GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Much has been written about the meteoric rise of Fred Thompson over the past several months. In particular, a lot of (proverbial) ink has been spilled with odes that designate him a “White Knight” savior-politician who will rescue the Republican party from political catastrophe in 2008. I initially scoffed at the ridiculousness of this notion. It struck me as the wistful yearnings of conservatives who were unsatisfied with the Mayor, the Maverick and the Mormon and a boomlet that was sure to burst sooner rather than later. Well, 3 months after his name began to be seriously floated by his partisans and sympathizers, it appears that contrary to bursting, Thompson’s candidacy has dealt a big blow to each of the Big Three.
Rudy: His effect on Rudy has been the most evident and least surprising. Almost every poll that includes Thompson showing him take up a significant portion (10-15%) of Rudy’s supporters. Rudy’s own advisers had argued for months before he finally jumped in the race that his numbers were artificially inflated by 9/11 and would inevitably come down. The conventional wisdom at the time was that as soon as he announced and the media reported on his liberal positions on abortion, guns and gays he would drop like a rock. I think it was Charlie Cook who said that he would be shocked if Rudy stayed in the race past the summer. As always though, the conventional wisdom was too conventional.
It didn’t understand the bond that Rudy had formed with the base and viewed him simply as a generic Republican. So even when informed of his socially liberal stances, the voters still picked him over the consistently pro-life John McCain and the newly-but, secretly, always (or something) pro-life Mitt Romney. The base stayed with Rudy because they viewed him as a leader whose star shown through on that dark day. So, Rudy’s reign wouldn’t be toppled by an ordinary (more orthodox) Republican. Instead, the soft supporters who were turned off by Rudy’s social stances, but still dissatisfied with McCain or Romney, bolted Rudy when they were given the option to vote for Thompson. This was because they were attracted to the ultra-leader type qualities that both Rudy and Thompson exude, but were far more comfortable with the latter’s Southern conservative bonafides. The good news for Rudy is that while he has lost his astronomical lead over his competition (he lead by as much as 25 points above his closest competitor, John McCain, a few months ago), he still leads all comers by 10 points according to the latest RCP average.
Romney: Thompson’s effect on Romney is less obvious, but potentially disastrous for the Governor. In short, Thompson is the candidate that Mitt Romney has tried in vain to become for the past year, the Credible Conservative Alternative. After all, if Mitt had been successful in courting conservatives and hadn’t been bogged down in the flip flopping muck, there wouldn’t have been any reason for a Thompson candidacy. Indeed, Fred has scooped up many a skeptical conservative that Mitt had been hoping to land. But that’s not the only problem that Mitt faces. Close observers have noted for some time how weak he is polling in the South compared to other parts of the country. This isn’t particularly surprising given that candidates from the Northeast (especially Massachusetts) always seem to underperform in the South. But now with the addition of Fred to the race, he has managed to undercut Mitt’s support even further. But what’s Mitt to do about Fred? He can’t very well attack Fred for changing his positions in order to run for President without opening himself up to the same types of attacks (has anyone seen Flip Romney the Dolphin lately?) In the comments yesterday, longtime commenter and Mitt supporter Matt says:
With Fred eating into his support in the South, his team’s first instinct would clearly be to move right. But, I think this would be a dreadful mistake. He’s not going to out conservative, a southern conservative messiah. What’s more, Romney’s simply not credible as the most conservative person in the room. But he is credible as the most competent. And the smartest. What Romney needs to do now, is move ever so slightly towards the center, and play the competent, brilliant, outsider, who just so happens to be fairly conservative on most issues.
Matt adds that instead of attacking Fred’s inconsistencies over the years, he should go after Fred’s competence.
This is a fascinating idea, but I doubt it would work. Well, let me rephrase that, it might work, but I doubt Mitt could actually pull it off as he’s not that talented of a politician. And what does “moving to the center” mean? Would Mitt shift his positions again? That would just make matters so much worse. Remember that the void that Thompson is filling is on the right, not the center (don’t McCain and Rudy have that space held and highly fortified by now?). If Mitt just concedes the right flank to him, Thompson just consolidate his support more. But I do agree with Matt that Romney can’t run to the right either because no one is going to out conservative Fred Thompson. As the savior of the Republican party, Thompson has managed to swat away all attacks thus far. In that regard, Thompson is very much like Barack Obama. No matter what dirt gets flung at him, it all slides off. That’s why I don’t think even if Romney attacks Fred’s extreme lack of experience, questionable executive competence and much rumored laziness, that it will not have much of an effect. The result would effectively squeeze Romney between Rudy and McCain a bit to his left and Fred, Brownback, Gilmore and Huckabee to his right.
McCain: Thompson’s effect on McCain’s candidacy is a mixed bag, more negative than positive though. This doesn’t get nearly as much discussion as it should, but it’s important to understand what a personal slap in the face his candidacy is to McCain. He and McCain were the closest of friends in politics for years: they sat next to each other in the Senate, Thompson was a key co-sponsor to McCain-Feingold, Thompson endorsed McCain over George Bush in 2000 and as recently as 4 months ago, Thompson was making calls to donors on behalf of McCain’s campaign. Thompson then turns around and jumps in the race.
Aside from the personal aspect, it remains to be seen whether Thompson will hurt McCain’s nomination chances. His support has stayed remarkably stable even with the Thompson’s name on the ballot, but that is most likely due to the fact that McCain supporters, as a whole, are very committed and there is very little soft support like Rudy has. And yet, the two’s politics are very similar, despite having extremely different personalities. Thompson could lure away some of McCain’s strong organization. This was on display the other day with the defection of a McCain fundraiser and longtime supporter, John Dowd, to Fred Thompson’s camp. (Note: Ed Morissey talked to the McCain camp and reported that “Fred Thompson campaign has already started chatting with McCain’s fundraisers, but so far have only Dowd to show for the effort. They expect Fred’s team to continue to sound out their donor list, but feel pretty confident that he won’t get many takers.”) Also, if Thompson and Romney start to really battle it out, it could provide an opening for McCain.
With all that said, what can be done about the Thompson boomlet? The Politico provides a few clues as to the strategy that the rival campaigns are developing in order to take Fred out (or at the very least down a few notches. However, taken as a whole, it’s just exceedingly weak opposition research:
One thing is for sure, Fred Thompson will have a huge effect on the race for 2008.
June 13th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
Nice analysis, LJ.
June 13th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
LJ, you’re a strong backer of McCain-Feingold?
June 13th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Time will tell… I’m not nearly as worried about him as I used to be.
June 13th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Great post and objective analysis.
June 13th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
Actually, Thompson has issues with Abortion, he opposes Roe v. Wade, but seems to have no opinion at the state level, even making comments in the past (near the time of the Romney-Kennedy Debate) that “the abortion decision must be made by a woman.” - that is not going to fly with Evangelicals and Conservatives.
Thompson will have problems, just wait. His positions are not the most conservative, he has essentially zero executive experience, and was a big tiem Washington insider. Thompson is going to have to do more than play the “southern card” if he wants to win - if all the race needed was a Southern Conservative, Brownback would have been a leader LONG ago.
Thompson is big on name, alright on style, but lacks huge in substance. We will have to see if Thompson can weather the gathering stom against him. Thats when we will know if this is a solid support block or simply a media-hyped bubble. It is extremely possible that articles like the one below may sink Thompson:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19140623/site/newsweek/
June 13th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Thompson may soon have to swim a few laps like Paul Tsongas, or something. He just doesn’t look like the same guy as the one in his decades-old movie appearances, and he can’t always be lit and miked like Arthur Branch. The constant, possibly cigar-related throat-clearing as on Leno last night and in other live appearances, aside from being annoying, feeds into a too-old/lazy/low-energy/questionable health issue, and tends to suggest he’s filling space when he doesn’t know an answer. I’m not putting this forward as a hit on FDT, just suggesting that his actual “game” may what determines whether his bubble bursts or solidifies. If he fails, people may argue over a thousand different alternative explanations (how about too many Mary Matalin insiders over-cooking his pot after joining up out of friendship?), but it’ll come down to how the man comes across.
June 13th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
LJ,
My point wasn’t that Romney should concede the right flank to Thompson. Wuite the contrary. But, I don’t think, and this sounds counterintuitive, that Romney can substantially weaken Thompson’s conservative support through actual issues. If on the one hand, Romney tries to seem more conservative then Fred, he’s simply going to have the same sort of credibility problems he seems to finally be escaping from. And if, on the other, he tries to question Thompson’s conservative bonafides, he doesn’t seemingly have much to gain, and quite a bit to lose. Thompson’s supporters obviously like Thompson more then the they like Mitt. And given that they’re among the people who were most skpetical of Romney’s conservatism, attacking Fred isn’t likely to persuade any of his supporters. Indeed, it’s only likely to turn them against Mitt. Which would be disastrous for his candidacy, because when Thompson starts to return to earth, or if he fades entirely, Romney’s not likely to be the principal beneficiary if there’s serious animosity between the two camps. There’s really no benefit to Romney going directly after Thompson.
Romney cuts into Thompson’s conservative support by cutting into all of his support. That is to say, Romney needs to mkae Thompson increasingly less credible, as a candidate, to the entire electorate. For instance, I see Romney employing this strategy already. He’s taken to joking that “the fans of Law and Order will be hurt most by Thompson’s entry”. He’s also said, quite a few times, when asked what he thinks of Thompson, something like “I don’t know him very well, but he seems like a great guy. We see him busting bad guys on TV every week after all”. He thus pigeonholes Thompson as the “actor”, without directly attacking him. He even manages to sound good-natured while saying it. And as this is continually subtly raised, and as Thompson gives more thoroughly unimpressive performances, like last night’s Leno appearance, people will begin to ask “just how serious is this guy?” And the word “lightweight” will come to mind a bit more readily.
So for my money, Mitt needs to play the smartest, most competent guy in the room, subtly insinuating that Thompson can’t quite be taken seriously, while remaining generally coridal to Thompson and his supporters. As for what I mean by moving towards the center, I simply think he needs to frame a few positions slightly softer. For instance, he recently implied he wouldn’t like to see a long-term occupation of Iraq. He’s also recently put out statements, or conducted significant interviews, encouraging Republicans to tackle universal health care, energy independence, and competition with Asia. His platform isn’t actually changing, because he’s been saying “we want are troops out of Iraq as soon as possible” for 8 months, and he’s always been pretty clear that health care, competition with Asia, and energy independence were priorities for him. But, he’s now simply talking about a broader spectrum of his issues, which makes him look more moderate.
I think this is the best strategy for him, because Romney has a pretty clear path towards becoming cstrong conservatives’s number two choice after Fred. He’s personally lived a spotless life, has a great family (which he showcases at every opportunity), and is conservative on all of the major issues. If Thompson falls, and Romney is seen as smart, competent, and conservative, he’ll be their guy.
June 13th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
[...] “The Thompson Effect [...]
June 13th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
Fred’s age does not bother me in fact I think that it gives him the appearance of gravitas. But one way he might counteract any misperceptions or misgivings about his health and vitality and former illness is to take a page out of Romney’s book and utilize his family as a backdrop more often. FDT is the only GOP candidate with infant children. I think that FDT should take every opportunity to be seen holding his two infants, maybe even be seen changing a diaper or two…this I think would infuse the perception of him with more youthfullness as a new Dad and loving spouse.
June 13th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
#9: I would love to see more pictures of “Grandpa” Fred with his infant children.
June 13th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
$1.3 Mil over 20 years? That’s about $65K a year. I don’t see that as a massive issue.
June 13th, 2007 at 5:46 pm
murphy,
I wouldn’t say I’m a strong backer (I dislike one or two provisions), but on the whole, I am a supporter.
Tommy,
Thanks. I actually expected worse from you. Heh.
Matt-A and CK,
You should click the first link on this post. You’re echoing a lot of my thoughts.
Matt,
That’s a lot to chew on. Let me digest it and get back to you.
June 13th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Thompson’s the Great Southern Hype.
June 13th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Hello, all-
As you can see, I really liked this piece, which is why it’s trackbacked to my Tower new-media site above. Here are some of my own general observations on FDT and how he’s destabilizing the nomination process:
1) Although his presence could decisively swing the nomination, I don’t think that FDT himself can win.
Let’s forget who he is and look at it from a hyperrational perspective:
Can a candidate - in the 21st century - jump into a presidential race in the summer of the preceding year? Maybe if he was a billionaire who could buy a top-notch organization and not have to waste time and energy raising money. Or if there’s a big-time celebrity (let’s say if Arnold was eligible), where you could count on free media cascading over the candidate. But outside of those parameters…
Virtually all of the top fundraisers, campaign strategists, media wizards, party organizations, and grassroots soldiers in Iowa/NH/SC are already signed on with other candidates. (There will be an occasional person who defects, as we’re seeing - but hordes of campaign activist/staff are not going to depart en masse from their campaign, unless the campaign implodes completely.) He has no money and not enough personal wealth to even partially self-finance his campaign. It’s too late. Had he decided to do this a little earlier - maybe. But not now.
Let’s put it this way - McCain was pilloried for “only” raising $12.5 million last quarter. How can you win when you start in June with nothing?
2) I absolutely agree that it’s a shocking turn of events vis-a-vis McCain - and LJ accurately noted that the MSM have seemed remarkably indifferent to it. I’ll add to his list that FDT was not only one of just four Senate Republicans who supported McCain in 2000 - he was his national co-chair! (He’s got a raft of speeches around talking about what a tremendous president McCain would be.)
3) As a political junkie - I think FDT’s entry is interesting, because it wasn’t expected when the Big Three were originally plotting their strategies (although, of course, it’s been expected for a couple of months, now). I don’t necessarily think that it hurts any one of them in particular - I basically agree w/ LJ that it hurts Rudy in terms of polling, McCain in donors/organization, and Romney in the South and with social conservatives he was trying to court (overlapping groups). Let’s say for the sake of argument, that it hurts all of them equally.
Accordingly, there’s another candidate to share the free media with, competing for donors that haven’t yet previously been identified, etc., etc.
4) FDT’s entry really consumes the oxygen, for any of the second-tier candidates. As long as there was the dominance of the Big Three (all of whom were unacceptable to some degree to the hardest of the right), there was a prayer that say, Huckabee, might do well somewhere, attract some free media, etc. - and you never know. (Nobody thought McCain would be the one to catch fire in 2000…)
So IMHO the biggest effect of this will be not so much the dynamic of the newly expanded top-tier, but the fact that FDT’s entry has probably wrecked whatever morale there was with the smaller candidates. If somebody implodes, FDT is ready to scoop up the pieces. And he also fills the “something new to talk about” over the course of a long campaign - the only real hope of a longshot candidate.
Comments are welcome.
The Tower: Surveying the Political World from High Above, published by Campaignia.org
http://tower.campaignia.org
June 13th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
LJ and Matt, you are what make this site great! I appreciate your indepth analysis and thoughts. Thanks!
June 14th, 2007 at 10:06 am
[...] “The Thompson Effect Much has been written about the meteoric rise of Fred Thompson over the past several months. In particular, a lot of (proverbial) ink has been spilled with odes that designate him a “White Knight” savior-politician who will rescue the Republican party from political catastrophe in 2008. I initially scoffed at the ridiculousness of this notion. It struck me as the wistful yearnings of conservatives who were unsatisfied with the Mayor, the Maverick and the Mormon and a boomlet that was sure to burst sooner rather than later. Well, 3 months after his name began to be seriously floated by his partisans and sympathizers, it appears that contrary to bursting, Thompson’s candidacy has dealt a big blow to each of the Big Three [...]