The Candidates
With nearly 9,000 votes cast, the results are in for this month’s GOP Bloggers straw poll. The results are shocking:
Fred Thompson: 39%
Rudy Giuliani: 15.8%
Mitt Romney: 12.5%
Newt Gingrich: 11.2%
Duncan Hunter: 5.1%
Tom Tancredo: 4.8%
John McCain: 2.8%
Sam Brownback: 2.3%
Mike Huckabee: 1.1%
Tommy Thompson: 0.7%
Jim Gilmore: 0.3%
George Pataki: 0.2%
The first straw poll to include Thompson also shows him taking command of the field, consolidating far more first choice votes than any of his opponents. Since GOP Bloggers began asking the “first choice” question, no candidate has amassed such a significant number of first choice supporters, nor has any candidate pulled away from the rest of the field to the extent that Thompson has. Lowry is hearing that there is now a 50/50 chance that Thompson will jump in. If he does, the dynamics of the race for the GOP nomination changes overnight.
March 30th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Looks like the current field is just not doing it for many Republicans on the internet.
Over half vote for candidates who aren’t running yet (Gingrich and Thompson).
March 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Rudy and Romney will keep Thompson out of the race. It’s Rudy all the way.
..another simply astounding, fact-laden, brilliantly philosophical expose by the great KT
March 30th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
I read something before that makes sense:
Thompson is best when given a script.
Rudy writes his own scripts.
The country will soon figure out who/what Thompson really is….AN ACTOR.
March 30th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Being facetious KT?
March 30th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
I do not think that this is shocking in the least. Fred Thompson is well liked, has a strong and loyal Republican following and he tells it like it is. I think he is going to really shape the dialogue–but I am still waiting before I decide whom I want to support.
March 30th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
econ grad stud.. have you ever looked up the meaning if the word SNOB?
March 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
So, riddle me this:
In Q1 of 1999 (the last major non-incumbent election) how many candidates (GOP or DEM) raised over $10 million?
The answer is ZERO.
When the average take for Q1 this time around is $20 million, what do Thompson and Gingrich do? (for that matter what do Brownback, Huckabee and the rest of the crowd do?)
When they look at the ground game of McCain and Romney (with paid staff and financial teams in almost every primary state), when they look at the endorsements, that McCain and Romney have garnered, along with the cutting edge tech, and fundraising innovations that both camps have mustered…
What do they do?
March 30th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Yup, sounds like the Thompson camp has been working their computers.
Unfortunately, Internet polls like this one can easily be skewed by over zealous hacks.
If Fred Thompson had any real appeal he would have a much better showing in the scientific polls like this one.
Fox News - Opinion Dynamics 2008
Rudy Giuliani 36% - 20%
John McCain 20% - 19%
Fred Thompson 9% - 8%
Newt Gingrich 6% - 13%
Mitt Romney 6% - 7%
In fact, if you look at all the scientific polls that have been done, Thompson simply replaces Newt in 3rd place.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
March 30th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
If you look at the RCP average, Thompson at 10.0% does not even match Gore 14.5%(who is also not running)
March 30th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Polls like these are essentially worthless. Polls require random sampling.
Polls like these can be gamed. They can be manipulated. Didn’t Romney win one of these
recently?
March 30th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
From the whispers I have been hearing from sources I respect, Thompson is in.
March 30th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
BC,
I agree that the Internet polls and even some straw polls can be easily manipulated.
Any one scientific poll could also be off, but when you average all the major scientific polls, you do get a very good indication of momentum.
This RCP average of all the current major scientific polls gives a very good indication of candidate viability.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
March 30th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
When celebrity candidates officially announce they usually get a boost in support (Obama, Rudy). I wonder if Thompson would get a similar boost?
If so he could pull near McCain in national polls.
March 30th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
I still don’t get why Fred Thompson is doing so well, by Tommy Thompson isn’t getting anywhere. He was a fine governor. I like Fred, will support him, but it’s strange.
March 30th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
As far as conservative blogosphere Presidential preference polls, the winner is usually dictated by Glenn Reynolds. If he winds up providing a link to the poll on his website (like he did for those old Patrick Ruffini polls in ‘05) then Rudy wins, and by a fairly large margin. If Reynolds doesn’t get around to linking to the online poll, the winner usually winds up being the conservative alternative du jour (Allen, Romney, Gingrich, Thompson). This one wasn’t linked by Glenn.
March 30th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Go ahead and vote for Thompson if you really want to. It will assure another Clinton presidency. But this one won’t be nearly as moderate as the prior one - we can forget about free trade, suffer under nationalized healthcare, pay significantly higher taxes and turn the War on Terrorism over to the UN.
If you want to win in 2008, you should vote for Rudy. He is by far the most electable and the best bet the beat the Clinton machine in 2008.
March 30th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
… although, even though Glenn didn’t link it, it looks like Instapundit readers preferred Thompson over Giuliani as well, albiet by much smaller margins, so I’ll have toretract my earlier comment before someone does it for me and admit that Thompson is doing much better than the previous conservatives du jour.
As to why he’s so popular, it isn’t really a mystery. He’s a good speaker, he’s a good man, he has decent name recognition, and he is at least minimally acceptable on all of the major economic/ social issues that most GOP Primary voters care about. The only other candidate you could say that about until now was Mitt Romney, and that’s assuming you believed his multiple conversations. Is he the best choice in ‘08? I don’t think so, I think at the end of the day he’s probably not electable if the Dems nominate Obama or Edwards. Still, I’d have no problem backing him and publicly supporting him, something I can’t really say about Flip Romney.
March 30th, 2007 at 5:22 pm
I have a theory. Republicans are turning away from politicians who have been in office the last 2 years. You see a lot of support for Giuliani, Gingrich and Thompson, all candidates who haven’t been in office. Perhaps there is just fatigue with the Republicans that led us to 2006.
March 30th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Dan is wrong: Fred Thompson is beating Hillary.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Presidential%20Match-Ups/March%202007/Thompsonvs.ObamaClinton20070323.htm
March 30th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I think my comments in comment 7 got buried in discussions about the poll.
I have yet to find anyone who can tell me:
1) How do you overcome a $20 million deficit to Rudy, McCain and Romney?
2) How you build a ground game in IA, SC, NH, and FL when a good portion of the A-players are taken by Romney and McCain?
I’d love to have this discussion. I’m sure many of you have been involved in Primary campaigns. You know how this works. When a good portion of the money is already earmarked to the big three, and when the big professionals in the big primary states have already chosen side… who do you get to knock on doors in the Pan Handle? Where do you get the money for the direct mailing lists in 80+ congressional districts? Who will recruit, host and hoist your HQs in New Hampshire, in Iowa, in California?
Those who believe in a magic poll that will wipe the board are fooling themselves. Primaries are won by the best organized candidate period.
March 30th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Dave,
I have to ask, with all these (almost glowing) Thompson posts over the past week, are you thinking about jumping ship?
Kavon,
I’ve heard many of the same whispers as you have. At this point, I’d be shocked if Thompson doesn’t get in (although, I still highly doubt Newt will).
I wish reporters shed more light on the McCain-Thompson dynamic. They talk regularly and Thompson was advising McCain on policy until February. My thinking is that McCain’s campaign is grateful to a Thompson candidacy because it helps knock Rudy down to size and basically neutralizes the threat posed by Romney.
March 30th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Justin, your second question is moot, it seems to me. This primary election won’t be won with ground troops; it will be won with air power - advertising over the air on television and radio - given how many states are moving their delegate selection process (caucus, convention, or primary) up to February 5. To have any chance at all, candidates will need to be able to afford to run ads from Thanksgiving through early February in more than 20 states across the country, many of which are large and have large metropolitan markets that make it expensive to purchase time there. The money race will decide who can ante into this game. And I only see Giuliani, McCain, and Romney as viable at this stage on the Republican side, though Gingrich and Fred Thompson might well be able to get in the game later. If an upstart GOP candidate does surprisingly well in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada, it still would probably not provide enough money fast enough to impact on February 5.
But your first question goes to this point and is, I think, very germane. One of the things potential candidates like Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson are gauging and will continue to monitor (through fundraising professionals who know the terrain and players) is the degree to which large GOP donors are committed to a candidate. As we have been reminded by the Hillary and Obama battles for liberal Hollywood cash, donors can max out with multiple candidates, so it is not beyond reason to have Republican donors who have already maxed out with a Giuliani or Romney or McCain but are willing to do so again with Gingrich or Thompson if they see them as a preferable nominee. And there may be large GOP donors who have sat back and not contributed yet while the field crystallizes.
The other facet in this is that groundswell candidates like Gingrich and Fred Thompson have the potential to do very well in, during a late campaign start, is raising money over the Internet. Howard Dean showed the country what the small-donor potential of the Internet can be during the 2004 presidential primary for a grass roots, prairie fire candidate.
Finally, by definition, late campaign entrants who large chunks of GOP voters are pining for, such as arguably would be the case with Gingrich and Fred Thompson, are going to get a ton of earned (or free) media coverage that is worth millions of dollars once they get in the race. And when you add to that their name recognition, especially with Gingrich, they are already holding latent millions of dollars worth of media coverage based sheerly on their celebrity status.
Gingrich and Fred Thompson are not fools. They understand the importance of cash in competing during the 2008 cycle given the primary calendar compression. And they are not going to get in and embarrass themselves. If they pull the trigger, it is because they believe strongly that they can win the nomination by being able to raise the funds to compete and get their messages out adequately based on thorough study of the political landscape.
The good news, as I see it, for Giuliani and Romney? They have something Gingrich and Fred Thompson do not that may be crucial for voters during this election cycle - executive experience. There is no evidence that Gingrich and Fred Thompson are strong managers who could cut through the growing government leviathan and excel at implementing any great policy ideas they may have; and in the case of the Speaker, frankly and unfortunately, there is tangible evidence that he has been a poor manager. I disagree with Rich Lowry of National Review in this respect; I don’t know how McCain counteracts Gingrich and especially Thompson, both of whom will hurt him badly, if not fatally, I think. It seems to me that McCain’s time has come and gone (in 2000), though his fundraising, highly experienced and deep campaign staff, and next-in-line status within the party allow him to hang in there a long time - but not come close to winning the nomination.
One of the keys to this whole primary fight may be getting yourself into the January 30 debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library that is being held just prior to Titanic Tuesday, February 5, and which will be limited to only the top and viable GOP hopefuls. In a tight race that debate could be huge, and almost by definition if you are not invited it is only a matter of time before your candidacy collapses. The folks at the Reagan Library have opined that they want to restrict that January 30 debate to the top two or three Republican presidential aspirants, but I could see them being forced to include all of Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Fred Thompson - The Fabulous Five.
March 30th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
This is in response to Econ Grad Stud’s comment in #17:
He may have a point. The name Tom Delay comes to mind. He single handedly did more damage to republicans than a lot of others, including the president.
March 30th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Furthermore, Mr. Delay, if you are reading this: You Stink!
March 30th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
[...] a conservative void in the Republican ‘08 field is quite evident with the release of a new GOP bloggers straw poll today. FT gets an immediate double digit lead over Rudy with the right wing blogosphere. Fred [...]
March 30th, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Great points all around Republius. I consider the advertisement push to be part of the ground game… but I think you’re over-weighting the influence of air media on Primaries for 2 reasons:
1) Mass media is fast becoming a misnomer. In any major market there is no magic bullet channel - that is, there is no ONE place to saturate a market - because choice has made television and radio more and more fractious.
2) Primaries are all about GOTV… sometimes Primaries are exponentially more about GOTV than the general election. The recent poll that showed 50% of adults wouldn’t vote for Hillary means nothing when you consider this quip by a lefty pundit: “Luck for Hillary, most adults don’t vote.” The Primary game has quickly become a near science and numbers page over the past decade.
In short, I agree that radio and TV ads are important but I still feel (like Iraq) boots on the ground are what matter most.
March 30th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Justin, I think one of the things to think about is the micro-targeting concept that the Bush presidential campaigns utilized so well. That micro-targeting, which uses telephone contact and mail pieces in addition to television advertising (which can be much more segmented than you may think using cable television channels and shows that have so much variety and so many different and distinct audiences), will be used by all the big boys to do the important work of GOTV, as each GOP candidate tries to cull their niche in the Republican electorate.
I still say that traditional ground troops, in the sense of volunteers and precinct capatains and going door-to-door, will be a secondary factor in this race not only because of the compressed calendar but because cutting edge technology and campaign techniques have relegated them to such a position. In the big states, such as the one I am from, these state-wide contests are won with television advertising that is supplemented by ground troops.
Of course Iowa and New Hampshire and the like are different, but my argument assumes that such early states will not be as important as usual in this cycle due to the calendar compression. We’ll see.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
The thing about Thompson is his general election calculus. If this was the 2004 environment and the GOP and conservatives were still riding high, he’d be a great candidate. If Bush was still popular and the Bush/Rove model still worked he’d be a great candidate.
But it’s 2007/2008. Bush is at 33%. The GOP got hammered last year in both the House and the Senate. Voter ID with the GOP and with conservatism is lower than it’s been in years.
I just don’t see how Thompson expands the playing field at all. I don’t see how he wins any blue states or even gives the dems a run for their money in them. Given that many think Ohio is certain to go blue and other states like CO, NM, MO, IA, AR, etc… could tip, we need a guy who can be competitive in blue states to make up for losses in the red ones.
Would Fred have a shot or be leading in polls in PA and NJ like Rudy is(36 EVs, BTW, enough to make up for losing OH, NM and IA)? Would he resonate at all with the blue collar/ethnic/Catholic/Reagan dems in the rust belt of OH, MI, WI like Rudy would? Basically if the GOP goes with Fred, we’re putting all our chips on a replay of 2000 and 2004 and hoping to pull out another 280 EV victory by the narrowest of margins. I don’t think that strategy will work in 2008.
We need someone who can change the map, who can win in blue states, who won’t be seen as Bush’s heir.
At this point, the nominee will either be Rudy, McCain or Fred. I just don’t see Romney having a chance. If Rudy falls apart, most of his people would go towards McCain or Fred. If McCain slips or Fred doesn’t enter, that helps Rudy. I don’t see where Mitt picks up the votes.
Rudy’s strategy seems to be to lock up the liberal and moderate Republicans as well the GOP leaning independents and get enough of the conservatives to win. With him, McCain, Romney, Brownback and others splintering the conservative vote, that could work. He also seems to be positioning himself as the tough guy conservative to win over the neocon/foreign policy Republicans and the supply sider to win over the fiscal people. With social issues, he’s basically trying to strike a deal and say if you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours on Judges and other things.
If Rudy goes down, the tough guy conservatives and the foreign policy guys would most likely go to McCain or Fred, The fiscal ones might go to Mitt some, and the social ones who were with Rudy would probably go to McCain or Fred.
Of the three, Rudy, McCain and Fred I think Rudy gives us the best shot in the general in terms of expanding the map and such. That’s my worry with Thompson. Sure, he’ll be a hit with conservatives, but that won’t be enough to win in 2008. You’ll need to win over the independents and the moderates and probably win a blue state or two, or three. I don’t know if Fred can do that. McCain might be able to.
Basically, the GOP is in a big pickle. It might just be that with Iraq and other issues, 2008 is just the Dems year and the GOP is in trouble no matter hwo they go with. It’s going to be awfully tough and the 2000/2004 model won’t apply. Whoever wins the nom is going to have their work cut out for them and face a very difficult environment.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
“I have to ask, with all these (almost glowing) Thompson posts over the past week, are you thinking about jumping ship?”
I figured I’d get that question eventually
The answer is that Rudy still remains my first choice, but Thompson is definitely my second choice. The reason it seems like I am writing lots of positive posts on Thompson is that before I really didn’t have a second choice, and so all anyone ever saw from me were posts praising Rudy. Also, I find that I have less to post about Rudy now due to his status as the frontrunner, meaning that lots of others are covering him in the way that I used to. (I was touting Rudy on the blogosphere back in 2005, when no one believed he had a chance other than me, Kavon, and Patrick Ruffini.)
Prior to Thompson’s entry, Rudy was the only candidate that I personally could get excited about. But Thompson is also a candidate that excites me, which probably says a lot about the kind of candidate I am looking for. I definitely think that either Rudy or Thompson would make a great president, and while I plan to support whomever the GOP nominee ends up being, I could support Rudy or Thompson far more enthusiastically than any of the other candidates.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
As far as electoral math goes, I think Rudy remains in a stronger position than Thompson, though I definitely think Thompson could win a solid EC victory. Every bit of polling we have thus far shows that Rudy wins converts to the GOP ticket in the east and the west. These converts aren’t enough to flip lots of dark blue states, but they do add the electoral votes of states like Oregon and Pennsylvania to the GOP column, as well as perhaps New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Additionally, these same converts solidify Florida and the states in the mountain west in the GOP column. At that point, the Democrats have to hold all of those narrowly decided Great Lakes states, as well as make inroads into the border states or the south, something that most of the Democratic frontrunners would be unable to do.
In Thompson’s case, we’re back to red v. blue. Thompson brings southerners out in droves to vote GOP once again, meaning that the entire south is off the table for the Dems. Thompson is also enough of a Ronald Reagan Republican to do better than Bush in the west, which will make it hard for the Dems to steal the close states in the southwest. Thompson could probably use his positions plus his gravitas, charisma, and skills with rhetoric to hold the Bush voters in the midwest while also winning a few more. “A few more” is all it would take to ensure Ohio and Iowa stay red, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan turn red as well. Again, that would do the job.
March 30th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
In regards to KT’s #23,
I think KT, should get his own archive underneath Deroy’s. I think his are the most priceless.
March 30th, 2007 at 11:37 pm
No one is coming directly off the set of a TV show and into a presidential race.
It simply isn’t happening.
March 31st, 2007 at 12:32 am
I tend to agree with Peter. Reagan was also an actor but his last movie was in the early 60s and he really stopped acting before that. He had served two terms as Governor of CA and was the national voice of and leader of conservatism for close to 20 years. He ran in 1968 and 1976 prior to 1980. He was running against Carter who was a hugely unpopular incumbent with failed/humilating foreign policy and an awful economy.
Thompson is still acting, never really made any notable achievements in the Senate ie leading any major committees or being a voice or policy guru on anything. He has no real executive experience to speak of. He was never known as conservative leader or even a Republican leader. Prior to a couple of weeks ago, did anyone think of him as some conservative standardbearer? I think his popularity is basically due to the fact the conservatives aren’t thrilled with the current crop so they grab on to anything.
In 2008 it will be the GOP trying to hold on to the WH despite a hugely unpopular President and foriegn policy. The situations are totally different.
I think DaveG slightly overstates his electoral chances. Another Conservative with a drawl who voted for and supports the Iraq War, who comes off as being the choice of the Religious Right and the socail conservatives, and is basically seen as Bush’s heir isn’t going to do well, I would suggest.
Yes, Thompson would hold the South, but I think he’d be hard pressed in the blue states.
It’s ironic that people are holding out Thompson as some hard core conservative when if you look at his voting record it’s not much different from McCain. Most articles and stories from his time in the Senate have him listed as a moderate conservative and a protege of liberal Senator Howard Baker.
People tear McCain apart for CFR but Thompson helped draft it and was one of its biggest supporters.
They talk about McCain’s age but Thompson is no spring Chicken. He’d be 67 in 2009, the 2nd oldest at inauguration behind Reagan.
People talk about Giuliani being divorced but so is Thompson, and Thompson has quite a reputation with the ladies as well. Does anyone know the circumstances of his divorce? Are the family values and social conservatives going to love a guy who’s divorced and married someone 25 years his junior, after a bachelor period in DC during which by most accounts he did quite well for himself.
Instead of debates maybe we could have Rudy, Fred and John on “The Newlywed Game” All 3 divorced. All 3 with a “trophy wife”, although Judy is 52, a lot closer in age to Rudy than the other two spouses.
Has anyone done research on the 20 years Thompson spent as a DC lobbyist, including as a registered agent for various foreign countries? Who he represented? He might try to play the outsider card, but is 20 years a lobbyist, 8 as a Senator, and being an inside the beltway guy all the back to Watergate really the Resume of an outsider? Will it be believeable? Is he going to campaign around the country in a Red pick up again?
It’s amazing with the speed that so many seem to have jumped on the Fred bandwagon, which I think just goes to show how dissatisfied people are with the current field.
Who knows, this time next year we may all be FREDeralists?
March 31st, 2007 at 1:15 am
Thompson is the consensus conservative, period. This straw poll is an early indication of that. As the public catches up to the blogosphere in terms of knowledge about the candidates, you’ll see the public polls begin to move toward the results of this straw poll.
March 31st, 2007 at 1:59 am
Thompson is more like a passing fansy, probably as long lasting as Obama. His resume is barely good enough to be a governor. There is simply no way he is qualified to take on the presidency. Probably he will stay undecided for a few months before he admits he has no desire to run for president. All of this waiting will probably result in the second tier candidates being squeezed out real quickly.
March 31st, 2007 at 2:06 am
Thompson’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. He’s the flavor of the week. You guys are looking at the raw numbers but if you look at the website they also ask how set are you on this candidate. 1 being dead set and 4 and 5 being very weak support. 60% of Thompson’s support is in the 4 and 5 catergory.
On a scale of 1 to 5, how committed are you to your candidate?
4 1324 (38.4%)
5 986 (28.6%)
3 789 (22.9%)
2 185 (5.4%)
1 119 (3.5%)
(none) 46 (1.3%)
March 31st, 2007 at 7:55 am
Jason on #35 is not me, although I do agree with him.
March 31st, 2007 at 8:05 am
[...] Race42008 posts on the surprising strength of Fred Thompson in the March 2007 GOP Straw Poll. This post prompted me to add the former Senator — and GOP Straw Polls to my Election 2008 Squidoo Lens. [...]
March 31st, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Jason: It’s the reverse!
“On a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being not very sure and 5 being dead-set, how committed are you to the candidate of your choice?”
March 31st, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Jim of #28 & #33, I totally agree with you. I’ve said it before and it should be repeated, the same ol’ same ol’ just isn’t going to cut it this election. Even the Republicans are starting to attack their own in congress trying to distance themselves from this administration. The Democrats won’t even have to fight for a while, they can sit back and let the Republicans do the early work to thin the herd.
The best thing the Democrats have going is that they aren’t Republicans. I don’t think any candidate that resembles Bush, i.e. SoCo and pro war, is going grab many Independents at all. In fact they will most likely lose the more moderate Republicans.
People are tired of ALL of it; the war, the shrinking paychecks and the hypocrisy. They want something different and no one other than Rudy different enough to fit that bill. Not from the GOP ticket anyway.
March 31st, 2007 at 1:46 pm
To Jim: Read back on the former posts about Thompson to get a reading on his personal life. There is no comparison between the personal lives of Guiliani and Thompson, although I personally like both candidates. I defend Thompson strongly on this website because a) I’m quite familiar with his personal background, and b) this site goes after him more than the other sites (which doesn’t mean you guys are wrong in your opinion). One big thing in comparison that will way on the minds of some of the family values crowd is that Thompson was a bachelor when he wined and dined the ladies, while Rudy was MARRIED when he was doing it. There’s a big difference.
March 31st, 2007 at 1:47 pm
To Jim: Read back on the former posts about Thompson to get a reading on his personal life. There is no comparison between the personal lives of Guiliani and Thompson, although I personally like both candidates. I defend Thompson strongly on this website because a) I’m quite familiar with his personal background, and b) this site goes after him more than the other sites (which doesn’t mean you guys are wrong in your opinion). One big thing in comparison that will way on the minds of some of the family values crowd is that Thompson was a bachelor when he wined and dined the ladies, while Rudy was MARRIED when he was doing it. There’s a big difference.
Jason and MN Conservative: Thompson’s support in the south is hardly flavor of the week material.
March 31st, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Dave,
Prior to Thompson’s entry, Rudy was the only candidate that I personally could get excited about. But Thompson is also a candidate that excites me, which probably says a lot about the kind of candidate I am looking for.
Indeed, it does. But it seems we are excited by different types of candidates. I never made much of a connection with Rudy, even during 9/11, and that’s why I’ve been so ambivalent about him. I obviously recognize his political and electoral strengths, but he doesn’t excite me at all. Thompson’s even worse though because not only does he leave me cold but he has no real accomplishments or qualifications to be President.
At the same time, my enthusiasm for John McCain is unmatched. His vision for America has had a huge impact on the way I think about politics and view the world. I would gladly pick up trash on the street if it helped him.
March 31st, 2007 at 6:09 pm
LJ, you do realize it’s very hard to find any human who is emotional about John McCain? Positive emotions, that is.
How can you be ideologically inspired by a man who eschews ideology?
March 31st, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Just what is John McCain’s “vision for America”? That’s such a lofty phrase. How does it differ in any meaningful way from Bush’s vision? Giuliani’s? Thompson’s? I’ve followed John McCain for sometime and other than campaign finance and pork spending I couldn’t tell you what’s unique about his vision. His defense/foreign policy is pretty standard conservative/republican. On certain social issues he may differ somewhat from some guys. Does he really have a unique vision? I don’t really think any GOP candidate does. Very few Presidents have had unique visions. Since WW2 LBJ and Reagan are probably the only two.
Tommy, why did Thompson get divorced? I don’t think someone becomes a ladies man in their 50s and starts squiring around hot young blondes out of the blue. I wouldn’t be shocked if he wasn’t exactly Mr. Faithful either, and I’ve read some artciles and rumors to that effect. I’m not saying he wasn’t, but we don’t know why he got divorced.
As for your bachelor argument, I thought sex outside of marriage is a huge no no to most of the religious right and the evangelical community. I remmember reading articles a few years ago about how Thompson was a notorious swordsman, and that was one of the reasons he wouldn’t run for national office. If some of his exploits start to surface, it’ll be interesting to see the reaction.
Although, I must add, that his wife would probably be the hottest first lady ever, certainly a FLILF, so that’s a plus. On that score, the GOP spouses are collectively pretty hot. Between Jeri, Judy, Cindy and Ann, Michelle Obama and Liz Edwards don’t even compare. Like I said, instead of a debate, we could have Fred, Rudy, John and Newt do the Newlywed Game and compare bedroom tales. I think they have 11 wives between them, and loads more “girlfriends”.
As for Rudy’s marriage, if you go back and read articles at the time, people were pronouncing his marriage over in 1997. His wife renounced his last name, refused to campaign with him, and basically went her own way, to quote Fleetwood Mac. There’s articles with people writing, albeit sarcastically that Rudy should find a woman who will be there for him and support him becuase his wife obviously isn’t.