The Candidates
What we have all felt was coming has finally happened- Obama has passed Clinton:
For the first time in the Election 2008 season, somebody other than New York Senator Hillary Clinton is on top in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Illinois Senator Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant two point advantage over the former First Lady. It’s Obama 32% Clinton 30%. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third with support holding steady at 17%. No other candidate tops 3%. The survey was conducted April 23-26, 2007 meaning that the overwhelming majority of the interviews were completed before last Thursday’s debate in South Carolina. The impact of the debate will be measured in polling conducted this week.
Following a surprisingly strong fundraising report released at the end of March, Obama steadily gained ground during April. The last Rasmussen Reports poll released in March found Clinton enjoying a dozen-point lead. Since then, Clinton’s support has fallen seven percentage points while Obama’s total has increased the same amount. Obama now leads among voters under 40. Clinton is strongest among those 65 and older. Clinton has a two-point edge among Democrats. Obama has a nineteen-point lead among independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary.
Last week, the two top candidates were tied at 32%. Two weeks ago, Clinton had a two-point lead. Three weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven.
A separate surveyfound that Clinton is seen as politically liberal by 52% of American voters. Forty-four percent (44%) say the same about Obama while 39% see Edwards as politically liberal. Perceptions of Clinton’s ideology have shifted a bit closer to the political center in recent months. Obama has moved in the opposite direction more to the left.
However, while Clinton is seen as being somewhat to the left of Obama among all voters, that is not the case among Democrats. Democrats tend to view most of their leading candidates as politically moderate. Perceptions among Democrats of Clinton and Obama are very similar.
Of course, this is a national primary poll so we will have to see how Obama’s momentum translates to the more critical state polls. But the momentum itself is undeniable.
April 30th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Like I said a few months ago. Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee. Hillary doesn’t have the political skill or appeal to rip away his facade.
April 30th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
This poll result is extremely misleading.
It is noted that Hillary has a two-point edge among Democrats, but that Obama has a 19-point lead among independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary.
The problem is that most states have closed primaries, which ban registered independents from participating in either Democratic or Republican primaries.
Even if those who regularly vote in national elections express a strong interest in voting in the Democratic primary and technically qualify as a “likely primary voter”, unless one is prepared to forego their independent status and register as a Democrat, it is highly unlikely these registered voters will have the opportunity to participate and help determine the party’s nominee.
April 30th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Matt,
Don’t underestimate Hillary. She certainly has the political acumen to successfully tear away at Obama’s facade. Her problem is deciding whether she wants Obama or Richardson as her running mate, and should she decide to secure the Hispanic vote, I have little doubt, like a cougar, she’ll go for Obama’s jugular when the time comes to go in for the kill.
April 30th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
The dem ticket will be Clinton-Richardson. The Obama balloon, like a helium balloon will sloooooowly fall to earth.
April 30th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Ironic that her VP will be named Bill
April 30th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
The investors at Intrade are disrespecting Rasmussen; his contracts have not risen dispite his impressive performances in Rasmussen’s last two polls…