The Candidates
NRO’s The Corner has been inundated today with emails in support of a presidential run by Fred Thompson. I opined on a Thompson run the other day, and I continue to be intrigued by the number of heads that Thompson appears to be turning. I think I know the reasons why this is occurring, some of which I laid out in my original post, but let’s take a look at the thoughts of a few Corner readers and contributors to gauge the state of the conservative psyche w/r/t Thompson.
Here’s K-Lo weighing in on whether she thinks all the Thompson talk is for real:
My read of his flirting with 2008: At first, he was flattered to be wanted. Then he decided to have a little fun with it, see if it was for real. While in this mode, he quickly came to realize how deep the yearning conservatives have for a real conservative leader is, and how they feel like they don’t have one in the current mix. I think he’s now heartened by the fact that so many people seem to want that leader to be him / think it could be him. And so I think increasingly he’s been seriously considering the possibility of running over these last two weeks. There are so many drawbacks, especially for a guy with a comfortable life but also for a candidate getting in relatively late, when others have the organization he doesn’t.
But, yes, I think Fred Thompson is increasingly serious about the possibility of runnig for president..
And here’s an excerpt from one of the “many pro-Thompson emails” that ended up in Rich Lowry’s inbox:
And that’s what I think Thompson could hope to be in this race: Stylistically like the McCain of 2000 (straight-talking, outsider-ish, interesting 1970’s biography), but with genuine establishment affection in a race in which (quite unlike 2000) the establishment’s center of gravity remains indeterminate.
And finally, an email from a Brownback guy to K-Lo:
I think Fred wins over the pro-lifers who think Sam (Brownback) has no chance, if he is acceptable on stem cells.
Acceptability means no worse than Bush.
Fred could say it’s a state issue, the federal government’s busy with a war and spends too much money anyway. He could say, “Look Missouri voted for cloning, I don’t agree with that, but that’s their decision. Nebraska is looking to ban cloning. A lot of people are very divided on this issue and I just think because the federal government has enough on its plate right now.”
I selected these particular passages because I feel that they, in addition to my thoughts from the other day, sufficiently describe the sentiments that are fueling the Thompson boomlet. Conservatives and Republicans casting their lots for 2008 bear a striking resemblance to the Greek army after Alexander’s death. There is no general looking to lead us who can satisfy the entirety of the conservative coalition constructed by Ronaldus Magnus. Even my candidate, Mayor Giuliani, who I believe comes the closest to claiming that mantle out of the GOP field, has himself stated that he is the 80-percent friend of conservatives, and perhaps a 90-percent friend to Thatcherite conservatives such as myself, but still not a one-hundred-percenter, nor does he pretend otherwise. Indeed, the 2008 Republican presidential field is the first in three decades that is seemingly free of one-hundred-percenters, a dynamic that has led conservatives to divide amongst an assortment of niche candidates, with the battle lines drawn based on positions, personalities, and priorities.
The Thompson boomlet, then, has a couple of different fuel sources. First, a lot of the folks currently supporting many of the weaker niche candidates, such as Brownback voters who simply won’t compromise on life issues, even if it means supporting an unelectable candidate, hunger for a candidate that they can support whose ceiling isn’t around 3 percent of Republican primary voters. Finding a candidate like Thompson who is solid on their primary issues (abortion for the Brownback folks, immigration for the Hunter supporters, etc) but who also satisfies and excites all the other elements of the conservative coalition, and who thus has an actual shot at winning the GOP nomination and the presidency, is naturally an occurrence that will turn a few heads. Similarly, many of the folks who are supporting a candidate with whom they agree on, say, 50 or 60 percent of the issues largely because of electability, either in the primaries or in the general, may see in Thompson a one-hundred-percenter who, depending on how things play out, could end up being a viable candidate both in the primaries and in the general. If Thompson were to run, it’s possible that the first dynamic that I described would totally eviscerate the support of most of the lower-tier candidates, while the second dynamic that I articulated would whittle away at the support of the upper-tier candidates, all to produce a Thompson candidacy with respectable numbers and an actual shot at the nod.
March 20th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
I continue to be puzzled by the idea that Thompson has excited pro-lifers who don’t like Romney’s past pro-choice position. The man ran for Senate twice (1994, 1996) under the pro-choice banner. Now he wants RvW overturned. That’s all fine and good, as the pro-life cause needs to convert every person it can. But why the excitement over a candidate who is already represented in the race? Is it the fact that everyone likes his TV show?
March 20th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I think he gets a pass for the same reason George Allen, who used to be pro-choice w/r/t to first-trimester abortions, got a pass. Thompson’s a red-stater, and that seems to cover a lot of sins in the minds of other red-staters. Hey, I know it’s not fair. Heck, my candidate’s from New York, so I certainly have no love for such a double-standard. But, as my roommate is wont to say, “it is what it is.”
March 20th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Thompson will be hosting a dinner in Rollinsford, NH in the very near future to gauge support in the Granite State.
March 20th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
DaveG, what you said both bothers me and makes sense. I suppose the silver lining is that Thompson’s entrance into the race (should it materialize) will help tilt things towards a discussion of the issues, not a nauseating 9 month nostalgia trip on you-tube.
March 20th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
I am admittedly bewildered by this whole Thompson boomlet. I wonder though, if he does get in the race, it seems like he would hurt Brownback, Huckabee, but especially Romney the most. After all, Thompson wouldn’t be flirting with a run if Romney had established a hold on the right flank.
March 20th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Weaker? You don’t know my man Sam!
March 20th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
LJ, I agree…in briefly looking over Thompson’s position statements, I found a LOT in common with Romney…they’re going after the same block, but Romney has a 6+ month head start and oodles of cash and endorsements (and qualifications, IMHO).
But you really have to dig for details on Thompson, because most of what is cited in the pro-Thompson threads are warm fuzzy platitudes, the sort of detail-less honeymoon that everyone enjoys when nobody takes them seriously yet.
March 20th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Psychout…this is the same Sam who recently described himself as a “bleeding heart conservative” to NH voters, right?
March 20th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
murphy,
I will say that after a couple hours of LexisNexis searches (I have no life), I’ve found quite a bit on him that will surely make all these newfound Thompson fans have second thoughts. I hardly think that he’s this mythical credible conservative alternative that he’s been made out to be.
In regards to Romney, I agree that he has a huge head start in terms of money and organization, but given that he’s still at around 7%-10% in the national polls, he’d be incredibly vulnerable to a Thompson surge. If Thompson pulls even or surpasses Romney (several months down the line), it could be an almost deadly blow to Romney.
March 20th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
Heh…several months down the line, this conversation will be about whether Rudy or Thompson brings more as a VP to Romney.
March 20th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Are we talking about the same Fred Thompson? The actor? This guy is as old as dirt. He has got to be the most unattractive candidate ever. He looks like he bathed in cigarette smoke. Oh yeah his hair looks like its as white as a ghost and its falling out. If this the best we as Conservatives can do, maybe suicide is a good alternative. It makes me laugh that people actually think this clown can win a general election. What a joke the 2008 race has turned into.
March 20th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
The problem with the notion that Romney will be particularly vulnerable to a Thompson surge is that it assumes Romney’s support is coming overwhelmingly from conservative voters at this point. It’s not. He was third in thee Rasmussen poll among the most conservative voters. He had 6% (in third again) among moderates. Romney’s main problem is, thus far, his supporters don’t look an awful lot different as a group, then McCain and Giuliani supporters. More conservative, but not incredibly so. So while I think a Thompson boomlet appears to damage Romney, I think most of it’s effect would be found on the third tier candidates (is their even a second tier?), and undecideds. To be sure, many of these people would have ultimately broken for Romney in a three-way matchup, but I think that mostly indicates that at worst Thompson’s will slow whatever rise Romney was likely to see. I think we’re going to see Thompson’s candidacy, rather then hurting the most conservative of the big 3, will hurt the candidate among the big 3 who has the most tenative support. My instinct says that’s McCain or perhaps Giuliani (who I think has at best 25% absolutely committed), but certainly not Romney. Candidates with low name recognition usually find the that the vast majority of their support comes from the most informed voters. They’ve assessed the choices, and have likely chosen that candidate quite purposively.
March 20th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
murphy,
Several months from now, we’ll be debating whether Rudy should be McCain’s Attorney General or Homeland Security Secretary and if Romney will go back to the private sector.
Matt,
It’s quite obvious that Romney gets more support more support from conservatives than moderates. In fact, today’s Gallup poll proves my point: Romney gets 8% from conservatives and only 2% from moderates. That’s why I think that a Thompson rise could hurt Romney as well.
March 20th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
The electorates whole flirtation with Thompson, Gingrich, (Gore), etc shows that people are already getting disinterested in the big two’s stranglehold on the media coverage. People are looking for something new and different. This is where I think Romney’s campaign is good, as he takes time to build up name recognition and media attention - so people won’t get bored of him as they seem to have done to McCain.
It also opens up opprotunities to the 2nd tier. The media will flirt with the big names, but if they don’t enter, and the public/media gets bored with the top 2, attention may finally be paid to the lower tier candidates…
March 20th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
LJ,
That poll actually has it as 8% to 3% for Romney. But that number is skewed by the fact that conservative Republicans are considerably more familiar with Romney then moderate/liberal Republicans. A full 2/3’s of moderate/liberal Republicans have no opinion of him whatever, compared to less then half of conservative Republicans. Readjusted, Romney’s gaining support from roughly twice as many conservative Republicans as moderates/liberals. A significant difference to be sure, but closer to the types of breakdowns seen by McCain and Giuliani then those seen by Gingrich. And every other poll I’ve seen has the difference even less pronounced. The ARG polls consistently have Romney gaining the support of Republicans vs. Independents in the primary at roughly an 8/7 rate, while Giuliani and McCain generally have a 7/8 ratio. And that Rasmussen poll has Romney gaining the support of 6% of moderate Republicans, compared to his 10% total. Considering the fact that the two heavyweights in the race are considered (perhaps unfairly) moderate/liberal Republicans, I think its difficult to sell the notion that somehow Romney’s support is primarily conservative Republican driven. Perhaps compared to McCain and Giuliani, but his support is broad enough, and there are enough unpicked conservative apples, that unless Romney’s support is particularly soft (which it isn’t likely to be, at least relative to McCain and Giuliani’s), he shouldn’t be unduly harmed by a Thompson surge.
March 21st, 2007 at 9:12 am
All this stuff about “leaders”…the President is supposed to be a ruler!
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:46 pm
[...] days ago, writing in the comments of Dave’s post on the Fred Thompson boomlet, I stated: I wonder though, if [Thompson] does get in the race, it seems like he would hurt Brownback, [...]
March 22nd, 2007 at 5:08 pm
[...] days ago, writing in the comments of Dave’s post on the Fred Thompson boomlet, I stated: I wonder though, if [Thompson] does get in the race, it seems like he would hurt Brownback, [...]