GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
In the latest Gallup Poll, Rudy Giuliani has slightly widened his lead over John McCain for the Republican nomination.? Rudy now leads McCain 31 to 27%.? The removal of Condoleezza Rice as an option (which, in the crosstabs of past polls has been evidenced to steal numbers from Rudy) probably helped boost Rudy’s numbers this month.
A little lower down, both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are also showing small signs of improvement, with the duo now clocking in at 10 and 7%, respectively.? The rest of the gang hovers in the lower single digits.? It looks as though Romney is now becoming an upper tier candidate in the nation-wide polls.? It’s only a matter of time, in my opinion, before he breaks into the double-digits.
Here’s the full results:
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Gallup Poll. Jan. 12-14, 2007. N=412 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ? 5. |
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“Next, I’m going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . .” Names rotated. Rice was included in the list of candidates in 2006. |
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| 1/12-14/07 | 12/11-14/06 | 11/9-12/06 | ? | ? | ||
| % | % | % | ? | ? | ||
| Rudy Giuliani |
31 |
28 |
28 |
? | ? | |
| John McCain |
27 |
28 |
26 |
? | ? | |
| Newt Gingrich |
10 |
8 |
7 |
? | ? | |
| Mitt Romney |
7 |
4 |
5 |
? | ? | |
| George Pataki |
3 |
1 |
1 |
? | ? | |
| Tommy Thompson |
2 |
2 |
n/a |
? | ? | |
| Jim Gilmore |
2 |
n/a |
n/a |
? | ? | |
| Sam Brownback |
1 |
2 |
1 |
? | ? | |
| Mike Huckabee |
1 |
2 |
1 |
? | ? | |
| Chuck Hagel |
1 |
1 |
1 |
? | ? | |
| Condoleezza Rice (vol.) |
1 |
12 |
13 |
? | ? | |
| Duncan Hunter |
- |
1 |
- |
? | ? | |
| Someone else |
2 |
1 |
2 |
? | ? | |
| None (vol.) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
? | ? | |
| Unsure |
10 |
7 |
7 |
? | ? | |
| George Allen |
n/a |
2 |
2 |
? | ? | |
| Bill Frist |
n/a |
n/a |
4 |
? | ? | |
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Numbers on the Democratic side of things seem to indicate that John Edwards is making significant strides forward, while both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are stalling a bit.
January 17th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
I wonder if it is just a statistical screw-up of Pataki seemingly increasing his support threefold over the previous polls (though a whopping three percent is really nothing to write home about).
For my own edification, can anyone recall someone who emerged as a serious candidate ever coming in as low as guys like Huckabee and Brownback this close to a primary? I mean, these guys are nothing more than statistical “bloops” on the electoral radar right now (Jim Gilmore outpacing both?!).
January 17th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
John R,
Pataki does seem to usually float at the top of the bottom-tiered candidates–that is, of all the candidates in the 3% and lower category, Pataki usually seems to hover around the top, and sometimes even traverses into lower middle-tiered area, but rarely. I think this is due to the fact that Pataki has slightly higher name recognition than other underdogs thanks to 9/11, and also thanks to all the effort Pataki’s done in working his heart out to establish a strong presence in key primary states. He was one of the quickest and most decisive organization/staff/fundraising players of the early presidential season, and yet while his organization seems to be crumbling now, he still has a bit of an edge. Regardless, I consider any change of 2 percentage points or less to be within the “blip” range. Romney has gone from 4 to 7% in the past month, so something is up, and likewise Newt has gone from 7 to 10% in the past two months, so it can’t all be pure blipage. However, Pataki has been at 3%, 1%, and 1% in the past few months. I don’t think that’s anything significant, really. Call me when Pataki hits 5 or 6%, I say.
As for the other underdog candidates who are polling in the 1-3% range (i.e. Thompson, Gilmore, Brownback, Huckabee, Hagel, Hunter, etc.), I fully expect about half of this cadre of candidates to be out of the running less than a year from now. If I were a betting man, which I’m not, I would bet that Pataki, Gilmore, Huckabee, and Hagel will be out by December 2007. For the remainders, expect their numbers to climb in the coming months as the campaign trail becomes an actual campaign trail.
January 17th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
[...] Hagel has no chance of becoming president. The Republican base never warmed to his attempts to chart a McCain like course through the Congress. This is not to say that the base has ever really warmed to McCain, but at least he has some qualities most on the right admire. Consistently, Hagel has languished at 1% in polling of Republican presidential hopefuls. Perhaps now, it might drop to 0%? [...]
January 17th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Don’t bet on Huckabee being out, considering he is not even the least bit in right now and is still being talked about by some of the people who can turn out the votes. I think that if he does get in the race it will be a different day for the election. Huckabee has the charisma and message, not to mention he is the most motivating speaker out of the field thus far. He record is strong and it backs up his rhetoric. I see him as a contender once he
decides to contend.
January 18th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
The nytimes says that Huck will likely form the “explore” in a few weeks to coincide with his 1/30-1/31 Iowa trip.
January 18th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Peter,
Don’t make the mistake of taking anything that the NYT says about any Republican at face value.