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Soren Dayton at Eyeon08.com provides excellent analysis on all of yesterday’s fundraising numbers.
On Brownback:
Sam Brownback substantially differentiated himself from the rest of the second tier candidates, essentially putting him in a second tier alone, and moving the rest to the third tier.
I completely agree with this assertion. It has been noted that Brownback has developed a strong small-dollar direct-mail base, which will most likely sustain Brownback’s current fundraising numbers and at the same time allow Brownback to continue to do major high-dollar events, which will lead to higher fundraising numbers for the next quarter. While most candidates struggle to increase or even maintain 1Q numbers, it might be possible for Brownback to increase his numbers.
On Romney:
First, Romney’s results speak to the strength of his donor base. As Hotline’s Marc Ambinder repeatedly points out, Mitt Romney has the largest low-hanging fruit network known to politics. The idea that this is because of his “message” is laughable. The dude has zillions of rich friends. He was an investment banker and venture capitalist. Those guys have lots of dough. Proof? Compare the number of donors and contribution sizes. Romney had about 35,000, and McCain 60,000. The average size of Romney donations was 4x larger than McCain. This tells us that a lot of people were cutting big checks to Romney. Which matches his profile (not his message)
I couldn’t of said it better. Like I noted yesterday, while Romney raised an impressive amount of money, Romney is missing something key — a consistent conservative record — which is something that money simply can’t buy. This is why Romeny continues to make little or no progress in polls. His money simply can’t translate into support. His money can easily buy organizational strength and paid media — but without a message for your organization and your media to deliver, this does not translate into support. The results of the Spartanburg, South Carolina straw poll is good evidence of this — Romney had around 10 paid field staffers, aired commercials, and spoke at a major GOP dinner there. Despite all this, he placed 5th.
UPDATE: Kung Fu Quip informs us that Romney’s fundraising numbers came from a small pool of people who maxed out, rather then a massive donor base. These are actually words right out of Romney’s mouth on the Today Show.
On McCain:
What happened to John McCain? The first part of the answer is probably that, like Hillary, they didn’t think that they needed to start this early. As a number of reports have noted, the McCain campaign didn’t start fundraising until March. The McCain campaign simply wasn’t putting together events. The second part of the answer is there were organizational problems that have been noted. McCain startled shuffling several weeks ago. The problem that the McCain campaign has is that now they have a quarter of bad fundraising and struggling nation-wide poll numbers, although pretty good in the early states. The fundraising team is going to have to become more aggressive. And McCain is going to have to do the rubber chicken circuit.
Obviously, McCain did not do well at all. My question is whether or not McCain has aggressively tapped out the wealthy Washington, DC establishment that is backing him yet. My best guess is no, and there is no doubt in my mind that McCain can easily fundraise very well if he focuses on it for awhile. Additionally, I think McCain has a better and more appealing message then Romney does, which I would take over money any day.
On Rudy:
Rudy Giuliani did a great job. $15m is a great late-start number. They should be happy and proud, especially because of their low burn-rate.
Agreed.
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:39 pm
I find it hilarious that Brownback folks pile on Romney for not doing better in polls when Brownback barely scrapes and claws his way into asterix status. Almost as funny as defining the 2nd tier candidates as those who can raise $900k more than 3rd tier candidates.
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:45 pm
[...] post by Billy Valentine and software by Elliott [...]
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:46 pm
I’m sorry to say this Billy, but there are no second tier candidates. Romney’s the closest to a second tier candidate, everyone else is literally irrelevant. Chris Dodd, who couldn’t win the Democratic nomination in any conceivable universe, likely outraised all of the Republican candidates combined beyond Romney, Giuliani, and McCain.
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:51 pm
Brownback has much more organizational strength and fundraising strength then any of the 2nd/3rd tier candidates (such as Huckabee, Tancredo, Gilmore, etc) but obviously does not have the same strengths as the 1st tier. That is why Brownback stands alone in the 2nd tier.
Murphy, the last Gallup poll showed Romney and Brownback tied. If Brownback had the type of money Romney has, combine that with his message, and he’d be doing much more better then Romney on a national scale.
For now, Brownback is making progress where it counts — in the early states.
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Billy,
All I have to say is you have a convenient memory of polls and which ones to use for your arguments.
April 3rd, 2007 at 12:59 pm
Anyone who says that Romney has no message simply has not paid attention. I and many others support him for his message *not* for the size of his pocket book. I find it insulting that some would suggest otherwise.
It is also very well known that Soren Dayton is a die-hard Rudy fan. I don’t think he has ever posted anything positive about Romney, and rarely posts fair articles about his candidacy. He frequently claims that Romney has been attacking Rudy’s “family life.” The man and his site have zero credibility with me. With all this darn near undisputable, should I be surprised that Soren Dayton would spin Romney’s fund-raising lead negatively? Should anyone?
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Billy,
Normally I dislike polls this early because they fail to incorporate everything important in the race…namely the next 10 months of debates, fundraising, campaigning, and gaffes. But even if current polling were an accurate portrayal (which it’s not), you’re cherry picking the single poll that shows Brownback and Romney tied at 3%. Are you familiar with the concept of a “margin of error”? As in, +/- 5%?
As for the “if Brownback had Romney’s money” sentiment…that’s entirely the point. If anyone really thought he had a good message and/or chance of winning, they’d whip out the checkbooks. But go ahead and poop on Romney and Huckabee…I guess you’ve got to have something to post on.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:05 pm
I tend to agree that Romney already has a very network of wealth out there. Also, where Rudy is concerned, this kind of reminds me of CPAC, where Rudy came in second, but seemed like the real winner in terms of true value results. Now, if only I could understand what I just wrote.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Indeed, Jason. I think Billy adds a valuable contribution to this site, just as Brownback adds a valuable contribution to the race. But lets call a spade a spade. Brownback may or may not be mildly superior to Huckabee and Gilmor, but he can in no way be considered a second tier candidate in the same sense that someone like Bill Richarson is. And while I’m at it, I’ll go ahead and admit that Romney’s got a difficult and uphill battle to the nomination. But its a pathway that reasonable minds can envision being traversed. I simply can’t imagine any such pathway for Brownback.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Murphy, Romney has a huge advantage on fundraising because of his extensive business connections. I am not disputing that. He knows a ton of people that can max out on him. And I believe these are people that would give money to him regardless of where he stood on any of the issues. What I am saying is that I do not see how he has been able to OR how he will be able to translate it into support in the polls.
Romney has literally been trying to paint himself as the ultimate conservative on every single issue. His past shows differently. That is not a message, that is convenience. And from what polls show so far, people are seeing the same thing I am.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Excellent point Murphy,
I guess some refuse to believe that Romeny is supported with high dollar contributions as a result of his record, message, and accomplishments. Instead they must think all the support must be exclusively coming from “rich friends and Mormons” despite a record raise for any Republican.
No matter the accomplishment, Romney’s parade will be rained upon.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Billy,
Are you referring to polls in Iowa, NH, and Michigan?
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Alright Billy. Name every single issue. It’s been pretty easy to bat these down before, I don’t mind re-pasting.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Matt, the same holds true for Brownback — he certainly has a difficult path.
But the way I see it is this — the more people learn about Brownback and look into his record — on fiscal and social issues — the more they like him. The more people he is exposed to, the more support he is finding and the more support he will continue to find.
The key is dismissing the myth that Brownback is “unelectable.” I personally believe that the conservative message resonates with people more then the liberal message. I believe that any conservative could easily beat Hillary in the general. But apparently, other conservatives don’t think the same way I do. They think that conservative policy and values is in the minority. So — they settle for less. This is what Brownback has been combating and will need to combat.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Fund-raising does not guarantee higher polls numbers, but higher polling requires money and excellent fund-raising.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Please forgive me if I disillusion anyone (yet again), but to say, as a positive remark, of any candidate of any “tier” that: “For now, [he]is making progress where it counts in the early states” is one of the best examples I have yet seen of “preparing to fight the last war”! In 2008, there will be NO EARLY STATES, in the classic sense that one used to speak of Iowa, New Hampshire, and (recently) South Carolina.
With all the states now lining up for a Mega-Super-Tuesday on 05 February, it will not be possible this time round to pursue the classic strategy of “surprising by surpassing expectations in the early states”, and then using that “momentum” to raise money to roll out a campaign in the later-voting states. No, this time round, the nomination will be decided no later than 05 February 2008. Let me say that again, louder: NO, THIS TIME ROUND THE NOMINATION WILL BE DECIDED NO LATER THAN 05 FEBRUARY 2008.
What this means is that, for any candidate to have any chance, he will have to raise enough “Mega-Super-Bucks” so that, no later than just after Thanksgiving, his campaign can be up-and-running with TV Ads, a direct-mail operation, and plenty of phone banks in California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, et al. Any candidate who cannot raise money and compete in this fashion, i.e., who cannot “fight the next war”, will stand no chance at all, no matter how well he does in January, in the “classic” “early states” of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, where this time round, it WILL NOT COUNT, in any meaningful sense.
Thus, Matt is absolutely correct, in my view, to say “but there are no second tier candidates. Romney’s the closest to a second tier candidate, everyone else is literally irrelevant”!
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Abortion. Gays. Guns. Bush Tax Cuts. Campaign Finance Reform. I’ve heard the arguments that he hasn’t flipped on these issues, and they all are pretty pathetic. But go ahead, have a field day.
For anyone not in denial, just take a look on YouTube and watch Romney in his own words back in the day before his “conversion” on all conservative issues. The guy didn’t even support Reagan.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:18 pm
With all due respect to Billy, and having being in the game I am extremely reticent to jump someone with respect to his guy, the question is whether there is any real significance in being a second- versus a third-tier GOP presidential contender?
Given the compressed election calendar that has created the equivalent of a one-month national primary where big money will be required to ante into this game, I don’t see how anyone other than the top-tier candidates can be taken as serious contenders for the nomination.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Republius, at this point yes, it does matter, because it shows momentum. With momentum and support shifting constantly in the top-tier (just look at all the GOP Bloggers Straw polls), it shows that there is a lack of consensus on the current front-runners. That, I believe, shows that there is still room for another first-tier candidate. What specifically will bring Brownback up there? I don’t know. Certainly, a very strong showing in Ames could do it.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Billy,
Don’t forget “Amnesty Sam” has flipped too. I welcome his conversion and recognize his great work since his conversion.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Laughable.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Good points Matt & Luther:
I’d also like to add that this strategy highly favors Hillary Clinton and others with high name recognition. This is why fundraising as started so early. This is also why Thompson & Gingrich have little hope.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:26 pm
I wouldn’t count Brownback out just yet he is definitely still towards the top of the 2nd tier of candidates. The very fact that you are all jumping on him shows he is a serious contender for the nomination I expect him to stay in for the long haul and make some real in roads espically in Iowa where he has the potential to grown a strong organization out there Iowa likes conservatives and Brownback fits the mold Iowa residents are looking for.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Please show me how Brownback has flipped on marriage, Bush tax cuts, and campaign finance reform as well. Plus, I don’t think Brownback made any TV commercials for a Bush-hating liberal mayor, nor did he ever state that he was an “independent” during the Reagan years.
Romney is a miracle… continues to have the ability to walk, even with no spine.
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Provable.
Would you care to rebut Matt Lewis’s claims, which he still stands by?
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Billy,
I was hoping you’d do a little better than just naming issues without trying to back it up. Oh well.
Abortion — Yup, he flipped during his Governorship, no denying that.
Gays — Always for equal rights in terms of housing, employment, etc. Always against gay marriage or civil unions.
Guns — Always in favor of AWB. In 2004 and 2005, Romney reformed MA gun laws that clarified the state’s gun laws so that hunters would understand exactly the safety precautions expected of them. This was met with wide praise from 2nd amendment enthusiasts. Romney has been rated a “B” from the NRA.
CFR — In 2002/03 Romney called for campaign finance reform and spoke out against corruption in the political process. Romney has always been in favor of more transparency and disclosure. Romney never supported the McCain bill. Complaining about political corruption is not the same as cutting off 1st amendment rights 60 days prior to an election.
Bush Tax Cuts — The claim that newly elected Governor Romney did not support the Bush tax cuts quotes Boston newspapers which were quoting liberal Democrats who were paraphrasing Romney’s remarks from a private meeting. Here’s some more quotes from Romney to clarify:
His spokeswoman said that “the governor has neither endorsed nor opposed the tax cut plan because “it’s just not a state matter.”
“I very much support an economic stimulus,” Romney said. “An economic stimulus is a good thing for Massachusetts.”Pressed further, he said, “I don’t wade into national politics. I will let our delegation sort that out.”
Refusal to endorse is not equivalent to opposition. Romney even claimed at the time that regardless of his feelings (supporting or opposing) on the tax cuts he would not endorse them. There’s nothing Romney said that contradicts his recent remarks supporting the Bush Tax Cuts, and if you look at his record for clarification you’ll see a fiscally conservative stewardship.
Reagan — Romney has stated that he has never voted for a Democrat in the general election. You may have in mind his 1994 quote that he was not trying to return MA to the Reagan-Bush era. That was simply a non-specific non-answer to a no-win question in front of a liberal audience. Look at his 1994 platform and you won’t see a squishy liberal. http://www.politico.com/pdf/wmr_1994_senate_flier_side_1.pdf
April 3rd, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Where was Reagan at this point in 1979? (In the polls)
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:29 pm
No idea.
The point is that there is no set favorite in the 1st tier because the majority within the party are not content with any of them. Brownback has a strong record on two issues very important to the party: Fiscal and Social issues. All he needs is a major push (Ames) and he could become a consensus candidate.
And at the very least, he holds candidates accountable in debates especially on social issues.
But make no doubt about it: He is in it to win. And so is his campaign. And to distance themselves from the 3rd tier thanks to great organizing (examples: March for Life, CPAC, Spartanburg) has been a significant accomplishment.
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:29 pm
It looks like the analysis at this point is reduced to polls, gotchas, and money.
These elements are untethered from the reality of policy, leadership and message.
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Econ grad stud, I am confident Brownback has been doing well because of policy, leadership, and message, and that these things will bring forth the money needed in order to win. I think this is easier to do then what the other candidates have to do — translate polls, endorsements, and money into actual support.
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Billy,
So you aren’t going to rebut Matt Lewis’s claims?
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:39 pm
billy,
check out how your horse is doing in the previous Rasmussen post…
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Romney is the only fiscally conservative, pro-life candidate with the intelligence, ability, experience and fund raising capability to win the presidency for the Republicans. Game over IMO. He also is a great leader, and could turn this country around positively, with a democratic majority in congress mind you, and fix the major economic, social and international issues that are looming before us all.
April 3rd, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Jason,
Yes, I am. There is absolutely no evidence besides some party kool-aid drinkers that he used to be pro-choice. Brownback says he has always been pro-life and Rob Wasinger stated the same in the interview I posted. I would take Brownback and Rob’s word over Matt Lewis, who is citing some party kool-aid drinker any day.
You have no proof. Look no further then YouTube to find proof Romney used to be in support of baby killing.
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:09 pm
going back to my last comment…….
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Has everybody seen this click on Partial Birth abortions and Rudy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giZx5i3Ntv0&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalderby%2Ecom%2F
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:11 pm
make that clip…
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:12 pm
JFKNA, I look forward to seeing your reactions to an upcoming Club for Growth on Romney. I do not think it will be favorable, given what CATO had to say about him.
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:18 pm
I perhaps bring a scarce view to this race. I haven’t lined up behind any candidate.
None of the candidates lines up with me ideologically (Newt is probably closest) and I don’t go for personal loyalty with regards to politicians. I’m just trying to figure out who’s the lesser evil.
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:28 pm
This is off-issue. Out great, wonderful, intelligent, compassionate, great communicator president just said that oli prices are high this week, because the British hostage crisis has “spooked” people and the price of oil. UMm…what about the rise of gas prices since three weeks ago?? Has he found an excuse all of a sudden? This is one of many, many things that he has said, where he just plain and simple should keep his mouth shut. The man is an idiot. To anyone I offend, I apologize.
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:33 pm
KT, I can’t disagree with the substance of what you say but attacking the leader of the GOP in the _SAME_ language a Democrat would use isn’t helpful. It’s these types of comments from Republicans that annoy me most because we make over-the-top Democratic criticisms of Bush seem acceptable.
Perhaps a modicum of respect is deserved for the office of the Presidency even if not for the individual?
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:45 pm
You are really grasping at straws here Billy. My prediction is that Brownback won’t even make it to the finish line. He won’t raise enough through the whole year to match what Romney did in his initial fundraiser.
April 3rd, 2007 at 3:55 pm
My prediction is that Brownback won’t even make it to the finish line.
——
I can’t say I agree with you there from what I have seen and heard Brownback intends to go far. He may not make it to the end but he will make it through the summer. Candidates will want to make it Ames to see how they do in Iowa.
April 3rd, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Billy,
Can Brownback furnish any statements, writings, speeches prior to Matt Lewis’s claimed conversion that would show him as pro-life?
I think in his rebuttal video, Brownback claimed that he just didn’t want to call himself pro-life. Hardly a good argument, and the question is, why would he not want to refer to himself as pro-life?
April 3rd, 2007 at 7:08 pm
I cant wait now to see what the 2nd quarter will bring with fundraising numbers since everyone, including the MSM, love to think that Romney cant repeat the success of 1Q. I think the idea of students for Mitt, where thousands of young students will be out raising money, will provide a ton of cash. I think as his poll number go up, as they will a great deal when he wins the debates by a mile, his cash will grow. And I think there are a ton of conservatives (and a TON of Mormons) who have yet to give are going to wait and see.
April 3rd, 2007 at 7:12 pm
this is just opinion too but…
I think that the 2nd and 3rd tier candidate supporters will go toward Romney in the end and here’s why.
Tancredo-tough on the border like Mitt, and McCain and Rudy would be thought to be too soft.
Gingrich-conservative, pro life, and his supporters wouldnt gravitate toward pro choice Rudy, or McLame “the anti Republican” Republican.
Brownback- again, pro life would be the issue, and Romney is pro life today. They will get beyond his former position.
Hunter-pro life, fiscial conservative,
Huck- again, pro life.
Billy, I’ll save a seat for you on the Romney bandwagon.
April 3rd, 2007 at 9:22 pm
The original post was a lot of “Bash the Rich” stuff. Last I checked, a dollar contributed by somebody who works at Bain Consulting is worth the same as one contributed by someone who works the night shift (or whatever) at the local plant.
Romney raised about $20 million. Brownback raised about $2 billion. Therefore, Romney did 10 times as well as Brownback.
The fact that McCain, with the 2000 run, plenty of big Bush fundraisers and all his years in Congress, laid a big fundraising egg says quite a bit about his lack of committed support.
April 3rd, 2007 at 9:25 pm
I’m a Giuliani guy myself, but you gotta have respect for Brownback. I know Giuliani is not acceptable to a lot of social conservatives but hey, at least he is principled. The same goes for Brownback- he doesn’t have the name recognition or the money that he needs, but he’s a principled guy. Romney on the other hand is a tool who will adopt any position to win the nomination. The guy is not a conservative at heart as he claims to be.
April 3rd, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Brownback raised about $2 billion.
—-
Wow he did a lot better than a thought.. Is this a typo?
April 3rd, 2007 at 10:12 pm
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April 3rd, 2007 at 10:55 pm
#27 KT: I found an article about a Harris Poll from March or April, 1979. At that time, the top choices among Republicans and independents nationwide for the Republican nomination were:
Ronald Reagan 31%
Gerald Ford 23%
Howard Baker 13%
John Connally 7%
Lowell Weicker 4%
Philip Crane 3%
John Anderson 2%
George Bush 2%
Bob Dole 2%
Robert Ray 1% (then-governor of Iowa — I had never heard of him before just now)
Jack Kemp 1%
Among Republicans alone:
Reagan 34%
Ford 26%
Baker 14%
Connally 8%
April 5th, 2007 at 8:18 am
As his profile grows, so will Romney. First, everyone talks about the fundrasing. Even if most of the money
came from business conections and friends. And 35,000 donors is alot of ‘friends’, this means that he can
use the time and money to get his message out. I like most of the Republican field, but Giuliani and McCain
have had what Romney and Brownback have not…name recognition. Alot of people say I like Rudy, or John.
They don’t know much about what they stand for, they just know them from the past. As Romney gets more attention,
his polls will grow. As he debates the others and people can compare them side by side, he will be found
very likeable, knowledgable and very good in front of the camera. This wil start to show soon.
Second, the flip – flopping. Most liberal causes think that Romney may have over stated his views to get
elected in a very bue state. I tend to agree. If you take his campaign back then and look at his record as
governor, you will find that time and again he championed conservative values. The fact that the left felt duped
should make you feel confident on where Romney stands.
I like things about all of the candidates, but felt I needed to defend Romney. The spin here is dizzying. I think
Romney will surprise people as much with polls as he did with fundraising in the coming months.