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With the Ames Straw Poll version 2007 coming up in roughly 100 days, now is as good of time as ever to look at what this massive political event is, what it means, and what it takes to win it.
History of the Poll
The Ames Straw Poll began in 1979 and has continued every year preceding a competitive election (1987, 1995, and 1999) for a total of four times. The upcoming poll on August 11, 2007, therefore will be the fifth Ames Straw Poll held.
Even though the poll dates back nearly three decades, it was only in 1999 that it began to take on the significance it has now. Until that most recent straw poll, charges of cheating ran rampant at the event (voters would have their hands stamped, run into the bathroom to wash the ink off, and go vote again), meaning that no one took the results too seriously. In 1999, the Iowa GOP officials began using indelible ink that couldn’t be washed off as well as posting voting monitors at the voting areas and in all the bathrooms to ensure more reliable results.
At the last straw poll, George W Bush won with 31% of the vote. He would, of course, go on to win the nomination, but such foretelling is not a historical definite at the event. For instance, Bush 41 won the first straw poll in 1979 and Reagan ended up with the nomination, and in 1987 Pat Robertson won the contest but lost the nomination to Bush. Now that the voting is fairer and more reliable, though, some people argue that the results are a more significant barometer of a candidate’s success.
What it Means and How to Win
It’s the first real test of candidates on two different levels: organization and support. A win in Ames generally means you’ve succeeded in both of those arenas. And it also means you’ve succeeded in raising extravagant amounts of cash prior to the event.
Consider these statistics: Dubya spent $825,000 on the event in 1999 and walked away with first place. Steve Forbes spent over $2 million for his second place finish. What did they spend the money on?
A better question might be what didn’t they spend the money on. Tickets to the event in 1999 were $25 apiece, which all the campaigns gladly paid for in return for a vote. Parking cost money, which again, the campaigns paid for – if you even drove your own vehicle and didn’t take one of the free buses the campaigns chartered. Each campaign had tents outside the main hall for which they paid money – increasing in price the closer to the hall the tent space was (the apex being Bush’s tent, which was closest to the hall and cost him $63,000). At each tent, the campaigns offered food and drinks as well as live music from famous musicians, all free. Steve Forbes even hosted a carnival of sorts, complete with children’s rides that he rented and set up. All in the quest to attract voters.
Truth be told, the real winner of the Ames Straw Poll is the Iowa GOP which hosts the event as its annual fundraiser.
This should be instructive when thinking about how to win the poll now, in 2007. If Bush spent nearly a million dollars and Forbes nearly two million eight years ago, one can only imagine how much the campaigns will spend on the event this year. That does not bode well for poorly funded campaigns such as Tommy Huckback, Gilmore, Paul, or Tancredo. And it says something to the chances of a late-comer such as Fred Thompson succeeding in such an environment.
Of course, there are always going to be the die hards that will pay their own tickets, drive their own cars, vote, and go home all without being tied to a campaign, but the vast majority of the voters there will be there thanks to candidates’ generosity.
But, as mentioned above, organization is only one half of the coin. You can’t very well pay for people’s tickets to the event if you can’t find people who support you enough to go in the first place and sit through hours of speeches and give up their entire Saturday just to throw your name in a box – and for a poll, nonetheless, not even a real election. This is where all the grassroots campaigning leading up to the event pays off. You’ve gotta have a voter base to turnout in the first place before you can start paying for tickets and bus rides and the like.
So it takes both to emerge victorious in Ames: support from people who want to go and vote for you, and the organization to get more of them there than your opponents can. And in 1999, the results did mean something – after disappointing finishes at Ames, Alexander and Quayle both dropped out of the race; after his first place showing, Bush’s frontrunner status was cemented (at least until McCain got in the race a month later).
Roughly a hundred days from now, we will watch the hoopla and extravagance with great excitement and great anticipation, because the Ames Straw Poll is the first real test of the candidates’ strength in this campaign.
April 26th, 2007 at 6:48 am
Ames will narrow down the field of serious candidates. The dynamic we’re seeing at this time doesn’t closely match any GOP primary in recent history. We have a front-runner that has no claim to hierarchical support (not a President, VP or 2nd place finisher in a past primary). We have a party who is loyal to the current President but wants a candidate who is different.
In Iowa we’ll see the first indications of what such an odd primary may be like.
April 26th, 2007 at 8:01 am
egs is right: This should be a big indicator of who’s really on top for the GOP. With the track record of the straw poll, it is definitely a political event that must be watched closely.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
April 26th, 2007 at 8:23 am
Texas Primary Poll:
http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/DN-txgop_26tex.ART.State.Edition1.43b3382.html
April 26th, 2007 at 9:28 am
Does one have to live in Iowa to vote in the Ames Straw Poll?
April 26th, 2007 at 10:22 am
Marksal,
Yes, although that was another rule that was just changed recently to increase the validity of the event. Prior to 1999, campaigns could bus people in from anywhere they wanted to. Costs were usually prohibitive, obviously, so not a lot of out-of-staters came, but they were definitely still there.
Now, you must be an Iowa resident in order to participate in the carnival that is the Ames Straw Poll.
April 26th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Thanks for the info, HeavyM!
April 26th, 2007 at 11:54 am
Yeah, did they put in the “Dole Rule” after he bus in after of Kanasa to win?
April 26th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Will be nice to see Sam Brownback win the Ames straw poll
April 26th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
This is baloney. The Ames Straw poll won’t decide the nomination, Feb 5 will. Quit letting political activists and inside the beltway experts decide the nomination for us. Those of us who don’t live in Iowa will have the final say.
April 26th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
How much($) to win the Ames straw poll? Mitt wants to know.
April 26th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
KT you seem to be worried that Rudy will do poorly. I agree, you should be worried because he showed that even when speaking at the SC straw polls and trying to do well, he didn’t have the organization to win.
Every candidate does the same things to try to win. All of this money garbage is just that, garbage. Romney knows how the game is played and has shown that he is better at it than his opponents.
Go ahead and start downplaying Ames right now. Rudy will need to lower expectations as much as possible.
April 26th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
KT,
Running the United States of America is a huge job. It is the biggest job on earth. Not only the size in numbers big, but so is the geographic area. The President is running an organization that stretches from Port Barrow, Alaska to Miami, Florida; from Guam to Portland, Maine; from Thule, Greenland to Amundsen/Scott Base, Antartica. It has embassies, representives, and milatary bases all over the world. President has to be able to handle it.
Watching how well a candidate runs his campaign is a fair indicator on how well he will run the Executive Branch. It is an organization of national scope.
Romney has governed a state. He has also ran numerous national and international corporations. He has put together a national campaign organization that is second to none. It is smooth running, innovative, and dynamic.
McCain has very little executive experience. However, he has put together another national campaign organization. Is it running smoothly? Well, it has had it’s problems; but overal seems to be putting right along.
Giuliani ran New York City. He showed he had the executive chops to handle a large organization in terms of number of people. However, New York City is very small geographically. It is far easier to keep tabs on something the size of New York City over something the size of Texas, Nationally, or even Globally.
Giuliani, on the other hand, has almost no national campaign. He keeps only a small, tight staff. Can he go national or even global? So far I see no indication that he can.
When I see someone like Romney and McCain who are comfortable leading large organizations, it makes me far more comfortable thinking of them as President, than when I see a “fly by the seat of your pants” campaigner like Giuliani who seems to be dislike them.
The Presidency is a very strange job for a man who doesn’t like large organizations.
April 26th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
HeavyM, thanks for the great explanation of the Ames poll. I didn’t know the history, so thank you.
marK, I had never thought about it from that point of view, and what you said really makes sense. No matter how good you are, you cannot do everything alone, and you absolutely must know how to run and organize others so they can get the job done. Mitt has been nothing but extremely impressive in that area.
Havs
http://mittforpresident.wordpress.com/
April 26th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
With Mitt we get slaughtered.
April 28th, 2007 at 12:39 am
The 1995 Straw Poll was exciting, with Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied for 1st.
In 1999, George W. Bush didn’t announce for President and decide to compete in the Straw Poll until June or July. Even so, he won handily.