GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Okay, first things first: who in the world is Datamar? Not quite sure, and this is their first foray into polling the 2008 race, so take it with a grain of salt. That also means there’s no trendlines to report. Here’s the GOP side of things (PDF warning):
Datamar Florida GOP Primary
Giuliani - 27.0%
F Thompson - 22.4%
Romney - 17.6%
McCain - 11.9%
Huckabee - 3.1%
Paul - 2.1%
Brownback - 2.1%
Hunter - 1.6%
T Thompson - 1.5%
Tancredo - 1.3%
Gilmore - 0.3%
Undecided - 3.3%Survey was of 607 likely voters, taken May 14-18, and has an MoE of 4%.
On the Dem side, Edwards actually leads Hillary by 2 points, 26-24, with Obama at 19 and Richardson at 7.
Obviously, some fishy things going on… Fred Thompson being that high and John McCain being that low not the least of them. This is also significantly higher for Romney than previous Florida polls. Or, perhaps this poll picked up on some trends…? We’ll have to wait and see. Meanwhile, cut it apart in the comments section.
May 24th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Who are these people? I don’t doubt that Thompson will likely win in FL, or at the least be top 2, but that quickly?
May 24th, 2007 at 10:44 am
It says that it samples likely voters. I’d let Republius look it over for his approval, since he understands polls better than I do, but it looks pretty legit. I wonder how the recent ones were calculated.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Tommy,
Datamar is based out of El Cajon, California. The only other presidential polling they conducted this year was in California, three months ago.
Here are the results of their GOP California poll, which was released on February 15th, and is now of no relevance:
Rudy Giuliani 40.9%
John McCain 17.4%
Mitt Romney 10.5%
Duncan Hunter 5.9%
May 24th, 2007 at 11:01 am
If Romney starts to gain ground in Florida, then Giuliani will have to devote even more resources to states he’d figured locked up. I would love to see McCain and Rudy just ceding IA/NH to Romney, and then try to go with a state-to-state strategy - one that almost never works.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:08 am
Kevin, Florida has never been a lock for anybody. It’s in the south, although not as strongly southern as others, so it’s going to be more difficult to gain solid support there than elsewhere.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:22 am
I don’t know how reliable Datamar is either, but I don’t see anything fishy with a strong showing for Fred Thompson. He is, after all, from Tennessee, and the only true southerner of the top tier (aside from Gingrich, who lacks a southern accent and probably isn’t running anyway).
As far as McCain’s low showing, remember — he tends to do better with moderates/ independants. In most states, he gives Rudy a run for his money for those voters, but in Florida a good chunk of the moderate/ independant voters consist of a large number of New York expatriates, so Rudy gets a much larger share of that segment of the electorate than he does in other states.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Sean P, my surprise came because in other FL polls, Thompson has come in at 10, 9, 5, and 6 percent. 22 seems a little far out there to me.
Likewise, McCain has clocked in at 21, 15 several times, 20, and 18, so being under 12 now seems fishy as well.
I think it’s probably safe to say Romney’s in double digits in Florida at least, now, given the last four polls showing 11, 14, 5, and 18. The 5% is pretty clearly the outlier in that batch.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Obviously this poll looks good for Romney, but I’m extremely suspicious of it. It polled only 2.3% Hispanics. That’s simply abysmal for a state with as large a percentage of Hispanics as Florida. It also polled 51.2% of people with graduate degrees. That seems extremely high as well. Seems like it ought to be junked for those two flaws alone.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Sean P,
Keep in mind that Florida is a closed primary state, which means registered independents are ineligible to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary.
According to last month’s Quinnipiac poll, the favorables/unfavorables for Giuliani and McCain amongst independents are nearly identical in the Sunshine State.
Giuliani
Favorable 54%
Unfavorable 17%
Net +37
McCain
Favorable 57%
Unfavorable 20%
Net +37
May 24th, 2007 at 11:51 am
I was under the impression that Florida’s more moderate reputation, and loads of NYC transplants had given rise to a sure-to-be-Rudy mindset.
I live in Florida right now (law school, yipee) and have for the last five years. I know North Florida is not Rudy country, but South Florida is. I suppose most of the GOP lives above Orlando, and not below it, so he may have a rough time in a closed primary.
Either way, Romney gaining ground in yet another state poll.
May 24th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
FL is a must-win for Rudy. If someone makes a serious challenge to him it’ll be an 8-figure expenditure.
May 24th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Florida is a closed primary state where from my observations the Republican party’s moderates are mostly Cuban or native South Floridians. New York transplants have very low registrations as Republicans (most are independent or Democrats).
Romney shouldn’t have trouble with the flip-flopping charge as both major GOP gubernatorial candidates (Crist and Gallagher) did the same thing but dominated the primary.
May 24th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
HeavyM, You misreported Thompson’s numbers. They are 22, 10, 9, 13.
May 24th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
[...] has a poll of the 2008 GOP Florida primary. Race42008’s HeavyM says, "who in the world is [...]
May 24th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Someone made note of the fact that few Hispanics were polled. Are Hispanics lining up behind someone in particular? How many Hispanics are going to be voting in the GOP primary, even in Florida, anyway, and if they’re not lining up behind a particular candidate (though I imagine McCain would be the top choice), will it really make that much of a difference? It’s *not* going to make much statistical difference, I imagine. I don’t think it’s that big a deal. This poll seems valid enough. And remember, there is that little thing called a margin of error, either way.
May 24th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
[...] has a poll of the 2008 GOP Florida primary. Race42008’s HeavyM says, "who in the world is [...]
May 24th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
I once dated a Latina from Miami. Trust me, the Latino community in Miami is very conservative, very Republican, and will constitute a lot more than 2 percent of GOP primary voters. And a majority of poll respondents have graduate degrees? Talk about bad sample. Garbage!