The latest poll of the GOP field from ARG shows Thompson and Romney falling into single-digits and being replaced by Newt, who has moved into third place. Meanwhile, McCain continues his ascent back into the 20s, while Rudy holds steady. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
American Research Group GOP National Primary, conducted May 9th-12th, 2007
- Rudy Giuliani: 28%
- John McCain: 24%
- Newt Gingrich: 13%
- Mitt Romney: 8%
- Fred Thompson: 6%
- All Others 1% or less
Is the aura around Fred Thompson finally evaporating? Probably. As conservatives learn that FDT is not the character from Days of Thunder with a conservative political philosophy, but is in fact an old, retired senator with little apparent energy, the idea that Thompson will be able to ride in from the south and take America by storm becomes less and less credible. Conservatives’ latest white knight appears to be Newt, who has inherited the Thompson aura, at least until everyone remembers that the man is decidedly unelectable, at which point grumpy conservatives will go back to being grumpy. And undecided.
Meanwhile, until someone not named Rudy or McCain is able to consolidate the Newt/Romney/Thompson voters, no one will be able to outpoll the two frontrunners, meaning that it is still very unlikely that anyone other than Giuliani or McCain will be the nominee. Roughly half of the party doesn’t want either of the frontrunners, but considering that these voters seem incapable of deciding on a single alternative, they will most likely end up choosing between the former New York Mayor and the Arizona senator for the nomination.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
DaveG;
1. This poll is very flawed, look for reason’s discussed below in another post where this poll was mentioned.
2. Fred’s reception from the Christian right at the CNP was pretty ecstatic, and his speech was very well recieved. I posted one article for you all, and I talked to someone who attended, and that’s why the evangelicals are getting behind his candidacy, to endorse when he enters the race.
3. Again, this poll is extremely flawed. Check its past results for proof
May 14th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
4. If you go by ARG, Thompson has rarely broken double digits at all.
You might want to read these articles before you post an ARG poll or give an ill informed opinion.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20070514-124527-5197r.htm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/06/american_research_group_vs_rud_1.html
May 14th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Read this from earlier this year before you go posting opinions about ARG
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/06/american_research_group_vs_rud_1.html
May 14th, 2007 at 7:30 pm
here’s another one about ARG
the-ts-maven.blogspot.com/2007/05/whacked-out-arg-poll.html
May 14th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Excellent post; I agree with every word. Thompson is a flash in the pan, for lack of a better phrase, and completely unremarkable. I’ve been thinking that for months. I like Thompson, but there’s nothing special about him. I think the three-pronged conservatives (social/economic/foreign policy all) would be foolish not to settle on Newt, however, since he has the most intellectual firepower. I’d be OK with Newt if my man Rudy were to fail.
Tommy, I read that article but remain skeptical. There are many Christian Right members backing Rudy because they want to win. This isn’t hot air. Anecdotal evidence I’ve heard and some actual poll numbers support this. They know that losing on principle 100% isn’t as good as getting 50%. Politics is the only arena on Earth where pragmatism is admirable.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Admirable over principle, I mean.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
ARG was the same polling firm that had LaMont leading Leiberman late in the race for Senator:
lamontblog.blogspot.com/2006/09/arg-lamont-takes-lead-among.html
May 14th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Another one:
http://www.hedgehogreport.com/index.php/6931
May 14th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
LG: Nobody in the south will even vote for Newt anymore. He’s unelectable. I like the guy, but wouldn’t trust him at all.
There is more than one article out about with interviews. I talked to somebody who attended it. These aren’t just average envangelicals, these are THE BIG ONES.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
You obviously don’t know who the CNP is.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
It’s true that ARG isn’t a very reputable polling organization. They tend to skew left, as could be shown in 2006 or 2004. However, like any poll, we can take this one as a snapshot in time and compare it with their last snapshot in time to see trend lines.
What will be interesting will be to see what other polls are saying – particularly Rasmussen tomorrow morning, who was hands down the most accurate pollster in ‘06 and in ‘04.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
DaveG; I’m actually quite shocked you posted this. You’ve usually been pretty fair. As bad as this poll has been to Rudy over the last years. But of course, to you, only good polls count, like online ones.
#2- You believe that Romney lost 4% in this poll? I’m not a Romney supporter, but am hardly going to see him drop this much. If you haven’t noticed, the poll was taken from an average of certain states, they only polled one state in the south, and more in the northern regions. This is quite irresponsible of you.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Thank you HeavyM. Who would’ve thought that Thompson and Romney supporters are teaming up on anything at this point.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
Rudy Goes For the Save
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
After a spate of bad publicity generated by dissing the Iowa farm family of Jerry and Deborah VonSprecken last week (including a phone call by John McCain trying to capitalize on Rudy’s mistake), the Giuliani campaign has announced that – lo and behold! – Deborah VonSprecken is Rudy’s new county chairperson in Jones County:
For Immediate Release
Monday, May 14, 2007
Rudy Giuliani Announces Deborah VonSprecken as Jones County Chair in Iowa
New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced today that Deborah VonSprecken from Olin, Iowa will serve as the Jones County Chair. As part of Mayor Giuliani’s Iowa leadership team Mrs. VonSprecken will spearhead the campaign’s organizational efforts in the county. The announcement followed a visit from Rudy Giuliani to the VonSprecken’s family farm in Olin where Mayor Giuliani apologized for the misunderstanding surrounding his last visit to the state. After spending nearly two hours visiting with Mr. and Mrs. VonSprecken, Deborah expressed her interest in supporting Mayor Giuliani and leading his efforts in Jones County.
“I am honored to have Deborah as part of my team in Iowa. As the hard-working owner of a family farm she understands the importance of cutting taxes and implementing fiscal discipline to grow the economy and increase opportunity,” said Mayor Rudy Giuliani. “Her support is tremendous and will be of great value to our efforts in Iowa.”
May 14th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
“DaveG; I’m actually quite shocked you posted this. You’ve usually been pretty fair.”
Heh. It’s amazing how unfair a guy becomes when he bears bad news w/r/t the candidate of the individual adjudicating the fairness.
Perception is often everything.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
DaveG; That’s not the point. The point is that this is a bad poll. Rudy’s own supporters said that for a year and a half. Now you think it’s great.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Read anything about the ARG poll and you’ll see. Saying something like this makes you look dumb.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
I am amazed that any Republican would seriously think that Newt Gingrich could be elected president. Nominating Newt would insure a Democratic landslide regardless of their nominee. This man is one of the biggest hypocrites of all times and has the highest negatives of any possible Republican candidate. Does the party want to commit suicide?
May 14th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
Nobody with any sense would see that Newt would get elected. This is like the poll that had Newt in 2nd place in South Carolina last week. It’s unreliable, and makes no sense. Anybody who studies polls would notice that.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
People will flirt with Gingrich just like they’re flirting with Thompson. Its more a sign of dissatisfaction than anything. I don’t think either will gain traction if they actually enter the race.
May 14th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
The race on the GOP side is beginning to resemble a game of whack-a-mole. Here’s how it works:
1) Candidate A has a good news cycle and GOP voters remember why they like the guy (Newt=Contract with America, Fred=conservative movie star, Rudy=tax cutter, etc).
2) Candidate A rises in the polls.
3) Candidate A has a poor news cycle and GOP voters remember all of the problems they have with the guy (Newt=unelectable, McCain=CFR, Rudy=abortion, etc).
4) Candidate A falls in the polls.
5) Repeat 1-4 with Candidate B.
And so on. The result is that no one is able to establish any sort of definite trajectory in this race. The pertinent issues of course become a) how long will this continue and b) if it continues all the way to Iowa, and nobody breaks out of the pack, victory could be contingent on just which “mole” has happened to pop up at that particular moment in time.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
DaveG; That’s part of the problem, Rudy has been getting hammered the last two weeks, and he picks up a point. Don’t be naive.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:01 pm
I don’t doubt that he’s still in the lead, but don’t say that he only dropped one point while Romney dropped four and Thompson three, while Gilmore, Paul and Hunter are gaining, adn the undecideds are going down.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Tommy, dude, chill. It’s just a poll. Relax. Have a beer.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Gilmore, Paul & Hunter are gaining, and if they continue this momentum they could be unstoppable come Iowa. The previous top 3 should be getting worried…
May 14th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Look at this poll, DaveG
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/06/american_research_group_vs_rud_1.html
ARG (likely Republican caucus voters, April 25 – May 2, 2006)
without Giuliani
John McCain: 26
Bill Frist: 10
with Giuliani
John McCain: 23
Rudolph Giuliani: 16
Victory Enterprises (potential Republican caucus attendees, Aug. 8-10, 2005)
With Giuliani on first question
Rudy Giuliani: 22
John McCain: 22
VE also polled the candidates’ favorable/unfavorable/no opinion numbers:
McCain: 44/33/17
Giuliani: 66/9/16
[note that McCain has far lower favorables in Iowa, and far higher unfavorables]
MASSACHUSETTS
ARG (likely Republican primary voters, April 25 – May 2, 2006)
Without Giuliani
McCain: 48
Romney: 17
with Giuliani
John McCain: 42
Rudolph Giuliani: 21
Boston Globe poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire (likely Republican primary voters, Aug. 9-17, 2005)
Rudolph Giuliani: 29
John McCain: 26
Mitt Romney: 19
Now, admittedly, in both cases the Rudy-optimistic poll was taken in 2005 and the Rudy-less-optimistic poll was taken in 2006. But I haven’t seen one poll over time that’s shown such a massive drop-off in support for Rudy. This is
May 14th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Tommy, ease up on the tone a little buddy. It’s just a poll, and Dave isn’t a bad guy for posting it. All I said was approach ARG polls with caution, but they’re still useful polls.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
DaveG; I am relaxed. Making pronouncements that based on a completely whacked out poll makes no sense:
Example
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/06/american_research_group_vs_rud_1.html
I’ve had a bee in my bonnet about this for a little while, so I figure I’ll get it out, since American Research Group has released yet another poll making it appear as if Sen. John McCain were the undisputed frontrunner in the race for the ‘08 GOP nomination.
ARG’s recent Rhode Island poll shows McCain with the support of 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters in the state. Mitt Romney comes in second with 14 percent. Newt Gingrich rounds out the top three with 4 percent. Giuliani’s name isn’t even on the list of candidates respondents are asked to choose from.
When Rudy Giuliani is added to a second question on the GOP primary in ARG’s poll, it’s McCain 43 percent, Giuliani 19 percent.
So, what does this mean? It means that any candidate added in a second question like this is likely to register a far lower level of support than if they’d been included as a top-tier candidate in the first question. ARG lists McCain, Romney, Gingrich, George Pataki (George Pataki!?!?!?), George Allen, Sam Brownback, Bill Frist, Chuck Hagel, and Mike (I heart) Huckabee as first-tier candidates, but thinks Rudy Giuliani shouldn’t be on the table until the second question?
Assuming that these two questions must at least be randomized to make these legitimate polls (so that the order wouldn’t matter), I shot an email over to ARG to ask what was up. This is the response I got from Dick Bennett:
May 14th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Will one of you mods please post this in its own thread… I think this is hillarious! Rudy gets all kind of bad press and then this…
Rudy Goes For the Save
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
After a spate of bad publicity generated by dissing the Iowa farm family of Jerry and Deborah VonSprecken last week (including a phone call by John McCain trying to capitalize on Rudy’s mistake), the Giuliani campaign has announced that – lo and behold! – Deborah VonSprecken is Rudy’s new county chairperson in Jones County:
For Immediate Release
Monday, May 14, 2007
Rudy Giuliani Announces Deborah VonSprecken as Jones County Chair in Iowa
New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee announced today that Deborah VonSprecken from Olin, Iowa will serve as the Jones County Chair. As part of Mayor Giuliani’s Iowa leadership team Mrs. VonSprecken will spearhead the campaign’s organizational efforts in the county. The announcement followed a visit from Rudy Giuliani to the VonSprecken’s family farm in Olin where Mayor Giuliani apologized for the misunderstanding surrounding his last visit to the state. After spending nearly two hours visiting with Mr. and Mrs. VonSprecken, Deborah expressed her interest in supporting Mayor Giuliani and leading his efforts in Jones County.
“I am honored to have Deborah as part of my team in Iowa. As the hard-working owner of a family farm she understands the importance of cutting taxes and implementing fiscal discipline to grow the economy and increase opportunity,” said Mayor Rudy Giuliani. “Her support is tremendous and will be of great value to our efforts in Iowa.”
May 14th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
I am relaxed. However, making observations on a poll that’s been highly unreliable for years makes no sense.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
This poll has never even had Thompson in double digits.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
And this poll has had Gingrich in front of Thompson in every poll where they were both included. Check the page before you say that Gingrich passing them. It has Romney dropping 5 points in one poll. It is a bad poll
May 14th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
So you made bad observations, DaveG.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
National Primary
Republicans Mar Apr May 2007
Giuliani 34% 27% 28%
Gingrich 12% 10% 13%
McCain 30% 23% 24%
Romney 7% 12% 8%
F Thompson ni 9% 6%
Undecided 9% 14% 13%
Look at the numbers
May 14th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Hey Tommy,
Regarding #13, I think that Romney and Thompson supporters might end up teaming up by the end of all this. The only question is whether it will be Romney/Thompson supporters or Thompson/Romney supporters. Either ticket would make me very happy, though I prefer the former.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Dskinner, I would love a Romney/Thompson ticket, too. Unfortunately, Thompson said recently that he wasn’t interested in being Veep – just running for the top spot. We’ll see if he changes his mind if he doesn’t end up winning…
May 14th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
I don’t know. With him likely leaving L&O, anything’s possible.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
So here’s some reaction from Romney’s 60 minutes interview. They polled people who watched the interview. Here’s the link to the video. http://wbztv.com/video/?id=31568@wbz.dayport.com The results were basically, a quarter of people who watched the interview changed their opinion of him. In Iowa , 21 percent changed their mind towards him, 5 percent away from him. In New Hampshire 15% towards him, 6% away from him. In Florida 18% towards him, 4% away from him. In South Carolina 17% towards him, 5% away. In Southern states, conservatives were more inclined to favor him. And moderates in NH were more inclined to favor him afterwards. In short, he absolutely rocked every demographic. But, I guess he’s not electable. Shame.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
HeavyM,
You will hear that answer from anyone who is running for POTUS. I think Rudy is the only candidate who really wouldn’t take VP since he is making a fortune as a speaker and since he is such a control freak.
I bet Thompson would love to be the VP but if he tells us “In the event I lose the election for the position that I haven’t even declared I am seeking I would accept the VP position”, then people may not take his run for President seriously.
May 14th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
Matt Romney is fake, he is the John Kerry of the Republican party… he will not get my vote….
May 14th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
I thought he did well in the interview. I wouldn’t take that poll to seriously either. It’s the same poll that said Rudy won the debate last time, but he did a very good job.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Can we get the Jakes to distinguish themselves with a first letter of the last name. There are two of another name as well and it would be nice if they did that also.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Cool Jake. Luckily, people who see him on programs like 60 minutes, appear to be more then 3 times more likely to like him more afterwards, then like him less. So, I guess even without your vote he appears capable of “flip-flopping, soullessly, fakely, panderingly” all the way to the nomination.
I really wonder about the sort of cognitive dissonance that occurs in Rudy’s supporters. It’s really pretty baffling. Candidate A lives a stellar personal life, by virtually any measure, volunteers literally thousands upon thousands of hours, indeed volunteers the last 8 years of his life without collecting a red cent for his efforts, and he becomes a soulless, rudderless, immoral, fake, flip-floppper when he changes a few positions. But when a candidate cheats on his wife multiple times, divorces her on TV, wanders capitalizes financially off of the greatest disaster on American soil through a speaking tour at hundreds of thousands of dollars a speech, be becomes a patron saint who can do no wrong after he does exactly the same thing. I’m willing to work quite hard to get Romney elected president. But I’m seriously considering not engaging people on this “fake” issue anymore. Because reason is incapable of reaching them.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
New Harris/Wall Street Journal Poll out:
online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117916666601902204-Tr_mfP1LQHtcPvwUuctOKOU2iCY_20070613.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top
May 14th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Abortion, Guns, Immigration… all flips…. then add Romney care… No thanks… he would get killed in the general.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Doesn’t seem to reliable either, I could be wrong though
Potential Nominee April May
Rudy Giuliani 39% 38%
John McCain 18% 18%
Fred Thompson 13% 18%
Newt Gingrich 9% 9%
Mitt Romney 14% 8%
Tommy Thompson 1% 2%
Tom Tancredo 1% 2%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 1% 1%
Duncan Hunter 1% 1%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore * 1%
Chuck Hagel * 1%
May 14th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Doesn’t seem to reliable either, I could be wrong though:
Potential Nominee April May
Rudy Giuliani 39% 38%
John McCain 18% 18%
Fred Thompson 13% 18%
Newt Gingrich 9% 9%
Mitt Romney 14% 8%
Tommy Thompson 1% 2%
Tom Tancredo 1% 2%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 1% 1%
Duncan Hunter 1% 1%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore * 1%
Chuck Hagel * 1%
May 14th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Tommy… that is great poll, WSJ has always been good…. once again… Romney back in the single digits.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Doesn’t seem to reliable either; I could be wrong though
Potential Nominee April May
Rudy Giuliani 39% 38%
John McCain 18% 18%
Fred Thompson 13% 18%
Newt Gingrich 9% 9%
Mitt Romney 14% 8%
May 14th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Giuliani Still Leads GOP Pack,
Actor Fred Thompson Inches Up
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE
May 15, 2007
As primary season nears, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains atop the ranks of Republican presidential hopefuls. But an as-yet-undeclared candidate, actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, has elbowed his way into the top tier of potential nominees and now rivals Arizona Sen. John McCain in popularity, the latest survey from Harris Interactive shows.
Among those who said they expect to vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses, 38% said they would be most likely to vote for Mr. Giuliani. His closest rivals, according to the poll, were Arizona Sen. John McCain and Mr. Thompson, each drawing the support of 18% of the respondents.
Mr. Thompson’s popularity comes despite the fact that he has not indicated whether he will actually seek the presidency, and some have interpreted it as a sign of Republican discontent with the current field of candidates. A late April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that just 53% of Republicans express satisfaction with their field, while 33% are dissatisfied. In the same poll, 78% of Democrats said they were satisfied with their current crop of candidates.
The new Harris poll also suggests that the front-runner in the Republican fundraising race, Mitt Romney, has seen his popularity flag in recent weeks. During the first quarter, Mr. Romney raised $20.7 million in political contributions, $6 million more than Mr. Giuliani. But according to the recent poll from Harris, only 8% of respondents who expect to vote in Republican primaries indicated that they would be most likely to vote for the former Massachusetts governor. In April, 14% of respondents indicated he would be their top choice.
With a slate of 13 potential Republican nominees, most garnered slim shares of support. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — who hasn’t declared his candidacy — was the top pick of 9% of respondents. And Tommy Thompson, a former Wisconsin governor who also served as the head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, was the top choice of 2%. He was tied with Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has sought to make illegal immigration his signature issue. All other candidates, including Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, were listed as the top pick of just 1% of respondents.
Among the larger voting population Mr. Giuliani also leads the pack of Republicans, the survey showed. Some 58% of Republicans who were polled indicated they would “consider voting” for him for president, compared with 44% who said they would consider supporting the next most popular Republican on the list, former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Mr. Powell isn’t a candidate and isn’t seen as a likely contender.
Republican voters’ first choice for president
“There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote?”
Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus
Potential Nominee April May
Rudy Giuliani 39% 38%
John McCain 18% 18%
Fred Thompson 13% 18%
Newt Gingrich 9% 9%
Mitt Romney 14% 8%
Tommy Thompson 1% 2%
Tom Tancredo 1% 2%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 1% 1%
Duncan Hunter 1% 1%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore * 1%
Chuck Hagel * 1%
May 14th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
Tommy, just because you don’t like what you see in polls doesn’t mean it isn’t reliable…
May 14th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
I don’t see how Romney dropped so much. I figured FDT was on his way up, that’s why I took DaveG to task, but I thought Romney had momentum as well. I’ll wait on the Rasmussen poll to be sure of anything though.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Nope Jake. Wrong again. With the exception of abortion, all of those have been rebutted ad nauseum. As I said. Reason and Rudy supporters are distant acquaintances.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:15 pm
Jake; I’m a Thompson supporter, so I should be thrilled. But I don’t buy it yet.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Methodology: This Harris Poll was conducted online among 2,523 adults May 3-10. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. With a pure probability sample of 2,523 adults, one could say with 95% probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-2 percentage points.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
Tommy… people can see right past Romney… He is way to manicured. Is he a good guy… yes, but he is spending the most money and is GOING DOWN in the polls. He is running ads non stop and he still isn’t getting anywhere.
Matt… say what you want, the polls speak for themselves… Romney is a sinking ship.
It’s a three way race between Rudy, McCain and guy not even in it yet.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
I’m unwilling to write Romney off. He’s got too much going for him right now, and a lot of publicity. Is he my guy? No, but I think he’s far from out of it.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
and my reasons below:
Tommy Thompson 1% 2%
Tom Tancredo 1% 2%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 1% 1%
Duncan Hunter 1% 1%
Mike Huckabee 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore * 1%
Chuck Hagel * 1%
May 14th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
I don’t understand why Romney’s supporters have a reputation on this site of being blinded by their support of Romney. Romney’s supporters defend their candidate (who has been the biggest target with false statements on the site) and post postive news about Romney. We acknowledge that he has flaws, but if our focus was his flaws then we probably wouldn’t be supporting him.
Clearly many Rudybots are blinded by their support. I think there is a great case to be made for Rudy’s candidacy, but instead of anyone making that case all the Rudybots do is attack other candidates.
Anytime a Rudybot is confronted with negative news or comments the responses are the following, in order of frequency:
1 – If you don’t elect Rudy we will be stuck with Hillary
2 – Nobody else can win
3 – Romney is a flip flopper
4 – Nobody else can fight the terrorists
5 – Nobody will vote for a Mormon
6 – We need to move left to win
7 – Random attack of Thompson or McCain
I would love it if the Rudybots actually responded directly to the criticisms and/or made an argument (with supporting evidence) as to why Rudy is great. Reminder, the “Nobody else can beat Hillary” argument has been shown to be false for several reasons.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
DSkinner…. I’m cool with Romney at this point.
But have you forgotten Jason?
May 14th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
To be honest, I’ve pretty much written off the GOP in 08′. The battle for the soul of the GOP is going to be cataclysmic, and I’m not sure anyone’s going to be able to heal the rifts it creates. I’d say it’s depressing, but somehow it’s invigorating. Thomas Jefferson talked about refreshing the tree of liberty with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It’s a gruesome image, but is perfect metaphorically. I have no question that if Rudy wins the nomination, a pro-life, conservative, third party candidate will arise. And I have no doubt that this will do more to return us to a sane set of principles, and a logical examination of candidates, then any 4 years in the presidency can manage. And if he doesn’t win the nomination…well, that’s a revolution of sorts as well. Because we’ll have enunciated clearly, in the words of a great man, that “there is a price we will not pay”.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
I think we could be in for a 1976 replay. One candidate will challenge the consensus down to the wire, only to come back in 4 years much stronger.
I hope not, but it might happen
May 14th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
Tommy,
I kind of always assumed Jason was the unnamed Romneybot who fulfilled the stereotypes. I haven’t paid enough attention to his posts to say for sure, but the majority of Romney supporters certainly are willing to acknowledge his faults. With Rudy’s supporters it feels like the reverse.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I just love when people accuse American Research Group with some thinly veiled preference for McCain when ARG’s own president, Dick Bennett, said in January that “John McCain is tanking. That’s the big thing [we're finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.” Bennett says ARG is finding a similar trend in other states polled, including early primary battlegrounds like Iowa and Nevada. “We’re finding this everywhere,” he says.
Then two days later ARG came out with a poll that completely contradicted Bennett’s own words (McCain was down 2% in NH to 27% but Rudy dropped 5%).
May 14th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I agree with you. Most of you have been fair.
May 14th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
LJ, I think that poll now tends to skew in other directions. That was just one example I used from a year ago to how it could be false
May 15th, 2007 at 1:10 am
Gotta disagree with DaveG: ARG polls have been proven to be complete crap.