The Candidates
Fred Thompson is “shaking things up” according to the AP headline on this poll (PDF warning):
AP-Ipsos National Republican Primary
- Giuliani - 27% (35)
- McCain - 19% (22)
- F Thompson - 17% (-)
- Romney - 10% (8)
- Gingrich - 7% (11)
- Brownback - 3% (3)
- Huckabee - 2% (3)
- Other - 1% (-)
- Undecided - 10% (12)
Survey was done June 4-7 of 356 registered voters, and has an MoE of 5.2%.
June 9th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Yet more proof Thompson does not pull votes from Mitt. He goes from nothing to 17%, and Romney is still up. I think it is the soft Giuliani voters that switch the most to Thompson, because a lot of his support is down to his high name-id rather than voters actually knowing him well. You can be fairly confident that voters who back lesser-knowns like Mitt are more attached, because they have to be pretty plugged in and know a lot about the race to be aware of his candidacy.
June 9th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Is this the poll that I read about here?
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=11551
If so, what happened to Mitt?
June 9th, 2007 at 10:34 am
This survey gives demographic for all adults but not for registered voters.
I’m wondering why they’re hiding the relevant demographics that we could use to judge the poll by.
June 9th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Fred now has to prove himself.
he’s doing well.
June 9th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Nearly 40% in this poll were people from the South and nearly 40% said that they considered themselves evangelical Christians. That seems heavily weighted and I’m surprised that Fred Thompson didn’t show better.
Also, only 16 % were 65 or older and I’m pretty sure that more than 16% of the actual voters are over 65. I could be wrong, but I believe that Rudy gets a lot of support from the under 30 crowd (which was nearly 1/3 or this grou)
Still, it once again, shows that at least initially Fred pulls from everyone BUT Romney (but it could be argued that he’s “slowing” ROmney’s rise.
June 9th, 2007 at 11:26 am
Fred & Thompson definitely get the name recognition votes. To me this suggests inflated national numbers. If Fred actually enters the race and competes in Iowa and comes in second, then I’ll take him serious.
June 9th, 2007 at 11:50 am
Jeff,
According to CNN’s exit polls from the 2004 presidential election, exactly 16% of the voters were 65 and older. Among senior citizens, Bush defeated Kerry 52-47%.
The bracketing by age in this AP poll was not 18-29 as you suggested, but 18-34. In the 2004 exit polls, 17% of those who voted were 18-29, while 29% of the vote was comprised of those who were 30-44. That said, it appears the 30% in the 18-34 range might well be slightly oversampled.
The 18-29 crowd voted for Kerry, 54-45%. The 30-44 group went for Bush,53-46%.
June 9th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Jeff,
You are right in that born-agains, or evangelical Christians were disproportionately oversampled in this poll. As one who is 36-years old, I don’t know if I’d characterize 36% as “nearly 40%”, but only 23% of those who voted in the 2004 presidential election identified themselves as ‘white, evangelical, born-again.’
June 9th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
No one was over sampled according to ADULT demographics via the US Census Bureau.
The demographics are for ADULTS only.
The primary numbers are for REGISTERED VOTERS.
That’s why we can’t tell what the demographic for the primary question actually was. They’re giving us the full ADULT groups demographic instead of narrowing it down.
June 9th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Check out the survey’s PDF it says and I quote
“Note: Represents all adults unless otherwise indicated.”
June 9th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Oversampling, undersampling, the whole poll thing this early is just spec.
June 9th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
No offense Aron . . . and thanks for checking my assumptions with some data.
Maybe that link above to The American Spectator (comment #2) when it said the early votes had Mitt Romney in 2nd was before they got to calling all the Southern States? Fred’s numbers might have kicked into high gear there? Who knows . . . ?
June 11th, 2007 at 10:09 am
FDT IS NOT PULLING FROM RUDY. He is pulling from undecided strict socons.
June 11th, 2007 at 10:10 am
…and other undecideds. Rudy’s, as are Mitt’s supporters are pretty loyal and solid.