GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Whereas most polls ask respondents which candidate they would vote for in the primary, this one effectively asks which candidate they would be most likely to support in next year’s presidential election. This is the closest Fred Thompson has come yet to Giuliani in a national poll, but this result must be taken with a grain of salt as the question’s unique wording and the omission of Newt Gingrich from this poll have inflated Thompson’s total and yielded an exceptionally high number of respondents answering that they “don’t know”; in fact, double that of the undecideds in the new LA Times/Bloomberg Poll.
Click here for tabular results.
Survey was conducted May 29 through June 3 using a randomly selected sample of 602 registered voters statewide in New Jersey and 776 additional registered voters nationally. The sampling error for 602 respondents is +/-4%, and the sampling error for 776 respondents is +/-3.5%.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:19 am
[...] post by Aron Goldman and software by Elliott [...]
June 12th, 2007 at 3:24 am
Who knows how accurate this group is, but if they are accurate as their NJ numbers indicate they might be, this is terrible news for Rudy. In all actuality he is probably behind nationally according to these guys if the poll were restricted to likely voters.
As much as I’d like this to be true, and as much as I think it may be true at some point in the future, I don’t think this poll reflects the state of the race nationally.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:35 am
We know that a lot of registered voters who typically don’t vote in primaries support Rudy. The open question is whether these voters will show up or not.
If they do Rudy pulls about 25-30%. If they don’t show up he pulls about 15-20%.
I’m assuming Rudy’s people know this and they’re going to have an extensive ground game to motivate and organize these typically unmotivated voters that comprise so much of his poll support.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:57 am
Whereas most polls ask respondents which candidate they would vote for in the primary, this one effectively asks which candidate they would be most likely to support in next year’s presidential election.
So what is this measuring? Would some voters have taken it as a prediction of who would win the nomination from trhe GOP? Would some voters vote for someone in the primary other than their preferred national election nominee? I don’t understand the point of this question.
June 12th, 2007 at 7:10 am
Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary
Thompson 24%
Giuliani 24%
Romney 11%
McCain 11%
June 12th, 2007 at 7:12 am
No kidding
June 12th, 2007 at 7:20 am
FDT is tied with Rudy in the latest Rasmussen Poll.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary
June 12th, 2007 at 7:23 am
Didn’t see you there Tommy.
June 12th, 2007 at 7:34 am
No problem. I’m trying hard not to be a poor sport right now, but after some of yesterday’s comments, it’s tough. One little known fact that I should warn those about. It was proven in 1994 and 1996 the more you attack Thompson, the higher his poll numbers go!!
June 12th, 2007 at 7:43 am
Latest Poll Watch:…(This poll has about as much signifigance as the one Aron just posted.
Last weekend the South Carolina Federation of Republican Women overwhelmingly selected Romney as their choice for the GOP nomination in 2008.
On Saturday, June 9, 2007, the South Carolina Federation of Republican Women held their quarterly board meeting at the Radisson in Columbia. During the early portion of the meeting a presidential straw poll was conducted. Only full members of SCFRW (a local club member) were allowed to cast a ballot. 19 clubs representing the Coast, Low Country, Midlands, and Upstate participated, with the women activists ranging in age from 18-75. The results were as follows:
Mitt Romney: 29 Fred Thompson: 9 John McCain: 8 Rudy Giuliani: 7 Mike Huckabee: 6 Duncan Hunter: 3 Newt Gingrich: 2
Not a bad showing for the Governor, but word has it that McCain opted out of this straw poll before it was held!
June 12th, 2007 at 7:45 am
Kevin, that might be the most important poll in the history of American politics.
June 12th, 2007 at 7:50 am
That Rasmussen poll is great news. No kidding. Obviously he seems to have taken from Mitt and McCain this go around, but at this point, I’m ecstatic to see anyone tied with Rudy in national polls. I too think Thompson is bound to fade as his lustre comes off, but I generally feel the same thing about Rudy. The main question for Romney supporters is, do we think Romney is a more diligent, more qualified, more impressive candidate then either of those two. If the answer is yes, in the long run he’ll win more supporter then he’ll lose.
But, really pretty astonishing for Thompson here. I’m fairly certain that the last name recognition polls I’ve seen had him at somewhere around 60%. If he’s tying Rudy with a 3/5’s of his national name recognition, then I think we must consider him the national front-runner.
June 12th, 2007 at 7:59 am
I’m pretty stunned. History is out the window. This is going to be an unprecedented primary, regardless of the outcome.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:02 am
If someone will post the poll numbers I’ll point out something that may dampen our enthusiasm a bit.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:06 am
Did they leave out Newt?
June 12th, 2007 at 8:09 am
or the weird New Jersey stats, where Bloomberg is tied with Obama for the lead in a general
June 12th, 2007 at 8:12 am
And you guys heard it hear first. Thompson will be at Ames for the straw poll. Not sure whether he will compete yet, but he will be there.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:16 am
Yup. To be honest, although I’m glad to see polls like this, for varying reasons, I’m really pretty frustrated by Fred Thompson and those who are trying to foist him on us with as little care as the Rudybots, of some months ago, took when trying to foist Giuliani on us.
I’m frankly extremely frustrated with Republican primary voters, and their addiction to the cult of personality. Thompson NEEDS to be vetted if he’s our nominee. But, many of Thompson’s supporters (largely on freerepublic and red state) are utterly unwilling to allow this to happen. Post a thread with a dozen pro-choice statements, questionaires, and quotes from Thompson in the 90’s, and they’ll exclaim how he’s always pro-life champion, and demand that you stop conducting character assassinations. Or they’ll just delete the thread or post outright.
They’re (excluding Tommy), the most irrational supporters I’ve ever seen. And, while I tend to think the candidate who has the most irrational supporters wins (if someone’s irrationally basing their vote on personality, then personality is all that can move them, and reason is ultimately useless), that’s desperately poor scenario to be in come a general election, because ONE slip-up, can remove the veneer. And, when you’re not being vetted, when your supporters refuse to even consider anything negative about your candidacy and literally stonewall those who attempt et you, you’re pretty likely to slip up.
Another problem I have, is I’m not where the primary process goes from here. I’m starting to become convinced that Thompson doesn’t need to do ANYTHING, other then exist, to win all the Southern primary states. History, and various early polls, indicate that the South, more then any other region by far, votes primarily based on cultural identity. Thus, Bill Clinton. Thus, John Edwards early strength. So does that leave Romney, Rudy, and McCain splitting the coasts, the upper midwest, and plain states? Unless one of them disappears before the primaries, that doesn’t seem to be enough of a pie for two people to split, with one triumphing over Thompson.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:20 am
Matt, I’ll bring up some points when I get home, but I understand where you’re coming from. You’ve hit the nail on the head about the southern identity though. I’ve been bringing this up for a while, saying that this would happen. I’ll explain when I get home.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:30 am
Matt, RedState is utterly ridiculous anymore. I can’t even stand to read anything over there. They represent a troubling element of the GOP which is addicted to ideological purity tests. Granted I think for any organization, politically, civically there needs to be a common bond. But if they were able to get rid of everyone that didn’t agree with them, the Republican Party would be a party largely confined to the South (without Florida) and Central States. A lot of them have no concept that the reality is that this country is not all that conservative. They are to the GOP what the fringe left is to the Democrats.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:48 am
As I said before if someone will post the poll numbers I’ll point out something that may dampen our enthusiasm about this survey.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:08 am
UGADawg, I agree. Redstate = Southern redstate. The blog was started by southerners and has a very strong southern influence. Also, if you don’t post the party line, watch out, because you will be shouted down.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:58 am
They’re (excluding Tommy), the most irrational supporters I’ve ever seen.
FredState is pretty ridiculous, but cut the Freddites some slack. Thompson is having his coming out moment right now and that’s when his supporters are going to be at their maximum irrational exuberance.
Nothing wrong with Southerners, or with voting for your own, as long as it doesn’t get too crazy. Thompson’s a decent candidate so there’s nothing odd about Southerners gravitating to him.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Thompson will be at Ames for the straw poll. Not sure whether he will compete yet, but he will be there.
That’s like smoking without inhaling. Whether or not he says he’s going to compete, if he goes to Ames he’s competing there. Gutsy move, Thompson.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Thompson is a good candidate, but the Republicans should nominate someone who has the best chance of winning the general election. Don’t forget, history is going against the Republicans right now, because it is extremely tough for one (1) party to win more than three (3) elections in a row. Right now, it appears that the only candidate who can beat Hillary or Omama is Giuliani. Therefore, the Republicans need to face reality and answer the question:
Which candidate, even though more than 1 is qualified to be an effective President, is the most likely to win the general election? Do the Republicans really want to chance it in 2008 and deal with a Hillary or Omama candidacy, which will attempt to circumvent the war on terror, allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, raise taxes at every level of the spectrum and introduce socialized medicine? I just came out yesterday or today that Iran is even arming the Taliban.
June 12th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Even though I disagree with him politically, I apologize for the misspelling of Obama’s name.