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Is this the beginning of a trend?
March
Rudy Giuliani 43%
John McCain 34%February
Rudy Giuliani 50%
John McCain 29%
McCain’s gained 12 points on Rudy in the past month. Volatile polls or a bonafide comeback? You decide.
March 13th, 2007 at 11:53 am
I would be inclined to suspect comeback, but the newest Rasmussen poll has McCain down 3 points from last week (to his lowest point ever) and Rudy up 3. It’s hard to make heads or tails of these polls, although I’ve always been most inclined to trust automated, weekly, polling firms like Rasmussen because of their ability to produce long-term cohesion.
March 13th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Dick Morris has a good summary of the current trend.
“Any lingering doubts that Rudy Giuliani’s surge last week was just a flash in the pan were resoundingly extinguished by the results of the latest polls.”
March 13th, 2007 at 12:17 pm
CBS/NYT on the one hand…
CNN, Rasmussen, NBC/WSJ, Gallup/USA Today, Fox, Time, ABC/Wash Post, and Zogby, on the other.
All showing a surge to Rudy when you compare the last 2 versions of their polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
March 13th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Romney supporters would probably be inclined to interpret this as a decline for Rudy. Rudy supporters would make tribute of this to the evil bloggers trying to damage him with stories about Rudy’s personal family issues and his discourse with ultra-liberal trade unions.
March 13th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
The site Real Clear Politics averages out about 8 polls and
Giuliani’s lead averages out to 17 points over McCain. Why is
McCain declining the invite to speak at the Club for Growth in Florida???
March 13th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I still believe that McCain wants out. That could be a reason he is acting so independantly. (CPAC, CLUB FOR GROWTH declines, etc.). I mean, when is the last time you heard him speak publicly???
March 13th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
“Why is McCain declining the invite to speak at the Club for Growth in Florida???”
Because of this and this…
Sen. McCain is not too happy with the CFG right now.
March 13th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Hmmm… time for an attendance record update
March 13th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
I believe McCain is in Iraq during the Club for Growth Conference.
March 13th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
A unexploited weakness of McCain is that his nomination would give Democrats an extra seat in the Senate if he won.
March 13th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
There’s a constitutional requirement in Arizona that a new senator be a member of the same party as the previous one (in the event of the necessity of appointment of course). That said, nobody says it has to be a particularly conservative Republican or whether or not they need to remain in the party.
March 13th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Yeah, John McCain will be in Iraq during the CFG get together so that’s why he couldn’t make it. And I’m sure that the WSJ op-ed/report didn’t make him particularly enthused either.
March 13th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
I’m generally a poll skeptic. So I don’t put much stock in individual polls. That said, it will be interesting to see polls in Iowa, NH, and SC. The race so far seems highly competitive in the early states.
March 13th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
An interesting tidbit from the poll:
60. Which of the following is MORE important to you choosing a Republican nominee who agrees with your positions on most issues, or choosing a nominee who can win in November?
Agrees with issues 73%
Win in November 25%
DK 2%
If true this is the opposite of what many commentators have expected after the 2006 drubbing.
March 13th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
EGS,
That is a silly question. Why? because electibility IS an issue. That answer says that for 25% of the Republicans, the biggest issue is electibility in November.
March 13th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Re: McCain having scheduling conflicts with the NRI, the Heritage Foundation, the Conservative Political Action Committee, and the Club for Growth –
Once is an accident.
Twice is a coincidence.
Three times is a trend.
Four times is … what, exactly? A habit, perhaps?
I am not trying to snark here. I really would like to know exactly what is going on in McCain’s head. There are three things that come to mind:
(1)He doesn’t want to go into a potentially hostile environment since he has often had difficulty maintaining his cool in those situations. He might say something that he will regret.
(2)He doesn’t want video of him “pandering” to conservatives to drive away his moderate and independent supporters.
(3)He figures that no one has the conservatives lock-up, so he is free to persue the moderates and the independents. He can always mend fences later.
March 14th, 2007 at 11:30 am
[...] The narrowing of the numbers between Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain in the most recent CBS/NYT poll was the cause of much debate here yesterday. [...]
March 14th, 2007 at 11:36 am
[...] The narrowing of the numbers between Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain in the most recent CBS/NYT poll was the cause of much debate here yesterday. [...]
March 14th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
[...] between Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain in the most recent CBS/NYT poll was the cause of much debate here yesterday. It seems that the poll caught the attention of Mark Blumenthal of Pollster as well, who offered [...]