Much has been written recently that in the face of Rudy’s surge in the polls, McCain’s presidential campaign has suffered a severe blow and is on the verge of collapsing. Indeed, these rumors have been circulating around for several months now. Today the Hotline threw a big bucket of ice on that notion and makes it clear that rumors of McCain’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

– He continues to lead most polls in NH and all of them in SC. He’s running strong in IA, too, despite stepping away from the ‘00 caucuses. He’s leading in MI, and was leading in the last GOP poll we saw in CA. McCain has the strongest teams in IA, NH and SC bar none.

– While voters fawn over Rudy Giuliani, they continue to like McCain quite a bit. His fav/unfavs are very strong. Romney’s favs are ok among conservatives, but among Republicans, generally, they’re even with his favorables.

– When was the last time you read a “McCain Panders To the Right” story?

– He’ll probably wind up raising more money this quarter than any other candidate, although Romney might come close. His direct mail list is producing significant returns, his calendar is full of fundraisers, and no major bundler has defected.

– He continues to get endorsement after endorsement: Thune, Ridge, Sen. Warner, Chip Pickering, Mitch Daniels, Frank Keating, strategist Charlie Black. Note that Sen. Hillary Clinton hasn’t been able to keep prominent Dems from endorsing Sen. Obama, but McCain, for the most part, has been able to keep prominent Republicans from endorsing anybody else.

– In a favorable cover story, National Review’s Ponnuru urged conservatives to take a closer look at his record.

– His formal announcement on Letterman was funny, self-effacing and well-covered; his troop lives “wasted” gaffe wasn’t.

– McCain (and Hillary Clinton) are two candidates who, by dint of their public profiles, are immune from opposition research. Their popularity (or lack thereof) reflects the sum of all there is to know about them. So more than the other candidates, McCain and Clinton will rise (or fall) on their merits.

– Most insiders believe that McCain will be the nominee. Only 11 percent of RNC members surveyed by the Los Angeles Times say they’d never vote for McCain. McCain’s nomination has the tacit blessing of the Bush White House. “Tacit blessing’ doesn’t mean “endorsement” — it means that the White House — Karl Rove, specifically — is not going to put his body in front of any prominent GOPer who wants to endorse McCain.

It can’t be denied that Rudy Giuliani holds a commanding lead over both McCain and Mitt Romney, but as I’ve argued many times, the polls are only telling part of the story.

According to the new Newsweek poll, 60% of social conservatives say they think that [Rudy's] either pro-life or that they have no idea. 50% say that upon finding out that he supports Roe, it either prevents them from voting for him or makes it much less likely. 44% say that his opposition to the FMA would either prevent or make it much less likely that they’d vote for him, while 30% say that upon finding out about his gun control position.

That’s why I don’t fret (much) about Rudy’s poll numbers because even if 20%-30% of those people decide not to vote for him, his poll support will plummet back down to earth.

National polls are important benchmarks, but it’s the state by state polls that ultimately decide the race. It’s particularly telling that despite trailing Rudy 20%-25% overall, McCain still manages to hold sizable leads over Giuliani in SC, MI and NH and only trails him by a few points in Iowa. It’s clear that even when you look at the national polls, what’s changed is Rudy’s lead, but McCain’s numbers have remained remarkably stable.

Rudy’s problem is that he’s peaked in the polls way too early. He’s at or near his ceiling whereas McCain’s at or near his floor. Since Rudy has such a huge lead, he has a big red bullseye on his head and everyone from McCain to Romney to Brownback will be dying to take him down a notch or two. McCain obviously relishes the opportunity to be the crusading insurgent and according to John Dickerson, that might be what’s in store.

As the senator has told supporters privately, the press and his opponents are waiting for him to show his age or his temper. Having to be hyper-cautious all the time irritates him. In 2000, there were glowing stories about his swashbuckling maverick style. This time, the coverage is more often about how he’s muffled his straight talk…

For now, the McCain team is taking a measured approach to the widening gap. Their principal strategy is to wait and let Giuliani fall of his own weight. Once conservatives learn about Giuliani’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-gay-rights positions, McCain aides expect, their rival’s support will diminish considerably…

McCain is also relying on front-runner-sized structure and organization to beat Rudy. The mayor may be popular, they argue, but he lacks the state-by-state organization required to actually win the nomination. McCain and his team have been building that groundwork for two years.

Their best weapon at this stage, they think, is the candidate himself. So, they’re getting McCain on the road. He will increasingly be out in the country, away from the Senate and among voters in the kind of free-flowing town halls that were his signature in 2000. This serves several purposes. A frenetic schedule and McCain’s energy on stage offer reassurance about his health and vigor. The format, if it stays genuine, allows McCain to connect with the audience even if some of them disagree with him. It also clearly energizes him.

It’s important that Rudy understand what he faces over the next 10 months and try to grow a thicker skin because this ain’t nothing yet. Unfortunately, it seems he hasn’t taken that advice to heart:

“My wife Judith is a very loving and caring and good mother and grandmother, good mother and stepmother,” Mr. Giuliani replied to a barrage of questions from dozens of journalists about his relationship with his children. “She has done everything she can. The responsibility is mine. And I believe that these problems with blended families are challenges. Sometimes they are. And the challenges are best worked on privately. In other words, the more privacy I can have for my family the better we are going to be able to deal with all these difficulties and the best way to kind of handle that is to make as little comment about this as possible.”

An aide interjected “Last question!” though Mr. Giuliani had only answered one. The next one, too, was about his son’s comments.

Mark my words, the polls will tell a far different story come summer.