The Candidates
Gallup has released an aggregate of their March-April polling. The breakdown is as follows:
- Rudy Giuliani 35%
- John McCain 20%
- Fred Thompson 11%
- Newt Gingrich 8%
- Mitt Romney 6%
- Tommy Thompson 2%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Sam Brownback 2%
- Mike Huckabee 1%
- George Pataki 1%
- Tom Tancredo 1%
- Jim Gilmore 1%
Gallup has analyzed the numbers in terms of Ideology, Region, Age, Education, Gender, and Religion. Click here for the analysis.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Go Rudy go!
April 30th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Looking at the poll shows some vulnerabilities for Thompson, McCain and Giuliani. In general the sub-group sampling errors are large enough to make it difficult to find any useful information about the candidates with lower support like Romney and Gingrich.
If I have time I may run an ANOVA on the results to see which differences are significant and which ones are probably noise.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Bit of a surprise to this outside observer.
This Romney guy seems to be seriously underperforming relative to the amount of ink he gets, no?
April 30th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
The last time Gallup polled was April 1st with another in late March and one on March 1st. This includes the outlier poll of Romney at 3% which significantly lowers his average. One of there polls didn’t even include Thompson so unless RealClearPolitics is missing a Gallup poll, (I doubt it) this is pretty weak.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
While this may be interesting, it is even less useful than other national polls because it is so dated. It seems like Gallup is trying to get the bang of releasing a poll without actually spending the buck to conduct one.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Sorry I it also includes poll from 2 weeks ago.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Sorry it also includes poll from 2 weeks ago.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
What is most interesting is that the Gallup organization has broken out its three-poll aggregated information into nineteen (19) polling sub-sets, and: (1) Rudy is in first with a comfortable lead — outside any reasonable margin of error — in every single one. (2) John McCain is in a distinct second place, i.e., distinctly behind Rudy and distinctly in front of every other candidate in 18 of 19. Only in the geographic sub-set of the “South” does Fred Thompson lead McCain 15%-14%. (3)Mit Romney finishes 5th in 12 categories; 4th in 1 category; tied for 4th in 4 categories; and tied for 3rd in 2 categories.
My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!
April 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
What is most interesting is that the Gallup organization has broken out its three-poll aggregated information into nineteen (19) polling sub-sets, and: (1) Rudy is in first with a comfortable lead — outside any reasonable margin of error — in every single one. (2) John McCain is in a distinct second place, i.e., distinctly behind Rudy and distinctly in front of every other candidate in 18 of 19. Only in the geographic sub-set of the “South” does Fred Thompson lead McCain 15%-14%. (3)Mitt Romney finishes 5th in 12 categories; 4th in 1 category; tied for 4th in 4 categories; and tied for 3rd in 2 categories.
My ultimate conclusion: Run Rudy Run!
April 30th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
Yeah Tano, Romney at 6%. Talk about momentum!
April 30th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
Of course, the only problem with averages of three polls over a two-month time span is they don’t account for any sort of momentum. Romney’s numbers in these polls was 3%, then 6%, then 9%. Of course with positive momentum it makes his numbers look worse than they are because it factors in previous lower numbers.
Rudy, on the other hand, has negative momentum, so an average of two months’ worth of polls makes his numbers look better than they actually currently are, because it factors in previously higher numbers.
All in all, I agree with dskinner: this is just an attempt by Gallup to get the headlines without spending the $ for a new poll.
April 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Luther–I talked to Chuck Schroyer–am curious who Luther Hardy was. Is he famous?
April 30th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
interesting that Obama passed Hillary today in Rasmussen.
Rudy continues to do well, well after people had said he’d fall off because of his “liberalism”.
He’s actually doing better than the polls because the polls have included Thompson and Gingrich for the past 6 weeks and neither of them are in the race. It’s not really fair to have Fred and Newt in polls as it reflects candidates that aren;t in the race yet.
I’d suggest that if they had been doing polls of the field as it is, Rudy would consistently have been in the high 30s/low to mid 40s the past 6 weeks and beating McCain and Romney by 15-25 points.
With Thompson, he’s still leading comfortab;y.
That said, there’s a long way to go, but I’d rather have Rudy’s #s than anyone elses at this point, particularly in general elections which will be very important. If we get to January and polls show Rudy beating Hillary/Obama and the other guys losing or being much closer, that will help him tremendously.
Already Vanity Fair, the magazine of the anti Bush intellignetsia has an article out calling insane and suggesting he’s on medication, not to mention bringing out the anti-Italian bigotry in full force. The left is scared of him ands already resorting to character assaassination.