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Defying recent poll movement, here is a bright spot in your day if you are a McCainiac:
American Research Group GOP Iowa Caucus
- McCain – 25% (26)
- Giuliani – 23% (19)
- Romney – 16% (14)
- Gingrich – 8% (8)
- F. Thompson – 6% (13)
- Brownback – 3% (1)
- All others – 2% or less
- Undecided – 10% (13)
American Research Group GOP New Hampshire Primary
- McCain – 30% (29)
- Romney – 23% (24)
- Giuliani – 21% (17)
- Gingrich – 4% (4)
- F. Thompson – 3% (7)
- All others – 1% or less
- Undecided – 16% (14)
American Research Group GOP SC Primary
- McCain – 32% (36)
- Giuliani – 23% (23)
- F. Thompson – 13% (10)
- Romney – 10% (6)
- Gingrich – 6% (6)
- All others – 1% or less
- Undecided – 11% (12)
On the Dem side, it’s Hillary, Edwards and Obama in that order in each of the three states.
For your comparison: the last four Iowa polls had McCain at 16, 16, 18, and 19%; Giuliani was at 17, 17, 18, and 18%; Romney was at 16, 19, 20, and 30%; and Fred Thompson was at 9, 9, and 10%. The ARG numbers seem slightly off from those, but make of them what you will.
Likewise for New Hampshire: the two other polls done in May show Romney with 30 and 32%, McCain with 19 and 22%, Rudy with 19 and 23%, and Fred with 6 and 11%. The only one of those that looks close is Rudy’s.
Either ARG has picked up some recent, major movement, or these polls may end up being outliers. We’ll have to wait and see what the other polls have to say.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
Pollnography!
May 29th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
For my two-cents, I believe that McCain/Rudy/Romney are essentially tied in Iowa and NH right now at between 17%-19% each.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
Wow, nice jump for Rudy.
The big story is the Democrat side where Obama dropped 8 points in Iowa….
May 29th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
I attribute McCain’s resurgence to his impressive new PAC:
Enforcement-First, Immigration-Restrictionists for McCain!
Their motto is “Pro-enforcement, Anti-amnesty, Pro-McCain.”
I’ve heard the We Hate McCain-Feingold Committee to Elect John McCain has also played a big part.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
Although I will say that ARG is based in NH, so you’d think that they would be able to poll their home state.
But it is hard to just wave off how different their polls are than everyone else’s. McCain always does between 5%-10% better in an ARG poll.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
KAvon,
Could very well be, but RCPhas Romney ahead in both, with this poll included.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Bad news for Obama and F. Thompson… Good news for Rudy, McCain, so so news for Romney.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
My understanding is that ARG includes independents and Rebpublicans that are likely to vote in the Republican primary. If so, this would explain why it is different than the other polls that only include Republicans that are likely to vote in the Republican primary. I guess McCain really appeals to non-Republicans (not a surprise).
May 29th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Just the fact that Edwards leads Obama in every state (and by good margins) in the ARG polls gives me pause about their credibility…
It will be interesting to see if these are outliers, or if McCain’s appeal is really rebounding this quickly. My money is one the former.
May 29th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Thompson has officially formed an exploratory committee. Details coming
May 29th, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Kavon,
why are comments on the Rudy SoCon post closed?
May 29th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Tommy,
Link??!!
May 29th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/05/another_sign_of.html
May 29th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Official word early next week. He’s officially started raising money.
May 29th, 2007 at 6:24 pm
“why are comments on the Rudy SoCon post closed?”
Probably because it’s an oxymoron!
-justkidding
May 29th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
It is!
I mean, while Rudy likes reducing abortions, he favors the right to choose.
and he is not pro-family—he’s made 3 and broke 2 (ie 2 divorces)
May 29th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
and fred in is good…he’ll be tested now.
May 29th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
i agree with the first half of #15, and all of #16. It is an oxymoron. And the comments are doubtless closed to prevent half of us howling about it…
May 29th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
JayPe,
check out the next post up.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
[...] tip to Race42008.com, who first alerted Campaignia to these new numbers in Poll Watch: ARG GOP Primary in IA, NH, and SC:“Defying recent poll movement, here is a bright spot in your day if you are a McCainiac: [...]
May 29th, 2007 at 9:19 pm
Just some thoughts-
I should note that whether Senator Thompson opts to dive in at this point or not, he cannot possibly capture the nomination. He might influence the outcome – it appears that his support is coming from Giuliani, primarily – but he can’t win. Here would be the simple reason:
It’s too late for this cycle.
Even if he has BEGUN to raise money, McCain was being pilloried for raising “only” $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2007. Thompson could not possibly reach the league of the Big Three in campaign coffers. He has no organization, and all of the top Republican campaign talent is already signed up with one of the ten other candidates.
It’s surprising, I think, that he’s thinking about jumping in so late. Because if we were having this discussion even six months ago, Thompson might have had a real chance. But it’s took late for this cycle (at least in my view).
Thoughts are welcome.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
Regarding the IOWA POLL:
I want ARG to explain to me what an “Independant likely Caucus-goer” is? Independants CAN’T PARTICIPATE IN THE IOWA GOP CAUCUS. McCain got nearly half of these independants and they are responsible for a full 2% or slightly more.
This is maybe an obvious sign that this firm isn’t doing the most rigorous polling around.
Also, Tommy Thompson at only 2%? All the other polls have him between 4-7% and he’s been working Iowa HARD and it’s been showing in the polls. He’s from neighboring Wisconsin and might just get a top 4 finish at the Ames Straw Poll (depending who participates). Don’ think they screened very well when polling.
Not too sure about the absolute numbers in this poll, but, as always, we may make something of the trend lines. See next entries
May 29th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Iowa:
McCain’s trend is steady since Dec . . . but down since March.
Giuliani’s trend is down since Dec, and way down from Feb . . . but he did have a little “statistical correction” after a 10% loss from March to April
Romney’s had a steady trend up 6% in Dec to 16% now–that’s pretty strong.
Fred Thompson is down big, but this will probably undergo a bit of a statistical correction upwards next month (just like Rudy had).
RON PAUL CONTINTUES TO GET 0% . . . but his folks sure can make a lot of noise online!!
Who are the 6-9 Iowans in this poll who want Gilmore? They should be tracked down and punished.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
New Hampshire:
30% Independant’s included (and they should be here in the open primary . . . though many think that many Indy’s will be drawn over into a tight Democratic primary vote that day instead . . . or at least cast their anti-Hillary consciece vote). McCain still leads strongly with Indy’s, but Romney does slightly better than Rudy)
All top three amazingly close among Republicans (25%, 24%, and 24%).
Trends:
McCain: Very stable since Dec. with a recent recovery from 23% to 30%.
Giuliani: Slight downward trend overall, but a recent mild correction/recovery upwards.
Romney: Prety strong and steady upward trend overall
F. Thompson: 3% . . . uh-oh! That’s a LOT of work to do. Don’t see this southerner selling well in NH. Downward trend shows that the initial idea of a of a Fred Thompson candidacy sounds better than the impending reality (same downward trend as in Iowa).
May 29th, 2007 at 10:13 pm
South Carolina Trends:
McCain: fairly steady with a slight recent tick downwards
Giuliani: Mild downward trend.
Romney: Moderate upward trend (or just an aberration?) into Double Digits.
Thopmson: Will obviously show strong in the South, but will he hang in if he’s not top three in Iowa and New Hampshire? (which is looking pretty hard for him to accomplish with this late of an entry). The only way he could would be to try to compete against Giuliani for some big states on Super Teusday, but that will be a difficult task. I’m not seeing any strong strategy/plan for them.
Huckabee: ONLY 1% for a southern governor who did well in the SC debate? Not good news at all for the Huckster.