The Candidates
ARG has just released another batch of state-by-state polling on the presidential race, this time focusing on the states of Colorado, West Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. Like most polling these days, ARG finds the race on the GOP side tightening, while Hillary maintains a solid lead over Obama and Edwards on the Democratic side. Let’s get right to the numbers:
GOP Primary
Colorado
Rudy: 25%
McCain: 23
F. Thompson: 10
Romney: 9
Gingrich: 8
Tancredo: 7
Brownback: 3
T. Thompson: 3
Huckabee: 2New Jersey
Rudy: 38
McCain: 23
Gingrich: 10
F. Thompson: 8
Romney: 8
Pataki: 3New York
Rudy: 50
McCain: 14
F. Thompson: 7
Romney: 7
Gingrich: 6
Pataki: 3West Virginia
McCain: 33
Rudy: 29
Romney: 8
F. Thompson: 6
Gingrich: 6
If you absolutely must see the Democratic numbers, click on the link above.
April 3rd, 2007 at 9:45 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
April 3rd, 2007 at 10:34 pm
Romney, Thompson, and Gingrich are absolutely huddled on top of each other. If ever these teams coalesce around one candidate, Giuliani and McCain would be out of business.
April 3rd, 2007 at 10:42 pm
So any specific reason why West Virginia is McCain country? He’s behind in Colorado, out in his neck of the woods, but 4 points up on Giuliani in West VA?
April 3rd, 2007 at 11:17 pm
West Virginia’s attachment to the GOP is cultural only (social conservative); this state is overwhelmingly poor, white and old.
So with those demographics the question is where does Giuliani get so much support in that state to finish only 4 behind?
April 3rd, 2007 at 11:23 pm
[...] http://race42008.com/2007/04/03/poll-alert-nj-ny-co-wv/ [...]
April 4th, 2007 at 12:44 am
The Colorado poll shows a very tight and contested state. I wasn’t aware that such a diverse and strong group of various supporters were so close to each other. I crunched some numbers and came up with this:
Mean Std. Dev. Std. Err. Median Range Min Max Q1 Q3
10 8.440971 2.8136573 8 23 2 25 3 10
That is a pretty tight grouping. Most polls usually have standard deviation at 13-18% and a mean in the mid teens, but this has the average for 10% per candidate and a 23 pt spread from weakest to strongest. It is a real King of the Mountain scenario out there in CO.