The Candidates
For those of you who need an Ames Straw Poll primer, may I humbly suggest this piece I penned last month as a great place to start.
All the debating, inter-campaign turmoil and decision making of whether or not to compete at Ames this August will come to a head on June 15, just a little over two weeks away. That’s when the bidding takes place for the real estate outside of the event center — you know, the piece of land that candidates have to set up tents, music stages, even carnival rides, and hand out campaign flyers/buttons/hats/DVD’s, etc.
In 2000, George Bush won the bidding and paid $63,000 for the real estate closest to the front door of the event - obviously the best location, if you’ve got the cash for it. My guess is the price for that piece of land will be above six digits this time around.
But what this means is folks like Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, whose campaigns have publicly been speculating about skipping the straw poll, will have to decide by June 15 if they want a spot there. And if they’re going to compete, they’re going to want a spot. When the bidding is over that day, candidates will have until June 25 to cut the check to the IA GOP, and the checks are nonrefundable. So two weeks from now, we will know who will be competing at Ames and who won’t be.
My hope is both Rudy and Fred choose to compete. My prediction, however, is that just Thompson will. Thompson will have lowered expectations going into the event since he has had far less time to prepare and get a ground organization going in Iowa, and lowered expectations are good things - because when they are beaten, it equals positive press time. Giuliani will take the safe road and not risk his candidacy on the social conservatives who show up at Ames - and I can’t really blame him for that. Out of any candidate, he has the most to gain and the most to lose from the straw poll, and by sitting it out he will be able to avoid those extremes.
So what are your predictions? Who’s in? Who’s out? Who will win the bidding for the chunk of land by the front door? And who ultimately will win Ames? We’re roughly 70 days away now…
May 31st, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Rudy and Fred aren’t doing Ames…. McCain will then decide not to do it either…. 3 out of the top 4 out… Ames is worthless
May 31st, 2007 at 5:07 pm
It looks like they’ll be forced into taking part anyway.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/68181.html
May 31st, 2007 at 5:08 pm
“It’s our party, and we decide whose name is on the ballot,” Iowa GOP executive director Chuck Laudner told the Web site politico.com Thursday. “I predict (Thompson) will be on the ballot one way or another.” Aides said Wednesday Thompson will likely join the race for the Republican nomination in July.
Laudner said aides to Thompson and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani have already called about the straw poll, which he said has helped thin the herd of candidates in past primary seasons.
May 31st, 2007 at 5:09 pm
[...] post by HeavyM and software by Elliott [...]
May 31st, 2007 at 5:10 pm
I’ll bet Rudy and Fred are out. Jake might be right about McCain too, but I tend to think that he’s in. Romney will get the spot by the door, as he’s shown that he’s not afraid to spend money to make money.
And of course Romney will win it, followed by a peeing contest from the other three candidates saying why it doesn’t matter.
May 31st, 2007 at 5:18 pm
I don’t know if either Rudy or Fred have definitely said they will not compete, and I hope not. I think it would be rather cowardly on the part of Fred and Rudy. Just buck up, do your best, and take it like a man. The electorate isn’t stupid; we understand that Giuliani has some disadvantages there since it’s a rather conservative bunch, and the Fred will have problems because he’s getting in so late. Those weaknesses can be forgiven. But what does it say about a candidate who doesn’t have the guts to ante up when their constituency would like them to? To sit out everything theat isn’t catered to their strengths? It reminds me of the Democratic candidates ducking a debate on FOX. Not cool.
May 31st, 2007 at 5:41 pm
So I hear a lot of chatter about how Thompson can possibly run a successful campaign. But what can he actually do as president? He achieved nothing great as a Senator…unless you consider McCain-Feingold an accomplishment. If he doesn’t have any experience as a leader of any organization, had no major accomplishments as a Senator, why should I think that he should be able to lead a country? Some compare Thompson to Reagan…one difference, Reagan had experience running things, the State of California. Couple this with reports from different sources that Thompson is “slow” and “lazy.” How can I trust the guy can lead a country?
May 31st, 2007 at 5:57 pm
Whether to campaign in Iowa isn’t simply question.
1) Competing will eat up most candidates funds leaving little for later states.
2) Iowa awards no delegates.
3) The only media advantage is to the candidates who beats expectations and is in the top 3.
Given the compact schedule and lack of a front runner, momentum from Iowa ought to be a lot less important than in any modern primary.
Unless you have a bottomless campaign fund competing or a good chance at beating expectations, Iowa is waste.
May 31st, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Econ,
I have to disagree with you. Your analyses totally ignores history. 13 of the last 14 nominees from both parties have won either Iowa, NH or both. (The only person who didn’t was Clinton in a year where Iowa didn’t count because Tom Harkin was running so all the candidates skipped Iowa. He came in a very suprising 2nd in NH (earning him the label “The Comeback Kid”) and Tsongas who won NH dropped out shortly thereafter for health reasons, leaving Clinton as the presumptive nominee with the momentum.
There is going to be a week of free media for whoever wins (assuming it stays close enough that nobody can win Iowa and still lose the expectations game at the same time). When everyone else is scrambling to explain why Iowa doesn’t matter and why they can still win, one person won’t have to spin at all and instead will get the first look from all the undecideds and from defectors of candidates who are effectively eliminated in Iowa.
Kerry went from single digits nationally to nearly 50% overnight based on winning Iowa. Even if there had been a national primary the next day Iowa would have given the election to Kerry. I think the compressed schedule makes these early states even more important because there isn’t time to spin or for momentum to wear off.
Also, whoever finishes 4th in Iowa will have no chance at winning (unless they are very close to the winner in a virtual 4-way tie) and the supporters of the 4th place finisher will be looking for someone else to support.
America likes winners as history shows, and I am completely convinced that the race will be between the winner of Iowa and NH and that the race will be decided before super Tuesday.
May 31st, 2007 at 6:51 pm
As far as Ames, my take is that Thompson will get in and lower expectations all the way up until the vote.
Giuliani will wait as long as possible to decide, and in the end he will decide that he can’t not compete in Iowa in January and if he wants to compete in January he has to give a good faith effort at Ames. Also the fact that his name will be on the ballot either way will make sure he is there. Most people aren’t aware that campaigns pay to bus in supporters. This means that when Giuliani gets 10% and comes in 4th most people will consider that a big loss, because all the explanations of buses and buying tickets will seem like spin.
Giuliani can’t afford to finish 4th at Ames because then all his soft support will question themselves and take a look at other candidates. Also I would assume that the likelihood of someone voting for a candidate in January goes up astronomically if they cast a vote for that candidate at Ames. Right now estimates are that almost half of the likely caucus particpants will be at Ames, meaning Rudy would have a lot of ground to make up if he didn’t try to win Ames.
For all of these reasons, all 4 big candidates will participate at Ames.
The order will be Romney 25%, McCain 17%, Rudy 15% F. Thompson 15%, T. Thompson 8%, Huckabee 6%, Brownback 5%.
May 31st, 2007 at 6:56 pm
I’m not sure history will be a good guide in 2008, dskinner. However I do agree with your characterization of how GOP nominations have been decided since 1972. We’ll see if the past was good indicator in several months.
May 31st, 2007 at 10:42 pm
So I hear a lot of chatter about how Thompson can possibly run a successful campaign. But what can he actually do as president? He achieved nothing great as a Senatorunless you consider McCain-Feingold an accomplishment. If he doesn’t have any experience as a leader of any organization, had no major accomplishments as a Senator, why should I think that he should be able to lead a country? Some compare Thompson to Reaganone difference, Reagan had experience running things, the State of California
That’s a real question, but Thompson is a good communicator. That alone can make a big difference in a President’ success.
May 31st, 2007 at 10:48 pm
I would love both Rudy and Thompson to skip the Iowa straw poll, though it’d be somewhat unfortunate for Mitt is McCain skipped it as well (is there any chance of that, assuming he’s still in the race?). I think McCain has very little chance of winning Iowa, but as long as the straw poll has some spotlight, by virtue of having two of the front-runners participating, I think it’ll be significant enough to prevent anyone who skips it from winning either. I think it’s all about expectations, and if Fred and Rudy play the game well, they can end up surprising with a strong second place finish in Ames, thereby deflating some of Mitt’s balloon. Skipping it entirely, for the reasons mentioned above, is simply not good policy if they actually intend to compete in Iowa. If Romney has more money, more Iowa organization, better or equal poll numbers (heading into the straw poll), and better press coverage by virtue of a decisive win at Ames, I can’t imagine what any of his rivals expect to use to defeat him there in January.
I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit, and if I were Romney, I’d dial back my focus on New Hampshire, because his popularity/familiarity there, combined with a win in Iowa, should easily allow him to win NH without campaigning all out there in the coming months. Instead, I’d redouble on South Carolina, Iowa, and Florida (in that order).
Others have commented that South Carolina could end up being Romney’s firewall, but it could also wind up being his bellwether. He needs to put forth a strong showing in the South. He needs it desperately, for all sorts of good reasons. One, he’s a Mormon, and a strong showing in South Carolina might be enough to finally the kill the issue. Two, he’s from Massachusetts, and he needs to show that he’s capable of both holding the base, and appealing to blue and purple state Republicans and independents that seem to be supporting him in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. And finally the surest path to the nomination for Romney, is to win 40-50% of the blue states, and 40-50% of the red states on Super Duper Tuesday, while Thompson sweeps up the remaining red states, and Giuliani the remaining blue states.
Here’s the pathway I see Mitt traversing. 1st in Iowa, 1st in NH, 2nd in South Carolina (behind Thompson), 2nd in Florida (behind Giuliani), and then the aforementioned red state/blue state combination on Super Duper Tuesday. I think if he finishes 1,1,2,2, the nomination is his in a walk. Romney will gain more momentum out of South Carolina then Thompson, because he wasn’t expected to perform as well there, and Rudy, having lost the first 3 states (with maybe only a 2nd place finish in NH), will have lost enough momentum that his win in Florida will be “below expectations”, and Romney’s second place will again gain him momentum (while hurting whatever momentum Thompson gained after finishing first in SC). With Demint, and the Bush machine behind him, he certainly has the organization and establishment support to convert previous momentum into second place finishes in those states.
May 31st, 2007 at 10:56 pm
I believe everyone will jump on with the Ames. However, Rudy would be disorganized, and lost to the likes of Tommy Thompson - he does have his bikers and has been focusing sololy in Iowa, and Brownback, as he too spent a lot of time in the state, and he is almost a hometown boy. They with their well-organized grassroots (at least better than Rudy) will do well. The ranking order would be something like, Romney, McCain, Tommy, Fred (because of his late entry which won’t hurt him), Brownback, and Rudy (I think Hunter will be close, or perhaps beat Rudy).
May 31st, 2007 at 11:17 pm
SGS,
I really doubt Rudy finishes 6th at Ames if he participates. He still has a better staff there then anyone outside of Romney and McCain, and assuming he actually intends to campaign there (and it’d be pretty odd for him not to if he was participating in the straw poll), I could see him pulling off a strong third, especially if Fred shows up. Because I think the 2nd and 3rd tier candidates will disappear into the ether upon Fred’s entry.
May 31st, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Kavon,
I specifically referred to Iowa or New Hampshire, not both and definitely not only Iowa. Again, nobody has ever lost both of those and won the nomination other than Clinton in 1992 which was an unusual case as I explained above. Iowa by itself isn’t the end all be all and I never said it was, but the combination of both Iowa and New Hampshire has been 100% predictive. Also, let’s not forget that Bush 41 got a serious challenge in 1992 so that makes 5 competitive GOP years to go along with all the Dem years where those two states have been predictive.
I believe that if Rudy can’t pull out a win in one of the first two states he won’t be able to win the nomination. FL awards delegates by congressional district which means even if Rudy wins statewide he probably won’t get very many delegates.
The compressed schedule gives candidates less time to recover from losses than before which IMO makes Iowa and New Hampshire even more important. If Rudy and Fred both skip Iowa many if not all party insiders will be offended which will make it very hard to get support later when they are campaigning for the caucuses. This is especially important for both of them since they don’t already have a strong committed grassroots organization there.
As far as Rudy goes, he could win NH with the support of Independents, but he faces an uphill climb there because Romney and McCain already have big advantages. Thompson will probably finish 4th in NH so he needs to do well in Iowa (at least a close 2nd) in order to have enough momentum to win SC. I don’t see him winning SC if he finishes 3rd in Iowa and 4th in NH.
June 1st, 2007 at 1:24 am
Where on earth did Kavon’s two posts go?
June 1st, 2007 at 1:58 am
The phantom poster strikes again…
June 1st, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Matt, are you saying that Rudy has the grassroot movement that is stronger than T.Thompson and Brownback in Iowa? Yes, he has his team there, but have they been active in developing the grassroot movement? I am not so sure. Remember, Ames is all about the grassroots inside the state, and it is a measure of how well your grassroots are. Unless I miss a post here for Rudy, so far, there have been posts about McCain, Romney, T.Thompson and Brownback about their state headquarters and their grassroot movements. Did I miss ones for Rudy?
June 1st, 2007 at 1:47 pm
The comments I posted, I felt upon review, didn’t meet my own standards for objectivity.
June 1st, 2007 at 1:59 pm
That’s fine Kavon. I felt that your comments were fine, just that there was a misunderstanding between what I meant to say and what you thought I said.
June 1st, 2007 at 2:59 pm
There is a few comments elsewhere that I think should belong here. There is a claim that McCain, Rudy and F. Thompson may not run in the Ames. Ouch. It means a whole lot to the Republicians there. This is throwing the dinner in their face. Those three very likely will see their numbers dropping in Iowa with the next few polls (fortunately, the voters in general do have a short memory).