GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Two weeks ago, I wrote a post that sparked quite a debate on whether Rudy Giuliani is really serious about running for President of the United States. I summarized my position thusly:
I think Rudy is “running”, but I’m not sold on whether he can realistically overcome his organizational disadvantages and potential conflicts of interest with his clientèle.
One of Rudy’s disadvantages is money, or the lack of it. I wrote that “since Rudy hopes to raise $25 million by March, that means that he, in essence, is trying to raise twice the amount of Romney in half the time.” I remain skeptical that he could reach that goal without a major restructuring of his fund raising operation (most of the main backers that Rudy had hoped to acquire had already been signed by McCain or Romney). Lo and behold, this past Thursday, the Hotline runs an article that shows that Rudy got the message:
Political aides to ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will reorganize his presidential exploratory efforts over the next two weeks, expanding his national finance team and adding staff in early primary states to try to transform the New York-centric operation into a credible national campaign.
But at the same time, he’s being hobbled by his own indecisiveness:
Giuliani backers have run into resistance among major fundraisers and with activists in early primary states because these activists are not convinced that Giuliani actually intends to run, his aides said. In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Giuliani lags behind Sen. John McCain and Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney in recruiting staff.
Perhaps Rudy could persuade the skeptics better, if he would stop doing things like this.
If Rudy is serious about really getting in this thing, and his people are taking pains to let it be known that he is, then more power to him. I just hope that he didn’t wait too long and can manage to catch up with McCain and Romney. Given that California is heavily considering moving their primary (for both parties) to February 5th, it’s all the more crucial that candidates have enough of an organization (both field staff and lots of money) in place to be competitive where it counts.
January 21st, 2007 at 5:59 pm
The biggest problem with a Mayor Giuliani candidacy is one that his supporters do not want to acknowledge. Should he somehow win the Republican Party presidential nomination it would cause a Civil War at the convention (on national television) and within the GOP, fostering a third-party conservative candidate in the 2008 general election for president and fueling talk that conservatives should break away and create their own third party permanently.
Giuliani would trigger a political nuclear option within the Republican Party should he obtain their nomination for president. Those who would lead it, fuel it, and participate in it are laying low - saying only for the record currently that he is an unacceptable option - but they would rise up and strike like they did when Colin Powell announced he was a Republican and was considering a run for the White House if a Giuliani nomination came close to fruition.
Say what you want about the other frontrunners for the Republican nomination, and they all have considerable baggage, but none would trigger this nuclear option within the party as Giuliani would.
January 21st, 2007 at 6:07 pm
I disagree Republius. I think Giuliani’s star-power makes him far more acceptable to serious conservatives then McCain. I fear the impact a McCain candidacy would have on the Republican party.
January 21st, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Matt, you are comparing apples with oranges, at a minimum, and being naive, at worst.
The fact that Giuliani may be more acceptable to the “average” conservative voter than McCain does not speak to the potential for civil war within the party due to a Giuliani nomination. Such a civil war would be started by the entrenched interest groups and activists, not the “average” conservative. They will obviously not start such an uprising if McCain wins the nomination.
The Family Research Council, Grover Norquist and all of his followers, the ACU, Paul Weyrich, David Keene, right to life groups (my goodness, Giuliani supports partial-birth abortion!), and all the usual suspects would rise up and demand satisfaction, just like they did when it looked like Colin Powell was going to run as a Republican. Find me a traditional and influential conservative interest group for whom Giuliani is acceptable. One doesn’t exist and they will go bonkers if Giuliani is anywhere close to getting the nomination, threatening to initiate all hell breaking loose.
January 21st, 2007 at 7:12 pm
I don’t think I’m being naive Republius. I don’t have a horse in this game. I couldn’t care less personally whether McCain or Giuliani would ignite a more significant Republican rebellion. I support Romney, and find Giuliani and McCain equally acceptable. But my unvarnished opinion is, none of the interest groups involved want anything to do with either McCain or Giuliani. Are you contending that somehow because McCain occasionally at least outwardly espouses social conservatism, they’ll be more likely to forget that they despise him? People discuss Romney’s abortion troubles, but I’ve yet to hear McCain make any explanation whatsoever for his 1999 “I wouldn’t support, in the short term, or even in the long term, the overturning of Roe v. Wade” or something to that effect. He simply feels free to change his position without even acknowledging that his new position, where he’d apparently support a constitutional amendment banning abortion, represents any substantive change. I just don’t see how Giuliani’s open social liberalism is terribly less acceptable then McCain’s half-hearted social conservatism. And I think that everyone is going to be more careful in attacking someone with Giuliani’s national stature (have you heard any aspirant say anything remotely negative about Giuliani yet?).
January 21st, 2007 at 11:02 pm
I’m a NH conservative and if Rudy Giuliani wins the nomination I will vote for a pro-life 3rd party candidate and consider changing my life-long Republican affiliation. I don’t mind him being in the Republican party and would be happy to see him as Director of Homeland security or something like that, but I cannot stomach him as the leader of the party.
I’m not a fan of McCain either, but I would hold my nose and vote for him if he’s the nominee. I would even consider voting for him in the primary if he looks like the only one who could stop Giuliani. I share a litany of concerns with McCain but he at least has a solid pro-life voting record. That comment about Roe is part of why he’s near the bottom of my list of Republican contenders, although he backtracked from it almost immediately.
As you might guess, I’m an evangelical who comes from what is termed the “religious right” wing of the party. I think there are hundreds of thousands who feel similar to me. Let me give you a little part of the picture why. This morning on sanctity of life Sunday my Pastor mentioned the travesty of partial birth abortion, describing how the baby is turned around and delivered with its toes and fingers wiggling then has its skull punctured and its brains removed. People like me for whom abortion is the most important issue would probably walk away from any pro-choice nominee and certainly one with a record of defending such a procedure. Can you imagine what Dobson would say to his many listeners? It would likely destroy the Republican party as we know it. Thankfully, I think Giuliani has almost no chance to win the nomination once the field is trimmed to 2 candidates.
January 22nd, 2007 at 12:35 am
With all the polls being thrown at us this early in the campaign, I would love to see one commissioned to find out how many independents would move into the GOP fold once the Evangelicals finally live up to their years-long threat to leave the party. While I respect everyone’s right as an American to hold whatever political beliefs they choose, I also feel that it’s the Religious Right to which Kevin refers which manages to keep the GOP from growing beyond the win-by-a-hair majority we’ve seen in recent elections (a majority we lost in 2006). I would bet that a majority of today’s self-described independents feel more aligned with the GOP but just can’t stomach the religious right enough to vote our way. I see it in my own state of PA, where in the past two elections Gov. Ed Rendell won the crucial group of independent voters surrounding Philly, the must-win block of voters for any statewide candidate. This after Tom Ridge, a moderate Republican, won it for us two elections prior. Time and time again those voters say the Republican Party is too conservative, and they are leaving in droves. It’s the reason we now have a Senator Casey instead of a Senator Santorum (wow it still hurts to say that). Now I’m as pro-life as the next guy, but I also recognize that Rudy Giuliani, no matter how he feels about abortion (he’s not the baby-killer Kevin makes him out to be), is a better choice than any Democrat running for high office. If it came down to Rudy or a Democratic candidate, do religious conservatives think for one minute that more unborn babies will be saved under the Democrat? Bolting to a third party won’t in any way imaginable save one unborn child, and will in fact do more damage to the pro-life movement than Rudy or any GOP candidate could ever do by helping to elect more and more pro-choice Democrats. Personally I’d love to see the “hundreds of thousands” of those in the so-called religious right make good on their threat. At least the GOP could then begin to rebuild that big tent Reagan constructed nearly three decades ago.
January 22nd, 2007 at 10:37 am
Giuliani for Secretary of Homeland Security!
January 22nd, 2007 at 11:08 am
jake,
You want to rebuild a big tent by kicking a third of your tent out? How does that work?
I bet the GOP could win a lot more votes if we would just back down on our refusal to give universal health care to everyone, too. Or maybe by just raising the minimum wage to $10.00 an hour we could win a lot more votes, too. But we don’t, because we know those are inherintly horrible and damaging ideas.
Being a political party isn’t about winning votes, jake - you know that. If we compromised on abortion and gay marriage, you say, we could be a winning party again. Well, I for one am not willing to compromise on core issues just to win votes. That runs contrary to what being a party is supposed to accomplish.
Instead of looking to kick people out of the tent, you should be looking for someone who can effectively explain our stances and positions to thsoe outside of the tent, get them to change their way of thinking, and join us under the big top.
If Giuliani wins the nomination, I am voting third party.
January 22nd, 2007 at 11:19 am
Getting back to LJ’s original point, I think Rudy has to start acting like he is running instead of acting like he is pretending to run. The large majority of the big money donaters in the Republican Party got their money over a lifetime of judging if an investment was real or not.
Right now the signs are way too ambiguous for them to commit any real cash.
January 22nd, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Ah, yes, the age old problem in politics: I can’t raise enough money because nobody takes my campaign seriously, and nobody takes my campaign seriously because I can’t raise enough money.
It would seem ridiculous for as high a profile candidate as Rudy to be lumped in such a category, but I suppose its possible seeing as how cw being so entrenched in the “he’s not really running” mentality and the astronomical amounts of money he needs to raise to be considered serious in this day and age.
Here’s a possible solution to Rudy’s Catch-22: Rudy could cut himself a hefty check to his campaign. Usually campaign managers advise against this, on the grounds that, once you give money to your campaign, donors are reluctant to do so, but in Rudy’s case I think the benefit (showing he takes this race seriously) would outweigh the negatives.
January 22nd, 2007 at 3:16 pm
HeavyM. . .I never advocated that the GOP should kick out a third of the party over the abortion issue, nor do I say we should give in to the pro-choice movement. On the contrary, if you read what I wrote you’d see that I think jumping ship to a third party is a foolish way to prevent the murder of thousands (millions?) of unborn babies. As I mentioned, not one single unborn baby would survive by you or anyone leaving the GOP and voting third party. That only empowers the Democrats and ultimately leads to even more abortions. My complaint is over the third of the party who for years has been threatening to leave if they don’t get their ideal candidate. It’s a threat that never comes to fruition. Like all those Dems who were supposed to move to Canada when Bush got elected. I offered to help pack their bags but I guess they all changed their minds. Evangelicals need to stop making idle threats and start looking at the big picture here. How is leaving the party going to lessen the number of abortions? How is leaving the party going to save unborn children? How is leaving the party going to attract people to your cause? Do you really think a third party based on pro-life ideals will accomplish anything constructive at all? You’re a scholar of American politics, you should know that one-issue third parties never make any difference in the political landscape. If you can tell me how a pro-life third party along with a President Edwards would be better for the pro-life movement and save more unborn babies than a President Giuliani, well I’ll join that third party with you. As I said, I am pro-life, but I would rather win an election in 2008 with a Giuliani and work within the party to elect constructionist judges, pro-life Senators, and conservative Governors, than lose to Clinton or Obama or Edwards and see millions more babies murdered. Being a political party IS about winning votes. It IS about getting more people into that tent. It’s about believing in your political ideals and working hard to get as many others to vote for those ideals, in order to WIN elections and get things accomplished. It’s NOT about “cutting and running” when your idea of the perfect candidate doesn’t get nominated by the majority of the party. A GOP which can’t win an election is just a bunch of people sitting on their collective ass complaining about the country but doing nothing about it. As vital as the abortion issue is, there are also many other issues affecting this nation that are too important to walk away from and place into the Democratis Party’s control. If Evangelicals leave, and the GOP splits, how is that good for anyone?
January 22nd, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Sean,
Did you bother to click on any of LJ’s links, especially this one?
In case you missed it, there was a big GOP to-do in Washington this past weekend. Tons of Republican movers and shakers were there ready to be schmoozed. McCain had a reception. Romney had a reception. Even Huckabee managed to put together a breakfast get-together. What did Giuliani do? Nothing, zip, zero, zilch, nada. Rudy was nowhere to be found.
Sean, I would love to see Giuliani run. I really would. He is the only GOP candidate with a decent shot at winning that has a competance resume in the same league as Romney’s. He is a good, solid executive — just the sort of person America needs in the White House. But I refuse think seriously about him until he gets serious about running. And if this is an example of his ability to make a tough decision, then I am beginning to have serious doubts about him.
Giuliani reminds me of the guy who keeps telling a girl that he is going to call her but never does. The girl waits by the phone, dreaming up excuse after excuse as to why he hasn’t called yet; all the time ignoring the signs that he really isn’t that interested in the first place. The girl thinks, “Maybe if I continue to flatter him, and give him my attention, and not see or talk to any of the other guys, he will call me.” “Oh joy, he looked at me! Surely he will call any minute!” So she sits by the phone and waits…and waits…and waits.
How long does she wait until she finally admits to herself that the phone call is never coming? Does she wait until he finally tires of the game and tells her flat out that it is over? Or does she take command of her own destiny and move on before then?