GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Cue that Drudge siren…
From ARG, as reported by the New Hampshire Union-Leader (numbers in parantheses are from the last ARG poll of New Hampshire in December):
- McCain 27% (29)
- Rudy 20% (25)
- Romney 20% (9)
- Gingrich 11% (14)
- All others - below 1%
- Undecided 21% (17)
For the Dems, it stacks up this way:
- Clinton 39% (27)
- Obama 19% (21)
- Edwards 13% (18)
- All others - below 2%
- Undecided 21% (17)
Poll is of 600 likely voters of each party. MoE is 4%.
And the race begins!
Cross posted at Redstate.com.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:31 pm
I am curious how the questions are asked, especially since there is wide swings (outside of the margin of error) in the results
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:32 pm
This would be a nice case for why it’s unwise to get so wrapped up in public polls when the public campaign has not yet begun in ernest. And for what it’s worth, I’m not getting wrapped up over this one either. Interesting trends, but I’m waiting for the debates.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:39 pm
McCain retains his dominance over New Hampshire politics. The poll results are especially interesting because the president of the ARG, Dick Bennett, said a few weeks ago that McCain’s support in the state was “tanking.”
Also, Romney’ at 20% even with Newt included. That to worry Rudy’s people quite a bit, considering he dropped 5 points after his big New Hampshire speech.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:44 pm
This should worry Rudy’s people a ton, LJ - without a victory in New Hampshire, I don’t see Rudy having a very easy time winning the nomination. Even this early, the expectations game is already being set: Romney should win Iowa, Rudy should win NH, and McCain should win SC. If any of that doesn’t happen, it will be a huge blow to the respective candidates. And New Hampshire ought to be tailor-made for Rudy - moderate to slightly left-leaning independents make it a Rudy must-win.
And now Rudy has to worry about not only taking first, but also not finishing third behind Romney!
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:48 pm
So, is Rudy actually a Republican?
“In federal election filings, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) hasn’t declared himself a Republican, Newsday reports.
“The ex-mayor still is holding back from submitting the simple one-page form declaring himself a possible candidate, despite raising $1.4 million to run. And asked what party he belongs to on a different form, Giuliani didn’t say - he left the answer blank… Giuliani’s campaign confirmed that leaving off the Republican designation wasn’t a typo.”
Said a campaign lawyer: “It was the campaign’s judgment that we didn’t have to fill in that box.”
Odd that,,,no?
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Yes, I love seeing Romney tied with Rudy, but I fully support murphy in this. These early polls mean very little. The real campaigns have barely begun.
Now in June, we will talk.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:50 pm
Yes, Tano, it is odd.
Makes one think, it does.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Tano - check out the thread down page a bit about that very topic!
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Tano reads “from the top down”.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:54 pm
LOL, murphy.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:59 pm
As a Granite Stater it is very interesting seeing where the candidates have been spending their time while in the state. Other than Guiliani’s speech to the state GOP, a very backhanded move considering the man who ran the GOP in this state invited him to speak at the same convention where he would be formally resigning and then this same chairman became Hizzoner’s state campaign manager the next day (that stinks of favortism to the nth degree) but anyways, as I was saying. Other than Guiliani’s speech most of the candidates have been going to small town gatherins or spending time up in the North Country. I am very much waiting to see them all spend some time in Nashua, Manchester, Concord, and Portsmouth and see what inroads can be made in the heavily populated areas.
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:00 pm
I wonder what’s been going on in New Hampshire recently. While I don’t believe polls are very useful unless viewed in their proper context, there’s clearly been some sort of Romney sprouting of late there. A sign that the Roney machine is already having effect? I’d love to see in-depth cross-tabs on this one, to mirror those found in the previous New Hampshire poll.
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:01 pm
I just can’t seem to get through a post without misspelling Romney’s name at least once…
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Heavy,
Exactly. It is heartening to see McCain still in the lead in NH, despite his (unpopular) Iraq stance among the state’s independents. If McCain manages to win NH and South Carolina, he’ll have so much momentum that he’ll probably coast to the nomination. It really comes down to who wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Rudy places third in NH, it’s probably safe to say that his campaign will be fatally wounded.
With the big primary states moving up to Feb. 5th, there are two ways it could go:
1. The early states are essentially deadlocked - Iowa (Romney), NH (Giuliani), and South Carolina (McCain). This means that the nomination is still anyone’s guess and the candidates will battle it out across the country. This is Rudy’s best chance to win, because he stands a good chance at taking NJ and CA.
2. If a candidate wins more than one of the early primary states, then they will essentially have a great deal of momentum going into Super Tuesday. The money and institutional support will flow to them and they’ll have a huge advantage over their rivals. Also, if a candidate wins two primary states, that means that one of the Big 3 will not have won anything and their support (especially financially) will evaporate quite rapidly and make it almost impossible to compete in the huge market states, they’ll be almost forced to withdrawal from the race.
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:15 pm
LJ, I think you hit the nail square on the head. Excellent analysis!
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Wow, a poll that doesn’t show Rudy in the lead, only 2nd place. I’m shocked.
Didn’t McCain win New Hampshire in 2000?
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Does this sound familiar?
McCain posted an impressive 16-point win over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who holds commanding leads over McCain in polls conducted in other areas of the country.
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/01/nh.primary/
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Guys,
You are trying to read tea leaves in a cup that is still being stirred. I agree fully with murphy. The one thing this poll definitely shows is that early polls are not to be trusted.
That being said, I have to agree with LJ’s second point about each of the big three needing to win at least one of the first three primaries. I do think, however, that if one takes second in all three, that could count as a win. His candidacy would be in serious trouble, but not on life support yet.
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Does this mean that Rudy is not going to win every state?
I’m totally bummed, I was hoping for a shutout.
LOL
February 2nd, 2007 at 4:55 pm
Wow! Unbelievable that Romney has had such a boom! If he was to win NH and Iowa, he would have mounds of momentum going not only into Feb. 5th, but also into SC. Looks to me like McCain needs to put the majority of his effort into NH because it appears his NH supporters are gravitating(albeit slowly)towards Romney. A split between the Big 3 in SC, IA, and NH would spell out death for McCain.
February 2nd, 2007 at 5:04 pm
I’m curious.
Does anyone on this blog support McCain?
If so, why?
February 2nd, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Yes, I do. While I hold nothing against Guiliani, I believe that Senator McCain simply has more depth of character, integrity, ability, and experience than the Mayor.
I believe he possesses a degree of pragmatism which is rare in politicians. While some accuse him of being too ambitious, or pandering, or whatever, I actually applaud the fact that he is honest enough with himself and with the public to fully admit what his faults are.
John McCain fits the perfect definition of an American hero, and I can’t think of any other man who is as deserving, or would make as able a President as him.
February 2nd, 2007 at 5:53 pm
I will support McCain if he does get the nomination. But as a GOP Party leader, I do not get the sense that there is much grassroots support for McCain.
It comes down to this: both Rudy and McCain have said that they would appoint judges like Alito or Roberts.
Who do you believe?
Ironically, most social conservatives have told me that they trust Rudy more than they do McCain.
February 2nd, 2007 at 5:54 pm
…
February 2nd, 2007 at 6:00 pm
GOP Activist,
Does anyone on this blog support McCain?
I’m the resident McCain backer on this site.
If so, why?
Do you want the long or short explanation? Heh.
I believe that John McCain is not only one of the better politicians in the past century, but that he is a man of enormous personal character. The experiences he has faced over his lifetime give him a unique outlook on the world that is absent in most of thee other Presidential contenders on either side of the aisle. More specifically, I think that in these perilous times, the nation needs a President who can lead us through safely in order to reclaim the promise of American life. McCain has devoted a significant portion of his Congressional career to the study of foreign policy and the national defense of this country. Given his harrowing experiences during the Vietnam War that made him a genuine War Hero, he knows what the men and women of the United States military have to deal with on the battlefield. His policy positions all flow from the idea of “national greatness conservatism.” I think John McCain would be a great President, if elected.
February 2nd, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Thanks LJ,
I think McCain needs a good branding campaign. When people ask me why they should support McCain, I really don’t have a good answer.
Rudy is easy, one word: 911
February 2nd, 2007 at 7:07 pm
GOP Activist: “I think McCain needs a good branding campaign. When people ask me why they should support McCain, I really don’t have a good answer.”
That’s one the biggest problems McCain has. Exactly why should we vote for him?
Just for jollies, just try to track down some spontaneous McCain blogs. I tried once. I didn’t have much success. I could find official sites of his, and sites that hadn’t been updated in months. Nearly all of them had little content except for press releases and copies of newspaper or magazine articles. There was almost nothing in the way of original work.
Contrast that with the other two of the big three. Romney is famous for all the blogs that have sprung up in support of his campaigm. They must be several dozen now. I’ve lost track of them all. Rudy has a couple of good sites, as well. But McCain seems to inspire very little spontaneous excitement.
LJ, maybe you can help here. Does McCain have any sites that comparable to MyManMitt, AmericansForMitt, ElectRomneyIn2008, Article6blog, or EvangelicalsForMitt?
February 2nd, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I think its funny that Romney has more New Hampshire support then the All-Mighty Ruler of the Universe, Barack Obama.
February 2nd, 2007 at 7:47 pm
marK,
Sure he does, quite a few in fact. Here are some:
The Draft McCain Movement
Conservatives for McCain
Evangelicals for McCain
Straight Talk Iowa Style
Alabama for McCain
Michigan for McCain
New Hampshire for McCain
New Jersey for McCain
Vote McCain
John McCain 2008
Students for McCain
McCain for Prez *MySpace*
Blogs for McCain
Then of course there’s Liz Mair at GOP Progress, Pat Hynes at Ankle Biting Pundits and me here at Race 4 2008. It seems like there is quite a bit of “spontaneous excitement” in the blogosphere for John McCain.
(Sorry, I forgot that the spam filter doesn’t let you post more than 2 links.)
February 2nd, 2007 at 8:01 pm
LJ,
Measured by content, ABP is not so much of a pro-McCain blog than it is an anti-Romney blog (run by a paid McCain guy). Good list otherwise…I didn’t know there was an “evangelicals for mccain”!
February 2nd, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I’d never run across that article6blog Mark. Excellent site.
February 2nd, 2007 at 9:42 pm
You have to wonder if Rudy and Romney ain’t splitting the North Eastern Home Field vote.
February 2nd, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Arguably the McCain lead in New Hampshire, which has heretofore been overwhelming, is not growing. That is good news for the Giuliani and Romney campaigns.
At the end of the day, it may be hard for a legislator like McCain to convince voters that their experience is what the country needs going forward compared to candidates like Giuliani and Romney who have been chief executives and actually managed government. For me personally, the candidates with chief executive experience have a large advantage in attractiveness for the job of president.
February 2nd, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Clearly the momentum is with Romney as he continues to pick up endorsemtents everyday, and I think the numbers will indicate that he out fundraises both Rudy and McCain. Consider too that Rudy and McCain are already so well known that I dont think they can go up a whole lot more in the polls in individual states. Romney however is doing well while still being lesser known candidate nationally.
February 2nd, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Look at history, Governor Reagan wins in 80 and 84. Then Governor Clinton wins in 92, and again in 96 while beating a senator. Sen McCain loses to Governor Bush in 2000 in the primary, and Governor Bush wins it all that year. Then he wins again over a Senator in 04. The moral of the story is Governors win, Senators lose. And as for mayors, well I dont expect he will make history, although he is a good guy.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:13 pm
LJ,
Two things:
1. Tanking is a process not an event.
2. McCains List of Netroots Blogs:
The Draft McCain Movement
Conservatives for McCain
Evangelicals for McCain
Straight Talk Iowa Style
Alabama for McCain
Michigan for McCain
New Hampshire for McCain
New Jersey for McCain
Vote McCain
John McCain 2008
Students for McCain
McCain for Prez *MySpace*
Blogs for McCain
3. A list of Romney support blogs:
Elect Romney in 2008 website
Run Mitt Run
Elect Mitt Romney President in 2008 Blog
Americans for Mitt
Mitt Romney President in 2008
Romney for America blog
Mitt Romney for President 2008
Romney Report
President Mitt Romney blog
Mothers for Mitt
Catholics for Romney
Mitt Romney in 08
My Man Mitt
Mitt Report
Law Students for Romney
Women for Romney
Evangelicals for Mitt
Mitt Rocks
MittRomneyin2008 dot com
MittSpaces
Moms4Mitt
Organization for Mitt Romney
Vote Mitt Romney 2008
Romney Report
MyMitt.com
Elija Romney en 2008
Alabama for Romney
AZ for Mitt
Californians for Romney
Coloradans for Romney 2008
Delawareans for Romney ‘08
Floridians for Romney
Georgians for Romney
Idahoans for Romney
Illinoisans for Mitt
Illinoisians for Mitt Romney
Iowans for Mitt
Iowans for Romney
Kentuckians for Romney
Massachusetts for Mitt
Michiganders for Romney
Mississippi for Mitt
Montanans for Mitt Romney
New Hampshire for Romney
Nutmeggers for Mitt
North Carolinians for Mitt
Ohioans for Mitt
Oregonians for Mitt Romney
Oregonians for Mitt
Rhode Islanders for Mitt
South Carolinians for Romney
Tennesseeans for Mitt
Texans for Mitt Romney
Texans for Mitt
Utahns for Mitt Romney
Utahns for Mitt Romney
Washingtonians for Mitt
Mitt Romney for President 2008 Yahoo! group
Illinoisians 4 Mitt Yahoo! group
New Yorkers for Mitt Yahoo! group
Students for Mitt Yahoo! group
Elect Romney in 2008 Yahoo! group
Mitt Romney for President in 2008 Yahoo! group
Texas for Mitt Romney Yahoo! group
Elect Romney in 2008 Gather group
Mitt Romney for President 2008 Google group
Mitt Romney 2008 Google group
Texas for Mitt Romney Google group
Not that this spells victory, but it’s a good sign of thing that await as real campaigning begins.
February 2nd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Two things: One, Romney should not be considered the frontrunner in any state, including Iowa. He still polls very low there and is basically unknown even though he has been there many times. Two, I am surprised to hear people say they support McCain because of his personal character. I would say he has exhibited a lack of such character. My understanding is that he was very unfaithful to his first wife. (Some people excuse this by saying he was traumatized by his prisoner-of-war experience, and of course I can’t argue with that.) Also, he was implicated, though not charged with legal wrongdoing, in the so-called Keating Five scandal, in which five senators (McCain the only Republican) were implicated for accepting significant campaign donations and personal favors from a crooked Savings & Loan operator and then lobbying on his behalf. If it’s personal character that is the prime factor behind your vote, Romney is definitely the guy from among the so-called Big Three. The guy is a model husband and father with a strong record of public service, and he would make a fine example for America’s boys and young men.
February 3rd, 2007 at 7:04 am
Marksal,
Yup, he’s literally a boy scout. An Eagle Scout to be exact.
February 3rd, 2007 at 8:20 am
It’s very clear from the polls that only McCain or Rudy can defeat Hillary.
If Romney or Newt win the nomination:
MSM strategy will be Republicans 10-20 points behind. This will lead every broadcast and will be on the front page of every paper.
If McCain or Rudy win the nomination:
MSM strategy will be to attack them personally. This will sink McCain, because he has nothing to run on. Rudy is a 911 hero and has the best chance to survive these political attacks.
Rudy is the only candidate that can save the GOP from another implosion in 2008.
February 3rd, 2007 at 10:08 am
A couple of things:
1) Matt, Romney is not actually an eagle scout. He corrected that on the Michael Medved show when Michael mentioned that Mitt was an eagle scout in his introduction of the Governor on the show. Three of his boys, though, are eagle scouts. Incidentally, Romney felt compelled to correct Medved’s mistake. The way in which Michael mentioned it in his opening remarks left plenty of room for Romney to conveniently leave it “out there”, uncorrected. He didn’t, and I thought that it displayed mighty fine character on his part.
2) DaveG and Kavon: Decidedly silent on this thread. Why?
February 3rd, 2007 at 10:25 am
Lurker,
Interesting. Wikipedia has him listed under famous Eagle Scouts. Wonder how the misunderstanding came about.
February 3rd, 2007 at 10:33 am
Maybe because he sat on the Scouting Executive Coucil they just made the asumption.
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:11 am
Romney seems like a good guy, but his campaign is a non-starter.
I see another Mark Kennedy. Great guy, good face on the GOP, but no chance of winning. Every day MSM headlines Romney or Newt 10-20 points behind Hillary.
Rudy’s polls offer a more optimistic view of what is possible in 2008.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
· 70% of independents are favorable,
· 70% of 35-44 year olds,
· 74% of married women,
· 73% of households married with children,
· 52% of minority voters
The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:22 am
Dear “GOP Activist,”
Please stop reposting your posts. We “read” you the first time. It’s annoying to come across the same post verbatim time after time.
Thank you.
Marksal
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:24 am
Well, 21% of New Hampshire is undecided. It is a YEAR before they cast
their votes and some will wait and see who comes off as STRONGEST and READY TO BE PRESIDENT.
The debates will be interesting and they will be forced to show their plans for the future
of our nation.
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:38 am
My point is that we need to think outside the box. In this political climate, there is no way we will win in 2008 with a traditional no-name GOP candidate.
Currently there are only two viable choices, Rudy and McCain.
I’m am inspired by Rudy, I can sell Rudy, Rudy is a winner!
And apparently, as the polls indicate, I’m not along in this belief.
February 3rd, 2007 at 1:19 pm
But “GOP,” the GOP hasn’t nominated a no-name candidate in most of our lifetimes (and maybe longer than that)! On the other hand, the Democrats won the 1992 and 1976 presidential elections with candidates who were essentially unknown nationally two years before the election.
Mitt can win the general. He has an exceptionally compelling personal story and an impressive record of positive results.
Perhaps the GOP needs a “fresh face” like Mitt, not a wornout one like McCain’s. (For the record, I like Rudy and would be pleased to see him as the GOP nominee.)
February 3rd, 2007 at 1:29 pm
GOP Activist,
From what I’ve read from your posts, your support of Rudy generally comes down to two things:
1. He’s currently polling very well.
2. 9/11.
For #1, I think he’s hit his high water mark in the polls. More than 80% of people only know him for his media coverage during 9/11. The negative adds haven’t hit yet, public campaigning hasn’t started yet, and he’s got a multitude of issues that leave him vulnerable to McCain and Romney. What makes you think that his polls are sustainable? I’m expecting you’ll say “9/11″.
What exactly is it about 9/11 that trumps all the other issues out there? Soaring national deficits? Health care? Entitlement spending? Government corruption? Environmental issues? ANWR? Energy policy? Education? Global economic competitiveness? Gay marriage? Government inefficiency? Immigration reform? GWOT? Nuclear non-proliferation? Can you be specific about why the majority of voters will forget all that and swoon over 7 year old pictures of Rudy in a hard-hat managing a disaster response?
February 3rd, 2007 at 1:30 pm
Oh silly me…I forgot to mention abortion policy…
February 3rd, 2007 at 2:08 pm
I used to be an idealist. But after watching very poor Democrat candidates win year after year in swing districts. I have now become more a pragmatist. In this political climate I find it hard to believe that Romney, Newt or any other no-name traditional GOP candidate can win. With 99% of the MSM working against the GOP, generic Democrats up by 20+, and then you have the Liberal machine.
It will come down to: McCain, Rudy or Hillary.
I choose Rudy.
February 3rd, 2007 at 3:16 pm
No offense GOP Activist, but you’re making an unwise assumption in ruling out candidates simply because they have poor name recognition two years prior to the election. What happens when polls change? Will your entire basis for supporting Rudy be undermined? I was really hoping to get an answer to the substance of my #48.
February 3rd, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Conservatism is what wins elections. Remember that Bush went and pitched a conservative message to voters about things like a strong national defense, activist judges, and gay marriage and that values voters were drawn to that and voted for him in huge numbers. The Dems saw this and rolled out there own brand of “conservative Democrats” that professed to be more conservitive than the GOP. Many were fooled, and were sick or our Roman Senate (which McCain is a part of and they gave the Dems there chance. Going back to conservatism is the key to winning as Reagan won in the eighties and Romney gives us that chance. Rudy and McCain will keep values voters home on election day.
February 3rd, 2007 at 3:57 pm
GOP Activist,
I think you are trying to use today’s polls and extrapolate them onto November 2008. But you miss the key point, Rudy’s popularity has no where to go but down. He has retained his mystical 9/11 glow because he hasn’t really been in the public eye since then. But the vast majority of the population doesn’t know anything about his social stances, his somewhat questionable business dealings, Bernie Kerik, his nasty divorces, Rudina, etc. Once those 30-second ads start airing in Iowa and South Carolina, you’re going to see a very different reaction to him. GOP Activist, Rudy’s own advisers think that his poll numbers are artificially inflated and will inevitably go down.
That’s why I’ve long maintained that not only is McCain the frontrunner, but he’s best positioned for the nomination. Everyone already knows what he stands for and he’s been heavily vetted in 2000 and all the intervening years as well and he’s still only 5% or so behind Rudy in most national polls. That’s why you’ve generally since McCain’s numbers stagnant between 20-25% since the summer.
Romney is also in a good position because he is so unknown that he could make a legitimate play for the nomination as the “credible conservative alternative.” His poll numbers have no where to go but up as more people find out about him. His main problem right now is that he’s doing a really bad job at defining who he is for the public. He’s letting his opponents define him as a flip flopper and that’s slowly seeping into the national MSM coverage of him. Every time you read an article about him, his flip flops are usually mentioned in the second or third paragraph. If the public gets their first taste of Mitt as a flip flopper, that could be severely damaging to his campaign.
February 3rd, 2007 at 4:24 pm
“I think you are trying to use today’s polls and extrapolate them onto November 2008″
Yup
“Rudy’s popularity has no where to go but down”
Yup
I think his polls will decrease, but I would rather start high and fight to keep them high, rather than fight my way up from the bottom in this very tough political environment.
It seems like a no-brainer to me:
Go with a winner, well known 911 hero like Rudy.
February 3rd, 2007 at 10:50 pm
Mittlovers, even though I despise flipping and pandering, I would take Mitt any day over Rudy.
GOP Activist:
“I think his polls will decrease, but I would rather start high and fight to keep them high, rather than fight my way up from the bottom in this very tough political environment.”
Translation:
Why should you fight for someone you believe in when you can just JOIN RUDY?
February 3rd, 2007 at 11:36 pm
“Why should you fight for someone you believe in when you can just JOIN RUDY?”
I am fighting for someone I believe in.
I also respect that you may support Romney. I just don’t think the GOP should waste another election on someone who has no chance of winning.