And finally – a third poll out this morning! Whew! This one is from Marist College and WNBC. First, the national GOP primary numbers (paretheses are from their last poll in December):
Giuliani – 28% (24)
McCain – 21% (23)
Gingrich – 11% (8)
Romney – 10% (4)
All others – 1% or less
Undecided – 22% (17)
Obviously, some positive movement for Giuliani and especially for Romney. And another poll showing that no one in the second or third tier making any sort of move whatsoever. Now the Dems:
Clinton – 37% (33)
Obama – 17% (12)
Edwards – 11% (14)
Gore – 11% (13)
All others – 2% or less
Undecided – 17% (16)
Another poll showing a widening gap between the top two and the rest of the pack. And now, a ton of horse race numbers for you to analyze:
Giuliani – 47% (49)
Clinton – 45% (43)McCain – 46% (49)
Clinton – 46% (43)Clinton – 49% (n/a)
Romney – 36% (n/a)Clinton – 56% (n/a)
Gingrich – 36% (n/a)Giuliani – 45% (n/a)
Obama – 41% (n/a)Giuliani – 44% (n/a)
Edwards – 44% (n/a)McCain – 44% (n/a)
Obama – 41% (n/a)McCain – 44% (n/a)
Edwards – 43% (n/a)
If McCain and Giuliani continue to poll this close to one another against the Dems, one of the main reasons to choose Rudy – his electability – will be taken off the table. And can we finally stop talking about Gingrich as a candidate? According to this poll, he would give Hillary! the largest margin of victory in an election since Nixon wiped out McGovern in ‘76 ‘72 (what was I thinking?). But hey, it might be fun to give the Democrats a 520-17 EV victory!
Other random, but very interesting, numbers from the poll:
*48% of Republicans say learning that Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-gay rights makes them less likely to vote for him.
*Giuliani does not have the air of inevitability yet: 56% of Republicans say it is unlikely Giuliani will be the GOP nominee. 37% say it is likely.
*43% of voters say they will never vote for Hillary Clinton, the highest of any of the Democrat contenders.
Hat tip to the Hedgehog Report for this one.
February 20th, 2007 at 11:47 am
[...] post by HeavyM and software by Elliott [...]
February 20th, 2007 at 11:47 am
This makes it very clear that even Gingrich, who has significant name recognition, is unable to defeat Hillary.
Clinton – 56%
Gingrich – 36%
Rudy’s strength goes far beyond just name recognition.
February 20th, 2007 at 11:50 am
TM, didn’t you read the part about Giuliani only performing as well as McCain until voters learned about his liberal social politics? 9/11 nostalgia isn’t gonna carry him the distance.
February 20th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Rudy has stated that he would appoint Judges like Alito and Roberts.
I think that will satisfy the majority of the social conservatives. Others will simply split their vote over several third tier candidates.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
Rudy has stated that he would appoint Judges like Alito and Roberts.
This won’t distinguish him one bit from the other frontrunners. The only thing that distinguishes him is his repulsive defense of abortion rights. That’s not what a majority of the social conservatives have been fighting for for the last 30 years.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
TM,
Rudy has stated that he would appoint Judges like Alito and Roberts.
So has John McCain. So has Mitt Romney. If you think it’s enough for Rudy to satisfy so-cons, then surely it’ll do the same for the two of them. Not to mention, McCain and Romney actually have pro-life creditials to back up their beliefs. Rudy’s position essentially comes down to: “I will appoint judges that will overturn Roe, even though I support Roe, er, a women’s right to choose, umm, I mean abortion is evil, but I would give my daughter money for one anyway, but uh….remember 9/11!!” Now, that’s what I call leadership!
Plus, 48% say they’d be less likely to vote for him. That means that even if 10% (almost 1/5) of those voters decide that Giuliani is too liberal, his lead vanishes almost entirely.
This is why Rudy’s lead in the polls right now is so inconsequential.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
LJ, just thought I’d let you know my conversion to the dark side is complete.
In a two-man matchup, I would now vote for McCain over Giuliani.
Still, I count my lucky stars those aren’t my only two choices, and I hope it doesn’t come down to that. But should it, count me on the side of Johnny Mac.
I liked Giuliani a whole lot better before he started opening his mouth to campaign.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
[...] post by HeavyM and software by Elliott [...]
February 20th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Using a little algebra in this poll, we discover that they sampled 5.5% more Democrats then Republicans (assuming 33% independent sampling). I’ve yet to see any such swing reflected in the polls. Indeed, I believe there’s generally acknowledged to be a 2-point Democratic lead at this juncture. Re-adjusting for that assumption we find we’ll see 2.5% swing as a result. For instance, Hillary will be down to 43.75 and Giuliani will be up to 47.25. A minimal change to be sure, but one that paints an entirely different picture really. And I’ve consistently seen this in other MSM polls. An unjustifiable oversampling of Democrats over Republicans. And this is one of the better polls I’ve seen in this regard. They’re giving the false impression that these races basically a toss-up at this point, when this couldn’t be farther from the truth. I haven’t seen one poll where Giuliani didn’t win more independents, a higher percentage of Republicans versus his opponents Democrats, and a higher percentage of Democrats versus his opponents Republicans. And yet somehow, its all tied up? Not buying it.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Matt, no need for the algebra – the numbers are listed at the end of the poll.
GOP – 277 (29%)
Dem – 331 (35%)
Ind – 342 (36%)
According to Harris, the current party split in this country is Dem 36%, Rep 27%, and Ind 24%.
So if anything, it looks like the oversampled Independents which should have helped Rudy, according to his backers. The fact that it didn’t is very telling of his chances in a general election, I think.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
HeavyM,
In a two-man matchup, I would now vote for McCain over Giuliani.
Heaven’s to mergatroy, that’s good to hear!
I’m still not sure who I would pick if my choices were Giuliani vs. Romney. Rudy’s completely out of the blue shifting on PBA and gun control bothers me tremendously, at least Romney tried to come up with some cover story. But Rudy’s claiming that he “always” hated abortion and was “always” opposed to PBA if it had a health provision. It’s quite shocking really when you think about how much grief Romney’s gotten for his various flips that Giuliani would try to pull something even more egregious.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
I think Harris has clearly flipped the moon then. We haven’t a 9-point party affiliation difference since the 60’s. And the polls used to predict the 2006 election results, which turned out to be quite accurate, had the two parties virtually even.
February 20th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
“If McCain and Giuliani continue to poll this close to one another against the Dems, one of the main reasons to choose Rudy – his electability – will be taken off the table.”
Rudy remains strikingly more electable than anyone else in the field, statistically tied with only McCain in that regard.
“So if anything, it looks like the oversampled Independents which should have helped Rudy, according to his backers. The fact that it didn’t is very telling of his chances in a general election, I think.”
It’s possible that folks who just a few months ago identified as Republicans are now identifying as independents. That said, here’s what’s telling about the candidates’ respective chances in the general:
Rudy v. Hillary: GOP +2
McCain v. Hillary: GOP +0
Romney v. Hillary: GOP -13
February 20th, 2007 at 1:00 pm
Hillary’s just released her 50th policy position regarding Iraq, now it’s we stay 90 more days, and that’s it….talk about consistency!! Please see the short video here:
http://minor-ripper.blogspot.com/2007/02/hillary-on-iraq-from-this-weekend.html
February 20th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Matt, you could be very right. According to Harris, here are the party breakdowns for the past several years:
2006: 36-27-24
2005: 36-30-22 (Dem-GOP-Ind)
2004: 34-31-21
2003: 33-28-24
2002: 34-31-24
2001: 36-31-22
2000: 37-29-23
However, the exit polls in 2000 showed a 39-35-27 split. 2004 showed a 37-37-26 split. And 2006 showed a 38-36-26 split.
So the difference would obviously be in the actual voters versus the country as a whole. Actual voters tend to be more Republican than the country as a whole. So this poll is skewed very much toward the Democrat side of things, meaning the actual election shouldn’t be that close.
February 20th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
“Rudy remains strikingly more electable than anyone else in the field”
Good point Dave, that’s why these polls are important.
February 20th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Strinkingly so, Dave?
Giuliani and McCain are both statistically tied with Clinton.
They are both statistically tied with Edwards (McCain even holds a slight edge over Rudy here).
They both lead Obama by statistically the same percentage.
In the last poll, both Giuliani and McCain were statistically tied with Clinton yet again.
I don’t see anything striking about the difference between Giuliani and McCain at all in these polls.
February 20th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
I dont have the numbers at hand, but I seem to recall that Rasmussen (GOP firm) has been showing about a 6 point lead for Dems in party ID – so I think there is little reason to criticize this poll on those types of grounds.
February 20th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
You mean since Nixon wiped out McGovern in 1972, not 1976. Carter narrowly beat Ford in 1976.
February 20th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Good call, Nathan. Thanks.
February 20th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
I am a Romney supporter but I believe he needs to go on the offensive sooner rather than later. I know
Romney is probably not the type of guy to want to negatively campaign but being aggresive against opponents
is a proven strategy.
BullMoose is a prime example of this case in point. He has now been persuaded by a meaningless Paul Tsongas
vote 14 years ago.
The problem for Romney is that he has faced an avalanche of these petty criticisms where Rudy and McCain have
remained realtively unscathed to date. All you have to do is type in “flip flops and John McCain” on googel
and you would find enought flip flops to last a lifetime, but McCain is not getting attacked. Same can be
said for Rudy.
My one worry with Romney is this. He is such as classy guy that he will not resort to tough offensive attacks
on RG and JM to fight back. I believe he will need to go on the offensive and stike hard to win this elections.
American love classy people, but the respect fighters. Romney will need to hit back hard to win.
February 20th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
“American love classy people, but the respect fighters. Romney will need to hit back hard to win.”
Well said, Ben. If Mitt starts hitting back, the dynamic could change rather quickly. Some have posited that he’s keeping his powder dry for ‘08, but there might not be an ‘08 for him if he can’t break out of the single digits soon.