It’s an interesting National GOP poll this morning:
No numbers provided for the rest of the candidates. Some quick thoughts:
*This is the highest result for Romney since Scott began polling this race.
*Giuliani has lost nearly 30% of his support in the past month, going from 37% to 27%.
*Rudy’s favorable ratings have plummeted from 71% to 58% over that time period (although to be fair, 58% is still the highest of the GOP candidates).
Additionally, Scott highlighted some recent general election matchups:
Do not underestimate John Edwards…
April 10th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Yup,
The 2008 election is going to be very tough. Those who thought Hillary would be easy to defeat, are discounting the very tough anti-GOP political climate.
Generic Dems are defeating Generic Republicans by almost 20% and with many more Republican Senate seats to lose in 08, we are in very serious trouble.
April 10th, 2007 at 10:32 am
The head-to-head polls throughout the year will seal the nomination for Rudy.
You have to wonder if the Dems might consider Edwards as a better anti-Hillary than Obama.
April 10th, 2007 at 10:46 am
If Edwards can get the backing I think an Edwards/Obama ticket would be really tough to beat. Hillary/Edwards could also be very strong. Obama says he’s not interested in the VP job but we’ll see when push comes to shove.
April 10th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Romney has gained 50% since his fundraising announcement. But polls mean nothing right now anyways – so, I’ll keep my joy to a minimum. I wonder what happens when Gingrich is removed from the fold. I wonder the same about FDT but I guess they should keep including him because right now he is the “White Knight.”
April 10th, 2007 at 11:05 am
From this poll we can see that Giuliani is guaranteed to beat Clinton or Obama, and Edwards is guaranteed to beat Giuliani. Why not just have the GOP run the strongest candidate and draft John Edwards? He would be very effective in this tough anti-GOP political environment. I think the head-to-head polls will seal the deal for him with everyone except those hardcore right wingers.
April 10th, 2007 at 11:12 am
Murphy,
I think you’re right. I say we run Edwards or Nancy Reagan. She is the heir to Reagan after all.
April 10th, 2007 at 11:26 am
The comment above about Rudy’s loss of support in this Rasmussen poll is distinctly misleading. In the six weeks prior to the poll on 04 April, Rudy’s support ranged from 32% to 37%, and dipping slightly to 35% in the poll released on 27 March. Then, last week’s poll, released 03 April, was the first one to include Fred Thompson, and Rudy’s lead over John McCain in 2nd place dropped to 26%-16%, with Thompson debuting at 14%. This was the first time in seven weeks that Rudy’s support dropped below 30%. With respect to this week’s poll, released 10 April, as Rasmussen itself says, “[the] figures are virtually unchanged from a week ago.” Actually, Rudy’s total has gone back up by a point, from 26% to 27%, and his lead gone back up from 10% to 11%.
What all this actually indicates is that Rudy’s lead over the pack has settled out at double digits, even after the Thompson boomlet has been factored in, with four other candidates, two of whom are not actually running, fighting it out for second place at somewhere between 10 and 19 points behind. Make of the numbers what you will, the reality is a far cry from the implication of the “analysis” above that Rudy has simply “lost nearly 30% of his support in the past month”.
Finally, while I’m at it, let me mention Rudy’s 22-32 point lead over the pack (28%-16% over McCain, with Romney at 06%), in this week’s Gallup Poll, historically considered to be the most reliable.
April 10th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
The more polls like this show up, the more likely an Edwards nomination becomes.
April 10th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Luther, it couldn’t be that his favorability rating has dropped by 13 points during that time period, could it? Personally, I think it’s a combination of the two (favorability declining and Thompson being included). But to pretend Rudy is doing as well as he was a month ago is to turn a blind eye to voters’ opinions of the man.
April 10th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
It’s inevitable that Rudy’s suppport was going to fall (and may continue).
He’s a Liberal Republican, there were (are) some social conservative voter that think he’s pro-life, anti-civil unions. As these voters learn of his position they’ll cut him off like a diseased limb.
Maybe there aren’t enough conservative voters to deny Rudy the nomination but his support won’t rise any higher than when his identity was as a sort of super hero and his liberalism was unknown.
April 10th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Darnit. I just typed an obscenely long post, and somehow erased it. So I’ll try to summarize it quickly. What Rudy Giuliani needs to do, if he wants to win the nomination, is stop discussing abortion as if he were on some sort of crusade to persuade people of the rightness of his position. His position sucks. There is no “rightness” to be found. And those who think radically pro-abortion positions are right, don’t need any persuasion. The rest of us would really just rather not hear about it.
April 10th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Sir, once again you mislead. Do you do it on purpose? Nowhere in my earlier response did I either say, imply, or “pretend” that “Rudy is doing as well as he was a month ago”. What I said was that “Rudy’s lead over the pack has settled out at double digits, even after the Thompson boomlet has been factored in, with four other candidates, two of whom are not actually running, fighting it out for second place at somewhere between 10 and 19 points behind”. With respect to the Rasmussen Polls, upon which you chose to opine, that is a completely accurate assessment of the facts on the ground, as they stand today, not a month ago.
Now, since you brought it up, let’s look at the actual Rasmussen Polls for the last three months:
DATE: RUDY: McCAIN: THOMPSON: ROMNEY:
04/10 27% 16% 14% 12%
04/03 26% 16% 14% 08%
03/27 35% 15% x 08%
03/20 33% 15% x 10%
03/13 37% 16% x 10%
03/06 34% 19% x 09%
02/27 33% 17% x 10%
02/20 33% 19% x 08%
02/14 32% 18% x 08%
02/06 27% 19% x 09%
01/29 29% 19% x 08%
01/23 30% 22% x 10%
01/18 28% 20% x 08%
The fact is that Rudy today has a bigger lead in the Rasmussen Poll than he had two months ago on 02/6 (8%) and three months ago on 01/18 (8%). As for “a moth ago” your chosen point of reference on 03/06, Rudy had a 15 point lead (34%-19%), only four points greater than the lead he enjoys today. That is AFTER the Thompson boomlet has been factored in for two consecutive weekly Rasmussen polls, and AFTER the soi disant drop in “favorability” to which you cite to justify what you “think”. I suggest, sir, that it is indeed you who “turn a blind eye to voters’ opinions of the man”.