The Candidates
This is the first poll out for the 2008 Kansas primary, and the results may startle you:
Research 2000 Kansas GOP Primary
Brownback - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 13%
Giuliani - 13%
F Thompson - 7%
Gingrich - 6%
Tancredo - 2%
All others - 1% or lessSurvey was of 400 likely voters, done May 21-23, and has an MoE of 5%.
Romney plays well in red state country despite never having campaigned there, while Giuliani and McCain struggle. Additionally, this can’t bode well for Brownback, being statistically tied in his home state.
On the Dem side, Hillary leads Obama and Edwards by 5 and 6 points, respectively.
Here are the head-to-head matchups:
Research 2000 Kansas Head-to-head Matchups
- McCain - 47%
- Clinton - 31%
- McCain - 46%
- Edwards - 34%
- McCain - 46%
- Obama - 34%
- Giuliani - 46%
- Clinton - 31%
- Giuliani - 45%
- Edwards - 34%
- Giuliani - 45%
- Obama - 34%
- Romney - 47%
- Clinton - 31%
- Romney - 46%
- Edwards - 33%
- Romney - 46%
- Obama - 32%
In other words, all three GOP candidates have the same lead, within the MoE, over all their respective Democrat opponents.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:05 am
I think this is outrageously wrong as in the straw poll from the Bloggers it clearly shows RON PAUL BY A LANDSLIDE.
We will keep fighting till Ron gets the due recognition in these obviously scammed propaganda poll results. He will win and that is fact.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Does this mean anything? I guess, depending on how well you think Kansans know Giuliani’s sociall and culturallly liberal record, this could be seen as very good news for Giuliani.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Ms. Erickson,
assuming yours was not a parody post, may I suggest a heavy investment at Intrade? You could make a killing.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:08 am
HeavyM - Given the error rate, I don’ think “Giuliani and McCain struggle” is an appropriate interpretation.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Wow… post #1 is dripping with so much irony we may need a cleanup crew in here… scammed poll results, eh?
May 25th, 2007 at 10:13 am
OKcougar, true, Giuliani and McCain are statistically tied with Sam and Mitt, but… it is not exactly a walk in the park for them as it has been with other polls from many other states. They all started out well ahead due to their national ID, only to see their trend going down. Here, the polls start the top 4 approximately the same. It does not bond well for them as they will have to pour some cash to gain some upward movement. So, yes, it is a “struggle” in a sense.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:25 am
OKcougar, I see what you’re saying, but the MoE doesn’t automatically make this an even race.
MoE says that Rudy and McCain could be anywhere from 8 to 18% in Kansas right now, that Mitt can be anywhere from 12 to 22%, and that Brownback can be anywhere from 13 to 23%.
However, the nature of MoE is that the further away you get from the actual reported number, the less likely those results are. So, for Rudy or McCain to be at 18% is possible, but a statistical stretch… or, to put it another way, to say Rudy and McCain are both at 18% is twice as unlikely.
It would also be unlikely to say McCain or Rudy is really at 15% and Romney is really at 15%, or some such scenario, because again you have to take into account the statistical effect on moving both (or all three!) of their numbers.
Hope that makes sense.Maybe econ grad stud can help explain it a little more effectively…?
May 25th, 2007 at 10:29 am
I have been doing a little surfing on the Kansas Primary… it appears to be an on-again off-again type of thing… the most recent data I saw was a column in the Kansas City Star dated May 17th. That article indicated it was off… The Kansas Secretary of State Website was not informative. Is anyone up to speed on Kansas… Primary or Caucus in 08?
May 25th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Longtime lurker, first time commenter.
The interesting thing is that Kansas should be a decent bellweather on the “Mormon issue” for Romney. The religious makeup of Kansas should not be friendly territory, and yet Romney is right there with Brownback despite a lack of targeting. There may be something said for Romney putting a little effort into Kansas and burying Brownback once and for all, as his supporters seem to be among the biggest Romney detractors.
This is unqualified good news for Romney, and terrible news for Brownback, although he is currently leading.
May 25th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Huh, look at this. Romney plays well in the midwest and the east and west coasts. Who’d of thought. Fantastic general election breakdowns.
May 25th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Framer,
You have two different styles of being conservative and religious in this country. There’s the Midwest style and the Southern style. Its the Southern style that has a real problem with Romney’s religion. My sense is that Kansas is more in the Midwest mode.
May 25th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
[...] think Gov. Romney can win in the heartland? Well, check out a new poll coming out of [...]
May 25th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Power rankings really need to be changed because right now it’s:
1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Fred Thompson
5. Mike Huckabee
6. Newt Gingrich
7. Duncan Hunter
8. Sam Brownback
9. Tom Tancredo
10. Tommy Thompson
11. Jim Gilmore
12. Ron Paul
May 25th, 2007 at 2:54 pm
HeavyM, I’ll try.
The margin of error is the range of values (say Rudy’s % of support) that 95% of the time are expected to contain the actual value(Rudy’s real % of support).
Now a margin of error can be calculated for lower probabilities. If you want to know the range of values you’d expect 80% of the time your margin of error shrinks.
Example:
The odds that Brownback has more actual support in this poll than Rudy is 95%.
May 25th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
“MoE says that Rudy and McCain could be anywhere from 8 to 18% in Kansas right now, that Mitt can be anywhere from 12 to 22%, and that Brownback can be anywhere from 13 to 23%.”
As the other resident persnickity a-hole with the graduate stat background, let me make a slight modification. MoE doesn’t say that Rudy and McCain could be anywhere from 8 to 18% in Kansas right now. It could be just above zero percent, it could be just less than 100%. Such is the nature of sampling that it is possible that a random call could unearth every Rudy voter in the state when there are only 50 or so of them, or it could overlook completely a whole swath of Rudy voters out there. It’s just very unlikely.
May 25th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
SO there is a different evangelical Mormon bias in Alabama than in the Midwest, where they actually have a history with Mormonism? I don’t buy that at all.
Now an added bias against Yankees I would believe.
May 25th, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Just a note… I have a Ph.D in Marketing and teach graduate level market research methods. I concur with Sean in #15, the the actual observed margins depend on the representativeness of the sample, something we do not know based on this post. I believe that the best statement that can be made is “if the election were held today, we are uncertain of who would actually win”
EGS makes a valid statistical point too. Shrinking the margin of error would lead to different judgments, but also different confidence levels. But confidence levels in opinion polls are an uncertain business. EGS’ statement should be revised as follows “If the sample of 400 accurately represents Republican voters who will actually vote in February, the we are just slightly less than 95% confident that Senator Brownback will have a higher percentage than Mayor Giuliani. In either event it is still not appropriate to characterize Giuliani and McCain as struggling. Especially given the early time and the numerous events that will unfold between now and the vote.
May 25th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Okcougar hence why I said Brownback was 95% chance ahead of Rudy “in this poll”. The extent to which a poll is sampling the population of primary voters as opposed to some overlapping population is unknowable without some demographic breakdowns.
That’s why I hate polls that don’t include breakdowns by gender, age, region, likelihood to vote, and other distinguishing characteristics.
May 25th, 2007 at 9:19 pm
I also believe, though I can’t recall this exactly, that because the answers are all skewed to the teens, the margin of error shrinks.
May 25th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
You’re right Sean. The margin of error is usually the “maximum margin of error” which exists near the 50% level. Of course other uncertainties in a poll can raise the margin of error besides what the sample size would suggest.
May 26th, 2007 at 11:28 am
guys… in the head-to -head, MoE is irelevant as the sampling is the same. this shows some people will support McCain & Romney but not Giulanni…now granted, it’s 1%, but if that increases as this goes on, it might be bigger.
May 27th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
Your web site here is nothing but a sham. Can’t find any information on Ron Paul to do a bio?
Who Is Ron Paul?
Dr. Paul is the leading advocate for freedom in our nation’s capital. As a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dr. Paul tirelessly works for limited constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, and a return to sound monetary policies. He is known among his congressional colleagues and his constituents for his consistent voting record. Dr. Paul never votes for legislation unless the proposed measure is expressly authorized by the Constitution. In the words of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, Dr. Paul is the “one exception to the Gang of 535″ on Capitol Hill.
Brief Overview of Congressman Paul’s Record
* He has never voted to raise taxes.
* He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
* He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership.
* He has never voted to raise congressional pay.
* He has never taken a government-paid junket.
* He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch.
* He voted against the Patriot Act.
* He voted against regulating the Internet.
* He voted against the Iraq war.
* He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program.
* He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year.
Congressman Paul introduces numerous pieces of substantive legislation each year, probably more than any single member of Congress.
My Issues
* Debt and Taxes
* American Independence and Sovereignty
* War and Foreign Policy
* Border Security and Immigration Reform
* Privacy and Personal Liberty
* Property Rights and Eminent Domain
Learn More
* Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign Committee’s Website
* Congressman Ron Paul’s Website
* Past articles by Congressman Ron Paul on LewRockwell.com
May 27th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Now you can include his bio. I won’t charge you for the help.
May 27th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Biographies
* Bill Frist
* Chuck Hagel
* Condoleezza Rice
* Duncan Hunter
* George Allen
* George Pataki
* John McCain
* Mike Huckabee
* Mitt Romney
* Newt Gingrich
* Rudy Giuliani
* Sam Brownback
* Tom Tancredo
* Tommy Thompson
* WHERE IS CONGRESSMAN DR. RON PAUL ?
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