Lets just call a spade a spade. McCain, Giuliani and soon to be Thompson are dropping out of Ames because they have already lost. They looked at the movement on the ground and foresaw massive amounts of nobody in there Ames tent. Do you think they would have dropped out if they thought they had a chance?
I think we just saw? superior ground game, great endorsements, strategic fundraising, rising poll numbers and the best candidate all collide in perfect storm.
The press release from Team Romney:
“Governor Romney has put in the time, built the organization and communicated his message to the voters of Iowa. It’s a message focused on bringing conservative change to Washington, and it is resonating with Iowa voters because it matches his record of accomplishment as governor.
“Our plan all along has been to play in the Iowa straw poll, and that hasn’t changed. Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa.
“It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them.”
I think we just saw Romney win so big that the other guys didn’t even show up.
And you know why? This is why…
(picture by Justin at www.mymanmitt.com)
June 6th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
Mitt knows kung-fu.
June 6th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Murphy,
really what doesn’t this guy know?
June 6th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
[...] post by Jason and software by Elliott [...]
June 6th, 2007 at 11:18 pm
Nice Pic Justin, sweet..
June 6th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
The thing about Romney is that his personal appearance time is far more valuable than the money spent, especially as he will raise more money than any GOP candidate this next period as well. Much of the grassroots funding that he needed to invest in Iowa has already been spent. He can finish dominating the straw pole, run his victory lap, then spend his time finishing up New Hampshire and moving onto Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida.
Look for more personal appearances in areas that will now be extra credit for Mitt. The big question is, do you hit Nevada, with a lot of built-in advantages, or try to finish off McCain for good in South Carolina? I would vote Nevada, and trust Thompson to dispatch McCain in SC. Nevada is also a smaller target, freeing up time to defend New Hampshire and perhaps make inroads into Florida.
June 6th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
One person gets in the way…
Sam Brownback, he will beat Romeny in Ames…
June 6th, 2007 at 11:31 pm
bobl, you’ve got to be kidding. Brownback will be lucky if he can be the 2nd best also-ran. Tommy Thompson and Huckabee both could beat him there, not to mention the fact that the guys not showing up have a good chance to beat him.
June 6th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
No I am no kidding you…
June 6th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
Justin needs to make Team Romney’s faces the same color as their bodies. Otherwise, great post.
June 7th, 2007 at 12:09 am
That’s a great poster. For whatever is may be worth, Rudy and Romney are now tied for 1st at http://www.politicalderby.com. with the following commentary ….”Rudy is no longer alone at the top. His national numbers are still enviable – he averages a double digit lead – but according to the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, the percentage of Republicans who definitely will not vote for Giuliani has jumped from less than a quarter to 33-percent. Now comes the news that Rudy will skip the Iowa straw poll, a major barometer of support and an important stepping stone to winning the caucus. Will Iowans feel left at the alter? Yes, so expect the mayor’s numbers to slip….
June 7th, 2007 at 12:18 am
KevinP; they’re really going out on a limb over there at political derby eh? They’ve practically got everybody who is running tied for first. Hope they’re right about Rudy continuing to fall.
June 7th, 2007 at 12:32 am
JB; I’m wondering how much fallout is yet to come from their (Rudy and McCain) decision to essentially concede Iowa to Romney – certainly gives the momentum to Romney – gives the folks who are still sitting on the fence a push onto Mitt’s side.
June 7th, 2007 at 1:29 am
Kevin, I guess that all depends on how much Iowa, NH, and SC maintain their respective influence as momentum makers. Giuliani’s counting on his national poll numbers holding up until 2/5. I’m counting on the 75% of Republicans who want someone else for a nominee to break towards the winner of IA and NH, which looks as though it could be Mitt.
June 7th, 2007 at 2:33 am
Did anyone catch Frank Luntz on Hannity tonight? He talked about his focus group which also watched a video of a Thompson interview. Thompson came across very well. Luntz said that about 6 or 7 of the 29 likely voters came in supporting Romney and he said after the debate that the number of Romney supporters was somewhere in the low 20s.
No matter who the pundits think won, it is apparent that Romney did at least as well as Rudy with regular people. Also McCain was terrible, apparently most people weren’t impressed that he didn’t tank as much as expected, perhaps because they didn’t expect him to. Also, in CNN’s pre-debate coverage McCain got hammered by NH voters over immigration and several said they couldn’t consider voting for him after hearing his entire explanation. Not good for McCain.
Also, I think Tommy or if not him another Fred Thompson supporter should become a main page contributor in order to balance things.
June 7th, 2007 at 3:53 am
Dskinner you’ve hit upon a often ignored truth: most voters aren’t politically literate.
For those of us that weigh every event in the campaign, I think we miss the forest for the trees.
The average voter is going to get their information in television ads and on the evening news. Only a minority of voters are political junkies who are thinking this through.
When a majority of voters fail to identify a candidate’s stand on abortion (#1 litmus issue) than you know the campaign hasn’t started yet for most voters.
When people actually begin to decide who to vote for we’ll see some very interesting movement.
June 7th, 2007 at 5:09 am
I hope Romney gets a big head. this is the only state he MIGHT win. he can buy up all the tickets to the poll he wants and he’ll probly win. shocking.
June 7th, 2007 at 7:00 am
josh,
sorry Romney’s ahead in MI and NH, climbing in SC and in national polls.
bobbl,
I keeping thinking back to CPAC when the Brownback campaign claimed they could have done better if the local catholic University had not been out for spring break. That comment said many different things about the level of Brownbacks support and ability to campaign.
June 7th, 2007 at 7:44 am
Tancredo’s scaling back his campaign.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_5571773,00.html
June 7th, 2007 at 7:50 am
I’d wait to see another couple polls before I claim that Romney is climbing in SC. He’s certainly not climbing in any other southern states.
June 7th, 2007 at 7:50 am
hahahahah
June 7th, 2007 at 8:14 am
nobody cares about Ames.
June 7th, 2007 at 8:15 am
Pat Robertson cared about Ames in 1987, see how important it must be?
June 7th, 2007 at 8:18 am
I think the converse is Giuliani and McCain cared enough to drop out after planning on attending. Why? See how important it must be?
June 7th, 2007 at 8:24 am
Historically, the top 2 in the Ames straw poll have often been the top 2 in the Iowa caucus the next year.
Ames is a chance to put together a superior organization, which is needed to win a caucus state, and a chance to line up early supporters. Rudy and McCain have trouble with both parts of it, and will not be winning or coming in second in January.
To say Ames doesn’t matter is to say Iowa doesn’t matter – the same mistake McCain made in 2000.
June 7th, 2007 at 8:27 am
You’re right Adam, Pat finished 2nd in the caucus because of his efforts in Iowa during the straw poll.
June 7th, 2007 at 8:34 am
Romney’s going to buy Ames, so what?
June 7th, 2007 at 8:34 am
New NH Poll
Romney 27
Giuliani 18
McCain 17
Thompson 9
http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wbz/wbz/2007/June/GOPDebatePoll.pdf
June 7th, 2007 at 8:35 am
New Quinnipiac poll for Florida
Republicans
Giuliani 31 (-7 vs. last poll April 26)
Thompson 14 (+9)
McCain 10 (-5)
Romney 8 (+1)
Gingrich 7 (+1)
Undecided 21 (nc)
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1074
June 7th, 2007 at 10:53 am
HeavyM,
“To say Ames doesn’t matter is to say Iowa doesn’t matter – the same mistake McCain made in 2000.”
Of course Iowa matters, but it should only matter as much as any other state its size. Since it’s already obvious that the primary schedule is now vastly different with a whole different expectations game, maybe it just matters a little less, as it should.
“You’re right Adam, Pat finished 2nd in the caucus because of his efforts in Iowa during the straw poll.”
And in 1988, George H.W. Bush came in a lowly third, lost by 19 points and still clenched the national nomination despite his poor showing in Iowa.
June 7th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Just a note on Brownback…I’m from Kansas, and I’ve watched Brownback for a long time. The guy’s a huge loser. Anybody who gets excited by ole Sam won’t be able to stay awake long enough to vote.
June 7th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
cricket- IS fine that you have come to that view. Alot of folks that are meeting the man for the first time, like myself back in Jan. when I met him have a different view of the Senator. I think he is a fine man with a fine team of folks behind him this will mean alot come Ames in August.