The Candidates
Interesting to note… Check out Rudy’s numbers among “White Born-Again Evangelicals” as well as Fred Thompson’s showing.
Quinnipiac University Ohio Poll, conducted March 13th-19th, 2007:
Republicans
- Rudy Giuliani 31%
- John McCain 20%
- Newt Gingrich 8%
- Fred Thompson 6%
- Mitt Romney 6%
- Jim Gilmore 1%
- Chuck Hagel 1%
- Mike Huckabee 1%
- Tom Tancredo 1%
- Tommy Thompson 1%
Among “White, Born-Again Evangelicals”
- Rudy Giuliani 33%
- John McCain 19%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Fred Thompson 5%
- Mitt Romney 4%
- Tom Tancredo 2%
- Jim Gilmore 1%
- Tommy Thompson 1%
- George Pataki 1%
- Chuck Hagel 0%
- Mike Huckabee 0%
Democrats
- Hillary Clinton 32%
- Barack Obama 22%
- Al Gore 14%
- John Edwards 11%
- Dennis Kucinich 3%
- Joe Biden 1%
- Bill Richardson 1%
I still doubt that Fred Thompson is serious about entering the race, but I have to admit that the case for him becoming a viable contender is compelling should he chose to do so. He ties Mitt Romney without any organizational structure, money, official endorsements, or making even one campaign stop? Thompson entering the race probably hurts Mitt and Newt the most.
March 22nd, 2007 at 10:40 am
Let’s see now: Among all Ohio Republicans, Rudy leads McCain by 11 percentage points, 31%-20%, and he leads Romney And Thompson by 25 percentage points, 31%-6%.
When the response pool is narrowed to “white, Born-Again Evangelicals”, however, Rudy leads McCain by 14 percentage points, 33%-19%, Thompson by 28 points, 33%-5%, and Romney by 29 points, 33%-4%.
Someone please tell me again: Who is the candidate of the social conservative and/or the Christian Right? I must be confused on that point.
March 22nd, 2007 at 10:46 am
See, Romney’s support isn’t coming primarily from evangelicals?
March 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 am
2 things. Mike Huckabee had less support from evangelicals than with the general. Also, Brownback is excluded while Fred Thompson (who hasn’t announced anything yet) and George Pataki (who downplays his chances of running) are part of the poll. Why is Brownback automatically, especially with a poll focusing on religious voters? Asides from all that, it looks like evangelicals are more pragmatic than some people give them credit for (at least for the moment).
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:12 am
BarkTwiggs,
He wasn’t excluded. He just didn’t poll over 1% so I omitted him from the results.
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:20 am
I just found a great quote by someone, speaking about Giuliani’s chances of getting the nomination, going from “no way” to “maybe”:
“When someone becomes John Wayne there is no way others can turn him into PeeWee Herman.”
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:29 am
Is anyone going to comment on Romney’s college student fundraisers getting a cut?? Also, Romney just got an endorsement of a christian coalition office in SC, whom he donated five thousand dollars to last year. UNBELIEVABLE.
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:54 am
KT,
Already did comment on that yesterday it is a fantatic plan.
I will have his endorsements up some point today.
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:27 pm
KT,
I posted on the endorsements. Feel free to comment unceasingly about polls.
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Why haven’t the Romneybots addressed Luther’s question? Which has been THE BIG question of this entire blog?
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Take it that was rhetorical.
I’m still in shock that the Mormon thing has so much traction. But, I’ll admit it is based on my own ignorance - had no idea how ingrained the anti-Mormon feelings run for many Evangelicals. Certainly not fair to Romney, but they just can’t get over the whole “heretics” thing. I first realized it was more than a Dem/media talking point when talking with some of my good friends from law school, who are Evangelicals - they are pretty passionate about their feelings on Mormonism.
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:46 pm
btw, not trying to attribute such attitudes to ALL evangelicals, but (and this is clearly anecdotal) they say that most evangelicals feel the same way, and strongly. Again, I’m fairly far removed from that POV (I’m a nondemominational Jew), but this is what they say and I’d think that the poll results show there may be more than a grain of truth to that meme.
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Go to any general opening of a Mormon Temple (before it’s been blessed and sanctified and then allowed only to those with Temple Recommends) and you will see a large group of people from local churches lining the streets to pass out anti-Mormon leaflets and carrying signs. I was clueless about the hatred until I attended an opening.
March 22nd, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Kavon,
Gee, I wonder why you managed to miss the really interesting stuff in this poll.
Like the fact that in cross party head-to-heads, Obama ties Rudy.
And Obama beats McCain, and Mitt. And Hillary beats all three Repubs. And Edwards beats all three Repubs.
March 22nd, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Jason,
Why do you persistantly whine about critiques of your candidate, but when you want to make sarcastic digs you have no hesitation?? Your candidate - - Mitt Romney - - has NO traction with the people who count: the voters. Therein lies the importance of polls.
March 22nd, 2007 at 1:41 pm
KT,
Think of Romney’s 5-10% polling as consistent with solid grassroots support. Romney is building a solid foundation to lay the rest of his campaign on. Rudy’s support is more like a house of cards, precariously set up to be rather large, but can easily fall down given any number of circumstances in the upcoming months.
March 22nd, 2007 at 1:46 pm
I’ll take a shot at Luther’s question.
There’s no question that Rudy is the current frontrunner for the nomination. He definitely should be taken seriously as having a good shot at the nomination but it’s too soon to anoint him the candidate of social conservatives. This recent Newsweek poll gives strong evidence that his support among this group is soft and could erode. Remember, he has faced no negative advertising yet.
Newsweek:
The article does note that 77 percent of social conservatives who know Rudy’s marital history say it would have no negative impact on their vote.
Also, the details of this Ohio poll note that 71% of evangelicals do not know enough about Romney to have an opinion of him. So it’s reasonable to think he has a lot of room for growth if he can present himself positively to them.
At this point I think social conservatives remain very fractured with no candidate able to claim a majority of them. This poll showing almost a quarter of Republicans undecided also reflects that.
March 22nd, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Thompson ties Mitt after a two week boomlet, even though Mitt’s been running for two years? Are you kidding me? If this isn’t the death knell knocking at his door, I don’t know what is.
March 22nd, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Barktwiggs,
I would believe that if it were true and it sounds like a good theory. The problem is Giuliani’s popularity is because he is a known entity and people like what they know. Romney has been planning this run for president since the middle of his first and only term as governor of Massachusetts…. I would hope he has the money and “establishment” endorsements. The guy thinks he is the most supremely qualified human being ever to run for president….there is so much ego there. This all does not mean he has a grassroots support.
March 22nd, 2007 at 2:53 pm
KT,
The guy thinks he is the most supremely qualified human being ever to run for president.there is so much ego there.
Really. That’s not the impression I got from a recent interview, I think Larry King? When asked why he was the best candidate, Romney said (paraphrasing) there were undoubtedly more qualified people who could run, but he feels his experiences in private industry and public service have prepared him to make a difference.
Come on, KT. You have it in you to be more credible. I believe in you.
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Rudy shot up in the polls during a time when ALL that was discussed on Fox and CNN was his social liberalism and how so-cons wouldn’t never support him. It was during THAT publicity that his ratings went UP, including among so-cons.
When the negative stuff on Rudy comes out, it will BACKFIRE, because people love his character (yes, his character, as demonstrated by 9-11). Mostly conservatives.
If you think his support is shallow, you still do not understand what’s going on with the electorate and Rudy.
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:29 pm
The Mormon problem is not just an issue in the primary among Evangelicals. It’s a bigger issue in the general among the electorate at large. Not over theological disapproval, but over weirdness/cultism.
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:45 pm
RCP has its graph up again, this time correcting the error the other day showing McCain once had the lead:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:54 pm
David B,
I disagree. Evangelicals are the big hurdle, because they are the only segment of the conservative population with a FIRM opposition to mormonism. If Romney can win this group over (which he appears to be doing), he will have no religious opposition within the rest of the GOP. Generic discomfort with the “weirdness” of a religion won’t last long when people see Romney in the debates, and become familiar with his character, platform, and record. He has handled this very well in the past, and the “Article 6″ appeal to America’s founding principles is very strong.
As for the general election, who would play the religion card? The party obsessed with tolerance? The party with a mormon Senate Majority Leader? The only people on the left opposed to mormons are the ones who do so out of politics, and any attempt to draw those hard-left nuts into the GOP is a very poor strategy anyway.
Furthermore, what difference did Romney’s religion make in his past elections?
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Nobody campaign has to play it. It will be the talk. Pundits etc. People will allow a “weird” governor. They won’t allow a “weird” President.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Rudy support is down 4 in this poll from March 7. Gingrich’s support is down 5. The drop for Gingrich is highly significant. I think a Fred Thompson entry effectively replaces Newt’s candidacy with potential to pull some support from Rudy.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:41 pm
econ grad stud,
You’re right about Thompson…but that still begs the question of whether Thompson will run or not.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:45 pm
Seems like you’re making some pretty big assumptions based on little to no evidence, David B. Whatever makes you feel better about Rudy, I guess.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:56 pm
David B,
You wrote, “If you think his support is shallow, you still do not understand what’s going on with the electorate and Rudy.”
What evidence do you have for that opinion? You mention that Rudy’s positions have been discussed on CNN and Fox News, but what percentage of voters are watching those stories?
Here’s a poll from a month ago that shows that less than 25% of the electorate has thought a lot about the candidates. And among Republicans paying attention 84% answered None/Too Early/Don’t Know when asked who they had though most about possibly voting for.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=307
You’re right that people generally have a positive impression of Rudy (see the word associations in the link above). But how can we know how deep or abiding those impressions will be since he’s never run a national campaign before and those people have yet to see any negative ads against him?
As for his support among social conservatives, a Gallup poll showed that 1/3 of Rudy’s own supporters said they would be less likely to support him given his positions on abortion and homosexual unions. Note that over 1/3 of voters in the survey in my last post said they knew almost nothing about him and only about 1/4 know a lot.
I don’t doubt that Rudy has lots of strong supporters but to say this early in the campaign that he’s locked up the primary support of those who care deeply about abortion and gay marriage seems absurd to me.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Here’s the link to the Gallup poll I mentioned above.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=26428&pg=1
March 23rd, 2007 at 7:25 am
Ho-Hum! And now, Ladies and Gentlemen, here’s a report of a WSJ/NBC News poll that shows:
“These seers now detect unhappiness with the GOP aspirants. They cite a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in which 26% of Republican primary voters were dissatisfied with Giuliani, McCain, and former Massachusetts governor Willard Mitt Romney, among others. However, 56% called these choices satisfactory. This mirrors the 57%of conservative Republicans who preferred Giuliani, versus 31% for McCain. More broadly, Republicans backed Giuliani 38% to McCain’s 24, former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s 10, Romney’s 8, and 2% each for Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.”
I suppose I should apologise because this is the third time I have posted this excerpt dealing with this poll, but I shan’t because so many others continue to flog polls where the internals show what they want to believe, all without even acknowledging this poll’s internals.
In addition, David B’s argument is essentially irrefutable: Rudy’s poll numbers shot up into the stratosphere, including among polling sub-sets like “white Born-Again Evangelicals”, just at the time when virtually every cable news channel, pundit, and swami in the world was flogging his opinion that Rudy’s soi-disant “liberal social positions” would deny him the GOP’s nomination, all the while hyping and misstating Rudy’s actual positions to make him seem even farther to the left than he actually is.
Like it or not, there is ONE dynamic at work in the 2008 Presidential race: The emotional connection that Rudy has made with the American people — a connection that those people express now through the only avenue they have available to them, responses to pollsters. The ONLY question is whether that emotional connection will last until November 2008. The evidence at the present time is that it will last. All the rest is at best “inside baseball” and at worst mental masturbation.