The Candidates
The end of the FEC’s first quarter fundraising deadline is only three days away and the Big Three are in a nonstop battle to lower expectations to such a degree that a good total will seem great and a bad total can be waved off. This is a constant game in politics, although it’s most commonly used in before the debates. Bush used this to devastating effect in 2000 and 2004, where he and the MSM both set out to lower expectations so much that Bush could effectively “win” the debates barring any huge gaffes. Matt Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist in ‘04, had the most hilarious line in the past several years when he called John Kerry the “the best debater since Cicero.” (Kerry’s campaign then said that Bush “has never lost a debate that I know of.”)
The race to the bottom over the fundraising numbers is heating up:
“We don’t have anything to prove,” said John Weaver, chief strategist for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), referring to the contribution reports due to the Federal Election Commission by April 15.
Argued Mike DuHaime, manager of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani’s campaign: “Just because Rudy is popular doesn’t mean that you turn on a faucet and money starts pouring out.”
And Kevin Madden, national press secretary of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, noted: “You know, we’re in single digits in the polls.”
Facing predictions that Romney will lead the fundraising this quarter, his team has been tamping down expectations.
“We’ll be third place, but we’ll be a solid third,” says one adviser. “If we do $15 million, it’ll be a coup.”
And said Romney spokesman Madden: “We expect that we’ll be far behind (Giuliani and McCain), but we’ll show our supporters that we’ll have the resources we need to run a national campaign.”
For McCain, strategist Weaver said the first-quarter numbers aren’t especially important. “People know we’re in this for the long haul,” Weaver said, adding, in a thinly veiled shot at Romney, that they don’t have to post eye-popping figures “to keep our campaign propped up like some of our competitors.”
A Romney aide also told the Hotline that “McCain will be in first.” Not to be out done though, John McCain himself took it to the next level on the Today show this morning. He said that the reason he’s lagging behind in the money game is that he’s “not very good at it” and that he “hopes to get better.” As Jon Martin points out:
This comes from a man who has spent a quarter-century in Congress and, in doing so, has raised over $80 Million dollars for his campaigns and PACs.
With that said, without further ado, I give you my predictions for the 1Q fundraising numbers:
Now, these numbers need some explanation.
- Everyone knows that Romney is coming in first. Why, you ask? The National Journal says:
Remember, Romney has the bigger initial “friends of” Rolodex, including Bainiacs, Bostonians, Utahns and fellow Mormons. Oh, and don’t forget his own bank account.
He also has been sucking up a lot of money because he’s gone out of his way to outraise both McCain and Giuliani. He thinks that if he “stuns” the media with a strong first place showing, it would go a long way to improving his name recognition and subsequently his dismal poll numbers. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to duplicate his success in the following quarters. It’s better to start out slow and build strength rather then dump everything at the beginning.
- McCain’s final total would be a bit bigger, but he had to cancel a fundraiser in order to participate in the Senate’s Iraq debate yesterday. But given that Weaver has been constructing the McCain finance team for the past 2 years, he’s in a very solid position right now.
- Giuliani’s people have been remarkably quiet, perhaps a little too quiet. Some have speculated that that’s because he hopes to shock everyone with a larger than expected fundraising total. I doubt it though, just because he did get a late start. Plus, people talk and if he was secretly doing amazingly well, it would’ve leaked out by now. Like this, for example.
March 28th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Giuliani has a list of 22,000 Hillary haters from his Senate campaign in 2000.
What’s $2300 x 22000?
March 28th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
The McCain swears it’ll only raise 20 million and Romney will raise 30. The Romney camp swears it’ll only raise 15 million and the McCain camp will raise 30. The Giuliani camp is silent. Obviously both camps are attempting spin, but I think if we sort of average each team’s predictions we’ll get to a nugget of truth. That leaves McCain with 25 million, and Romney with 22.5. I personally think Romney will raise just below that, but that’s not an awful estimate I think. But your estimates LJ are practically straight from the McCain playbook (as Jason’s were straight from the Romney playbook).
March 28th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
It will be interesting to see where the second tier candidates end up coming in when it comes to fund raising. It is too bad the races have become all about money and less about ideas, the media likes people who are rich. Welcome to modern day politics. And is is coming from a man who is just 23 years old. Only carrier politicians it seems can become president these days.
March 28th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
JL, career politician is certainly not the term I’d use to describe either Romney or Giuliani.
March 28th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
Matt,
But your estimates LJ are practically straight from the McCain playbook
Actually, my estimates are much more in line with the National Journal, AP and WaPo’s reporting rather than that of any particular campaign.
I think Romney’s numbers will surprise you.
March 28th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
OK.. I think Jason addressed this issue earlier in the week and demonstrating that $40 million was impossible and that $30 million was silly.
As many of you know I am an official unpaid fundraiser for the campaign. I don’t see all the numbers but I know enough to tell you that Romney will probably not break $20 million.
My estimate is $19.2 mill. cheers.
March 28th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
$19.2 M
I would love to be on that payroll can anyone say $$$
March 28th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Actually I am raising my predictions, slightly. When I said 15 millions it’s what I honestly felt from what I cold skim. I think Romney will be +/- 1.5million of 20 million. I would be surprised if it’s any higher.
March 29th, 2007 at 12:38 am
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March 29th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
I think this speculation is all a waste of time. Giuliani has been giving speeches for candidates since 2002 (remember Nixon in ‘68 calling in his chits ?) and raising money like crazy. He holds his cards close to the vest, does not speak with the press, and you are in for a shocker in 3 days. Finally, with California, New York, Texas all moving their primary to February 5, and Florida to January 29 (yes, this is underway) the game now is name recognition and Giuliani’s got it. It’s all over on February 5, 2008.
April 3rd, 2007 at 10:18 pm
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