominee doesn’t go limping into the general election. I know that is just a pipe dream but it’s still my pipe dream.
January 10th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Well said, RayB. I have tried very hard to refrain from saying anything negative about opposing candidates themselves (as opposed to their fundraising structure, and election prospects). On Huckabee, that’s been harder then I’d like. I will merely say, he’s not my brand of conservative. That said, I agree he’s an impressive fellow. In this field, perhaps only Romney eclipses him for charisma. I’d be fine with him at the bottom of the ticket.
January 10th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
I have long thought that Huckabee would make a great VP choice for Giuliani. It adds a little southern, religious right appeal and balances the ticket. I know that SC governor Sanford supported McCain in 2000, but if Giuliani asked him, he would make an incredible VP also.
As for Huckabee as the nominee, I like him a good deal, but he has all the same weaknesses as Bush. Weak on spending (just look at his Cato scorecard “F”) and immigration. I am afraid that many voters would see a Bush clone and Republicans have had all the heavy spending they can take. Bush’s approval ratings are very low and it is hard for the same party to hold the White House several terms in a row. We need a “fresh breath” candidate that is different from Bush.
January 15th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Huckabee would never accept a VP spot on Rudy’s ticket. He is a real Evangelical Christian unlike Bush who pretended to be one to get their votes. McCain is a Bush “clone” if you want to throw the term around.