While reasonable conservatives and Republicans can and will disagree on who won tonight’s debate between the GOP presidential candidates, my personal view is that Sen. McCain is the winner of the evening, with Mayor Giuliani and Gov. Romney holding their own but not necessarily doing anything to improve their numbers. Here’s my quick take on each of the candidates:
John McCain: In a debate sans Fred Thompson, John McCain came across as the only Phil Gramm Republican on the stage tonight: a mainstream conservative who won’t raise taxes, who will cut spending, who won’t stop pursuing Osama bin Laden until the mass murderer’s corpse is rapidly decaying, and who will appoint conservative judges and address the March for Life while also maintaining a libertarian streak and refraining from using government to attempt to engineer the culture. McCain endorsed conservative judges without even being asked to address the issue, something that should appeal to pro-lifers, while also coming out on the pro-separation-of-powers side of the Schiavo issue and the pro-science side of the evolution question, which shouldn’t have even been asked as it remains irrelevant to the job of the presidency. All in all, McCain struck the appropriate balance as a fiscal and military hawk who is both somewhat secular and sufficiently socially conservative, all while remaining an affable fellow who could appeal to swing voters.
The downside? He seemed old at times, and his lines were a bit too rehearsed. But McCain’s biggest negative among Republicans — that he’s a closet Democrat — will probably be greatly diminished if he continues performances like these. Ramesh Ponnuru is right that he deserves better than the treatment afforded to him by many Republicans, though in a post-FDT field, McCain probably loses much of the territory he staked out tonight to the far more partisan Thompson.
Rudy Giuliani: The Mayor probably did enough tonight to keep his position in the polls as frontrunner, but I doubt he won many converts. The folks already supporting Giuliani as the fiscally conservative, socially agnostic, law-and-order candidate with a proven record of getting results saw tonight the tough cop that they had embraced in the first place. But Rudy’s answers on abortion will do little to convince wavering so-cons to jump onto the Giuliani bandwagon. Rudy expressed personal support for legal abortion and even for abortion funding at the state or municipal level, but made clear that he did not support federal funding of abortion and does support conservative judges who may decide to overturn Roe v. Wade. How are these positions consistent? Simple. Rudy is pro-choice, but also respectful enough of federalism to oppose a federal policy on abortion or abortion funding. This, of course, is the age-old formula that we on the blogosphere have been devising for Rudy for about two years now.
Still, the Mayor missed a major opportunity to call for overturning Roe, which would be consistent with his stated belief in federalism. Given that Roe is fundamentally inconsistent with the concept of federalism, coming out against Roe on a federalist basis would have been a major coup for Giuliani tonight. Unfortunately, the Mayor had other ideas. Basically, Rudy didn’t change any minds tonight one way or the other, something that the Mayor will have to work on, considering that his support among GOP primary voters is well below majority level.
Mitt Romney: As with the Mayor, I remain unconvinced that Romney gave us anything new tonight. He’s articulate. He’s intelligent. He’s got the hair. He’s changed his views on abortion over time. He believes in fiscal conservatism and an aggressive social conservatism. But we already knew that. And all of that’s only gotten Mitt to 10 percent in the polls of GOP primary voters. Again, where’s the beef?
Sam Brownback: Let’s get real. Everybody knows the Religious Right guy never wins the nomination. Brownback clearly believes what he advocates, and is a man of principle. But he’s in this race to make a point more than anything.
Mike Huckabee: Comes across as a genuinely nice guy, but demonstrates a liberalism on fiscal issues that just isn’t acceptable to GOP primary voters. Definitely belongs in the veepstakes.
Tommy Thompson: Another potential veep from a midwestern swing state. Thompson has an impressive record, but he is the prototypical midwestern pol, daring to replace a snazzy persona with competence and effectiveness. There was a time when a guy like that could be president. In this media age, probably not.
Tom Tancredo: A single-issue immigration candidate who makes some good points on a number of other issues, including the almost criminal overreach of the federal government during the Bush years. If he were a more balanced candidate, he’d be mildly interesting.
Ron Paul: A fundamentalist libertarian doesn’t win the presidential nomination of either party.
Jim Gilmore: A competent governor, but nothing he said stood out. Didn’t impress me much.
Duncan Hunter: His opposition to free trade would not be good for the country in my view, and my guess is that most Republicans agree. There are other hawks for those of us who want to crush Islamist terrorism into the dust from whence it comes.
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Ron Paul is our winner on the MSNBC online polls. All you Romney guys better go rally the faithful and get over there and defeat the Paul supporters.
May 3rd, 2007 at 9:58 pm
I’d say on delivery, Hunter won. I really wasn’t paying as much attention to the answers as I was to the delivery. I happen to agree with you about his anti-trade opinion.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Tommy – look at the debate breakdown – a seperate poll on MSNBC. Paul may have one the “Rate the Candidates” but Romney won in the breakdown voting on all fronts.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:07 pm
Here is the live voting saying Romney is the clear winner.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18436681
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Dave,
I really love how you would call Rudy calling for the overturning of Roe as a coup…when it would actually be a complete reversal of his position in the middle of a Presidential campaign.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:15 pm
I don’t care who won the debate tonight. I’m telling you what Olberman said. Y’all need to get over there and make sure. I don’t want to give Paul anything.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:16 pm
I would at least switch Rudy and Romney. Everyone I’ve seen on the news and the blogs, and on TV says Rudy lost ground tonight.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Current MSNBC poll shows Romney as best leadership, stood out the most, and was the most convincing. McCain had the most rehearsed answers, and Giuliani avoided the questions.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Rudy’s problem was that he didn’t give anyone who’s not already supporting him a reason to do so.
There was no new olive branch to so-cons.
He lacked his usual magnetism and charisma that may have allowed him to stand out and grab undecideds.
The 30 percent supporting him going in will support him going out and no more. Maybe less.
Romney I view similarly. We’ve seen the Mitt schtick for months now and he still hasn’t gained any real traction.
McCain is the only guy right on the issues for the broad swath of Republicans, but the guy has burned too many bridges. McCain wins the night, as does Thompson, who could run as the McCain we saw tonight, minus the history of party disloyalty.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Murphy, online polls aren’t the most accurate reliers. I’m not naive enough to take the gop straw polls seriously. Any candidates supporters can stuff an online poll.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Check out drudgereport results….interesting.
But as we have said, online polls are easily manipulating, but can be of some use for political PR.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:34 pm
DaveG, did you even watch the debate? His awkwardness on the Sunni/Shia split, given his supposed strength on the GWOT, was nearly fatal. Combine that with his horrible Roe v. Wade answer, and I think he took some major damage in this debate.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:35 pm
I know, Tommy, don’t worry. I’m not swooning all over the polls. But a 20 thousand vote poll is worth publicity.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:43 pm
I actually didn’t think Rudy’s answer to the Sunni/Shia question was so bad, especially considering that the average voter will be comparing that answer to the one that Bush would have given, which wouldn’t have been pretty.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:48 pm
I think that DaveG’s analysis on Romney is completely off base. Yes, you and I didn’t learn anything new about Romney tonight, but a large majority of Republicans know very little about Mitt, and he made a very good impression. Like you said, he was intelligent and articulate.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:48 pm
DaveG, the difference being that Guiliani’s entire platform is GWOT and economics. And he basically just betrayed his lack of preparation for the GWOT.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:48 pm
The Sunni question wasn’t that bad. He did better than I would in that situation. That was a cheap shot by the moderaters trying to get a Bush response.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:50 pm
Tommy, he should have been better prepared for that. Isn’t he the 9/11 guy, the one that’s supposed to be tough on terrorists? How can be he tough on terrorists when he can’t even tell the difference between them? Sorry, Hezbollah is not the same as Al Qaeda.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I don’t think he’s got any advantage on 9/11. I never did. He was the mayor when it happened, and performed as well as anyone could. I never thought he had any idea about anything having to do with foreign policy. So I didn’t think it was that bad for what he is.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:55 pm
Let me restate that. I think he did a fine job with his leadership via 9/11. I don’t think he has much substance with foreign policy, so I wasn’t expecting much.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:55 pm
Tommy, I agree with you. But most people just see him as the 9/11 Mayor. That contributes to the idea that he’s a strong leader, which in turn allows conservatives to otherwise overlook his lack of social conservative credentials. And now he just suffered a major blow to his “strong on terror” image with his stumbling. For me, it makes it tougher for me to support him as a candidate as a result. He’s not the 80% ally anymore, he’s the 60% ally.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:56 pm
I’m pretty neutral on him. I’d vote for him, but he’s not one of my top choices.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Tommy, he did better than I could have answered that question too. the difference is that you and I are not running for President. And he’s the GWOT guy?
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:59 pm
I don’t think he’s strongest WOT candidate out of those declared. I think McCain is.
May 3rd, 2007 at 10:59 pm
Bottom line is the headline in most papers tomorrow will be that Romney won the debate. That is what the majority of people believe and more importantly that is what MSNBC believes and most of the MSM will take their cue from MSNBC.
That will make a bunch of people who didn’t watch the debate but read the paper or watch the morning shows or news tomorrow check out Romney, which is exactly what Romney wanted to accomplish tonight. In that sense, (meeting your goal) Romney did the best job because whether he deserved it or not, millions of voters are going to take a look at him when they previously wrote him off.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:02 pm
Tommy in #24, we don’t either. The thing is that he would like people to think that about him.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:02 pm
dskinner: sorry. I’ve checked the news headlines. And they’re not saying that.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:03 pm
I truly cannot understand anyone claiming that McCain won the debate.
He seemed absolutely terrible to me.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:04 pm
MCON #26: I think most people will see through it as the campaign goes on.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:05 pm
McCain was terrible in his delivery, but I will give him credit, his answers seemed to be coming from his heart.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Tommy, you are right. I hadn’t checked yet. I guess the big news for most people is that Rudy is openly pro-choice. I should have remembered that the negative or sensational news will always win out.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:07 pm
It must have just been hopeful thinking on my part.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:08 pm
seen NY sun say Romney won
Des Moines Register says McCain won
The rest just say Rudy bucks GOP
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:09 pm
That’s pretty much how it came across to me. Rudy lost, there wasn’t a true standout, some will say Romney and some will say McCain.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:10 pm
It seems a lot of fascination for the Governator.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:11 pm
I think Romney will get a boost in the NE with Rudy’s fall. McCain will get the pub in the south adn the heartland
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Erick Erickson of RedState says McCain.
Andrew Sullivan says McCain.
Peggy Noonan says Romney.
The NRO crew is giddy about Romney.
Pretty much nobody is saying Rudy.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:15 pm
AP is bashing Rudy, and crying for the Governator.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Rudy has overshadowed any substance from the other candidates in the MSM
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:19 pm
Interesting, I just got some inside info on a certain candidate.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:20 pm
Let’s hear it Tommy.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:21 pm
Watching the debate again, Rudy has the best answer on the ID card. Immigrants should carry one until their citizens.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Dave,
Um…WTF?!? Do you have any theories to explain this?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=93435674-15e5-4c61-868f-f3b2d6c5b74e&q=39967
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:22 pm
3 weeks
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:23 pm
I think that surveyusa poll was taken pre-debate on accident. I will wait for some more reliable sources in the next couple of days.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:23 pm
LJ,
I am speechless.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:23 pm
wow. That poll is sh!t. I didn’t have an opinion over going into the debate one way or the other, and that’s crazy.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Was that a poll of Rudy supporters only?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Apparently not, dskinner. I have some questions if that was a push poll though.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:28 pm
This is perhaps the most insane poll I’ve seen in perhaps ever.
Also, Ryan Sager says that “At this point, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that the Giuliani campaign is in a full meltdown. ” Ouch! Considering what a huge fan Sager is (was?) of Rudy, that’s a stunning statement.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:29 pm
I don’t think my sarcasm came across quite the way I envisioned it about it being pre-debate. There certainly is something wrong with the poll though.
Anyone have an opinion of surveyusa other than this poll.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
he’s the one I listed above as saying Romney won.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
It’s gotta be a push poll
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:32 pm
I think Rudy answered the Shia/Sunni question better than Bush 43, but thats not saying much. As the national security candidate talking about islamic fundamentalism he should have done better. ‘Know your enemy’ is soo true.
The real loss for Rudy would be in his abortion answer, where he doesn’t lose many supporters, but hardens his non-supporters against him. He can lock in 30%, but as people get knocked out that 70% is more likely to rally around someone else. Hard for him to win from there…
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:32 pm
I don’t hold Giuliani in a higher or lower regard from the other candidates before the debate, but there’s no way he won.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:33 pm
Romney did well in the sense that voters who saw him for the first time tonight (who wondered what this guy was doing in the “first tier”) now know why he’s ranked in the top 3. Articulate and presidential. As a candidate with low ID, he did what he had to do.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:34 pm
dskinner11,
SurveyUSA has always struck me as a pretty reputable polling outfit. They had an extensive 50 state poll (plus general election match ups) on their site that was heavily discussed here back in December. I’ve never seen anything, until this, that would make me question them.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:34 pm
Brownback did well I think, most commentators I’ve read put him top of the second tier. Whether he gains any momentum is another matter. He’s in danger of “Vilsack syndrom” – everyones second favourite candidate.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Why is Gilmore described as a “competent governor”? Most Virginians don’t share that view. Would be hilarious if Gilmore went places, while Allen, M Warner, & Kaine didn’t. The latter 3 are highly regarded, something Gilmore isn’t.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:36 pm
JayPe, you might want to read that poll.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:37 pm
It seems we all might be a little out of touch with the mainstream, if that ones true.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:38 pm
The poll was based on 317 people! Who could take this seriously?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:39 pm
It seems to be legit (at least timing wise), considering some of the change in the lower tier support.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Most of our opinions have been wrong on this one JF. None of any of our picks got much publicity in tomarrows headlines.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I think at best it will be an outlier and when other polls come in we will see results more consistent with what most of the bloggers and media believe.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:40 pm
There is no way anyone could think that Rudy won the debate.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:41 pm
I’m amazed at that poll. i’m assuming the 30% were passionate supporters before the debate, cheering their candidate on.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:41 pm
LJ, we’re political junkies. Maybe for everyday folks, Giuliani came off as sincere. I didn’t think so, but I dunno.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:43 pm
CNN currently leads “Giuliani bucks GOP field on abortion rights” – hardly what a GOP candidate wants to read…
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:43 pm
I have yet to find anyone in the blogosphere or in the MSM that says that he won. Either the SurveyUSA poll is crazy or they succeeded in uncovering a trend was invisible to the naked eye.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:44 pm
After watching it again, I think McCain gave the most sincere answers, but Giuliani is overshadowing everyone else! People won’t change their opinions about McCain, and Romney isn’t going to get much pub. Rudy is all anyone cares about.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:45 pm
The Fix says Romney “stood out with clear and crisp answers — showing flashes of humor and an ease with the important issues. He sounded authoritative when he talked about Iraq (not an easy task for a one-term governor of Massachusetts) and effectively cast himself — a Mormon — as part of the broad faith community in America.”
Of Giuliani he says he “committed no major blunders but also didn’t distinguish himself particularly. He struggled a bit to answer a question on whether it would be a good day if and when Roe vs. Wade was repealed (“It would be ok,” he said) and seemed slightly flummoxed on a question about the difference between Sunni and Shia.”
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/?hpid=topnews
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:45 pm
I don’t like it, but he’s a media darling- good or bad.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:45 pm
According to the poll, 26% of pro-lifers say that Guiliani won, and that’s the most support for any candidate. This poll has zero credibility.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:46 pm
No, it shows lack of education of the voters.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:47 pm
Huh? Viewers heard Guiliani say that upholding Roe v. Wade was ok. Lack of education, or lack of attention span?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:48 pm
or it shows that people are buying into Rudy’s image more than anything else
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:48 pm
I misread your first statement
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:49 pm
It’s a credible poll. Rudy’s image is going to be tougher than anybody thought to bring down.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:50 pm
Latest headlines are saying all the candidates failed.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:50 pm
After reading the comments and various blog entries on the subject, I’m willing to entertain the idea that Romney also deserves honorable mention or some such thing.
Most people aren’t political junkies like us, and those tuning into Romney for the first time were probably dazzled by his presentation. I’ve watched plenty of Romney speeches, and so I’ve seen it all before, and Mitt as a candidate remains far down my list for all the reasons that I’ve stated in the past and will do so again in the future. But seeing Romney for the first time is probably something that gets your attention, and so I agree that Romney did what he had to do to stay in the race.
Similarly, I stick by my belief that McCain also stayed relevant tonight by reminding us that he actually is a Republican, and a fairly conservative one at that.
Rudy, on the other hand, leaves with the same 30 percent of Republicans that he came in with. He doesn’t gain any support, and McCain and Romney probably do. Combine all of that with about 15 percent of Republicans waiting to support Fred Thompson when he gets in the race and we still have a very open race.
I would now say that Rudy is far from inevitable.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:51 pm
Utterly bizarre. I agree with LJ. I’ve yet to hear anyone, official blogger or not, suggest that Rudy won the debate. I slogged through at least 500 posts on FreeRepublic’s live thread, and not a single comment saying that Rudy won. Did SurveyUSA, by any chance, poll all Republican voters, even those who didn’t watch the debate?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:51 pm
http://www.malibuartsreviews.com/news/national/050307debate.html
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:52 pm
Tommy, I’m not a statistician, but I don’t think a sample size of 317 is enough to draw statistically significant conclusions for the entire viewing audience. Can any of the stat guys here clarify?
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:52 pm
In fact, USA today even questions Giuliani in its analysis, saying of his abortion answer:
“It would be OK to repeal it,” Giuliani said in a halting response that could cause him significant problems with the Republican base. “It would be OK if a strict constructionist viewed it as precedent.”
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
Depends on who the 317 are. Are they likely Republican primary voters with no leanings to any candidate? Or are they likely voters who are already committed to a candidate? etc.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
Matt, they did that thing where the first question was if they watched the debate, and less than 15% had, so the rest of the poll was just based on that remaining stub. That always seemed like a dubious methodology to me, but I’m not versed in statistics.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
I think these debate watchers must have been switching the channel to watch “The Office” the NBA playoffs or something else because nobody who sat through the whole 90 minutes came away with that impression.
Either way the headlines are about his pro-choice views. It is impossible for that headline to gain any votes in the GOP primary so he probably will be hurt some as more people become aware of his liberal social positions.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
The MSM is set on bashing us.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:53 pm
JayPe, it was across the board.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Tommy, what else is new? Thank G-d for Fox.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:55 pm
After reading these later posts, I now take the positions that ratings are not going to be very high, so ………………….
Nobody watched.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:55 pm
That’s very true JF
I still don’t like Hannity very much though
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:56 pm
Although, I admit that Alan Colmes’ radio show is one of my favorites.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:56 pm
“McCain was terrible in his delivery, but I will give him credit, his answers seemed to be coming from his heart.”
Agreed. McCain answered questions poorly because he cared almost too much about the answers. When it came to the War on Terror, I was impressed.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:57 pm
Rusty Humphries is talking about the poll
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:57 pm
Tommy, agreed. I wish it were a little bit more professional overall. As much as it pains me to say it, I wish they were modeled a little bit more closely on CNN International. I loved Q&A with Riz Khan when I lived in London. Still, I’ll take what I can get, given the alternatives.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:58 pm
Fred Thompson’s not going to win by default. He’s going to have to slog past McCain and Giuliani while fedning off Romney. He can’t do that by staying out.
The advantage is that he can go after the other candidates, especially Giuliani, in the way the other candidates can’t. His tough, no-nonsense image will let him get away with attacking them.
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:58 pm
amen
May 3rd, 2007 at 11:59 pm
Henry, nobody’s talking about Thompson right now.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:00 am
Although, I found out the date he’s getting in tonight, and it’s not far off as you think.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:00 am
FDT’s advantage here is that a lot of people will conclude that our field was sloppy, and go with the devil they don’t know rather than the devils who embarrassed themselves on an enemy network.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:01 am
What am I, sliced bread? I’m talking about Thompson.
I’d like Thompson to get in and take down Giuliani.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:01 am
I agree that McCain was sincere. But frankly, McCain’s an awful liar, and it’s clear when his heart isn’t in a position, or when he’d rather not answer the question. I mean, I don’t think McCain could possibily fool anyone about anything. And for the first time, I’m able to believe fully that he’ll be solid on judges. And that was really the only remaining question I had with him. He’s probably tied with Fred now for second in my opinion, and I think he’ll stay there until Fred actually gets in the race and begins facing tough situations.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:02 am
Nobody “won” this debate – there were too many candidates involved for anyone to really say anything (and at this point it’s kind of pointless to have a debate without the all-but-declared Fred Thompson on stage). Until we start whitling down the number of candiates involved, debates serve no purpose other than to give second-tier candidates a little national airtime that they otherwise couldn’t pay for.
A REAL, PRODUCTIVE debate would be one limited to Giuliani, McCain, Romney, F. Thompson, and Gingrich if he runs – not a circus like tonight.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:02 am
Tommy, I assume this is the inside info that you refered to earlier. I also assume that when you posted 3 weeks immediately after that you were stating the time that FDT will enter the race. I will take your non-denial as a confirmation that FDT will get in the race in 3 weeks or thereabouts.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:04 am
you got it, dskinner11. subject to change, but that’s the word.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:04 am
the surveyusa poll is rather meaningless as you can see just by reading the first couple of paragraphs:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=93435674-15e5-4c61-868f-f3b2d6c5b74e
it looks like they included dems in the poll. What a joke!
May 4th, 2007 at 12:05 am
By the way thanks for the info. I can’t wait it will be fun seeing the top 4 battle it out.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:07 am
MCON that explains it. Thanks for the research.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:08 am
dskinner11: I can’t wait either. That’s when the other three will have a chance to really sway my opinion, when they go up against my preference.
Henry, I just am not in the mood to debate the merits of an FDT campaign right now.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:08 am
And then we can all watch the MSM slowly grind FDT down the same way they’re doing Giuliani.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:08 am
Only 13% of those that responded actually even watched the debate!
What did I tell people about the debates?
It is way too early this debate has done one thing only and that is to sure up the base of each candidate that their candidate is good on the stage and swings some undecided voters in the room. The only other thing the debate does is give sound bites to use on YouTube which I am not convinced can win you an election by it self.
What is a debate if no one watches it?
May 4th, 2007 at 12:10 am
MCON: good research. I don’t think it helped anyone much. Romney in the NE, and McCain in the south is my prediction, at least that’s how the press seems to be playing it. (of course, under the Rudy headlines)
May 4th, 2007 at 12:10 am
So, how long before we get debates with half the number of candidates and twice the response time for each question? Thompson will probably drop out around Ames straw poll time, and Gilmore/Huckabee may switch to the Senate races, who else may drop out? Or are we stuck with 8+ candidates slugging it out on American Idol in 30 second soundbites?
May 4th, 2007 at 12:10 am
A sidenote: over at intrade it looks like they have declared Romney the winner tonight. He has jumped several points since the debate while Rudy has dropped a couple.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:13 am
Tancredo will probably go. Maybe Gilmore. The rest aren’t going anywhere.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:13 am
Paul will “fade away”.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:14 am
MCON, please don’t take Intrade seriously. Have you seen the volume of the trades?
May 4th, 2007 at 12:14 am
Anybody remember who said that?
May 4th, 2007 at 12:16 am
MacArthur, or the British WWI song?
May 4th, 2007 at 12:16 am
I look at a number of different sites and intrade is one of many opinions.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:17 am
I was referring to MacArthur…
May 4th, 2007 at 12:17 am
MCON, what is Intrade’s record for predicting events? Given that it’s an illiquid market, I doubt it has any accuracy.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:18 am
Here’s part of the AP story:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/04/politics/main2760036.shtml
“Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani turned in an almost casual performance, one backed up with a competent command of facts but betrayed with some less-than-convincing arguments about his convictions. Giuliani was quick to say he was personally opposed to abortion but his answers about government funding were confusing. While he said that the Hyde Amendment, which prohibits most federal funding for abortions, should remain law, Giuliani readily admitted he supported New York state funding as mayor.
Arizona Senator John McCain, who came out energetic to the extreme at the beginning of the debate, turned in a solid performance overall, hitting most key issues. In a nod to the most important person in the room Nancy Reagan McCain said he supports stem cell research when it comes to embryos already destined to destruction or perpetual animation. It’s a cause dear to the heart of the former First Lady but at odds with conservatives within the party.
On the same issue, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney probably went over the heads of most viewers. Asked about the use of embryonic stem cells for research to cure diseases, Romney said he wouldn’t use federal funds for that but touted a procedure very few have likely ever heard of.
“Altered nuclear transfer creates embryo-like cells that can be used for stem cell research. In my view, that’s the most promising source,” said Romney.
And many conservative may have been unconvinced by his explanation about his public switch on abortion, which he described as having come about as a result of a debate over cloning.
As with the Democratic debate last week, almost all of the lesser-known candidates proved up to the task but none were able to break out of the pack. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee sounded eloquent when discussing the issue of life.”
May 4th, 2007 at 12:20 am
Tommy, that article looks like they could have skipped the debate and still written it based on public information. Actually, that’s probably exactly what they did.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:21 am
I tend to agree with you.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:26 am
JF,
To be perfectly honest I am not familiar with Intrade’s track record. (If I remember correctly…)I can say though that the market predicted the R’s losing the house and senate. I can’t say the same about a lot of pundits out there.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:30 am
MCON, let me apologize for linking to that idiot Ezra Klein, but apparently Intrade predicted the GOP would keep the Senate.
http://ezraklein.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/brave_new_world.html
May 4th, 2007 at 12:33 am
Much better analysis here, but it still shows Intrade is inaccurate. And how could they be accurate? There’s no insider trading with elections.
http://eidelblog.blogspot.com/2006/11/my-last-pre-election-intrade.html
May 4th, 2007 at 12:34 am
I don’t know who won the debate in an objective sense. All I know is who I like better than I did before and who I like less.
Like more:
Romney; McCain; Hunter; Tancredo and Paul (largely because I didn’t like these two at all before)
Like less:
Giuliani.
I’m bugged at F.Thompson for skipping the debate, but I’m really anxious for him to get in and start taking down Giuliani. Run, Fred, Run!
May 4th, 2007 at 12:34 am
The ABC radio news updates are playing up Giuliani’s tough on terror quote. They didn’t even say anything about Romney. Gave a short quote to Tancredo, McCain, and Tommy Thompson.
Not saying this to be negative. It just seems like the media is going to play the Rudy card to death.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:36 am
Henry, spot on, except I ended up liking Huckabee, too, and I’m agnostic about FDT (don’t really see how he’s going to come in and save this party given his inexperience). But the more the merrier.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:38 am
JF: Tomarrow nights speech should let us know, me included, alot more, it’s on CSPAN. If we want to go on experience alone, Huckabee and T. Thompson are far and away the most qualified, going by executive government experience.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:39 am
and both were very successful governors.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:40 am
I look forward to the CSPAN speech, if I can get to a TV in time. Hopefully I’ll catch the inevitable youtube clips, if not.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:43 am
Hope you can too. It won’t start til 11:30 pm here. Youtube is fine, but it kind of takes something out of the experience to me anyways. The little screen and the small speakers with the audio sync out of place….
May 4th, 2007 at 12:45 am
Well, if nothing else can knock out Rudy, there’s always this……
http://www.nysun.com/article/53807
May 4th, 2007 at 12:47 am
I’m agnostic about FDT (don’t really see how he’s going to come in and save this party given his inexperience).
I like FThompson quite a bit, but I’d like him to get in just to take Giuliani down, if for no other reason. I still give Romney a slight edge because of his executive prowess.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:50 am
I was really disappointed in the debate. I felt like McCain was weak at the start and unpolished until the last 40 minutes when he began to show some fight.
Rudy seemed dry and he used John Kerry talking points on abortion (not a wise way to defend your pro-choice position in front of people who aren’t already supporting you).
Romney had a few good moments but he didn’t rise above the pack. He needed to do better to have momentum.
Brownback showed class which won him a few points. He never articulated why he should be President instead of the others. Missed opportunity.
The also-rans all blended into the background. T. Thompson, Tancredo, Gilmore and Paul all seemed a bit boring and didn’t provide a reason for voters to turn away from McCain, Rudy or Romney and support them.
Huckabee provided a more articulate and sincere version of Bush’s compassionate conservatism. Too bad for Huckabee that Bush has discredited that brand.
In the debate I’d say I was extremely underwhelmed. If Fred Thompson was watching he probably was re-assured that there is a gaping whole in this race for another candidate.
On the whole I was looking for a candidate to support and I didn’t find one. Fairly disappointing debate.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:51 am
Henry Heavner, how Machiavellian of you! I like your style.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:51 am
econ: That format really hurts anybody’s chances. The only thing it can do is hurt you.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:52 am
geez… I can tell it’s almost 2 am, that last post sounded like Yogi Berra
May 4th, 2007 at 12:52 am
On the whole I was looking for a candidate to support and I didn’t find one. Fairly disappointing debate.
I doubt FThompson would have looked any better. The format and the number of candidates mean that no one can really stand out. Just the way it is.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:54 am
Thompson would’ve been like a more articulate, elegant Duncan Hunter, from my experience of watching him, which I’ve done for a long time. He wouldn’ve done well, but probably wouldn’t of gained much in that format.
May 4th, 2007 at 12:56 am
off topic but how is this quote?
“the prospect of a democratic president is like leaving the door open at an insane asylum and seeing who makes it out first.”
May 4th, 2007 at 12:58 am
Romney = Fake
May 4th, 2007 at 12:58 am
That’s pretty good. It’s even a better description of the Democrat primary
May 4th, 2007 at 12:59 am
Jake= don’t be a jerk. I had no opinion of any of them going in tonight. And Rudy didn’t score any points.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:00 am
Jake=(put random insult here)
May 4th, 2007 at 1:00 am
“Henry Heavner, how Machiavellian of you! I like your style.”
It would be Machiavellian if I were wanting Giuliani taken down to help out Romney or McCain or someboyd, but no, I want Giuliani out of the race because he’s pro-choice and in my opinion will do big long-term harm to the GOP.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:00 am
tommy,
well the girl was actually talking about the dem debate….
May 4th, 2007 at 1:01 am
OK, that makes perfect sense then.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:02 am
and is actually a very accurate and quite funny description
May 4th, 2007 at 1:03 am
It seems that the MSM is only going to focus on Rudy. It will be interesting to see what conservatives on the radio, internet and foxnews say tomorrow. I think they won’t be so kind to the Mayor.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:04 am
I don’t either. Scarborough, and Noonan will go for Romney. Levin will go for FThompson. Rush will stay out of it until we have a clear favorite. Hannity will still be a Rudy guy.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:06 am
Whose moderating the FOX debate?
I don’t get fox. I wonder if it will be re-aired somewhere else.
I don’t want to read about it here as it’ll be hard to judge what occurred through the spin.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:08 am
probably Alan Colmes
May 4th, 2007 at 1:08 am
No, I’d say Hume or Wallace.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:09 am
Maybe it’ll be Geraldo!
May 4th, 2007 at 1:11 am
good night it’s 2 am. going to bed.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:12 am
Tommy an East Coaster, huh?
Oh well I still like you.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:06 am
McCain, Giuliani, Romney Take Hard Line on National Security
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alrIIJMpGM0o&refer=home
May 4th, 2007 at 2:23 am
FThompson should be doing everything in his power to take TThompson out of the race. Too confusing.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:46 am
FDT could well save TT’s candidacy, as Tommy gets votes from people thinking he’s “that actor”.
What would be even more confusing if a candidate called Hillary Obama could enter the Dem field. That would make commentators terrified! Shame its a dream…
May 4th, 2007 at 2:50 am
dskinner11 (#155) If abortion is still a key issue for the GOP, then Rudy’s equivication (the only one in the field) will cost him. If people no longer care, and are more interested in terrorists than judges he’ll be fine.
I agree, I think he won’t be treated well by the base.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:56 am
Politico’s reports say the following:
“Each of the Big Three had their strong moments…That said, each had a stumble or two.”
“Among the other candidates, Sam Brownback had a particularly strong night. He talked with passion and elegance about the social issues that are the backbone of his candidacy.”
Overall view? Romney won – “Mitt Romney achieved almost everything he wanted to achieve.
He looked and sounded presidential. He hit his talking points. And voters who knew nothing about him before the debate except that he was a Mormon, came away knowing a lot more.”
They also make a very important point: “Romney was a man with a plan. He knew what points he wanted to make and he made them. Will it be enough to skyrocket him to the top of the polls? No. Debates almost never do that. But Romney did manage to introduce himself to voters in the way he wanted.”
May 4th, 2007 at 3:08 am
That said, will be interesting if the national polls move at all. What were the ratings like?
May 4th, 2007 at 3:46 am
Unless a candidate blunders or dominates polls usually don’t move much (at least as far as we can tell). I think voters will begin to see the candidates’ style and substance more as the campaign continues.
If McCain can’t keep up pace and Rudy continues to fumble in the task of using conservative rhetoric/style then their poll numbers will reflect that reality. Romney and Fred are really difficult to analyze because their campaigns rely on other candidates more than McCain or Rudy.
I don’t think you can argue that any of the third tier candidates besides maybe Huckabee has any chance of being nominated. A scenario for a Huckabee nomination is still much more implausible than McCain, Rudy Fred, or Romney though. The other candidates just didn’t show Presidential timbre or status (although I like Hunter policy-wise more than anyone else on the stage).
May 4th, 2007 at 5:04 am
Ron Paul won in my opinion. He was the only candidate that held traditional republican values.
He was also the only candidate that seemed concerned with the out of control spending and the
size and scope of the federal government. We need this guy in office to restore our Republic.
It truly is a breath of fresh air to have someone so consistant in their beliefs with a consistant
record of voting within the boundaries set forth in the Constitution.
May 4th, 2007 at 5:44 am
Whose moderating the FOX debate?
Good question you will have 2 really good men!
Wendell Goler and Chris Wallace
May 4th, 2007 at 6:26 am
I think Romney’s hair definitely won the debate. Romney for VEEP!
May 4th, 2007 at 6:39 am
Last nights debate showed me this.. A Romney/Brownback ticket should be in the works. I except Brownback to stay through the long haul (At least until Jan) and Romney will select Brownback to be his VP. Or Brownback will choose Romney.
Go Sam! U will make a great President and last nights debate proves that!
May 4th, 2007 at 7:03 am
Just for the Record: This morning’s AOL online poll (as of 06:17 AM ET) from thousands of viewers has Giuliani winning the debate with 38% followed by McCain & Romney with 28% each.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:14 am
Just for the record , Rudy was exactly right on the historical distinction between Sunni and Shia. I was amazed he knew that.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:15 am
JL Did Brownback raise his hand saying he didn’t believe in evolution, Wow.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:23 am
Just for the record this mornings Drudgereport poll has Romney with 25,000 votes, Giuliani with 14,100 votes and Ron Paul with 13,000 votes. This is out of nearly 71,000 votes.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:25 am
[...] DaveG at Race42008 weights in: [...]
May 4th, 2007 at 7:43 am
JL Did Brownback raise his hand saying he didn’t believe in evolution, Wow.
—–
Yes people have personal views on the issue that is ok in my view. Notice they didn’t ask if that would have been taught in schools, etc. just is that what you beleive or not.
It was a stupid question to ask but there was NOTHING wrong with the answer.
May 4th, 2007 at 7:45 am
Jason–wait til Feb 5
May 4th, 2007 at 7:47 am
All right, more than one can play at the tit-for-tat game. Just for the Record: The AOL On-Line Poll is now, as of 08:45 AM ET, is up to 81,840 votes, and Rudy has widened his lead:
Giuliani 40%
McCain 20%
Romney 19%
Paul 04%
Thompson 04%
May 4th, 2007 at 7:49 am
They are blind, Rudy did not win his views on abortion killed him in a GOP debate Rudy is dangerous he must be stopped!
May 4th, 2007 at 8:09 am
And now, Ta-Da: The AOL On-Line Poll is now, as of 09:08 AM ET, is up to 89,330 votes, and Rudy has widened his lead yet again:
Giuliani 40%
McCain 19%
Romney 19%
Paul 04%
Thompson 04%
May 4th, 2007 at 8:25 am
I can’t believe you have Guliani second. He was so unimpressive. It looked liked he didn’t even care what was going on. McCain did well and Romney did very well. The rest were just annoying. Very suprised that you think Guliani did well.
May 4th, 2007 at 8:44 am
These debates are a farce, in my opinion. The presidential candidates in France debated for two and a half hours!! One on one for two and a half hours.
May 4th, 2007 at 8:59 am
Luther, sorry to burst your bubble, but Drudge is a well-known conservative website, and AOL is a well-known liberal web site. Guiliani will do well with Democrats (since he’s half-Dem), but it won’t matter if he can’t get the conservative nomination.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Peter, that was after the first round of Presidential elections, when the other 10 candidates had been eliminated. You’re comparing seeds to apples. After our candidate is nominated and the Democratic candidate is nominated, I’m sure we’ll have our own hour+ long, one-on-one debates.
Also, it’s never a good idea to point to France as a model on a conservative web site.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:23 am
The AOL On-Line Poll is now, as of 10:18 AM ET, is up to 108,056 votes, and Rudy has widened his lead yet again:
Giuliani 41%
McCain 19%
Romney 19%
Paul 04%
Thompson 04%
I also note — just for the Record — from the NYT front page this morning that Florida, a State where Rudy leads by 23% (38%-15%), in the latest Quinnipiac Poll, released 24 April 2007, has now officially moved its Primary to 29 January 2008.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:33 am
Nobody stood out in todays headlines down here.
Online polls are a joke.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:35 am
AOL polls are the worst Luther. I have AOL, and those polls are a joke.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:45 am
Reading through today’s Chattanooga Times Fress Press, which is a very respected paper in the south:
Headline:
Abortion in the Spotlight
By Liz Sidoti, AP
“Issue of abortion looms large in the 2008 campaign in a party where a wide swath of political activists supports overturning… 1973 Roe v Wade”
“Romney acknowledged he had been effectively pro-choice”
“Giuliani has a record of supporting abortion rights”
“Alone among the top 3 contenders last night, McCain has a career-long opposition to abortion.”
“All stressed importance of prevailing in Iraq”
Pretty much the coverage I expected in this region.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:48 am
Brownback was the strongest most convening pro-life man on that stage last night. His comments were very moving that will connect well with many voters. Expect the polls in the coming days to reflect that Brownback is is on his way to becoming the nominee.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:57 am
They actually complimented Brownback in the article.
May 4th, 2007 at 10:01 am
From the article
Giuliani’s 9 other rivals agreed that it would be a great day if the court overturns the landmark ruling.
“Glorious day of human liberty and freedom,” responded Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas.
May 4th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Last night’s debate isn’t even mentioned in Section A of the Atlanta Journal- Constitution
May 4th, 2007 at 10:24 am
JF – if it wasn’t for France there would be no USA. They helped us mightily in the Revolutionary War. And even when it’s down to 2 candidates here, they never go at it for 180 minutes with no moderator.
May 4th, 2007 at 10:33 am
Take off your goggles Dave G. Giuliani bombed. Your attempting to help your candidate save face. And of course we didn’t get anything thing new from Romney, at least not you and I. But the thousands of people that tuned in that were unfamiliar with Romney got a completely new experience from him. Most of those people already knew Rudy, and he did not fair very well among them.
May 4th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Jason,
The surveyUSA poll we saw yesterday is an example of what happens when they include the dems’ opinions: Rudy wins because he is the liberal odd duck in the group.
May 4th, 2007 at 10:56 am
A few thoughts, if we can be brutally honest.
First, Ryan Sager is now down on Rudy Giuliani because he is devastated that the Mayor came out against the New Hampshire civil unions bill. His reporting may well now be biased given that the Mayor is stepping back from being the champion of Log Cabin Republicans.
Second, given that Peggy Noonan, whose work I normally adore, has reportedly spoken with Mitt Romney about coming on-board his campaign, it is disingenuous and not surprising of her to claim that he won the debate. This is about as surprising as finding out that Hugh Hewitt also thinks Romney won the debate last night.
I really like the point DaveG made – Giuliani is not reaching out to broaden his appeal and giving people other than those already sold on him a reason to come aboard. And I agree with the implication DaveG makes – as a pro-choice candidate in a GOP primary where conservatives dominate, he does not have enough support yet to win the nomination.
May 4th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
MyNavel.com’s online straw poll has Gilmore the winner with more than 130% of 1 trillion votes cast!
—————-
“Expect the polls in the coming days to reflect that Brownback is on his way to becoming the nominee.”
As a straight arrow, I can’t really use the pharmacologicals that would allow me to have such an expectation.
———————
Republius, you need to lighten up. Noonan says what she thinks. If she’s thinking about joining the Romney campaign, its because she likes him. Its embarassing that you’d do a 180 in your opinion on Noonan to avoid giving Romney any propos.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
And, just for the Record, as I leave for my Friday afternoon meeting, the AOL On-Line Poll is now, as of 03:09 PM ET, up to 128,011 votes, and Rudy maintains his consistent lead:
Giuliani 40%
Romney 20%
McCain 19%
Paul 04%
Thompson 04%
May 4th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
PS: Be sure to read Response no. “448″ on the “GOP Presidential Debate Open Forum” thread!