The Candidates
We got the Democrat side of this poll yesterday, and they just released the GOP side this afternoon:
CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Republican Primary (PDF warning)
- Romney - 28% (17)
- Giuliani - 20% (29)
- McCain - 20% (29)
- F Thompson - 11% (3)
- Gingrich - 4% (2)
- Paul - 3% (1)
- All others - 2% or less
Without Gingrich
- Romney - 29%
- Giuliani - 22%
- McCain - 20%
- F Thompson - 12%
- Paul - 3%
- All others - 2% or less
Which candidate is the strongest leader?
- Giuliani - 26%
- McCain - 26%
- Romney - 25%
- F Thompson - 5%
Which candidate is most believable?
- McCain - 27%
- Giuliani - 21%
- Romney - 19%
- F Thompson - 6%
Which candidate is most likable?
- Romney - 32%
- Giuliani - 28%
- McCain - 12%
- F Thompson - 10%
Which candidate has the best chance of beating the Democrat nominee?
- Giuliani - 31%
- Romney - 25%
- McCain - 14%
- F Thompson - 6%
Survey was conducted June 6-11 of 304 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 5.5%.
In the last 5 polls, not counting the ARG outlier, Romney has a lead of 9, 16, 9, 11, and 8 in New Hampshire.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Interesting that McCain, Giuliani, and Romney are all seen as equally strong leaders. Also interesting that despite charges of flip-flopping and the fact that Rudy is considered the “This is where I am, take it or leave it” candidate, the two are seen as pretty much equally believable.
June 12th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
[...] post by HeavyM and software by Elliott [...]
June 12th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Heavy,
Can’t open the pdf right now…but I assume the change in numbers stradles the recent NH debate?
This would seem to confirm Romney’s performance in debates from current focus groups and Romney’s MA debates. When people see him, they like him. A lot.
June 12th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
murphy, indeed - the headline on CNN is “Poll: Romney surges after debate”.
June 12th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
This is why Thompson needs to go after Iowa with everything he’s got. He will come in 4th in NH unless McCain does some kind of Howard Dean impression after getting spanked in Iowa. I think Thompson is the only guy who can beat Romney in IA and if Romney wins Iowa he will be nearly impossible to beat in NH. Thompson needs to win IA or at least beat expectations, write off NH and win SC so he will have momentum going into FL.
Great news for Romney, but I think we all say this trend in other polls. The only thing left is for ARG to abandon their McCain bias and then every poll will show Romney leading significantly in NH.
June 12th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
We’ll see what FDT does. He’ll be at Ames, but I can’t honestly predict if he will participate or not. Don’t forget, Thompson will be in New Hamphshire at the end of the month, and I’m interested to see what/if any type of bounce that will have. He seems to be getting them whereever he goes, so it’ll be something to watch.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:23 pm
I guess people in NH realize Thompson is all fluff. Huzzah.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
I would dare say that NH and IA the voters are more educated than say the average voter in a national survey, I don’t know if I could support this with a number, but it seems likely. That could explain why Thompson is not seeing such a boomlet there as perhaps the average Joe who hasn’t watched the debates and hasn’t been following things. To them Thompson represents an ideal, where as to the educated voter Thompson represents himself like all the other candidates do.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
I wonder if it’s the “IA and NH voters more educated” theory, or simply that IA and NH voters don’t instantly identify with that southern fried charm and give him a pass.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
Tommy, how would Fred go to Ames without participating? Hang in the back of the crowd and “chat”?
June 12th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
murphy,
Sounds like about par for the course for Fred. Try to eat up all the attention, without actually facing potential negative consequences.
June 12th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
Matt,
I suppose it’s better than broadcasting himself to Ames by a live internet feed, right? Atleast he’s willing to hop on a plane.
June 12th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Murphy,
Fred would go to Ames in a silver sedan. Somewhere about 20 miles out side of town he would trade for a red truck.
June 12th, 2007 at 6:37 pm
“Fred would go to Ames in a silver sedan. Somewhere about 20 miles out side of town he would trade for a red truck.”
He would probably stop along the way to go rodent hunting with Governor Mitt.
June 12th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Romney’s plan is very clear. Win the front two and then become the unassailable front-runner, John Kerry style. No wonder Rudy & John are desparately trying to undermine Iowa’s importance!
I think he’s clearly starting to overtake McCain as #2. And should we move Ron Paul up? 3% isn’t bad for a very unpresidential congressman with no hope of winning…
June 12th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
I note in the article CNN say “Much is at stake in New Hampshire — particularly for Romney and McCain. Because Romney is from a neighboring state and McCain won the New Hampshire primary once before, the New Hampshire primary is a crucial test for both. Only one of them is likely to come out of New Hampshire alive.”
- What do people expect? I think if McCain does badly in the first two he will drop out…
June 12th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Tommy,
Ha! good one…
Both are very likely things to happen.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Interesting that Paul is the top of the lower-tier candidates. As I’ve said in a couple of other threads, I think once people know who he is, he’ll break into high single digits. I think he’ll largely *stay* in high single digits, but…
June 12th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Big state strategy is not going to work! 1988 had an Tsunami Thursday, but it was the early states which decided it.
Whoever, wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, will win it all. If Romney wins the first
two then he has 70% chance to win it all.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
TLG,
I agree.
I think NH is an open primary, so Paul could do extra well there.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Tommy, Jason, no doubt. And between Fred’s rented pickup truck and Mitt’s rodent sharp-shooting, it’s pretty obvious how they chased McCain’s bus off their collective IA yards.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
I would love to see a debate between the top 3, McCain should probably be invited as well. I really think that each of our top 4 is so far superior to any of the Dems top candidates in terms of experience and intangibles.
Think about it, Rudy, Mitt and Fred are all great communicators and a limited debate would allow them to get into details about their plans. Why wouln’t a network set up a debate like this. Think about how great it would be. Foxnews could team up with Florida’s GOP and only invite those 4 candidates.
It would be a much more important debate, it would get a ton of attention because of the noise excluded candidates would make and because of the precedent it would break. I really don’t see the downside. Fox could have by far the most watched debate of the campaign and the voters could get a good look at the top 4 candidates.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Ha! Fred with an old muddy truck chasing him around and then Mitt comes out the front door with a BB Gun, chasing all the McCainiacs out of their yards.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
News for Thompson…
Former Senator Al D’Amato endorses Fred Thompson. Hint: Ryan Sager gives a wink and a nudge to one of my secret endorsements that I’ve been teasing you guys with that’s coming later.
http://www.latestpolitics.com/blog/2007/06/al-damato-endorses-fred-thompson.html
June 12th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
Debate between the Top 4:
McCain: Let me give you some straight talk — I would like to be President far more than any of these other guys; in fact, I will die a miserable person if I’m not elected President, so, plz?
Rudy: Wait, wait, let me talk about how I personally cut crime in New York by 78,594%, unlike my opponent –
Romney: I’m not going to reply to personal attacks here, Rudy.
[Fred Thompson off-camera: zzzzzzzzz]
Audience: Where’s Ron Paul? He provides all the lulz.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
So I just watched Fred Thompson on Leno. I never watch him, but decided to when Tommy mentioned Thompson was appearing. I like to think I’m very open to Fred, as he’s one of only two guys I could vote for in the primary. So take what I’m about to say in that context. I thought he was bad. Not mediocre or average. Bad. The entire interview was just terribly uninteresting, and I found myself, more then once, near to drifting into unconsciousness. I’ve found Thompson compelling in a few settings (I liked for instance the interview he gave where he mentioned opportunity’s just appearing), but I have to agree with his detractors: he’s capable of being extremely boring and dull. Whatever it is that’s making people go off the wall about this guy, I don’t see it.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:42 pm
It was just like any other politician on the show. I didn’t think he was excellent, but he was fine. Romney wasn’t any better on there.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
What I meant by that is that Leno has to walk carefully when interviewing politicians.. not his usual humor. Bush sucked on there, and the only one I’ve ever found remotely entertaining was Al Gore, and that was on Conan after he was out of office.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
and i thought he gave quite a good answer when questioned about Iran. Also, the skit at the beginning was funnyy.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:54 pm
I thought Romney was considerably better on Leno. Night and day. To be sure, I think many of Romney’s jokes were more rehearsed, but at least he had some, and delivered them well. Fred’s stern demeanor made me want to stop laughing even the few times Leno said something humorous. Maybe Leno’s simply not Fred’s ideal setting. I have no idea. But, he bored me to tears tonight and, when I’m someone who’s desperately eager to have a back-up candidate, that I could in good conscious support to stop Rudy’s nomination, I think that’s an awfully bad sign. What do I know though? The Fredheads on freerepublic are already touting it as a breakout performance, and a marvel’s that rivals the creation of Eve from Adam’s breastbone.
June 13th, 2007 at 9:27 am
I thought the “Gilmore Girls” mom was more exciting.
June 13th, 2007 at 10:11 am
I’m with Peter on that…
June 13th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
[...] Romney the Dolphin lately?) In the comments yesterday, longtime commenter and Mitt supporter Matt says: With Fred eating into his support in the South, his team’s first instinct would clearly be to [...]
June 13th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
[...] Romney the Dolphin lately?) In the comments yesterday, longtime commenter and Mitt supporter Matt says: With Fred eating into his support in the South, his team’s first instinct would clearly be to [...]