The Candidates
From our pal John, the most trusted pollster of 2004 and 2006:
Zogby National GOP Primary
(numbers in parentheses from last poll in February)Giuliani - 26% (29)
McCain - 13% (20)
Romney - 10% (9)
F Thompson - 10% (7)
Huckabee - 4% (7)
Brownback - 3% (4)
All others - 1% or less
Undecided - 26% (19)Survey was of 378 likely GOP primary voters, done May 17-20, and has an MoE of 5.1%.
Giuliani is down, but still retains his first place lead as McCain crashes - only 3 points ahead of both Romney and Thompson now. Huckabee and Brownback are moving backwards, not a desired outcome for second tier candidates, and no one else has any traction.
On the Dem side, Hillary opened up a 15-point lead on Obama, 39-24, with Edwards at 11 and Richardson back down at 2.
May 24th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Looks like McCain support is trending towards Thompson.
May 24th, 2007 at 10:58 am
How do you come to that conclusion? Thompson has been polling in the 10-13% range in the past few weeks down from where he was initially. Thats not to say they might not eventually pick him, but if anything McCain’s supporting is joining the undecided pool.
May 24th, 2007 at 10:58 am
I watch polls everyday. Have for years. Zogby tended to a slight Demo bias in his results over the years. But is clearly in the ballpark.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:06 am
UGA Dawg. Look at the trends in parenthesis. Thompson’s up 3 points. He was at 7% last time. He is the only candidate to take a rise over 1%.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Undecided’s took a rise of 7%
May 24th, 2007 at 11:10 am
HeavyM,
While it’s true that Giuliani’s support in the Zogby poll has dropped by three points, he didn’t just retain his first place lead. His lead expanded by nearly 50%, from nine to 13 points, and Rudy’s support is now double that of John McCain, his nearest competitor.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:19 am
Rudy will carry Cuban-Republican Miami, New York/Jewish/Italian everywhere else in south florida, and will split the rest of the state with Thompson(if he runs), McCain (if he is still in it) and Romney. Therefore: RUDY WINS FLORIDA!
May 24th, 2007 at 11:34 am
Rasmussen has come out with a New Jersey poll that gauges the impact of Michael Bloomberg as a third-party candidate. This poll surveyed 500 likely voters.
Hillary Clinton 42%
Rudy Giuliani 39%
Michael Bloomberg 13%
John Edwards 44%
Michael Bloomberg 23%
Mitt Romney 20%
Barack Obama 43%
Fred Thompson 27%
Michael Bloomberg 19%
May 24th, 2007 at 11:36 am
I think Thompson will have to win Iowa or South Carolina for him to even matter significantly in Florida. If he loses South Carolina I think he’s done. I’m making the assumption SC moves ahead now that Florida has moved their election up.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:39 am
I’m not suprised to see McCain down 7 pts here. He’s really hurt his chances with this McCain-Kennedy immigration bill.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Why is Rasmussen still conducting polls with that lefty tool Bloomberg? They’re utterly useless, since the majority of people still think he’s a Republican.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Remember for most americans, Bloomberg is a Republican modarate in the line of Rudy. Wait to he pushes Gun Control in the general and see who he takes the votes from.
May 24th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Matt, because he may very well run and drop a billion bucks. I hadn’t seen a 3way poll with him before. Had you?
May 24th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
I suppose we could say that the scenario would be similar for NY using the polls Argo provided in #8? NY and NJ are pretty much interweaved, right? If that is the case, then ouch! Rudy really cannot claim that he could bring Mid-Altanta states to the red side if Bloomie does jump in.
May 24th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
The Gallup Poll
Despite Campaign, Familiarity With Candidates Has Not Changed Substantially
Giuliani remains most positively evaluated; Clinton and Romney least so
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/Default.aspx?ci=27673&VERSION=p
May 24th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
The New Republic
WHY THE GOP’S FUTURE BELONGS TO RUDY.
Party Boy
by Thomas B. Edsall
http://www.tnr.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20070521&s=edsall052107
May 24th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
This poll has a margin of error of +/ 3.2 percentage points, which means Huckabee could also be at 10% now, or still at 7%. Just FYI.
May 24th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
If Rudy wasnt in the picture, I would want the best man standing, the guy who really sticks up for America: JOHNJ BOLTON.
May 24th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
oops, JOHN BOLTON
May 24th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Paul, Huckabee is at 4%. He’s dropped 3% since last month.
May 24th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Huckabee has never been at 7 in a national primary poll.
May 25th, 2007 at 8:23 am
where is ron pauL?
i do not see him in the zogby poll.
i want dr. paul in the poll.
he is the only man worth voting for!
May 25th, 2007 at 9:26 am
Sorry, Dawn, but Ron Paul was included in this poll. He just falls under the “1% or less” category, being the only candidate to receive less than 1% support.
Looks like all the gaming of internet polls isn’t quite working out for Paul supporters…
May 25th, 2007 at 11:41 am
As a true conservative who actually believes in what he claimed to stand for in 1994, why is Newt Gingrich #5? At the 2007 Herzliya Conference in Israel he called for the Mossad to conduct terro “drills” in Dallas and Pittsburgh - that’s TREASON. He continually talks about “losing a city”, always saying it like a giddy school girl. What does he know that we don’t? Doesn’t he understand that if a “terror” attack happens, that everyone will be looking at DHS, etc. as the guilty parties? The American people have woken up - “Al Qaeda” means “The Base”, from the CIA’s database of “assets” in the Middle East. Do they think we’re that dumb?
DEFEND AMERICA FIRST!