Wow. That’s big. I still don’t expect to start changing much until the big ad buys, debates, and regular network coverage of the campaign kick into high gear. But this should definitely be a big shot of mo’ and an end to any talk that his campaign’s not moving forward.
You may want to check out the latest Newsweek poll that came out today. Rudy is
up 25 points on McCain and 50 points on your man Mitt. Except for political
junkies, and the far right wingers, no one knows or cares about CPAC.
In 1991, George H. W. Bush won the Gulf War. His approval rate was an astronomical 95% — ninety-five percent! He lost the 1992 election to Bill Clinton, someone that nobody knew or cared about in 1991.
There are a number of reasons why. I personally think the foremost is that he played it safe. He sat on his hands. Republican after Republican came to the Oval Office begging him to do something, anything with all that political capital. He would nod politely, say a few generic platitudes, and then listen to his advisors who said, “Don’t do anything risky that might cause you to lose the election.” The result? He lost the election.
Giuliani is on the top of the polls now. By all accounts, he should have no worries. However, witnessing his lackluster CPAC performance yesterday brought to my mind the image of Bush Sr. fifteen years ago. Giuliani played it safe — “Ball-control Offense”, it is called in football. Play it safe. Don’t take any risks. Run out the clock. Well, it can work for a quarter, maybe a little more. But time and time again it has been proven to be a losing strategy for much longer than that. You lose momentum, and your opponent has a chance to regroup and come roaring back. By the time he is about to catch you, it is too late for you to get your momentum started again, and he blows past you.
Am I writing Giuliani’s political obituary? Hardly. I am just reminding you of what the Red Queen said in the second chapter of Alice through the Looking Glass: “[I]t takes all the running YOU can do, to keep in the same place.” In the days ahead, we will see if Giuliani continues to play it safe, or starts taking risks. If the later, he stands a good chance of winning. If the former, then he will likely lose to someone with more fire in the belly. There is just too much time before the primaries next year to start playing “ball-control offense” now.
Given the amount of grief McCain got for skipping CPAC, I’m surprised, and heartened, that he got 12%.
Also, regarding the Newsweek polls, Rudy will be riding high until the summer or fall when his support will level out with McCain around the 35% mark. As impressive as his numbers are today, he can’t sustain them for another year. Also, note that McCain’s support is remaining remarkably steady (between 25%-30%) despite Rudy’s surge. Rudy’s probably at or near his ceiling and McCain’s near his floor. There will be a sorting out of support once the public begins to really pay attention to the race.
One point - Romney’s almost fully organized and
had dozens and dozens of volunteers at CPAC. McCain is
also highly organized already. Giuliani by
comparison has barely started to get his real organization
together. Right now he’s cruisintg almost entirely on status
- something that neither McCain nor Romney will ever be able to match
him on, ever. Notice how Romney and McCain are already in the mud and
what’s Giuliani’s answer? Ignore them completely, let them carp.
NcCain and Romney are about to learn why corporations pay Giuliani
a hundred grand for a speech, big time.
Kudos to the Romney team, good to see some good news in his corner. Though I also look upon
this result as GREAT news for Giuliani supporters. Judging by reports, the Giuliani camp had
near to no staff canvassing the conference. When you put that point together with the fact that
the attendees are bona fide social conservatives….. a close second is a bloody good result for
a man that the MSM claim cannot win the nomination due to his “moderate views”.
This is nice to see. I’d point out that Romney does very well in venues where name recognition is not a problem. His performance here will likely be mimicked next month in the first debates.
Some Rudy supporters try to claim that CPAC doesn’t matter, and that only public polls of an uninformed and unattentive electorate matter. Well, I can certainly see why they’d prefer polls of people who don’t know Rudy’s political stances. Next it will be that political debates don’t matter, since most people don’t pay attention. What is constantly missing from this argument is the realization that when presented side-by-side, Romney performs best. When the public starts watching, this trend may very well continue.
March 3rd, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Wow. That’s big. I still don’t expect to start changing much until the big ad buys, debates, and regular network coverage of the campaign kick into high gear. But this should definitely be a big shot of mo’ and an end to any talk that his campaign’s not moving forward.
March 3rd, 2007 at 5:07 pm
That should read “I still don’t expect the polls to start changing much…”
March 3rd, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Fredo:
You may want to check out the latest Newsweek poll that came out today. Rudy is
up 25 points on McCain and 50 points on your man Mitt. Except for political
junkies, and the far right wingers, no one knows or cares about CPAC.
March 3rd, 2007 at 5:52 pm
DB,
In 1991, George H. W. Bush won the Gulf War. His approval rate was an astronomical 95% — ninety-five percent! He lost the 1992 election to Bill Clinton, someone that nobody knew or cared about in 1991.
There are a number of reasons why. I personally think the foremost is that he played it safe. He sat on his hands. Republican after Republican came to the Oval Office begging him to do something, anything with all that political capital. He would nod politely, say a few generic platitudes, and then listen to his advisors who said, “Don’t do anything risky that might cause you to lose the election.” The result? He lost the election.
Giuliani is on the top of the polls now. By all accounts, he should have no worries. However, witnessing his lackluster CPAC performance yesterday brought to my mind the image of Bush Sr. fifteen years ago. Giuliani played it safe — “Ball-control Offense”, it is called in football. Play it safe. Don’t take any risks. Run out the clock. Well, it can work for a quarter, maybe a little more. But time and time again it has been proven to be a losing strategy for much longer than that. You lose momentum, and your opponent has a chance to regroup and come roaring back. By the time he is about to catch you, it is too late for you to get your momentum started again, and he blows past you.
Am I writing Giuliani’s political obituary? Hardly. I am just reminding you of what the Red Queen said in the second chapter of Alice through the Looking Glass: “[I]t takes all the running YOU can do, to keep in the same place.” In the days ahead, we will see if Giuliani continues to play it safe, or starts taking risks. If the later, he stands a good chance of winning. If the former, then he will likely lose to someone with more fire in the belly. There is just too much time before the primaries next year to start playing “ball-control offense” now.
March 3rd, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Given the amount of grief McCain got for skipping CPAC, I’m surprised, and heartened, that he got 12%.
Also, regarding the Newsweek polls, Rudy will be riding high until the summer or fall when his support will level out with McCain around the 35% mark. As impressive as his numbers are today, he can’t sustain them for another year. Also, note that McCain’s support is remaining remarkably steady (between 25%-30%) despite Rudy’s surge. Rudy’s probably at or near his ceiling and McCain’s near his floor. There will be a sorting out of support once the public begins to really pay attention to the race.
March 3rd, 2007 at 6:31 pm
One point - Romney’s almost fully organized and
had dozens and dozens of volunteers at CPAC. McCain is
also highly organized already. Giuliani by
comparison has barely started to get his real organization
together. Right now he’s cruisintg almost entirely on status
- something that neither McCain nor Romney will ever be able to match
him on, ever. Notice how Romney and McCain are already in the mud and
what’s Giuliani’s answer? Ignore them completely, let them carp.
NcCain and Romney are about to learn why corporations pay Giuliani
a hundred grand for a speech, big time.
March 3rd, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Peter:
Great points.
March 3rd, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Kudos to the Romney team, good to see some good news in his corner. Though I also look upon
this result as GREAT news for Giuliani supporters. Judging by reports, the Giuliani camp had
near to no staff canvassing the conference. When you put that point together with the fact that
the attendees are bona fide social conservatives….. a close second is a bloody good result for
a man that the MSM claim cannot win the nomination due to his “moderate views”.
It’s Giuliani time!
March 4th, 2007 at 12:56 am
This is nice to see. I’d point out that Romney does very well in venues where name recognition is not a problem. His performance here will likely be mimicked next month in the first debates.
Some Rudy supporters try to claim that CPAC doesn’t matter, and that only public polls of an uninformed and unattentive electorate matter. Well, I can certainly see why they’d prefer polls of people who don’t know Rudy’s political stances. Next it will be that political debates don’t matter, since most people don’t pay attention. What is constantly missing from this argument is the realization that when presented side-by-side, Romney performs best. When the public starts watching, this trend may very well continue.