GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Some surprising numbers all the way around this morning from Scott:
Rasmussen GOP National Primary
Giuliani - 24% (23)
F Thompson - 24% (17)
Romney - 11% (15)
McCain - 11% (14)Survey was conducted June 4-7 of 633 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 4%.
From the bottom up: this is the lowest John McCain has ever polled in Rasmussen polls for the 2008 race. This is also the lowest Romney has polled since the beginning of last month, and this poll might be the first to show Fred Thompson possibly drawing support from Romney (Fred up 7, Romney and McCain down a combined 7). This also represents the first time in 2007 Giuliani does not have sole possession of the lead.
As I said, surprises all around this morning.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:17 am
I’m happy to see Rudy is going up with Fred in the poll…. However… the hit pieces will start flying against Fred….
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/11/AR2007061102078.html
June 12th, 2007 at 9:20 am
This Rasmussen poll result is likely an outlier.
Fox News Opinion Dynamics conducted a likely voter poll during the same time as the Rasmussen poll.
Look at the Confidence Intervals:
Thompson 8.2-17.8%
McCain 10.3-19.7%
AP Ipsos conducted a registered voter poll at the same time as the Rasmussen poll.
Confidence Intervals:
Thompson 13.2-20.8%
McCain 15.2-22.9%
I’m assuming Rasmussen either had a bad sample (was there a Law and Order marathon on TV or something?)
June 12th, 2007 at 9:22 am
This is the first poll with substantial evidence that Fred takes away from Romney.
I am still a believer that Fred is getting his “honeymoon” bump and may get even more of a bump when he officially “announces”. There will be a time where Fred may even take over the lead from Rudy and show Romney falling lower.
However, I believe this will only be for a short time and by the fall there will be a 3-way race (meaning all statistically tied) between Rudy, Fred and Romney. Those 3 render McCain DOA.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:27 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the beginning of the real “Fred Boomlet” that will culminate with him leading most polls for 3-4 weeks after he officially announces, then settling down.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:28 am
Oops! Looks like JohioW beat me to it.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:34 am
Fresh from http://www.joinrudy2008.com
The Twelve Commitments:
1. I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us.
2. I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation.
3. I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.
4. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
5. I will impose accountability on Washington.
6. I will lead America towards energy independence.
7. I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.
8. I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.
9. I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.
10. I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
11. I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.
12. I will expand America’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.
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June 12th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Rudy’s Twelve Commitments are based on the principles of giving people more freedom, more power, and more responsibility over their own lives, while protecting our nation, strengthening our economy, and improving the quality of life.
“I believe America solves its problems best from strength, not weakness, and from optimism, not pessimism,” Giuliani said. “My Twelve Commitments are a promise to this generation and generations to come that we will keep the American dream alive. I believe it’s the kind of leadership and common sense accountability the American people need in Washington.”
June 12th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Rudy2008,
I think most Republicans go along with those “commandments.” Regarding #4:
4. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
..shouldn’t Rudy sign a no-tax increase pledge if he were serious about that?
June 12th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Romney’s at an interesting fork I think. With Fred eating into his support in the South, his team’s first instinct would clearly be to move right. But, I think this would be a dreadful mistake. He’s not going to out conservative, a southern conservative messiah. What’s more, Romney’s simply not credible as the most conservative person in the room. But he is credible as the most competent. And the smartest. What Romney needs to do now, is move ever so slightly towards the center, and play the competent, brilliant, outsider, who just so happens to be fairly conservative on most issues. And, if the last 2 months or so are any indication, he seems to have settled fairly comfortably into that slot. If he’s going to discredit Fred, he needs to do so from his strengths, not his weaknesses. He needs to ask “what is this man ever done in terms of actual governing?” He needs to ask “is this guy familiar with the intricate details of the various issues facing the nation?” And he needs to ask “is this former washington lobbyist, former senator, a real outsider?” And then he needs to mostly let other second-tier candidates question Thompson’s conservative bonafides.
But, as I said before, Romney NEEDS to hard after South Carolina if he has any hope of winning red leaning states on Super Tuesday. He doesn’t need to win South Carolina, provided he wins Iowa and NH, but he needs to place a strong second.
June 12th, 2007 at 9:53 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the beginning of the real “Fred Boomlet” that will culminate with him leading most polls for 3-4 weeks after he officially announces, then settling down
Agreed.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:07 am
What does this say about Republicans that someone who isn’t even in the race and hasn’t been vetted is at 24 percent (assuming the poll is correct)? If the poll IS correct then it’s a sad thing that all it requires to leap to the head of the pack is to be from the South and not do or say anything.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:13 am
Rudy’s not credible on 2, 8 or 9. But he would probably do a good job with the rest.
As far as the poll, unfortunately it looks like Thompson has taken most of the soft support that Romney got the past few weeks. However on the bright side the anybody but McCain and Rudy factions of the party should be very happy. Rudy’s strategy on 2/5 is based on him being the national frontrunner and leading in polls even after sustaining early losses. I have a feeling if Fred can catch Rudy so easily that Rudy won’t be the national frontrunner come January. Instead he will be in a three-horse race with Thompson and Romney trailing closely, and probably in that order.
If you look at RCP’s trendlines, Thompson still draws mostly from McCain and Giuliani since Rasmussen has always been an outlier for Romney.
Also I don’t see anybody getting higher in the polls than where Rudy and Fred are now. I think 25% or so is going to be the cap until we get much closer to Jan. and until the alsorans get out of the way. I believe that by the end of the August the RCP average will be
Rudy 23%
Fred 21%
Mitt 17%
John 13%
and Romney will still be leading in Iowa and NH with Thompson in the lead in SC and tied with Rudy in FL.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:13 am
Adam, you forgot to also mention being a TV Star.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Adam,
It’s called desperation.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:16 am
I believe it is very unfair to not include all of the running candidates in favor of including people who are not even running yet. Let’s hear (and include in the polls) all of those currently in the running. To include someone who is not even in the race yet in favor of dropping those who ARE running shows bias and enrages me to the point where I don’t even trust the polls at all.
I am a supporter of Ron Paul and when I go out looking for poll results I find that he is not even included. What a shame for us all. How can you have a fair debate and fair coverage when the media seems to want to push those who don’t even have the courage to debate the others on the issues.
Let’s be fair. I don’t care about Newt or Fred because they are not even running. When they DO run then I will be happy to listen, but let’s not ignore the ones in the race.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:19 am
Well I agree with others on here that just as Rudy had “soft” support that couldn’t be sustained throughout the entire campaign the same thing will happen with Fred, especially since Hannity can’t be there to hold his hands over Fred’s lips everytime he says something off the cuff.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Is it too late for Rudy to change his mind again and compete in the Iowa caucuses? I think he will need to because Thompson is going to catch him in FL and the tie-breaker will be the momentum that Rudy doesn’t get from the early states.
Obviously Fredheads have to be ecstatic, but I feel a little bad for Thompson because this only adds to the hype and expectations that even Reagan himself couldn’t fulfill. It will be interesting to see how much Thompson slides back after people find out that he used to be pro-choice, that he is against tort-reform, that he is for Campaign Finance Reform and that he doesn’t have a good answer on any of them because apparently he can’t remember ever having those positions.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:30 am
He is competeing in the Iowa caucuses, not the straw poll.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:31 am
“Is it too late for Rudy to change his mind again and compete in the Iowa caucuses? I think he will need to because Thompson is going to catch him in FL ”
That isn’t anywhere near clear. You can make the case that that will happen in other southern states but there’s no evidence that it is a foregone conclusion in FL. Florida has grown tremendously in the past twenty years precisely from “snowbirds” from New York and the rest of the Northeast and (Thank God, I say) these folks don’t just vote in a knee-jerk way for a southernor, other attributes be damned. And as of now Giuliani still has a 15-point lead in the state. I think we all need to hold our collective wad on Thompson until he actually stops holding onto his mother’s skirt and gets on the schoolbus, so to speak.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Adam the vast majority of “snowbirds” are Democrats.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Econ,
A lot of them are, but a lot of them also are centrist Republicans that certainly would be much more open to Giuliani than Thompson.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:37 am
Dskinner: Rudy announced a 77-person Iowa team yesterday. You must’ve missed it here.
http://www.kcci.com/news/13481065/detail.html
June 12th, 2007 at 10:38 am
As a Romney supporter, I have to admit that this is the first time polls have had me nervous about his chances. Romney needs to keep his money lead in Q2 then fund a one-on-one debate with Thompson to determine who is going to be the favorite of Conservatives in the party. Thompson is the biggest danger to Romney at this point.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Econ,
Look at FL Governor Charlie Crist. He just won in the state in a very tough year and he sure doesn’t sound like your typical Old South Republican.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Kavon, I don’t care what the order of the top three is, but can we please move McCain to 4th in the power rankings?
1 - Rudy - He’s still leading in the national polls though not as much as before. Also he is still leading in FL so his strategy does have a reasonable probability of success, though IMO that probability is going to steadily decrease.
2 - Romney - He is leading in IA and NH and still trending up in polls. His success in executing his strategy whether you believe it will be successful or not, should teach everyone not to underestimate Mitt.
3 - Thompson - He certainly proved that there is a demand for a southern candidate. The question is how much of that very soft support will he be able to hold and will he gain any traction outside the South.
4 - McCain - He still has enough organization that as long as he doesn’t run out of money he would be able to win if the top three dropped out. My guess is that McCain may eventually have too much pride to continue campaigning when it becomes clear that his best hope is 4th place when a year ago he was sure he would be the next president.
5 - Huckabee - He separates himself from the 2nd tier through his personality, and while not enough to crap the top tier, it certainly is enough to earn him VP consideration. (IMO we should pick a non-nanny state VP and Huckabee should run for the Senate)
6 - Newt - Does anyone really believe he could win? Of course not but he will still be important in the race because his endorsement or tacid support could really help Romney or Giuliani who lack conservative bonafides, it also could cement make Thompson unbeatable in SC and FL and possibly nationally.
I hope that after Ames this is as far as we need to go because nobody else will be invited to debates. However, if we have to rank them it should look like this:
7 - Hunter
8 - Brownback
9 - Tancredo
10 - T. Thompson
11 - Gilmore
12 - Paul
June 12th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Matt, #9 - I agree with you assestment of Romney completely. As a Romney (and Rudy) guy, I believe this move “ever so slightly” to the center (where Romney is comfortable), showing executive compentence and managerial expertise, with conservative views, would make Romney much more electable.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Matt,
If Romney had never moved up in the last three Rasmussen polls would you still feel the same? I think Romney moved up a little faster than expected or planned because of the immigration bill. He is still in great shape relative to where he planned on being because his strategy has never been to capture the lead nationally, instead it has been to win early and build momentum which he still looks like he will be able to accomplish. Look at the RCP trendlines and you will see Romney still having a good chance because he is still up on the same slow but steady trendline.
David B,
What are those supporters going to do explain why social liberalism is okay and he is only skipping the straw poll because… oh yeah there is no good spin for that one. Rudy is in serious trouble in IA because he will bleed to Thompson even more there than nationally. Rudy’s best hope now is to withdraw completely and try to minimize the importance of the state while at the same time raising expectations for Romney.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Does anyone think it is odd that Fred Thompson is included in this poll when he is not even running? Fred Thompson is just the establishments answer to Ron Paul. If he get’s in the race he’s only going to take votes from the other candidates and give them to Ron Paul.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Jeremy
I don’t know why but when I imagine you I see a Ron Paul poster behind you with candles surrounding it as “Bump N’ Grind” from R Kelly plays in the background.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:59 am
I think the position that sets Romney apart from the other candidates
is strengthening marriage and the family, which the other candidates
pretty much ignore (see #6 above). A lot of the problems in our
government have to do with excessive spending because of the breakdown
of the family. When the family breaks down, the education, welfare,
healthcare, legal and economic systems are all taxed and
overburdened. Romney doesn’t have to pass any legislation to have
an influence here. Just having him as president and speaking to this
issue will have a beneficial effect. None of the other presidential
candidates can do this as effectively as Romney. I think James Dobson
realizes this, and after Fred has had his say and Dobson endorses Romney,
you will see his numbers go way up in the national polls.
June 12th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Dskinner #25,
FDT is so close to officially declaring now, that I think I’m going to wait to adjust the PR until the announcement has settled in a little bit.
Regarding McCain and the polls: Which ones do we believe? ARG? The others? I think too much is in flux now to make a change. That’s why I’m going to wait for the FDT announcement. I could see FDT leading in many STATE polls where he is not currently after he announces.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:01 am
Keven, pray tell, how is Romney going to come into our families and what is he going to do in our homes?
June 12th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Dskinner #25,
I think you are mistaken about McCain dropping out. I just don’t believe he’s the kind of guy who would do that.
And you have to remember that he now has 2 good friends in the race (Rudy and Fred). I think he will stay in the race even if it means that he is doing it just to hurt another candidate.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Kavon, please post Rudy’s 12 committments… I think they are very solid
June 12th, 2007 at 11:05 am
Well… I was going to write a post on it. Since it’s here in the comments now it seems kind of redundant.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:05 am
David B,
He will show a strong example of the Family being important…
and I’m not trying to dredge up ur strong feelings here, but this is one of Romney’s strong points.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:06 am
And how and why is his family such an important example?
June 12th, 2007 at 11:07 am
Well Dave, because he’s the only one that has a healthy one.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:07 am
I’m thinking of the history of the American Presidency and all the issues it dealt with. Was anybody’s family their main contribution? Even worth a footnote in public policy?
You Mormons are on a totally different planet. Unfit for the American Presidency.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:08 am
Don’t worry, this isn’t going to be another one of these threads… I have a new employee arriving shortly and will be busy with that.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:09 am
Dave, there are Mormons here?
June 12th, 2007 at 11:12 am
David B,
Compare it to Clinton’s (Bill) cheating, and tell me which leads to stronger homes.
And if you say the family isn’t important go ahead, Mitt & I just will disagree, and that’s what is great about America.
And Mitt won’t be remembered for his Family, but he will be for his strong stance in office on many issues
cutting the budget, fighting terror smartly, improving homeland security, further reforms, etc.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:14 am
Post it anyway Kavon…!
June 12th, 2007 at 11:15 am
David B,
one more thing.
The church claims to me the true church (You obviously disagree) with good values, etc.. This does not mean all the people in the church are perfect at all, hence why sites like the ones you have mentioned in the past exist.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Kavon,
agree with Rudy2008.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:17 am
“Well Dave, because he’s the only one that has a healthy one.”
EGS… That kind of comment should be beneath you. Who are you to judge who’s family is healthy?
John McCain’s family isn’t healthy? Why? You have a problem with his 2 young sons fighting in Iraq? How about the daughter that he and Cindy adopted from Bangladesh? What is “unhealthy” about that?
McCain and his first wife only knew each other for a few months before he was forced into a Vietnamese prison camp for 5 years. When he got back they just couldn’t make it work. That sounds sad to me, not “unhealthy”.
Fred Thompson was divorced for like 20 years before he remarried. Would you have the guts to look Fred and Jeri’s children in the eyes and tell them that their family is unhealthy?
It is exactly this kind of judgmental, holier-than-thou, “my family is better than yours” rhetoric that keeps millions of fiscally conservative but socially agnostic voters away from the Republican Party.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Kavon,
I agree…
Before you start hitting me.
The only people whose marraiges I’ve criticized on this site are Newt & Rudy, who had/ we can suspect of multiple affairs in multiple marriages & Bill’s (which is obvious)
Ronald Reagan was divorced. He may have been the greatest President since Lincoln.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:28 am
I would vote for all the candidates but Paul & Rudy in the Generals & Rudy’s Marriages are a not a main reason for not votung for him.
I am not sure about Fred yet, but he could be great or bad.
& for those who think of me as a RomneyBot, you know I don’ like Rudy b/c of his Social issues, & McCain has multiple political problems (immigration, Campaigbn Finance, perspective)…& Fred I talked about.
I’m glad, personally, I can support 1 od the top 4 instead of a second-tier in the primaries.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:29 am
All Mormons are categorically unfit for the presidency!!! Wow. David B, it wasn’t that long ago that many, many people would agree with this statement: “You homosexuals are on a totally different planet. Unfit for the American Presidency.” Both statements are equally ridiculous.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:30 am
Kavon, I’m not judging the candidates’ morally.
I’m just pointing out that of all the major candidates only one has been able to make it to this point without a divorce or marital infidelity.
That’s quite an accomplishment today and I think Romney would be a good example.
However I’m not making the argument the other candidates are somehow unqualified because they have unhealthy marital history. I especially admire John McCain and I’m certainly not making a back handed. insult.
I’m simply answering why Romney might be a good role model. He’s accomplish the now rare task of lifetime monogamy.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:41 am
EGS,
Your statements in #50 feel quite different than the value judgement you made in #38. Saying something is “unhealthy” is a pretty strong statement to make on one’s marriage and family.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Econ,
“Well Dave, because he’s the only one that has a healthy one.”
That’s backpedaling. If Mitt is the only candidate with a healthy family then by implication you must mean that other candidates’ familes aren’t healthy.
I don’t need Romney or anyone else to be a good example. If one needs to look to the president to persuade him to live a certain way then his problems are bigger than any politician can solve. I want my candidate to worry about crime, taxes, national defense and controlling illegal immigration.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:52 am
The meme up until now has been that Fred takes Rudy’s “soft” supporters.
That was true, but what those parroting it didn’t understand was that Rudy’s soft supporters are already gone. Rudy no longer accumulates 35-45 percent of the vote in polls of the GOP field the way he did for a moment in time earlier this year, and the quarter of the vote he’s left with are likely Rudy’s hard supporters, the folks who know his positions on the issues and are voting for him because of those positions or in spite of them.
As such, if Fred’s moving up, it either means he’s snagging undecideds, which means that no one else can snag them, which means that no one else can move up, or it means that he’s taking support from other candidates. We’re seeing the latter at play here in this poll.
June 12th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Insofar as current polls are accurately measuring Rudy’s support, I agree with DaveG that Rudy is near his nadir.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
#51 Kavon-
I regret the wording of #38 because it implied something I’m unable to determine: the health of the candidate’s current families/marriages.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
As once again demonstrated in the release of his diaries, President Reagan had a rather contentious relationship with his son, Ron, and daughter, Patti; arguably, moreso than the rift between Rudy Giuliani and his kids. And yet Reagan, to this day, remains the model by which nearly every Republican candidate seeks to emulate.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
dSkinner,
Yes. I never thought it was a particularly good idea for Romney to frame himself as “the conservative”. Given the liabilities of governing in Massachusetts, and his questionable (in the eyes of many voters) religion, it simply wasn’t going to be the sort of stable foundation necessary to capture the nomination. And it would certainly harm him in the general election, by detracting from one of his principle advantages: the notion that he’s a reasonable sort of guy, who governed in a deeply blue state, and is therefore capable of compromise. And I think the Romney campaign has picked up on that, relative to their early stumbles.
For the last few months, I’ve felt Mitt has been running as a competent, brilliant, managerial, candidate who happens to be conservative. He’s been emphasizing his social conservatism far more subtly, through things like the Five Brothers’ Blog, and through various family appearances. He mentions family values, and well he should, but it comes off much less forced. He’s being himself and it shows. And I think frankly, he should continue along this path.
It simply doesn’t make sense to try to out conservative Thompson in the South. They’re never going to trust a Massachusetts Mormon, more then they trust a good ole boy like Fred. Unless of course, Romney simply outclasses Fred in ways that go beyond ideology or cultural identity (competence, intelligence, attention to details, work ethic, etc.). Then the sort of natural personal conservatism evinced by Romney and his family, should be enough to pick off some red states (notably, again I think he NEEDS to go hard after South Carolina).
June 12th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Aron,
Do you think that one day, people will look back at Rudy and say “Who cares about adulterous affairs with paid staffers? Remember President Rudy?”
June 12th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Since we are looking at Rasmussen poll, new Rasmussen poll says–In New Jersey it is Bloomberg 32, Obama 32, Fred 20. Wow we can get 3rd in NJ right now. Keep your eyes on the general election ball.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Romney needs to keep his money lead in Q2 then fund a one-on-one debate with Thompson to determine who is going to be the favorite of Conservatives in the party.
Thompson would never agree to this.
Thompson is the biggest danger to Romney at this point.
That’s why.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
You Mormons are on a totally different planet. Unfit for the American Presidency.
You are a sick bigot, DaveB.
Editors, why do you allow comments like this to remain on the website? Why do you let DaveB. retain his posting privleges? I know that he supports Giuliani like you do, but he’s just not in your class at all. Giving him a forum makes Giuliani look bad.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
EGS,
No worries regarding your #38 post. I think most accept your explanation in #55.
The question is will David B recant this outlandish statement?
“You Mormons are on a totally different planet. Unfit for the American Presidency.”
I seriously doubt it.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
murphy,
Unless a President Giuliani is found dipping his cigars into an intern, or fails to remain faithful to Judi while they’re living in the White House together, the answer your question is a flat-out NO.
June 12th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
And I believe that EGS isn’t a Mormon and that Dave B. has been told that before. So in Dave B.’s mind, any social conservatism whatsoever is an excuse to fling his filth at Mormons.
June 12th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Henry, I’ve said before I’m Lutheran (to DaveB if I recall correctly).
June 12th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
I also wonder to myself how far DavidB can push the envelope. It seems anti-Mormon rants and links to anti-Mormon literature is to be tolerated around here.
I wonder how I would be dealt with if I proposed forbidding Jews or blacks from the Presidency, or put up links to websites highly critical of members of those demographics.
June 12th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
murphy,
or people with 1 divorce or more, as egs was reprimanded for in this thread.
cwpete,
I wonder what happens when/if he comes back to this thread.
June 12th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Debate or not, the offer does the same thing. Is there anyone here who honestly thinks Thompson could beat Romney in a one-on-one debate? He can’t criticize Romney on flip flops, becuase Thompson has some of his own position changes. He’s not as charismatic, or as energetic. He has voted on issues in opposition to the Republican position. Here are the two situations:
1) They debate, Romney wins, and can use it to show he is better than Thompson.
2) Mitt Challenges Fred to a deabte, Fred Refuses, and Mitt can use it to show Thompson is afraid to put himself up against Romney. It makes Romney look confident and sure of his positions, and makes Fred look weak and afraid of challende.
Its a no-win for Fred Thompson, and the smartest move Romney can make in the short-term.
June 12th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
JasonJack:
Nothing happens when he comes back, and Mr. David B always comes back. As much as I dislike some of his postings, he does says some thoughtful things occasionally. He also serves a purpose by illustrating how Romney’s faith is an obstacle in this campaing. I don’t think that there are many David B’s out there, but there are a few no doubt. His rantings can’t endear many to his side, if anything the opposite takes place.
Murphy,
I sarcastically responded to one of his anti-Mormon rants with “we’ll see how far I can get with tarring homosexuals in the same manner.” He responded something to the like of go ahead & try, we’ll see how far you can get. He’s right, it is politically acceptable to bash one demographic but not the others. Al Sharpton just showed us recently how true that still is.
June 12th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Matt A,
You’re forgetting Scenario 3: Fred debates Mitt, all the southern GOPers see a guy who talks like them, and Fred moves up even higher in the polls.
Cultural identity is worth its weight in gold in politics. Fred could be caught performing a gay marriage at an abortion clinic between two illegal immigrants and he’d still beat every other GOPer in every southern state save Florida. That’s just the way it works, and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
I think that would be a risk worth taking - I don’t think either can win if they both stay in the race. One has to come out on top, and the other needs to either fall to like 2% in the polls or drop out. Its is extremely dangerous for both to remain in the race.
Cultural identity is important, but you have to remember that Thompson has been divorced, remarried a woman much younger than himself, is against tort reform, is borderline pro-abortion, and has made past statements that seem to be in favor of legalization of illegals. Cultural identity is important, but it may not be as important if Romney comes off as more inline with Southern Values, more charismatic, and more Presidential. Ronald Reagan unseated Carter (himself a Southern Christian) even though he was from a Liberal state about as far from the South as you can get.
I think Romney would do well, and I think it is a debate worth having.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
A bit of hyperbola there DaveG.
You know Southerners would draw the line a bit before the “performing gay marriage at an abortion clinic between two illegal immigrants”.
But if you look at how easily people accept Fred’s “I’ve always been pro-life” shtick you do start to see the Southern favoritism.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Perhaps they accept it, but perhaps they are not aware of his current position (which is not entirely pro-life), and perhaps they are not aware of his past statements. It took three or four months for a majority of Southerners to find out about Rudy’s positions.
June 12th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
#67 JasonJack, I never mentioned forbidding divorcees from the Presidency. I mentioned not having been divorced as an asset. I didn’t exactly express it clearly as the critical comments above show.
June 12th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Matt-A
You forget that FDT was considered one of the 100 best trial lawyers in the country. Also, one of Romney’s biggest problems in the south is that he seems to talk right over the heads of them. He doesn’t speak the language. It’s a problem. Rudy knows how to do this, that is why he would be a formidable opponent to anyone from outside the region here. People genuinely like Rudy. People genuinely like Thompson. Neither would roll over and play dead in a debate, and I’ve seen Thompson’s debates from 1994, and he was excellent.
(No Jason, I’m not paying 50 bucks to get them transfered to Youtube so you can analyze every word, then cut and paste them all up like Ron Paul’s fan club)
June 12th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Tommy, if memory serves, Jason offered to pay you the fees it would cost to get the debates onto YouTube.
June 12th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
[...] you may already know, not one but two polls are showing Fred Thompson with a strong and growing presence in the national Republican [...]
June 12th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
I actually think 39 was adressed to me.