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Public Policy Polling, May 30, 2007
| Romney | 31 |
| Fred Thompson | 15 |
| Gingrich | 10 |
| McCain | 9 |
| Giuliani | 8 |
| Someone else | 19 |
| Undecided | 8 |
Quite the shift with Thompson in the race. I think we are beginnning to see why no one except Romney wants to go to Ames. But, it’s a long road left, much can happen!
In South Carolina:
| Thompson | 27 |
| Romney | 16 |
| McCain | 15 |
| Giuliani | 14 |
| Gingrich | 11 |
June 4th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Good gosh. I wasn’t expecting this. Wow… I figured Thompson wouldn’t be top 4 because of his late entry. Combined with the new South Carolina poll, this is startling. I’m starting to think that the national insiders advantage poll released over the weekend is more accurate than I first thought.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
I don’t think this is a Des Moines Register’s poll. It says it was conducted by the Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, or something to that effect.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
My mistake, it was quick read, but its fixed now.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Mccain’s numbers are atrocious. does his campaign realize how poorly they are doing?
June 4th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
I’m sure the McCain camp is still believing ARG and until they drop there, they will still think they have a chance.
I am very suprised that these are the results. If this is anywhere close to being accurate Giuliani has no chance at all in Iowa. This is what I envision the results to be in January though.
June 4th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
These results look nothing like any other polling numbers I’ve seen lately. If they show actual trends, they’re incredibly interesting showing an entire shift of the entire primary towards a Romney/Thompson showdown as opposed to the McCain/Giuliani showdown I’m sure we all expected less than six months ago.
June 4th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Edwards leads 31-17 on the Dem side of things (both Hillary and Obama are at 17%). If Edwards scores this big of a win in Iowa, the rest of the race will be shaken up dramatically.
Obama is leading in South Carolina (34-31 over Hillary). If Hillary loses both Iowa and South Carolina, it’s hard to see a scenario where she’s the nominee.
June 4th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
I don’t know whether these results (774 Republicans) are accurate, and I certainly don’t know that this will be predictive of the state of the race at the end of this year.
But this poll, at the very least, ought to display to people how poorly predictive polls are in the time scale of a few months. I hope all the folks who were hyperventilating over polls late last year and early this year will take a breather and analyze their respective candidates based on more substantial issues.
June 4th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
yeah,
I agree with #6 regarding a trend away from Rudy / McCain and towards Romney / Thompson.
Romney has it difficult on SC. Nice to see a pole where he is at 16%. Need to see several polls like this to confirm him moving up there as well.
June 4th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
What is this? This is not even close.
June 4th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Jason, what is what? What is not even close?
Is this a second polls since Des Moines Register (not counting ARP) for Iowa? Is so, then this confirm the Des Moines’s number.
Last good polls for SC has Mitt at 11%, so look like his campaign has overcame the plateau of 5% to 8%.
June 4th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
Jake, not Jason
Sorry, Jason…
June 4th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
These polls are probably not 100% accurate, I would assume that Giuliani has more support. McCain, I wouldn’t be suprised if this was in the MOE for his support in both of those states.
It would be very interesting to see the crosstabs and also to see the candidates other than the top 5 in Iowa. 19% wanting someone outside the top 5 is more than the number of voters who want McCain and Giuliani combined. This could mean that Tommy Thompson or Brownback is within the MOE of Giuliani or McCain.
Being in 5th place in a poll no matter how much of an outlier it is, is bad news for Giuliani considering that just a couple of months ago he was in first in all the Iowa polls. If their internal polls are anything close to this then they need to skip Ames, skip Iowa and try for a good showing in NH and a win in NV, to hold voters over until Florida, which then becomes a must win.
June 4th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
How did Brownback do in the polls? It didnt show it all the way down? Thanks.
Brownback 08′
June 4th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Brownback was polled in a separate poll for lower candidates where he polled 4%. I think in this poll he would be considered part of the “someone else.”
June 4th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Finally the interesting part of the race has begun; Romney vs. Thompson in South Carolina. If Thompson loses in South Carolina, then I think you can put a fork in him. If Romney wins, then he’s probably tied up the election. There are both going to want this state bad. I expect Thompson to focus solely on South Carolina, and Mitt to focus heavily there, since he will probably have New Hampshire and Ohio in the bag.
June 4th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Cue the Drudge News Siren…
that said, let’s wait to see how much od this holds.
June 4th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Quite the shift with Thompson in the race. I think we are beginnning to see why no one except Romney wants to go to Ames. But, it’s a long road left, much can happen!
Romney could be vulnerable to some negative advertising and to a Mormonism whisper campaign, but the campaign that actually did it probably wouldn’t benefit it. For now, I think only the McCain campaign would be desperate enough, though this news about the email the Giuliani campaign is sending around shows they’re flirting with the idea.
June 4th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
The “Mormon Card” has been played too early in the Campaign. By the time the election actually happens, they could run an ad saying that “Mormons” believe in killing babies and people are going to be like, whatever. It might have been effective as a week of the election bomb, but it is already getting played out and we’re not through the second quarter.
June 4th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
shocking numbers. it will be interesting to see if other polls support these. but is clear that iowans have moved away from mccain and guiliani. looks like a race betweeen fred and mitt is starting up.
not a suprise actually. i would love it if the race were between fred and romney anyway, there is something to be excited about. Both are better than the rest. i wonder if that will end up being the ticket, either way.
June 4th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Looks like Giuliani can’t do well with Iowa’s social conservatives. He will be on the Ames ballot, and will do badly – so he might as well pretend not to campaign there.
If Romney can come 1st in NH & Iowa, then the race is almost his. Given they both look likely, SC is the remaining bugbear for him. The fact his numbers seem to be movnign from the 5% he was stuck at for ages must be a relief to him. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
June 5th, 2007 at 9:28 am
[...] for Thompson. He’s at 21% in California, tied with McCain and just seven points shy of Rudy. A Public Policy Poll of Iowa and South Carolina shows Fred surging to 15% in Iowa, second only to Romney, and to an [...]
June 7th, 2007 at 8:36 am
[...] but this poll was paid for by, and done for, Mitt Romney’s campaign. The results echo the PPP poll pretty closely, though, which was taken during the same time [...]
June 7th, 2007 at 8:41 am
[...] this poll was paid for by, and done for, Mitt Romney’s campaign. The results echo the latest PPP poll pretty closely, though, which was taken during the same time [...]