April 19, 2007
Show Me the Money!
There’s been several dozen articles in local media outlets in the past three or four days regarding the candidates’ fundraising totals – because the FEC reports released on Sunday broke the money down by state. So instead of having to read from the local NH paper that Romney raised the most in that state or the local NV paper that Rudy raised the most there, I have sorted through the FEC reports and compiled all the data for you. I know, you can thank me later. 
I’ll put the early primary states above the fold, and if you’re really nerdy, like I am, you can find much more information below the fold. If a candidate’s name isn’t listed, they didn’t raise anything from that particular state. And remember, these numbers may or may not tell us anything – they do not reflect the current state of the race; they are simply one ingredient with which to gauge the support of the candidates in various states. (If you want numbers from other specific states than these 5, let me know and I’ll put them in the comments section.)
Iowa
Romney outraised all other candidates combined in this state:
Romney – $40,750
McCain – $8,767
Giuliani – $8,550
T Thompson – $4,800
Brownback – $3,900
Hunter – $2,100
Paul – $450
Tancredo – $215
Nevada
Giuliani outraised all other candidates combined in NV:
Giuliani – $526,375
Romney – $397,235
McCain – $99,500
Paul – $5,500
Tancredo – $5,050
Brownback – $3,000
T Thompson – $1,000
Hunter – $600
Huckabee – $500
New Hampshire
Romney again outraised all other candidates combined in NH:
Romney – $126,450
Paul – $16,950
McCain – $13,732
Giuliani – $13,300
Hunter – $12,900
Tancredo – $6,700
T Thompson – $2,300
Brownback – $1,950
Huckabee – $1,375
Gilmore – $1,000
South Carolina
Romney – $174,525
McCain – $127,565
Giuliani – $120,650
Hunter – $18,000
Brownback – $7,612
Paul – $2,083
Huckabee – $1,350
Tancredo – $850
Florida
A close one in the Sunshine State:
Romney – $1,007,080
McCain – $999,456
Giuliani – $822,950
Paul – $39,915
Brownback – $35,194
Tancredo – $8,965
Hunter – $8,850
T Thompson – $7,600
Huckabee – $5,400
Top Fundraiser in Each State
Brownback raised the most in Kansas, as did Huckabee in Arkansas. McCain was the top money man in 7 states (AZ, DC, IL, MS, NC, ND, and VA). Giuliani was tops in 11 states (DE, HI, IN, MN, NJ, NV, NY, OK, PA, TX, and WV). Romney took the other 30 states.
Top States By Percentage of Total Money Raised
Romney
CA – 17.37%
UT – 13.94%
MA – 11.72%
TX – 5.37%
NY – 5.34%
McCain
CA – 15.37%
NY – 11.74%
AZ – 11.46%
TX – 9.15%
FL – 9.08%
Giuliani
NY – 22.32%
CA – 18.00%
TX – 16.16%
NJ – 6.87%
FL – 6.06%
Brownback
KS – 18.53%
CA – 10.26%
PA – 7.26%
NY – 7.22%
FL – 7.00%
Random Facts
Only Romney, McCain, and Giuliani raised money from all 50 states plus DC. Brownback came closest to them with 46. Gilmore wins the award for least number of states with only 14. Ron Paul surprised with money from 44 states.
Of the 30 states Romney topped in total dollars, he raised more than all the rest of the candidates combined in 21 of them: CO, GA, IA, ID, KY, LA, MA, ME, MI, MO, NH, NM, OH, OR, RI, SD, TN, UT, VT, WA, and WY. Giuliani managed to do the same in 6 of his 11 states: IN, NJ, NV, NY, OK, and WV. McCain did so in 2 of his 7: AZ and MS.
The highest percentage of money from one state award goes to Tommy Thompson, who raised 70% of his funds from WI. Gilmore was next with 61% of his money coming from VA, and Huckabee raised over 52% of his from Arkansas.
http://race42008.com/2007/04/19/show-me-the-money/trackback/
April 19th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Wow. Thanks for the time you put into the research for this post HeavyM. I appreciate it.
April 19th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
Awesome post, HeavyM. Speaking of money, I don’t recall it being mentioned on this site the degree to which the candidates have reached the limit of their fundraising from individual contributors.
The percentages listed below (HT Jeff Fuller) are the amount of money each candidate raised in chunks of $2300…higher numbers mean candidates will have to branch out and find new donors to a greater degree:
Tancredo — 79%
Clinton — 74%
Giuliani — 61%
Huckabee — 57%
T. Thompson — 56%
Obama — 49%
Romney — 48%
Edwards — 47%
McCain — 43%
Brownback — 11%
April 19th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Thanks for the research. What about Michigan?
April 19th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Special delivery for dskinner -
Michigan
Romney – $1,043,060
McCain – $327,450
Giuliani – $48,750
Brownback – $14,351
Tancredo – $11,400
Hunter – $5,850
Paul – $5,550
Gilmore – $2,100
Huckabee – $500
April 19th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Heavy M,
Many thanks for the info.
Can you please also post the fundraising figures from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Texas?
Thanks again…
April 19th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
One more I forgot to request…California.
Thanks!
April 19th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
Great post, HeavyM, very informative. Speaking of money, I don’t recall it being mentioned on this site the degree to which the candidates have reached the limit of their fundraising from individual contributors.
The percentages listed below (HT Jeff Fuller) are the amount of money each candidate raised in chunks of $2300…higher numbers mean candidates will have to branch out and find new donors to a greater degree:
Tancredo — 79%
Clinton — 74%
Giuliani — 61%
Huckabee — 57%
T. Thompson — 56%
Obama — 49%
Romney — 48%
Edwards — 47%
McCain — 43%
Brownback — 11%
April 19th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
NY:
Giuliani – $3,033,231
McCain – $1,292,390
Romney – $1,065,792
Brownback – $36,300
Tancredo – $8,540
Huckabee – $3,150
Paul – $2,760
Gilmore – $2,300
Hunter – $1,920
NJ:
Giuliani – $933,976
McCain – $506,596
Romney – $164,050
Brownback – $16,475
Paul – $13,400
Hunter – $4,350
Gilmore – $4,200
T Thompson – $500
Huckabee – $250
PA:
Giuliani – $353,700
McCain – $239,468
Romney – $116,750
Brownback – $36,500
Paul – $12,550
Hunter – $5,750
Tancredo – $2,675
Huckabee – $500
TX:
Giuliani – $2,195,500
Romney – $1,070,550
McCain – $1,007,100
Paul – $63,676
Huckabee – $61,450
Hunter – $49,400
Tancredo – $26,470
Brownback – $13,225
Gilmore – $2,300
There ya go!
April 19th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
NY:
Giuliani – $3,033,231
McCain – $1,292,390
Romney – $1,065,792
Brownback – $36,300
Tancredo – $8,540
Huckabee – $3,150
Paul – $2,760
Gilmore – $2,300
Hunter – $1,920
NJ:
Giuliani – $933,976
McCain – $506,596
Romney – $164,050
Brownback – $16,475
Paul – $13,400
Hunter – $4,350
Gilmore – $4,200
T Thompson – $500
Huckabee – $250
PA:
Giuliani – $353,700
McCain – $239,468
Romney – $116,750
Brownback – $36,500
Paul – $12,550
Hunter – $5,750
Tancredo – $2,675
Huckabee – $500
TX:
Giuliani – $2,195,500
Romney – $1,070,550
McCain – $1,007,100
Paul – $63,676
Huckabee – $61,450
Hunter – $49,400
Tancredo – $26,470
Brownback – $13,225
Gilmore – $2,300
There you go!
April 19th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Thanks. Looking at this you wonder if Romney’s campaign has fund-raising prowess or just a high number of deep pocketed contributers or perhaps both.
The broad regional fund-raising indicates that Romney’s organization has staying power.
He ought to be a factor in the nomination with an ability to fight (if he has to) after losing early states.
The fund-raising situation McCain is in: hard to see why the presumptive nominee (in 2006) should have such poor fund raising in the 1st quarter of 2007.
April 19th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Shouldn’t there be 51 if DC is included separately?
April 19th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
econ grad stud: Looking at this you wonder if Romney’s campaign has fund-raising prowess or just a high number of deep pocketed contributers or perhaps both.
I read a report detailing the amount of support the various candidates got from donors giving $2300. As a percentage of their total fundraising, Giuliani had 61%, Romney had 48%, and McCain had 43%.
It seems like not only is Romney leading the field in fundraising, but he is far less reliant on deep-pocketed donors than is his closest competitor (Giuliani) in the money race.
April 19th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
I think if Mitt repeats this in the 2nd quarter his fund-raising is going to have interesting effects on the race. It will probably raise the bar so high for funds that probably only 4 or 5 candidates will still be running actual campaigns come September.
Narrowing the field so much before the primary is likely to shift the third tier candidates support in ways that define the race.
April 19th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
If anyone wants more detail on NH contributions, here’s a good article.
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Granite+Status%3a+NH+voters+busy+writing+checks&articleId=6142b46b-8f81-4a03-9e41-2b77fa715543
April 19th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Obviously money doesn’t equal votes, but this does show that Romney has a great organization in place in all the early states and a broad national network built in the later states as well. This supports my theory that Mitt has as good a chance as anyone to win the nomination. I still wouldn’t take him against the field, but by the end of the fall I think he will be equal in a 4-way tie for the GOP nomination.
I think that the war will not be going well by Iowa, NH and SC so people will run away from McCain because of a sure general election loss. Romney will be in the best position to capture those votes because Giuliani and Thompson have no ground game and apparently don’t think they need one. Romney will be able to use all the free publicity of winning early to dominate Feb. 5th and seal the nomination.
April 19th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
NY:
Giuliani – $3,033,231
McCain – $1,292,390
Romney – $1,065,792
Brownback – $36,300
Tancredo – $8,540
Huckabee – $3,150
Paul – $2,760
Gilmore – $2,300
Hunter – $1,920
April 19th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
NJ:
Giuliani – $933,976
McCain – $506,596
Romney – $164,050
Brownback- – $16,475
Paul – $13,400
Hunter – $4,350
Gilmore – $4,200
Tancredo – $2,300
T Thompson – $500
Huckabee – $250
April 19th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
PA:
Giuliani – $353,700
McCain – $293,468
Romney – $116,750
Brownback – $36,500
Paul – $12,550
Hunter – $5,750
Tancredo – $2,675
Huckabee – $500
April 19th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
TX:
Giuliani – $2,195,500
Romney – $1,070,550
McCain – $1,007,100
Paul – $63,676
Huckabee – $61,450
Hunter – $49,400
Tancredo – $26,470
Brownback – $13,225
Gilmore – $2,300
April 19th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
CA:
Romney – $3,465,422
Giuliani – $2,445,558
McCain – $1,691,216
Hunter – $223,550
Tancredo – $60,365
Paul – $55,300
Brownback – $51,580
Huckabee – $25,050
T Thompson – $1,000
Gilmore – $500
April 19th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
One word: PHIL GRAMM
Nope, sorry, two words: STEVE FORBES
April 19th, 2007 at 4:13 pm
heh…two more words: sour grapes.
April 19th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
I have an image in my head of Vinnie from Jersey picking up the phone, calling Mike Huckabee in his office and yelling ‘Hey Mikey Huckster…WTF is wrong with you? When I gave ya the $250 and warned you I better not be the only one buying you off, I was just bustin’ your chops! No more f-ing around…I want my $250 back NOW or my boys are gonna be paying you a visit!
April 19th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Argo, and he’s pronouncing “250″ as two-fitty, right?
April 19th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Thanks for putting this together!
April 19th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
For the record that was 4 words. You are way off. Almost all of Gramm’s money was from TX and Forbes self-financed.
April 19th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
What’s scary, is that we’re supposedly getting killed in FL for fundraising by the dems
April 19th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/pres_stateAll.asp?cycle=2008
Not to completely take away HeavyM’s steam…great work!
I just thought that site might be useful to some.
April 19th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Nusrat, Thanks..
If no one else has noticed. We’re getting HAMMERED in the south.
April 19th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/states.asp?cycle=2008
That page elucidates what tommy is getting at.
Look at those four states down there!! Blue!
And Indiana? Indiana should be a gimme.
April 19th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
This is not good at all. I’m going to add up these numbers, be back in a few minutes.
April 19th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Nusrat, #24: doh! That would have been nice to have…
April 19th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Okay: We are officially getting SLAUGHTERED IN THE SOUTH.
I’ll put up the numbers in a second
April 19th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Can’t wait to see ‘em.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Fundraising Totals for the South
(VA, MO, AR, AL, TN, NC, SC, GA, OK, TX, FL, KY, LA, MS)
Total Party:
Democrat- $13,905,221
Republican- $11,140623
Nominees:
John Edwards- $5403991
Hillary Clinton- $4646351
Barak Obama- $3854879
Mitt Romney- $3858594
Rudy Giuliani- $3762123
John McCain- $3519906
April 19th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
Wow, that’s pretty bad (for the south)
The Republicans should at least have a 60-40 stranglehold on the money in the south.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
We have one every one of those states for the last 2 elections.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
and it’s not just in one or two states. The are outraising across the board. Even in the states we won, the Dems are competitive. We are getting killed in quite a few, including FL.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Note: I only counted the top 3. Adding Huckabee would bring us a little closer, but no within a million.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
What’s your suggestion, Tommy? Should we all unite around the guy leading the fundraising in the south, or throw them all out and go for a candidate who has zero money?
April 19th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Hold up Murphy. This has nothing to do with FDT. I’m talking about the candidates running. Regardless of whether he gets in or not, this is not a good sign.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Not every comment I’ve made on this site has to do with Thompson. Most would agree.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
HeavyM and Nusrat,
One of your sources seems to be incorrect. The fundraising totals for most states that I looked at had differences between HeavyM’s source and Nusrat’s “opensecrets” webpage. Using Iowa as an example:
HeavyM:
Romney – $174,525
McCain – $127,565
Giuliani – $120,650
Nusrat:
Romney – $163,325
McCain – $122,565
Giuliani – $114,450
Not drastic…but not exactly something that should be up for debate, either.
April 19th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
…typo…in my #39 post I was using South Carolina as an example…
April 19th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Heavy’s are probably up to date, where opensecrets is probably first quarter only. Not positive though.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
The open secrets website shows less money for Romney in AZ than the NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/2008_EG_FINANCES.html
Open secrets shows a total of $545,860 for Romney in AZ and NY Times shows $659,460 for Romney in AZ. In Utah open secrets underrepresents Romney by over $400,000 in Utah as well. I haven’t checked other candidates or other states, but it sounds like one of the two sources isn’t very accurate.
As far as this translating into southern electoral votes for the Dems, I doubt it very much.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
Giuliani Reports Skyscraping Early Money Total for White House Bid
By Greg Giroux, CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has led the long list of 2008 Republican presidential contenders in early preference polls and his perceived position as the front-runner, at least for now, was not contradicted by his recent campaign finance report, which shows he has already built a sizable treasury.
Giuliani’s campaign reported total first-quarter receipts of $16.6 million, which included a $1.85 million transfer from the presidential “exploratory” committee he established last November.
With total receipts of $18 million for his campaign to date, Giuliani leads all but three of the current crop of White House hopefuls Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, and Republican Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor in overall campaign receipts.
Giuliani ended the quarter with $11.9 million left to spend. All but about $1.1 million of Giuliani’s funds were raised for the nominating campaign, with the rest for possible use in the general election should he win the nomination.
Giuliani’s report includes numerous donations that highlight his ties to New York, the nation’s most populous city, which Giuliani headed as mayor from 1993 through 2001.
As an example, Giuliani received contributions from about 30 employees of Lehman Brothers, the large financial services firm that is headquartered in New York.
Giuliani is a longtime fan of baseball’s New York Yankees, who happened to win four World Series titles during his eight years as mayor. Several team executives, including principal owner George Steinbrenner, gave to Giuliani’s presidential campaign.
This profile of Giuliani’s report is the latest in a CQPolitics.com series that is analyzing the first-quarter campaign finance filings of all 19 Democratic and Republican candidates.
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani
Receipts, Jan. 1 to March 31: $16.6 million
Receipts to date: $18 million
Expenditures, Jan. 1 to March 31: $5.7 million
Expenditures to date: $6.1 million
Cash-on-hand, March 31: $11.9 million
Debts, March 31: $89,000
Notable individual donors (who are allowed to contribute $2,300 to a candidate for a primary campaign and $2,300 for a general election campaign)
John F. Antioco, chairman and chief executive officer of Blockbuster: $2,300
Richard D. Beckman, president of Conde Nast Media Group: $2,300
Brian Cashman, general manager of the New York Yankees baseball team: $2,300
Miguel Estrada, a partner at the firm Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher and an unsuccessful nominee for a federal judgeship in 2003: $2,300
Alan D. Feld, a senior executive partner at the firm Akin Gump: $2,300
John Grant, professional staff member for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee: $250
Keith Hernandez, sports broadcaster and a former professional baseball player for the St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Cleveland Indians: $1,000
Michael D. Hess, a founding partner and senior managing director of Giuliani Partners LLC and Giuliani’s former corporation counsel during his mayoral tenure: $4,600
John O’Hurley, actor: $4,600
Susan Molinari, chairman and chief executive officer of The Washington Group and a former House member from New York (1990-97): $1,900 (Molinari also gave Giuliani’s campaign $2,100 in late 2006, bringing her contributions to $4,000)
Theodore B. Olson, partner at Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher and a former U.S. solicitor general: $2,500 (Olson also gave Giuliani’s campaign $2,100 in late 2006, bringing his contributions to the maximum of $4,600)
Adam Sandler, actor: $2,100
Charles R. Schwab, chairman and chief executive officer of Charles Schwab Co.: $2,300
Ben Stein, an author and actor who served as an aide to presidents Richard M. Nixon and Gerald Ford: $750
George Steinbrenner, principal owner of the New York Yankees: $4,600
Chad Sweet, chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security: $4,600
James S. Turley, chairman and chief executive officer of Ernst & Young: $2,100
Candidate committees and political action committees (PACs)
One of Giuliani’s strongest supporters in Congress is California Republican Rep. David Dreier, who donated $2,300 through his House campaign committee and another $5,000 through another political committee, American Success PAC.
Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Charlie Dent, who represents the 15th District in and around Allentown and Bethlehem, donated $2,300 through his political committee, Dedicated to Establishing National Teamwork PAC, which forms an acronym of the congressman’s last name.
Among his political supporters at a more grassroots level is West Virginia state Sen. Vic Sprouse, whose campaign committee gave Giuliani’s campaign a $1,000 contribution.
http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2007/04/19/cq_2594.html?pagewanted=print
April 19th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
I just checked and Open secrets underestimates Romney in FL by $100,000, Giuliani by almost $150,000, and McCain by $20,000. Hillary is the same on both, Obama lower on Open Secrets but only by about $3000 and Edwards is also the same on both.
I don’t know what the deal is with open secrets, maybe the not so open secret is misrepresentation of fact and/or the liberal bias. I could understand if it was off for both parties because it would mean the money was somehow measured differently. Since it is only different for Republicans and significantly lower I am going to believe the NY Times site. If the NY Times is more accurate I bet the money difference between parties disappears or the GOP actually raised more.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
dskinner:
They might not sweep the south. But don’t underestimate Edwards. People down here really like him. Hillary could conceivably pick off a few, and going by recent elections and how we are in a close race, we can’t afford any letdowns in any states we carried before.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
I agree completely, we need a southerner on the ticket. In my mind the VP slot is best for the southerner because we don’t need as strong of an impact in the South. We need a big impact elsewhere to turn so blue states red and that is why I think that either Romney or Giuliani with a southern VP has the best chance to win.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I just checked the NYtimes, and it goes by regions, as opposed to states. Do you have the links to the states?
April 19th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Edwards has the momentum right now, and if he’s on the ticket, we’re in big trouble.
April 19th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
as president
April 19th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Great work HeavyM, supurb detailed analysis!
April 19th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
I agree, Edwards is potentially the most dangerous candidate but he didn’t even give his home state to the ticket in ‘04. I am more worried about Edwards locking up the midwest because of his populist message and picking off one or two southern states, none of which the GOP can afford to lose. Also he will be very vulnerable to attack since he hasn’t accomplished anything other than frivilously putting all the Obstetricians in NC out of business.
I know NY times has it by regions, but other than in the small NE states and the DC area it is by regions within states so I added up each of the regions within the states to get the total for the state.
I think that if it were inaccurate somehow because the regions encompassed more than one state then in would be inaccurate for the dems also.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
The news when figures came out was Romney’s base in Utah, but its clear that his fundraissing is much wider than that. Very impressive numbers by Romney.
A key stat to me is the proportion raised in CA/NY – liberal states with pockets of dough that are unlikely to go red in 2008 (unless Giuliani takes on a Dem who says he hates NY).
Giuliani – 40.3%
McCain – 27.1%
Romney – 22.7%
Brownback – 17.5%
I’m going to read far too much into those numbers, but what that implies is that Brownback is the country-boy conservative favourite, while Giuliani & McCain are more popular with urban city Republicans. It also shows Giuliani’s dependence on proving (i.e. polls) that he can beat a Dem candidate in NY &/or California. If he can’t win his base, which he is quite financially dependent on…?
April 19th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Take it to the bank, Edwards could carry TN, KY, NC, and possibly FL and SC if he’s nominated. He got a heros welcome here, while on the same day, nobody even knew McCain was here. A lot of people in the south will vote for one of their own, unless they completely alienate them like Gore did to us here in TN in 2000. Remember, Clinton carried quite a few states both times.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
I agree, Edwards can carry those states and VA too. If the GOP ticket didn’t include a Southerner I think an Edwards ticket would win those states. As long as the GOP can put a well-liked Southerner on the ticket like Thompson or Barbour from Mississippi then I think the GOP will hold the south. I think Romney could hold all those states (by much closer margins than Bush).
Giuliani is another story. If he wins because the conservatives split among Romney, Thompson and McCain then he will lose the South. If, however, he can convince conservatives to vote for him in the primary I think they will come out for him in the general election as well. Especially when 527s run commercials about the sharp left turn Edwards has taken on everything, especially abortion.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
I’m not sure about Romney, he’s doing well in SC right now, but heneeds to define himself,and he has to show that he’s anti-gun control, pro-life, or they will go Edwards, who would be essientally the same. I think McCain could a few. Actually, no I don’t. I think if Edwards runs, we’re in real trouble. I don’t see Giuliani carrying the south right now. NOT SAYING THIS TO ANGER ANYBODY READING. Just it is how it will play out if things stay the same. Good old boys will vote for good old boys every time. That’s just the way things are, so Romney needs to pull a Bush in 2000, and essentially reinvent himself without goofing it up like the mouse hunting or whatever that was about.
April 19th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
It is true that Romney has work left to do to win the votes of southern conservatives. I think his success in SC shows that if he campaigns he is capable of getting significant numbers of southern conservatives to support him.
As far as Edwards, I don’t think he will win and he won’t be the VP. If by some change of course he did win, he has sprinted left so fast that I don’t think he can get back to the center in the general. Southern Democrats that win are pro-life or at least against PBA. They are also anti-gun control.
Edwards has southern potential but when one guy says “I won’t take your guns, I won’t take your money and abortion is wrong”, and the other guy says “give me your guns, you should pay for your neighbors healthcare and I think women have the right to kill their babies”, a southern accent won’t save Edwards. Especially when one of their good old boys is running around saying this Romney guy is for real, vote for us.
April 19th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Edwards has southern potential but when one guy says “I won’t take your guns, I won’t take your money and abortion is wrong”, and the other guy says “give me your guns, you should pay for your neighbors healthcare and I think women have the right to kill their babies”, a southern accent won’t save Edwards. Especially when one of their good old boys is running around saying this Romney guy is for real, vote for us.
That was really good writing. Thank you for making me laugh.
Hava
http://mittforpresident.wordpress.com/
April 19th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
I think you’re right on your last point. But…. If Romney doesn’t CONVINCE them of his beliefs, they won’t vote for him. Remember, Clinton carried the south twice. Everday working class southerners are also very wary of elites, including one of their own. I live in Chattanooga, and when Corker left the mayoral office to run for senator, the 6 or 7 elite families handpicked his successors. And guess what, that candidate got beat by a liberal democrat. Race has always defined the south to the rest of the nation…. but today, the major segregation down here is class (wealth). The old story of the haves and the have-nots. Southerners will vote for the local boy who’s done good everytime than the guy who was born rich. That’s why Romney HAS to appeal to the working class south, which is the poorest region in the country. I’m not against Romney, but I do have my doubts that a wealthy businessman from Kennedy’s state can carry the south without doing some serious campaigning down here.
April 19th, 2007 at 10:41 pm
First national impressions count for a lot (a la Giuliani), and people are fmiliar with Edwards ‘04 persona, which was much more moderate. He would be able to tack in quite easily, as thats the image of him people are familiar with…
April 19th, 2007 at 11:34 pm
National impressions count a lot now, but there are 8 months of Giuliani being forced to tell people that he is pro-choice and 8 months for his opponents to run ads about his “government should pay for abortions” quote. He really can’t combat that one with a response of “I changed my mind” like Romney and Thompson can say about their previous positions.
As for Edwards it won’t take too many 527 ads for everyone to know he changed his mind. There will be plenty of quotes to that effect and plenty of time for the 527s to hit the South over the head those quotes.
April 20th, 2007 at 3:06 am
the numbers for Giuliani in Nevada count dollars that are for the General. You can see that many of the husband and wives are both in for $4600.
April 20th, 2007 at 10:36 am
527?
April 21st, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Thanks for putting this together. This provides another case-in-point regarding MSM media bias–and their tendancy to craft a story around a preconceived position (i.e., Mitt’s fundraising success being attributable to Utah and Wall Street). If in fact Romney has raised more money in 30 states than his opponents (and more than all other candidates combined in 21 states), the premise of these articles is destroyed. I would like to stuff this information is stuffed down the throats of the MSM.