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Students for Sam Brownback is reporting that they have the inside scoop on a huge (50,000 homes) new Iowa Poll that shows Sam Brownback in 3rd place:
Results from Respondents who intend to vote in the January 2008 Republican Presidential Caucus:
35.26% of respondents intend to vote for Rudy Giuliani.
19.09% of respondents intend to vote for John McCain
6.60% of respondents intend to vote for Sam Brownback.
5.89% of respondents intend to vote for Mike Huckabee.
5.07% of respondents intend to vote for Mitt Romney.
28.09% of respondents are undecided or expressed no preference on whom to vote for in the January 2008 Republican Presidential Caucus.
Hat-tip to Patrick Ruffini on this story. And like Patrick, I urge caution on this until the poll has been confirmed.
February 15th, 2007 at 2:34 am
Seems strange… those numbers add up to 100%, meaning that nobody in Iowa is planning on voting for Gingrich (who consistently polls around 10-20%), Hunter, Thompson, or Hagel. I kinda find that hard to believe. And I didn’t even know 7% of Iowans knew who Brownback was. If Romney’s got name ID problems, Brownback has name ID problems.
But if it is legit, that’s some pretty awful news for Team Romney after all the time and effort they’ve spent in the state.
February 15th, 2007 at 3:45 am
[...] post by Kavon W. Nikrad and software by Elliott [...]
February 15th, 2007 at 8:22 am
Romney continues to slide.
It looks like Rudy and McCain in the top tier and everyone else competing for 3rd place.
February 15th, 2007 at 10:28 am
Very unlikely to be a legitimate poll. Nobody would spend the money to poll 50,000 people within one state when a much smaller sample would achieve results as robust. Unknown company alleged to have done the poll. Polls use sampling, confidence intervals (margins of error), etc. For a one-state poll, 1,000 or fewer legitimate respondents would be considered more than adequate.
February 15th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Great points, Marksal.
February 15th, 2007 at 10:35 am
Especially when there’s only around 80,000 votes in the actual caucus anyways, why would someone waste the massive time and money it would take to poll 50,000 of them?
February 15th, 2007 at 10:59 am
[...] hot new poll from Iowa has Sam Brownback – yet another ideologically confused GOPer (though a hell of a lot more [...]
February 15th, 2007 at 11:33 am
I find this poll kind of hard to believe myself, for many of the reasons that prior commenters have listed above.
Although I believe that caucus attendance is actually in the 110,000 to 115,000 range for both the GOP and the Dems, it would still make this a huge poll even if you split the 50,000 between both parties.
25,000 out of 115,000? Nah… How would you even find the info for that many attendees without shelling out the $100,000 to both the Iowa Republican and Democratic Parties for their lists?
Not that Brownback supporters are a particularly nefarious bunch, but the fact that this secret poll is being circulated in emails among Brownback supporters casts further doubt considering the tension between the two camps recently.
February 15th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Kavon, I agree with you, bro.
In 2000, there were 87,000 votes in the GOP Iowa caucus and 60,000 in the Dem caucus. So, assuming that the 50,000 weren’t all GOP respondents, this poll represents 50,000 out of 147,000 caucus-goers.
That’s a big, expensive, nasty polling project for some no-name company who hasn’t done major polling before.
February 15th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
Well, I guess I was basing the figures on the Dem 2004 caucus which had over 100,000 participants according to the Des Moines Register. But regardless, 25,000 Dems and GOPer’s is too much for me to believe until I see it.
February 15th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Sweet, I couldn’t find the numbers for the 2004 caucus – that’s why I went back to 2000. Thanks for the updated info.
February 15th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
There was no poll. This is typical Brownback BS. If there was a poll, who paid for it, Brownback doesn’t have any money. And if it was conducted by a polling firm, why did Students for Brownback get it.