The Candidates
The bottom line (parentheses are from the last poll in February):
Giuliani - 33% (44)
McCain - 21% (21)
Romney - 9% (4)
F Thompson - 9% (-)
Gingrich - 6% (15)
T Thompson - 2% (2)
Everyone else - 1%
Undecided - 6%
If Gingrich does not run:
Giuliani - 35% (53)
McCain - 22% (23)
Romney - 10% (5)
F Thompson - 10% (-)
Gilmore - 2% (1)
T Thompson - 2% (2)
Everyone else - 1%
The poll was of 1141 adults, not likely or even registered voters, so take it for what it’s worth.
April 19th, 2007 at 1:39 am
Having Thompson in the race would be more of a boon than bane for Romney. Thompson leeches support from Giuliani and Gingrich while Romney’s base is unaffected. Romney is lining up the key early states and also is positioning for a 2/5 cleanup. California being his highest contributing state bodes well for him picking up lots of districts there. As for Thompson with no viable organization, he is really running for Veep Shortlist in my opinion.
April 19th, 2007 at 1:46 am
“California being his highest contributing state bodes well for him picking up lots of districts there.”
Isn’t that normal for most?
April 19th, 2007 at 1:47 am
Why is Gilmore at 2%, and Brownback is nowhere? I’d have thought it would be the other way around…
April 19th, 2007 at 2:02 am
Bark. . .I don’t see Fred Thompson, a guy with a lucrative acting career who hates campaigning more than anything, giving it all up to run for Vice President. But I could be wrong.
April 19th, 2007 at 2:05 am
Tommy Thompson would though…
April 19th, 2007 at 2:19 am
Giuliani - 35% (53)
McCain - 22% (23)
Rudy drops 18% in two months. I’ve been saying for a long time that Rudy’s immediate post-announcement numbers were illusionary, but even I didn’t expect them to come crashing down this fast.
April 19th, 2007 at 2:21 am
JayPe,
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/2008_EG_FINANCES.html
Looking at the chart, the only other person who had California as their highest tally was Obama. Also, if you look by zipcodes, you will notice that the Democrats do best in LA and SF counties, whereas Romney leads fundraising in the more conservative Southern California area.
Though California does not generalize too easily. One can find the most liberal and conservative counties right next to eachother. I’ve lived in the Bay Area during the Prop 22 amendment and SF was surrounded by counties that voted Yes on it. California is more than just a fund-raising state and will provo crucial to any candidate. Hopefully, with the endorsement of Gov. Schwarzenegger and extremely targeted marketing, we can tip the state towards red during the next election.
April 19th, 2007 at 2:28 am
LJ, that’s the main thing I noticed about this poll, too. That’s a huge drop, and it’s not all due to F Thompson in the race who would take at most about half of that drop from Rudy.
April 19th, 2007 at 3:15 am
It does show Fred Thompson that he shoudl delay entering for as long as possible. The post-entering drop is quite something, as the media eye you with more scrutiny…
April 19th, 2007 at 7:10 am
bark, LJ, you are both in dreamland. Ofcourse Rudy’s numbers would fall so early, its natural from being so high. People still dont trust John McCain and THEY NEVER WILL. And Romney, well, he is no threat.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:36 am
http://www.bloggernews.net/16114
McCAin Romney, & Clinton’s Negatives
This month’s ABC News/Washington Post poll revealed some interesting voter impressions about the very early stages of the 2008 presidential campaign. The biggest story in candidate polling continues to be the decline in support for Republican Sen. John McCain. In May of 2006, 28% of those surveyed said that they definitely would not back McCain for president in 2006. Less than a year later, that number has risen to 47%. Twenty five percent of Republicans surveyed said that they definitely would not support McCain in 2008. As bad as McCain is faring, Mitt Romney’s numbers are even worse. Fifty four percent of Americans say that they definitely would not vote for him. Thirty three percent of Republicans said that they definitely will not support him in ‘08. Forty percent of Americans also say that they won’t vote for Rudy Giuliani
On the Democratic side 45% of Americans say they definitely won’t support Sen. Hillary Clinton, but only 15% of Democrats say that they definitely will not be supporting her in 2008. Thirty six and thirty five percent respectively said that they would definitely not be supporting Obama and Edwards. For those who think that Hillary Clinton will do well with Independents, this poll holds some discouraging news. Fifty one percent of those surveyed said that they definitely would not vote for her in 2008. Only Mitt Romney had a worse number at 53%. However, Clinton leads all candidates in both parties with 27% of respondents who said that they will definitely vote for her in 2008. Obama and Edwards are second and third on the list with 20% and 18% respectively, and Giuliani is the top Republican with 17% definite support.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:29 am
Here’s the article about the rejection spikes from ABC news:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3053012&page=1
April 19th, 2007 at 8:33 am
This is not good for either. What can they do to improve this? This needs to be worked on considering that either one of them might be our nominee, and if their negatives are around Hillary’s, we’re in deep trouble as a party. Like I have said, I’m for Fred, but if he doesn’t win, I still will support the Republican nominee, and this is not good.
“It’s worse still for former Republican Gov. Mitt Romney; a majority of Americans, 54 percent, say they definitely wouldn’t vote for him, including a third of Republicans a particularly broad level of rejection within his own party.
Indeed McCain and Romney’s negatives on this measure match or exceed those of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., whose polarized political profile has been well documented. Forty-five percent of adults say they definitely wouldn’t vote for her, about the same as last May.”
-from the above article
April 19th, 2007 at 9:22 am
Tommy, how seriously can you take this poll?
Also from the same article. It seems like a knee-jerk reaction. In absence of info, flip a coin–about half will vote for Romney or McCain, and about half won’t. Sounds reasonable to me, and this will change as the campaigns run through the fall.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:31 am
I haven’t read the whole poll. If those are the numbers, fair enough. Just what I picked up and it looked bad. I’m not knocking them, but it still doesn’t look good.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:52 am
Any chance we could get a post about Fred Thompson’s positions on issues? Does anybody know his positions? It seems like a lot of blind excitement with no particulars. Maybe voters would have similar negative feeliings about Thompson if anyone had any idea what he stood for, he seems to be using Obama’s(and Bill Clintons) tactic of avoiding any controversial stand.
April 19th, 2007 at 11:46 am
McCain has stablize the question is can he start to inch back up.
April 19th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Dave M: They’ve been posted on here at least 10 times.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:06 pm
I was assuming that Fred Thompson would soak up conservatives critical for Romney’s campaign (which is still probably true), but it looks like Thompson is hurting Rudy more than Romney. Of course, saying that you support public funding of abortion isn’t a good way to boost your poll numbers in a republican primary either.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:44 pm
That’s quite a nosedive for Giuliani, I’m guessing due to his abortion flaps. I think its very likely that this poll and the other polls showing the same type of support bleed will lead those who had been on his bandwagon due to the “electability” argument to jump ship as well. The Reagan Library debate may propel someone new to the frontrunner position.