GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
This is a biggie, so let’s delve right in…
Washington Post/ABC News Poll, conducted by telephone February 22-25, 2007, among a random national sample of 1082 adults, including an oversample of 86 black respondents. The results have a three-point error margin:
Republicans
- Rudy Giuliani 44% (a 10 point gain since their Jan. 19th poll)
- John McCain 21%
- Newt Gingrich 15%
- Mitt Romney 4% (a 5 point drop since their Jan. 19th poll)
- Tommy Thompson 2%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
- Sam Brownback 1%
- Chuck Hagel 1%
- George Pataki 1%
- Ron Paul 1%
Now for the good part (for me at least):
If Gingrich does not run, for whom would you vote?
- Rudy Giuliani 53%
- John McCain 23%
- Mitt Romney 5%
- Tommy Thompson 2%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
- Sam Brownback 2%
- Chuck Hagel 1%
- George Pataki 1%
- Ron Paul 1%
You read that correctly. If Newt isn’t included, 60% of his votes go to Rudy while a measly 13% goes to Sen McCain.
What are the top three single most important issues for Republicans regarding their choice of candidate for president?
- Terrorism-Security 18%
- War in Iraq 17%
- Economy-Jobs 15%
Where are Abortion and “Morals-Family Values”? They came in at 6th place (3% each), tied with Education and Immigration.
What happens when Republicans are informed of Rudy’s social views?
Giuliani has been a supporter of legal abortion and gay civil unions. Does this make you (more likely) to vote for him for the Republican nomination for president, (less likely), or doesn’t it make a difference in your vote?
- More Likely-Does Not Make a Difference 53%
- Less Likely 46%
49% of the people who responded that they were less likely to vote for Rudy still say there is a chance they will vote for him.
What is the most biggest obstacle a candidate must overcome according to this poll? Age. 56% of respondents stated that they would be less likely to vote for someone who is over the age of 72. No other attribute even comes close.
Now onto a Rudy - McCain head to head match-up:
Regardless of who you may support, who do you think (READ ITEM) - (Giuliani) or (McCain)?
- Is the strongest leader? Rudy 63% - McCain 26%
- Best understands the problems of people like you? Rudy 51% - McCain 27%
- Is the most honest and trustworthy? Rudy 43% -McCain 29%
- Has the best experience to be president? McCain 47% - Rudy 37%
- Is the most inspiring? Rudy 65% - McCain 21%
- Has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008? Rudy 55% - McCain 34%
- Is closest to you on the issues? Rudy 44% - McCain 29%
I’ll have more on the Dems later on…
February 27th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
…Who has the “aura of inevitability”…?
February 27th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
*head explodes*
February 27th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
I’m sorry, but Romney at 4% when we just saw two others with him at or very near double digits is perposterous.
P.S. I like the comment LJ
February 27th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Poor LJ.
February 27th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
Okay, now that I’m more calm, can someone please explain these polls to me:
Zogby:
WaPo:
Elon:
Rasmussen:
So we have a 4.4% gap, a 9% gap, a 16% gap and a 30%(!!!!) gap. Each of these polls came out within the last 3 days. How are they so varied? Also, there is no way that Rudy has a 30% lead over McCain. The WaPo one has to be an outlier.
February 27th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
How are they so varied?
Oh boy, I can just SEE the cracks forming in the polls-must-be-right mantra.
February 27th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
“Oh boy, I can just SEE the cracks forming in the polls-must-be-right mantra.”
Only from those who don’t like the results Murph
February 27th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
Kavon, you’ll have your chance to prove that theory right 10 months from now when Romney’s kicking everyone’s butts in the polls.
February 27th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
Murph,
Your optimism is why I dig you so much man… People are just so cranky all the time. I love dealing with “glass half-full” people.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
as a Romney supporter, I would say that if it were December, I would be scared to death. But it is so early that Im not completely worried. So much time still to go, and so much to happen. And as LJ illustrated, the polls are all over the map. One has Romney at 10%, the other at 4%?
These polls are a benchmark, but they are as useful as baseballs preseason standings. Would we care if the Yankees are 8-1 and the Red Sox were 2-7 in preseason baseball. Remember the baseball season starts in April, and so does the campaign season. Debates, fund raising totals, etc; thats when the fun begins.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
Was there anyone who was predicting that in 04, values voters would come out of the woodwork by the millions and bring a HUGE win for GWB. Nobody did, except perhaps Bush, who sang there tune in some very small, rural, and very conservative towns. Romney will get many of that same electorite this time with his more conservative message. Rudy and McCain folks think that independants and Dems are going to carry their guy to the nomination, and fail to realize that the Dems have there own race to win. You wont see in the primaries what you saw 8 years ago, when independants and Dems did what they could to throw there weight behind McCain. They have to worry about there own liberal candidate.
This is a Republican primary, and Romney carries that banner of conservatism better than the others, and for that reason (and many others), he will come out ahead.
Save your “Rudy is a conservative” or “McLame is a conservative” crap because I hear conservatism on talk radio and they dont represent that agenda (global warming, gay rights, pro choice, terrorist’s rights, campaign finance, etc). That is not conservatism, and thats why true conservatives will, in the end, pull the lever for Romney.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
The target population is ideally the same, yet the way the sampling frame was constructed for each poll could have influenced the results. We don’t know what their methodology was for each one, be it RDD (random digit dialing), marketing lists, etc. Each type of survey can have an inherent bias. Additionally, it’s theoretically possible to get results a few standard deviations from the true population mean. We need to see how next months turns out to see if it is a fluke or not.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
Mitt Romney polling three points ahead of Brownback, Huck, and THOMPSON?
February 27th, 2007 at 11:41 pm
This poll is fairly useless.
The variation in the polls is do to differing sampling techniques.
In reality the sample population should consist of VOTERS LIKELY TO VOTE IN A GOP PRIMARY.
Most surveys are polling adults (ABC) and registered voters. These polls don’t tell us much about GOP PRIMARY VOTERS’ inclinations.
The polls I’m watching are Rasmussen and Zogby. I prefer Zogby though because they are using humans to make the phone surveys (Rasmussen uses robots).
When you look at the Likely Voter polls it shows Giuliani hasn’t sealed the deal yet. About 1/4 of voters still are undecided.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
Strange, more than ten months away from the Iowa Caucus and we already have a “winner.” Rudy’s going to have a fight on his hands if he wants to keep his peak status for so long.
February 28th, 2007 at 12:54 am
Peter,
After reading your comment, I suddenly had this image of a bunch of grade-schoolers playing “king of the mountain”. Each kid desperately trying to drag down the one on top and claiming the spot for their own.
February 28th, 2007 at 11:38 am
And Romney has no desire to win it?
February 28th, 2007 at 11:49 am
LJ,
You use the WaPo poll without Gingrich. With him, it is 44-21. This is not wholly inconsistent with a 29-20 Zogby poll, which also included Condi Rice (I could believe that Rudy would get the balance of the Condi Rice vote as well). I haven’t seen the Elon number you cite, but I believed they only polled the Southeast. This is barely inconsistent with the 33-17 Rasmussen poll, which also included Gingrich. Factor in margin-of-error and different question styles and sampling techniques, and there is no reason to “doubt” the polls — you just have to know what the polls are saying!
March 1st, 2007 at 7:45 am
“[T]he polls are all over the map. One has Romney at 10%, the other at 4%?”
Fair comment, though it does evidence a certain wishful thinking, coupled with a distinctly perceptible failure to grasp the reality of the moment. Please allow me to illustrate my point by re-phrasing the comment with equal accuracy: “[T]he polls are all over the map. One has Rudy at 53%, another at 33%, another at 29%, the other at 20%!”
The old adage is certainly true: Polls represent (at best) a “snapshot” it time, and they very well may, indeed probably will, change over time. At this moment in time, however, Rudy is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008. Even NPR (for Gawd’s sake) proclaimed him so this morning, with no qualifiers or equivocations, albeit more-or-less en passant..
That said, I must say also that I have NEVER been able to fathom, and do not fathom now, the fascination of some with Mitt Romney. Polling numbers like his have in the past caused many good men to give up the quest. One the other hand, a few, a very few, have persevered in the face of such poll numbers and ultimately won. Cf: Jimmy Carter.
The surest truism is this: “No poll is worth a damn, including this one!” That said, I believe it to be equally true that, where a large number of polls, independently of each other and over a significant period of time, show essentially the same thing, then one would be advised to sit up and take notice. This is really no more than that other bit of truly sage advice: “If one person tells you you’re drunk, and you don’t think so, you may not be. If ten people tell you you’re drunk, however, you had best sit down and not drive home.”
Translation: There have been enough polls as of now to show BEYOND DOUBT the following: Rudy is the clear frontrunner and Mitt Romney is hovering in 3rd or 4th place, sometimes lower, and is most often unable even to break into double figures.
The message is harder to read for John McCain: The most recent round of polls, that prompted this discussion, all show McCain’s support within a relatively small percent range, i.e., 16.4 to 23%. They also show him to be solidly in 2nd place: clearly behind Rudy and clearly ahead of Gingrich and Romney. The rub is that his numbers have “tanked” only relatively recently. Not too long ago, he was a much much closer second place to Rudy. At the same time, however, there were all those niggling surveys of opinion among the “hard-care” of the GOP showing HUGE disdain for McCain. In sum, it’s difficult at the moment to read McCain’s prospects with any confidence, although he certainly ought to have a back-up plan where he simply stays in the Senate.
Now, it’s certainly fair game to continue to support Romney and hope that he will win the nomination. Indeed, the tendency of some to beat their collective head against the wall is part of the “great mosaic” that “makes” politics and horse races. To continue to insist, however, that: “Romney numbers will certainly go soaring up once people just get to know him!” or “Rudy’s numbers will inevitably tank once people get to know his positions on social issues!” is nothing short of self-delusional.